Mailbag: Air Force Scheduling Dispute, Why Freshman WRs Are Bad, 2013 Feels, Vanilla, Hummus

Mailbag: Air Force Scheduling Dispute, Why Freshman WRs Are Bad, 2013 Feels, Vanilla, Hummus

Submitted by Brian on September 27th, 2017 at 3:26 PM

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27-24 man, it's tight against the Falcons

AIR FORCE SCHEDULING DISPUTE

Q: Isn't this why you DO schedule Air Force?

- The service-academy factor at least makes it more of an "event" game than, say, UNLV or Bowling Green.

- Gives both offense and defense experience reacting on the fly in a real game to unusual scheming.

- You're still probably going to win—and if you don't, is there really a situation in which a team is good enough to make the Playoff but for having lost to Air Force?

BML

The first point is almost certainly why Brandon scheduled this game. There were parachutists and a flyover and some military band guys at halftime, which is fine as far as it goes.

The second point is where I have an objection. Michigan installed an option-specific defense for this game and repped it hundreds of times. All of that effort is now mostly wasted. I'm sure there's some salutary effect from having triple option burned into your head, but it's probably minor compared to getting that many reps in against the kind of things Michigan will see from Wisconsin, PSU, and OSU.

And while a loss to Air Force is not particularly likely for a top-level team, college football programs do gain and lose recruiting momentum based on wins and losses even when you're in the kind of down year that could lead to an upset. And Air Force is consistently dangerous. Since 2010, they've has beaten Boise twice. They scared the pants off a 12-2 Big 12 Champ Oklahoma. They outgained MSU's playoff team by over 100 yards but lost because they were –3 in TOs. And they nearly upset Michigan.

Is anyone going to give Michigan credit for beating Air Force? No. Are they way more dangerous and less applicable to the rest of the schedule than any other G5 buy game you can imagine? Yes. This is why the scheduling of Air Force is unwise.

Michigan did put Army on the schedule a couple years down the road, which comes with some of the same problems. Unless the Black Knights sustain this recent blip, though, it doesn't come with the biggest one: a disproportionate shot at being upset. Army occasionally puts a scare into a 7-6 PSU team. They have not beaten a legitimately good team in recent memory.

[After THE JUMP: this is not like that other season]

Preview 2015: Wide Receiver

Preview 2015: Wide Receiver

Submitted by Brian on August 28th, 2015 at 11:11 AM

Previously: Podcast 7.0. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back.

[NOTE! This section uses the UFR catch chart. Passes are rated on a three point scale for catchability. 3: routine. 2: moderate. 1: difficult. There's also a zero for times when the player was thrown to without any chance of a reception.]

Depth Chart

WR Yr. WR Yr. SLOT Yr. Flex Yr.
Amara Darboh Jr.* Jehu Chesson Jr.* Grant Perry Fr. Jake Butt Jr.
Moe Ways Fr.* Drake Harris Fr.* Brian Cole Fr. Ian Bunting Fr.*
Jaron Dukes So.* Da'Mario Jones Jr. Jabrill Peppers Fr.* Khalid Hill So.*

[NOTE: though flex tight ends are listed above since they will fill some of the WR snaps they are addressed in the TE & Friends post, not here.] 

Last year's WR corps was a bit like the famous Braylon/Avant/Breaston trio if those guys had been coached by a potato and inserted into a disaster of an offense and gradually lost their will to live and halfway through the season they accidentally left Breaston in Piscataway and Breaston had to fend off a pair of cartoonishly dumb burglars with a series of elaborate traps.

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artist's impression via Seth

This year's WR corps is down the Braylon and Breaston equivalent-type-substances, leaving only a substantially more unproven version of Avant, Jehu Chesson, and a bunch of guys who have seen maybe six snaps between them.

But Drake Harris maybe? Shh. You'll spook the hamstring. Let's be nice to the hamstring. Good hamstring. Does hamstring want a treat? Yes it does. Nice hamstring.

OUTSIDE RECEIVER

Rating: 2.

16423387143_f9bb8cf030_z

[Patrick Barron]

As soon as Devin Funchess declared for the NFL draft, AMARA DARBOH became this year's presumptive #1 wide receiver. Normally that would be met with mild optimism since Darboh is a touted recruit entering his redshirt junior year with decent production. Also he did this:

But in the crater left after last year's offense got done with our brains it's hard to be positive about anything in the micro. (The macro, of course: HARBAUGH.)

