Mailbag: Ojemudia Redshirt, Triple Option, Rodriguez At Alabama Alternate Universe Comment Count

Brian

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1: pew pew pew  2: a man Al Borges isn't 3: an alternate universe

Ojemudia redshirt?

I think there is no way Mario O plays.  A ton of guys could be put on field before him.  Several combos could fill the WDE spot better, eg Ryan-Cam Gordon combo puts our best, or at least most experienced, backup on the field, Ryan-Avery is similar, or how about flip back Roh for a Roh-Brink/Heitzman/Wormley/Black(?) replacement.  Given how important a redshirt could be to Mario, I would think coaches will be creative.  

-Dirk

I agree with you philosophically. Ojemudia should get a redshirt. I get frustrated when certain players have theirs burned for what seems like no reason. I'm with you, man. But… I don't see how he doesn't get on the field if Clark's issues are severe.

The problem with the above scenarios is that they reduce Michigan's specialization by flipping guys around and they still leave Michigan an injury from putting Ojemudia on the field. Is that injury reasonably likely? Yeah. So it seems to make more sense to leave Ryan at SLB full time, where he is still getting a grasp on all the particulars, and Roh at SDE, where he needs every snap he can get to figure out how to deal with his size limitations. The immediate payoff here seems real, and given the way Michigan is recruiting they figure they will be able to insert a Taco Charlton or 2014 kid into the lineup when Ojemudia graduates without losing too much. Of course, Mattison just told everyone that he was comfortable with the idea of Ryan at WDE in practice and proclaimed his faith in Cam Gordon's ability, so what do I know?

But even with that move, you're still juggling just three players between two positions. That's not tenable. If the coaches know Clark is going to be back relatively promptly, then I can see holding Ojemudia out the first couple games and getting him the redshirt. If Clark's out until Notre Dame or later, I think you have to blood Ojemudia and worry about the consequences in the distant future.

Triple option?

Brian,

This may be a non feasible idea, but why not kill two birds with one stone by creating a triple option package for Denard and company? Everyone says its really hard to prepare for Air Force, and we could prepare our defense while surprising the crap out of Alabama. Think about it, our RB, FB, QB combo are familiar with zone reads and are a lot better than any combo air force will ever have. We surprised Ohio with the inverted veer last year, and Bama's young defense won't know what hit 'em.

In addition, I can't help but think kicking and coverage teams, plus Denard's (hopefully) reduction in interceptions will make up for the fortunate 80% fumble recovery rate. The special teams will likely improve with the influx of talent and depth we are getting, or negated by rule changes. Either way its a net gain for Michigan in special teams.

Jim

Unfortunately I think we have to file that under "not feasible." Triple option is not something you can go into halfway. Hell, Michigan's speed option last year was mostly a Denard run off-tackle that had little if any chance of getting to the tailback. The one time Denard pitched it was a fumble caused when a blitzing linebacker met him after he'd taken one step playside. While it had the excellent benefit of keeping defenses honest and shooting Denard into secondaries, calling it an "option" is being generous.

Adding a true triple option and trying to get him to better understand Borges's West Coast passing attack is way too much to bite off in one fall camp. Since Borges is what he is, he's going to do what he does, and that's get Denard to throw more accurate balls that are less frequently intercepted.

The inverted veer is a different business because it's a handoff. The worst thing that happens there is you make the wrong decision and you eat some yardage. We almost saw the worst thing with the option last year, and that's the last thing an offense trying to cut down on turnovers needs.

IN RE: making up for fewer fumbles recovered. I'm not sure the special teams will be much better than last year except in the realm of punting. Gibbons is still Gibbons, kick returns just got nerfed, and it's damn hard to have an impact punt return game these days what with everyone spread-punting their way to seven gunners. Punting should be better because Hagerup will either get his foot on straight or a quick hook for the steady Wile, but we're talking a few yards a game.

The interceptions, sure. Denard's interception rate dropped over the tougher second half of the year and he should improve somewhere between noticeably and spectacularly in year two with Borges. That still leaves Michigan treading water even in the most optimistic turnover scenario, and the schedule has taken a turn for the bear-like.

brian,

pre-bama thought experiment. in december of 2006, alabama offers rich rodriguez their head coaching job. he accepts. what happens to both alabama and michigan from then on?

trippwelborneID

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Well, let's start with Alabama. They struggle through an RR-at-WVU transition year probably a little bit worse than their initial 6-6 Saban year, with Star Jackson taking over for the Bama bangs QBs midseason. Jackson doesn't end up transferring to nowheresville and becomes something like Pat White but probably not as good. No one gives six hundredths of a crap about the academics of RR's incoming recruits or Rita's jaguar pants, but RR probably still makes his fatal "I don't need Casteel that badly" error. With a somewhat more secure powerbase and money-providing demons, he does not hire GERG on try #2 and cycles through one of the then-available proven SEC DCs (Jon Chavis, for example).