In the tortured analogy above, Darboh is our substantially more unproven Avant. Avant was of course a quality possession receiver and slant merchant who is not much of a threat to take the top off a defense. When Darboh had a catchable ball come his way, he looked fairly similar:

He is not likely to be as good as Avant because Avant is 100 out of 100 in certain skills. Darboh might be very good and still a standard deviation below that level of performance.

[After THE JUMP: DON'T ALARM THE HAMSTRING]

Jimmystats: Whence the Receivers, Conference View

Jimmystats: Whence the Receivers, Conference View

Submitted by Seth on August 20th, 2015 at 12:15 PM

at the People's Climate March on Sept. 21 in New York City. (Adam Glanzman)

[Adam Glanzman]

Once again one of the things that became most apparent while doing Draftageddon was the receiver pool was again pretty crappy. I had a thought to try to use some of the targeting data to see if that was atypical, and found…well I found little but I figured you'd like to see it anyway. See if you can spot anything of interest in here or suggestions for further study.

That link goes back to when this same thing happened in 2012. Our post-draft consensus has usually been fairly accurate for most positions, but we were all over the place with the WRs. Jeremy Gallon was the 9th WR taken and led the conference in Bill Connelly's imperfect RYPR stat, with Abbrederis (3rd), Kenny Bell (7th), Allen Robinson (not drafted) and Roy Roundtree (12th) rounding out the top five. Last year's RYPR leaders were Lippett (our 9th receiver taken), Carroo (not drafted), Devin Smith (6th), Michael Thomas (not drafted) and Mike Dudek (not drafted). Things, e.g. injuries, happened. But we were correct that neither year was very good:

image

Click to big it make.

I chose yards per target to show this because it removes sacks, throwaways, and interceptions—you know, more quarterback-y things—to get a sense of overall conference receiver play. When you line up former Michigan WRs by YPT it passes a sanity check, e.g. the only listed WR in the NFL draft from the Big Ten was Denard. Last year—and yes a particularly awful year for quarterbacks was part of the story—was back to a low for receivers, and seven guys from that went in the NFL Draft (though the Dolphins are making Lippett a corner and I have no idea what the Texans saw in Mumphery).

The noise increases dramatically when you make these into team stats. Here's the Big Ten from 2005-2014

image

Quarterback is important, but as national trend data suggested in the first chart, the spread made a big difference, allowing teams with less talent to occupy safeties as well as Wisconsin's running game always has. Note for example that Lloyd Carr's not particularly well-thought-out offense peaked at 8.11 in 2006 with Breaston, Manningham, Arrington, and a healthy junior Chad Henne, a mark that was destroyed by four teams of the Roundtree/Hemingway/Gallon/Funchess era. (Yes the Threetsheridammit year was the worst of all).

Interestingly not all of these years corresponded to the amount of NFL drafted talent. Observe:

2005 2006 2007 2008
7.77 7.49 7.25 7.25
Santonio Holmes (1st) Ted Ginn (1st) James Hardy (2nd) Brian Robiskie (2nd)
Brandon Williams (3rd) Anthony Gonzalez (1st) Devin Thomas (2nd) Deon Butler (3rd)
Jason Avant (4th) Roy Hall (5th) Mario Manningham (3rd) Derrick Williams (3rd)
Michael Robinson (4th) Steve Breaston (5th) Paul Hubbard (6th) Brian Hartline (4th)
Jonathan Orr (6th)   Adrian Arrington (7th)  
Ethan Kilmer (7th)      
2009 2010 2011 2012
7.80 8.04 7.77 7.14
Arrelious Benn (2nd) Tandon Doss (4th) A.J. Jenkins (1st) Denard Robinson (5th)
Eric Decker (3rd)   DeVier Posey (3rd)  
    Keshawn Martin (4th)  
    Nick Toon (4th)  
    B.J. Cunningham (6th)  
    Marvin McNutt (6th)  
    Jeremy Ebert (7th)  
    Junior Hemingway (7th)  
2013 2014    
7.71 7.26    
Allen Robinson (2nd) Devin Smith (2nd)    
Cody Latimer (2nd) Devin Funchess (2nd)    
Jared Abbrederis (5th) Keith Mumphery (5th)    
Quincy Enunwa (6th) Kenny Bell (5th)    
Jeremy Gallon (7th) Stefon Diggs (5th)    
  Tony Lippett (5th)    
  Evan Spencer (6th)    

Obviously it's not just the NFL draft picks moving the needle, but you do see things above, like how the 2011 shot the Big Ten way up in YPT until it graduated, leaving a far less productive generation.

I'm still trying to see if any of these stats can predict individual leaps, which is the real meat.

UPDATE ON THAT:

So far I've taken the top five WRs in the conference by RYPR for each year since 2006 and looked at whether someone like Darboh (69.8 RYPR) or Chesson (22.7 RYPR) ever broke into that group. Some Big Ten players who made a leap from Darboh to pretty good were 2012 Roy Roundtree, 2006 Anthony Gonzalez (OSU), 2008 Jordan Norwood (PSU), and 2014 Tony Lippett (68.4 for MSU in 2013). There were a bunch of younger guys who made a larger freshman-to-sophomore jump, but those are the comps for a guy at Darboh's stage. That Lippett was in there is encouraging since he too emerged from a cratered passing game to the #1 guy.

Hello: Jedd Fisch, Wide Receivers

Hello: Jedd Fisch, Wide Receivers

Submitted by Brian on January 9th, 2015 at 12:11 PM

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visor pace Spurrier

Per many, many people, Michigan's hired former Jacksonville Jaguars OC Jedd Fisch as a WR coach and "passing game coordinator."

Fisch's coaching trajectory is an odd one. He played high school tennis, showed up at Florida hoping to sign up as a manager, and got rebuffed. He got a break a bit later:

An assistant coach for the Gators was recruiting one of the players on Fisch’s high school team, and before long, he had invited Fisch to do odd jobs around the football office. He spent a year quietly laboring before another assistant started giving Fisch higher-profile tasks.

His break had come. Finally.

“After a year of hiding around the office to do random projects, Coach Spurrier started noticing the work I was doing and liked what I was doing,” Fisch said. “Our relationship grew tremendously.”

After a couple of years as a GA under Spurrier at Florida, Fisch latched on to a defensive quality control spot with the Texans for a few years, then got an assistant (to the) QB/WR coach job with the Ravens, a spot he held for four years.

At this point his career blew up. First he got an honest-to-God position coach slot coaching WRs with the Broncos. That didn't last. The next year he was Minnesota's offensive coordinator and QB coach. That didn't last. He bounced back to the NFL the next year as the Seahawks' QB coach. That didn't last; the next year he was OC/QB with Miami (college edition); after two years of that he bounced to Jacksonville, where he was just unceremoniously terminated.

Fisch hasn't been anywhere for more than two years since his stint as an assistant to an assistant with the Ravens and has held three different offensive coordinator slots since 2009.

College performance:

YEAR TEAM FEI S&P YPP YPA QB
2008 Minnesota 77 76 88 60 Weber (SO)
2009 Minnesota 80 81 103 67 Weber (JR)
2010 Minnesota 34 67 75 47 Weber (SR)
2010 Miami 54 28 35 61 Morris (FR)/Harris(JR)
2011 Miami 3 23 26 18 Jacory Harris, SR
2012 Miami 47 41 16 25 Stephen Morris, JR
2013 Miami 14 5 11 10 Stephen Morris, SR

Fisch's first year with the Hurricanes (which was also Al Golden's first year) saw a drastic improvement at QB. The year before an interception-flinging Jacory Harris struggled to the point where he was platooned with true freshman Stephen Morris. Harris completed 55% of his passes for 6.6 YPA and had a TD:INT of 14:15.

Fisch enters; Harris holds the job for the entirety of his senior season, completes 65% at 8.3 a pop and has a 20:9 TD:INT. Miami leaps from the middle of the pack in YPA to the top 20 and maintains that performance the next two years as Morris becomes a solid option.

The 2011 Miami season stands out as one of the weirdest in advanced stats. It was thoroughly discussed at the time around here since I like using FEI and having a Miami team that pooped out a 6-3 win over South Florida that far up the chart was credibility-sapping. As best I can figure, a 35-point performance against a rampant Virginia Tech defense was fuel for that ranking. S&P was not so impressed with the Fisch impact.