This plus the better fit with his recruiting makes his defense not the worst ever assembled at the school he's coaching. He gets his QB a year earlier and has considerably better talent than he inherited at Michigan. He's replacing a total loser, one of many such since Bear. He does at least okay, probably pulls off an SEC title game or two, maybe wins it once, and sees a BCS bid or two.

He's probably still at Alabama in a Pelini-esque state: decent success, the fanbase is relatively happy with him, but they'll start to sour after a subpar year and two means you're out, buddy.

Meanwhile, Michigan finds itself adrift in the middle of the Les Miles/Bill Martin boat thing without a seemingly A-list candidate willing to jump. At that point I have no idea what they do. At the time I was muttering about how Jim Grobe mutterings were just the worst. Ferentz was out, Schiano was out, Miles was out, and Tedford was seemingly uninterested. Michigan clearly had no idea where to go, whereupon Rodriguez fell into their lap.

large_826umqbs[1]If Rodriguez is not there… does it matter? I'm not sure it matters. Lloyd was not Bo but he did have an impressive winning percentage, a national title, and the continuation of a record bowl streak. Would a pro-style coach have been able to turn Threet/Sheridan/no OL/nobody at all into a bowl appearance? I don't think so. At that point you're working from behind the eight ball and you have to be really fantastic to pull yourself out of that tailspin. Would Hoke have survived that? I doubt it; at that point his resume was a bunch of .500 seasons at Ball State. Would any outsider Michigan could have acquired have managed to hang on? Maybe by another year or two.

Even if we have no clue about who takes the reins in RR's absence in 2008, we can hazard a guess at their fate: similar hammering by OSU, flameout in 3-5 years, replacement. That's the way of things whenever you replace a legend, and if Carr wasn't a legend (debatable) he was definitely the continuation of Bo. It would have taken a truly A-level coach to not bomb out with no quarterbacks and no safeties and no offensive line, and it didn't look like any were available.

In the end, both programs are probably happy with the way things turned out. Alabama's case: duh. Michigan's: Rodriguez was such a terrible fit that Michigan rejected it in three years, at which point Hoke was just plausible enough to show up and shock everyone by doing everything right for going on 18 months.

Comments

micheal honcho

August 9th, 2012 at 8:31 AM ^

Get ready to be bombed with statistics about how TOP means nothing. Meanwhile, in the real world the NFL hires Harbaugh and he goes to the NFC championship in is 1st year after leading Stanford to BCS bowls and wins over USC at the height of its dominance. Still waiting for the NFL to call RR or Chip Kelly. My money says the NFL will be calling Hoke before either of those 2. They must not put much stock in statistics up there those fools.

I personally LOVED watching RR yell at Tate to "hurry up" when it was 3rd and 8, like he wanted to hurry up and give them the ball back. Hell I once saw RR yelling at the field goal team to hurry up, rolling his hand in that manner we all became familiar with. You know, its not like actually MAKING the damn field goal is what's most important, just go FAST!!

Needs

August 9th, 2012 at 10:10 AM ^

1. Kelly had an offer to coach Tampa Bay this offseason that he turned down.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7492379/chip-kelly-oregon-ducks-passes-tampa-bay-buccaneers-offer

 

2. Harbaugh's 49ers team had an average ToP advantage of 2 minutes. They spent an average of 3% more time on offense than defense. Do you really think that contributed, in any meaningful way, to their successful season, as opposed, say, to their +28 turnover margin. 

I'm not a ToP absolutist. I do think defenses can get tired out, particularly on the d-line, and that it's valuable to keep the other team's defense on the field in certain situations. But it's way down the line for reasons for winning. The statistical study summarized here found no correlation between ToP and winning football games.

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/02/sports-for-dorks-and-missing-ingredient-in-football/

 

micheal honcho

August 9th, 2012 at 10:40 AM ^

Forgot about the Buc's talking to Chip. He has done a great job with his system at Oregon and IMHO should get accolades for it. That said Harbaugh still got the sweet deal with San Fran because what he did with Stanford was even more impressive given the academic disadvantages & the team he was given personel wise when he took over. His system & methods transfer to the NFL better than Chip or RR's but its not simply because of TOP, its because he emphasizes defense & ball control. Minimizing the turnovers is of capital importance at the highest levels of football, however turnover margin does not happen by accident.

The problem with analyzing TOP is that it is misleading. It is not of utmost importance that you win the TOP battle. It is of utmost importance that you dont lose it by a mile. So if you lumped all the teams that keep TOP within a safe margin, say +- 5% vs. teams that consistenly lose in that catagory by greater than say 10% it would be a more accurate picture. Also I think you have to evaluate that at both levels of football to get a true picture. In CFB there are so many outright mismatches that are played every year whereby the much better team can let off the gas with a lead and thereby give the opponent opportunities that, in an evenly matched game, they would not get. Alabama vs. LSU or Oklahoma vs. Texas is alot more like an NFL game than Oregon vs. Washington, meaning all the "little things" count much more(TOP, turnover margin, special teams, starting field position) where in the many mismatch games the better team can overcome all of these and still win. These matchups factor into the statistical analysis and skew the resulting data IMHO.