In any case, Fisch had a clear positive impact on the Hurricanes offense, especially in the passing game.

Things weren't nearly as successful with Minnesota. Fisch's single year there saw Adam Weber regress in most statistical categories, throwing a bunch of picks. It's hard to pick what was going wrong there, deep into the Tim Brewster era. Not much was going right with the Gophers and a single year there is no more indicative of coaching talent than Doug Nussmeier's lost 2014.

There's not much to like about Fisch's tenure with the Jaguars.

YEAR TEAM DVOA YPP YPA QB
2012 Jacksonville 28 30 28 Gabbert/Henne
2013 Jacksonville 32 30 30 Chad Henne
2014 Jacksonville 31 31 32 Blake Bortles (rookie)

But there wasn't much to work with, either. Fisch had a rookie QB last year; three of the top four Jags WRs were also rookies. Denard Robinson had just established himself a pretty good running back when he was lost for the year, leaving a meh offensive line trying to get Toby Gerhart yards. No offense to Chad Henne, but he doesn't seem like an NFL QB.

Fisch was hurled overboard as Gus Bradley tries to salvage his job. On the one hand, you've got a short stint with an already moribund franchise that features a ton of injuries and rookies; on the other you've got a guy who is 38 and has already impressed enough people to be an offensive coordinator at three different places. The one situation he found himself in that could plausibly result in success—Miami under the competent Al Golden—resulted in that. He's a bit of a swing for the fences, but… I mean… he's basically a position coach with a cool title..

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

I'd be leery of Fisch as a coordinator since his track record is a little short and uneven. As the kind of sort of third OC behind Harbaugh and Drevno and a WR coach, it's a good get. Fisch doesn't have much college experience but the guys around him all do, and if this is his goal

What’s down the road for Fisch? Ultimately, he wants to be a head coach, and he’s working fervently to get there. He takes detailed notes in every meeting, saving the dozens of notebooks he’s amassed over the years so he can always look back along the way.

“You try to take what you can use today and use it today and then you try to store the rest of it,” Fisch said. “There’s so much from each one of these guys. I’m trying to soak it in and then make it my own — I’ve got to make sure I’m not trying to be somebody else but that I’m learning from all of these guys.”

…you know he's going to get after it as a recruiter despite having little track record in that department so far.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE COACHING STAFF

We're just about complete here, with one spot on each side of the ball yet to be determined. The leaders for those spots are Roy Manning and Jimmie Dougherty, but Manning might get pushed out if Michigan needs a bonafide second DBs coach. Chart:

OFFENSE COACH confidence DEFENSE COACH confidence
OC Tim Drevno lock DC DJ Durkin lock
QB Jim Harbaugh lock DL Greg Mattison lock
RB Ty Wheatley very likely LB Durkin lock
WR Jedd Fisch lock DB Greg Jackson lock
OL Drevno lock OLB/DE Roy Manning probable
TE Jimmie Dougherty probable ST John Baxter lock

S&C: Kevin Tolbert.

Preview 2014: Wide Receivers

Preview 2014: Wide Receivers

Submitted by Brian on August 26th, 2014 at 11:28 AM

Previously: Podcast 6.0. The Story. Quarterback. Running back.

[NOTE! This section uses the UFR catch chart. Passes are rated on a three point scale for catchability. 3: routine. 2: moderate. 1: difficult. There's also a zero for times when the player was thrown to without any chance of a reception.]

Depth Chart

WR Yr. WR Yr. SLOT Yr. Flex Yr.
Devin Funchess Jr. Amara Darboh So.* Dennis Norfleet Jr. Jake Butt So.
Jehu Chesson So.* Freddy Canteen Fr. Bo Dever So.*# Khalid Hill Fr.*
Da'Mario Jones So.* Moe Ways Fr. Ross Douglas Fr.* -- --

[NOTE: though flex tight ends are listed above since they will fill some of the WR snaps they are addressed in the TE & Friends post, not here.]

It's not often you lose a guy who broke the single-season receiving record and think that things could get better, but it's not often you come across a guy like Devin Funchess, either. Behind Funchess there's not a whole lot that's proven but there are sufficient numbers and hype to believe that Michigan goes five or six deep in quality options, especially after Jake Butt gets back.