Remember the old saying about statistics being like a bikini, while they reveal alot they also conceal some very important things.

Needs

August 9th, 2012 at 10:54 AM ^

It would be interesting to see a comparison of winning % at different ToP differentials. I do think your general impression that you don't want to be at the extreme negative side is probably correct, but it would be interesting to see at what differentials it seems to become important, how important it is, and how it compares to other markers (yardage, turnovers, etc).

On Kelly, I was curious to see how his system would translate to the NFL, since it doesn't rely as much as the Meyer and Rodriguez spreads on a running QB. I think his emphasis on tempo would actually work very well, because so much NFL defense has become very dependent on specialty packages and Kelly's tempo shifts could really play havoc with those subsitution patterns. (It would also serve as a case study of how important ToP is). The main barriers he might face is the sense of his offense as a gimmick and his need for pretty mobile linemen when a lot of NFL linemen become less mobile as they age.

micheal honcho

August 9th, 2012 at 4:36 PM ^

That and the primodonna's and diva's that play WR in the NFL would not commit to his system because it would cost them numbers and thereby $$$. He would need several(3) QB's and roll them consistently to utilize the running threat that, while not as prevalent as RR's, still needs to be a threat to make his system work.

The tempo thing would be interesting to see NFL d-coordinators manage. Would they implicitly tell their D lineman to get up slow and keep the O guys pinned down as long as possible, fake alot of injuries etc.??

The underlying philosophy of that offense is get playmakers loose in space. In the NFL the defenses are just so much faster then in CFB that I suspect it would be no more or less successfull than the previous run & shoot etc. Problem is that in the NFL you cannot sacrifice QB accuracy, timing and overall passing ability for mobility. If a guy can't make all the throws they quickly figure out which one's he can't and adjust to the D's advantage.

Mr. Yost

August 9th, 2012 at 8:35 AM ^

Ryan played some WDE last year. He wasn't going to be a full time SLB this year even if Clark was playing every game.

Ryan is a Bobby Carpenter clone if you ask me. Here's to hoping Joe Bolden is AJ Hawk.

Mr. Yost

August 9th, 2012 at 8:38 AM ^

Really? You're going to install a completely new offense for one game and to prepare for another?

And in the fall when you're installing what you plan on running for the other 11 games on the schedule?

#dobetter

Sidenote, Denard is AWFUL at the option going left, he's afraid to pitch with his left hand and has poor footwork. He may have worked on it all summer, but last year he didn't trust his pitch. He can barely do it going right. I doubt we run much option unless it's handing off to Gardner on a Jet Sweep and letting him run it.

Needs

August 9th, 2012 at 9:52 AM ^

Just to reinforce the first point ... you know who installed two completely different offenses in preseason? 

Charlie Weis, in 2007. And he ditched the zone-read offense halfway through their first game. (Miss you big guy). 

Mr. Yost

August 9th, 2012 at 8:43 AM ^

Two words: Ryan Mallett.

If Michigan brings a pro-style coach with a offensive pedigree or an offensive coordinator with pedigree, Mallett stays. If it was 2011 Hoke and Borges...Mallett stays, no question. Hoke would've walked from Cali to Ann Arbor, Borges would've walked to Arkansas to get Mallett if he had to. But Ryan has openly said he wouldn't have left if Rich Rod would've recruited him to stay and/or if the offense fit his skill set.

The Rich Rod years go much different if Mallett plays for 4 years and it's a pro-style system. Adrian Arrington may have also stayed. Donovan Warren would've certainly been around, particularly if the head coach was Ron English or if the new coach kept English around aka Urban Meyer/Luke Fickell.

Needs

August 9th, 2012 at 9:56 AM ^

Would English have been interested in staying on as defensive coordinator? He did interview for head coach (even if it was a perfunctory interview) and was turned down. 

It was probably better for his career that he moved on. If he can build on what he did last year at EMU, he's going to start to get some bigger offers.

M-Wolverine

August 9th, 2012 at 2:06 PM ^

It probably wasn't likely. But of all the people that might have been a good idea for Rich to keep, I don't blame him for not keeping English. You can't keep a guy who applied for the same job you got. And I'm not sure it works out any better for English with all of Rich's buddies than it did for Shafer. But if it had been feasible for him to keep the whole defensive staff Rich would probably still be coach here today.

Smash Lampjaw

August 9th, 2012 at 12:07 PM ^

did not long for a more high risk offense after the Lloyd years, and for a coach who could get the most out of our talent (think Tom Brady)? Had RR worked out as we had hoped he would, that would thave been the perfect balm to our post-06 wounds. Alas, we had more suffering to come than we knew, and needed to become more thankful for simple things, like defense.