If things break right, this unit could hearken back to the Breaston/Edwards/Avant days where you had the NFL-level ludicrous deep threat, the possession ninja, and the screen merchant all in one receiving corps, getting all mother/maiden/crone in your face. It'll take some luck… but not that much luck.

OUTSIDE RECEIVER

Rating: 5.

10370768513_8c96b26904_z

everybody get up [Fuller]

The charade is over. Devin Funchess is a wide receiver, 100%. Not that you had to be told that after he spent 87% of last year split wide, faking bubble screens and occasionally catching them and oh right running downfield and leaping over dudes. Funchess put his hand in the dirt in passing situations only, and no one has tried to suggest he might do even that much this year.

This is pretty terrific. Michigan had a guy break Braylon Edwards's single-season receiving record and there was still enough left over for Funchess to rake in 49 catches for almost 750 yards. By the Big Ten opener he was just, like, running right by cornerbacks.

At the end of the year Michigan was handing him the ball on end-arounds and watching him nearly break them for touchdowns, if only Devin Gardner could ID the safety he needs to block. Oh, and this!

A man that large should not be able to move that fast. Take it from someone who played against him:

"I can't believe he's that big and that fast. He made us look silly. You can't get around him. He's just such a big body that he's going to block you from making a play on the football. …

"He could be like Calvin Johnson in the red zone. Just throw it up and let him go get it. I bet we see a lot more of that this year."

I didn't say it! I may have thought it, but I didn't say it. I did call him Minitron a few times, and I may have wondered privately about whether Funchess could be, like… him. But naw. I mean, Calvin Johnson ran a 4.35 at his NFL draft combine.

Funchess proved last season he's capable of being an elite-level receiver. There were some dropped passes here and there, but his combination of size and speed (he clocked a 4.33 in the 40-yard dash in the spring) remains unmatched on the U-M roster.

FAKE! FAKE, I say! That is not a real thing, because physics. Only… you know, it's only almost impossible. Because Calvin Johnson. And when you watch him go up against top corners like Stanley Jean-Baptiste, a second round pick last year…

…or Trae Waynes, a projected first rounder this year…

…it's just like… maybe I should make this comparison I should not make. Because he is smoking those dudes. Not every time, because it never happens every time, but enough. A lot. At 6'5".

BUT WHAT ABOUT HANDS, the bits of the internet with short attention spans ask. Okay, yes. The one catch was a late-season spate of dropped balls. He derfed three in the Iowa game alone, greatly contributing to Michigan's inability to move the ball. One of those was a very conspicuous one on a screen, and that is currently playing an outsized role in people's brains. Because the last thing that's happened is the thing that is always going to happen, Funchess now has a rep for having shaky hands. Once you see the first derf it is a natural inclination to start judging harshly, like when he gets hit in the back by Gardner because of a bad blitz pickup.

This is why we track the numbers, and the numbers say Funchess is anything but a problem:

Year 0 1 2 3
2012 8 2/5 2/4 11/11
2013, Pre-Iowa 16 3/6 5/7 33/35
2013, Iowa 4     1/4
2013, OSU 3 0/1 1/2 2/2

But once you get a reputation in this area people start looking at anything you don't catch as a drop. This is probably one of the plays that stick in skeptics' minds:

That's crazy tough! That's low and behind him and it's only his freaky long arms and Brad Nessler that even give that pass the semblance of a drop.

Until the Iowa game, Funchess's catching ability was unquestioned. Don't let one bad game in the bitter cold overwhelm a large sample size that indicates Funchess's hands are in fact an asset, especially when you consider that the chart above doesn't take the fact that he's 6'5" and can leap over defensive backs into account.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE FACT THAT CALVIN JOHNSON IS A UNIQUE UNREPLICABLE HUMAN WHO IS PROBABLY PART ALIEN AND BITTEN BY A RADIOACTIVE SPIDER, says the tiny bit of the internet with common sense. And… okay, well, yeah. You should never project anything at the extremes of possibility because probability is going to make you pay for that, son.

So Devin Funchess probably isn't Calvin Johnson. Michigan should try to prove that assertion wrong. Expect something between first team All Big Ten and an All-American followed by an early entry into the NFL draft. He may even win the Mackey award, because people don't pay attention.

[After THE JUMP: refugees, JUNGLE BEATS, and tiny dancer.]

This Week's Obsession: Targets Acquired

This Week's Obsession: Targets Acquired

Submitted by Seth on August 20th, 2014 at 11:02 AM

04 Fuller - 8358884667_5f2773bf31_o

[Fuller]

[UPDATED 12:25p.m. Now with 100% more Ace]

The Q: Michigan graduated much of its 2013 receiver depth chart and did away with the fancy Borges stacks and routes. In this new world, after Funchess, who's going to be Gardner's favorite target this year? Who are we going to see more or less of among the receivers/tight ends?

Brian: 1. Amara Darboh. Darboh was going to start last year and the buzz there was palpable. He brings physicality against what I promise you will be the grabbiest set of Big Ten pass defenses you've ever seen—the MSU effect—and he's even got mutant muscles in his arms, which I assume will be the entirety of Ace's response. He should ease past Canteen for the starting job, at least to start, and Canteen will have a tough time catching up since he's not going to drop off the face of the earth. 

2. Dennis Norfleet. This is an artifact of some assumptions about the rest of the offense. Namely, that they won't be able to run that well and the tight end situation is going to be suboptimal. With reports that Norfleet looks great in space and an offensive coordinator who's not afraid to throw to his WRs on the perimeter, Norfleet's catch volume should spike as Michigan looks to him for easy yards that get defenders out of the box.

3. Freddy Canteen. Yeah, he's probably Manningham again, but even Manningham had a bit of a slow start. It'll be close with Norfleet.

4. Jehu Chesson/Jake Butt. Your guess is as good as mine about relative frequency here. I have a hunch we're going to see tight ends stay in to block frequently this year what with the lack of NFL OTs, and Butt is going to miss at least a game or two after his ACL tear. But he's got a much clearer path to playing time than Chesson and already had more catches than Chesson did a year ago.

Everyone else gets scraps, maybe a dozen catches spread between AJ Williams, Keith Heitzman, Da'Mario Jones, and Jaron Dukes and another dozen to the tailbacks. I hope we don't see any of the true freshmen other than Canteen, because there's not much need either this year or next and all could use work.

[Jump for the rest of us twisting ourselves to not have the same responses]

Hokepoints Updates RYPR

Hokepoints Updates RYPR

Submitted by Seth on May 20th, 2014 at 2:49 PM

BLF_3124

Upchurch

Bill Connelly a few years back created a new uberstat for receivers called RYPR (receiving yards/total team plays *Passing S&P+). His description:

Below, you will find a measure that attempts to answer the following questions about a given pass-catcher:

  • 1) How much do you produce?
  • 2) How important are you to your team's passing game?
  • 3) How good is the passing game to which you are important?
  • 4) And how much is the forward pass featured in your team's offense?

The idea was to simply multiply the following four factors together: a player's Yards Per Target, his Target Rate, his team's Passing S&P+, and his team's pass rate. Target Rate x Yards Per Target x Passing S&P+ x Pass Rate = RYPR.

He last updated this in October. So I updated, using data made available by cfbstats.com, and Fremeau's S&P+ team rating. Here's all 1,167 guys with at least 10 targets in 2013:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rkk-xZfImYtSw-RSE2OJKatAayoPbUA_AdFsGSF9J8s/edit?usp=sharing

Let's skip right to Michigan

I went through several iterations trying to match exactly what Connelly had done, so this may not match the results I reported beforehand. Here's the breakdown of Michigan's targets with NCAA averages in parentheses:

Target # Receiver RYPR (NCAA avg) Yards/Tgt Target Rate
1 Jeremy Gallon 178.0 (102.6) 10 (8.6) 32% (23%)
2 Devin Funchess 97.0 (68.8) 8.1 (8.1) 21% (17%)
3 Drew Dileo 22.6 (49.5) 5.8 (7.8) 7% (12%)
4 Jake Butt 30.5 (36.6) 8.7 (7.7) 6% (9%)
5 Jehu Chesson 28.7 (27.0) 9.2 (7.2) 6% (7%)
6 Fitz Toussaint 26.3 (20.9) 10.2 (6.7) 5% (6%)
7 Jeremy Jackson 9.2 (17.1) 7.1 (7.0) 2% (5%)

Funchess's 97.0 was 22nd among teams' second targets though his yards per target were average for No. 2 guys. The max protect stuff in the season's third quarter (Indiana through Nebraska) bore out in the numbers, with that third receiver (Dileo) far under the typical third receiver's usage.

Best Receivers in a Bad B1G

Gallon wasn't the only long term top receiver to graduate last year, and the conference wasn't very deep on receiving talent to begin with. The result is not many wideouts left in-conference to have cracked that 100 (average for a team's best receiver) mark. In 2013 the Big Ten average RYPR for its teams' top three receivers was 69.5, last among major conferences and just ahead of the Sun Belt and Conf USA. When I removed all seniors the Big Ten was behind the MAC (Conference USA was still very worse). Here's the best among those that remain.

Receivers Team Tgt Rec Yds YPT Tgt Rt 1st Dn% RYPR
Devin Funchess Michigan #2 49 748 8.1 24.7% 36% 113.6
Christian Jones Northwestern #2 54 668 8.7 21.2% 52% 98.1
Tony Jones Northwestern #1 55 616 7.7 22.0% 39% 90.5
Shane Wynn Indiana #3 46 633 9.7 14.3% 35% 89.0
Devin Smith Ohio State #2 44 660 9.0 20.9% 34% 88.7
Levern Jacobs Maryland #1 47 633 8.8 18.2% 31% 88.1
Stefon Diggs Maryland #3 34 587 10.5 14.2% 43% 81.7
DeAngelo Yancey Purdue #1 32 546 7.8 18.2% 30% 78.9
Deon Long Maryland #5 32 489 8.9 13.9% 36% 68.0
Kenny Bell Nebraska #2 52 577 6.6 24.5% 34% 68.0

Maryland has lots of receivers. Northwestern's Joneses were pretty productive, and could be more so in a Trevor Siemian offense. The tight ends:

Tight Ends Team Tgt Rec Yds YPT Tgt Rt 1st Dn% RYPR
Tyler Kroft Rutgers #1 43 573 8.3 16.8% 45% 72.1
Jeff Heuerman Ohio State #4 26 466 12.9 10.3% 44% 62.6
Maxx Williams Minnesota #2 25 417 10.4 15.7% 50% 57.1
Dan Vitale Northwestern #3 34 382 6.7 15.7% 32% 56.1
Justin Sinz Purdue #2 41 340 6.2 14.3% 36% 49.1
Jesse James Penn State #3 25 333 8.3 10.2% 33% 39.0
Jake Butt Michigan #4 20 235 8.7 7.3% 48% 35.7

Remind me to draft Heuerman in the draft-o-snark.

Michigan Perimeter Blocking, WR Drills

Michigan Perimeter Blocking, WR Drills

Submitted by Brian on August 13th, 2013 at 4:26 PM

The youtube search I have that usually turns up Michigan State fans in gorilla costumes and ads for illegal streams has hit upon something actually interesting for a change: cut-ups from the Michigan coaches' clinic.

This one is on Michigan's perimeter blocking:

Hit up 25 minutes for always-entertaining editions of the Michigan drill

The good blocks are widely distributed between Roundtree, Gallon, and Dileo with some cameos by Gardner(!) and Darboh. Darboh just buries a couple guys; Dileo and Gallon bring that Martavious Odoms mountain-goat-style blocking to the party. These clips are just the good bits, for the most part, but it seems like Michigan likes what they have in that department this year. Gallon in particular is ruthless in his desire to put guys on their ass 40 yards from the play.

Darboh should be an asset, as he's got a lot more size than anyone they played last year save Gardner and seems to have the same desire the mighty mites do.

The second item is about 5 minutes of individual WR drills featuring everyone's favorite training landmark:

The big takeaway there is the huge agility gap between Jackson and Darboh/Chesson, let alone the slot-type guys at the top of the depth chart.

Unverified Voracity Is Afraid Of The Mississippi Black Hole Again

Unverified Voracity Is Afraid Of The Mississippi Black Hole Again

Submitted by Brian on August 6th, 2013 at 2:59 PM

Number one breakout. ESPN's Travis Haney compiled a list of 50 breakout players for the upcoming season based on "a lot of input from coaches" and your new favorite quarterback is #1:

“I recruited him,” said one of the Big Ten coaches who played against Gardner late last year. “I know how good he can be. I would say I have been looking forward to him getting his chance, because he’s a really good kid, but they’re on the schedule again this year.”

Frank Clark also features at #35.

Swag. We are totally losing Michael Ferns to Mississippi State, you guys.

image

Following up on earlier assertion. I mentioned in passing in a previous post that I felt Bill Connolly was way underrating LeVeon Bell and way overrating Michigan State's offensive line in his Spartan preview for the year, and as I was looking up various things about Derrick Green I came across a stunning stat on Bell:

Le'Veon Bell gained 921 yards after contact in 2012, most among players from AQ schools. Bell gained more than 50 percent of his yards after contact and averaged 2.4 yards after contact per rush.

Bell got 2.3 yards before contact and 2.4 after. That is a man doing work to clean up for a terrible offensive line. And quarterback: Bell's 382 carries led the nation by 26.

Countdowns to kickoff. Taylor Lewan:

Countdown to Kickoff 2013: Day 28 - Taylor Lewan by mgovideo

Lewan is a thousand times more boring than he used to be. Leadership!

Also Quinton Washington and Jeremy Gallon. True story: bought a chair at Art Van this summer, marveled at the size of the guy they had hauling stuff around, realized that I knew who this was: Quinton Washington. Woo minimum wage, for one more year.

Also, the first day of practice:

Michigan Football First Practice Fall 2013 by mgovideo

Derrick Green's first carry went for 50 yards and birthed a unicorn.

Wide receivers block, then they receive. In-depth ESPN article on the blocking aspects of playing out wide comes highly recommended for interesting quotes and such. Minnesota safety Brock Vereen is either worried about his knees or an expert at backhanded compliments:

“They act as if they are more excited to block than they are to catch a pass,” Minnesota safety Brock Vereen said. “Sadly, I’m not even exaggerating.”

Michigan's dumped cut blocking for a lot of reasons, but the primary one is the fact that defensive backs just get up too darn fast these days:

“They are like those Weeble Wobbles that you had growing up,” Hecklinski said. “You can throw a great cut and he’s right back up making a play and golly, that’s a great cut."

"Golly," says the man eating everyone's lunch on the recruiting trail. #TheMichiganDifference.

The article gestures at one of the main reasons Michigan's wide receivers were so pumped up to block: with Denard Robinson on your team, any play could be a 20 yard run you fail to turn into 80, and then your ass is roasted. Hopefully they maintain the same urgency as Michigan moves to a system more likely to get you five (after contact, and by "contact" I mean "safety murder") than 50.

Hoke advocates earlier official visits. Makes sense, will never happen for the same reason a baseball season that makes sense will never happen:

“Having an official visit date in June would help football,” Hoke stated. “I know some of our friends in the Pac 12 and the SEC probably don’t want the young man and his family coming up to Michigan during the first two weeks in June, because they’re hoping it’s 10 below zero when those official visits take place.”

A rather large win. Wolverine Historian puts up the '95 Minnesota game:

Mack Brown offer letter. I just find this interesting. It's an official offer letter from Mack Brown to a guy named Lorenzo:

large[1]

[bigger version here]

Items:

  • The first bullet is basically Michigan's much-discussed and much-misunderstood "policy" about commits taking visits: you are committed if you are not taking visits, and if you visit elsewhere Michigan will not consider you committed. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll pull your scholarship offer, but your spot is no longer reserved and they may recruit someone else or just reconfigure their class. Why recruiting sites, opposing fans, and Michigan fans keep going on and on about it is a mystery to me.
  • Texas is explicitly offering four year scholarships, and seems to state that a fifth year is also guaranteed… but I think the fine print there means the firm handshake is still an option if the Head Coach wants it to be.
  • The pointlessness of the rule where players cannot get written offers before August 1st of their senior year is brought home in the first paragraph: Texas is "pleased to reconfirm our commitment to the football athletic scholarship you committed to earlier this year." The lack of written offers has led to the rise of the incredibly annoying "uncommittable offer" and prevents players from getting the exact stipulations of their scholarship offer in writing until long after many of them have committed. And it obviously does nothing to slow down the pace of recruiting.

The only way to slow down the pace of recruiting, by the way, is to let kids sign whenever they want. Eighth grader offers will come to a screeching halt, for real.

SBNation has a roundup of offer letters from around the country, featuring Comic Sans from Virginia Tech, "formally" spectacularly misspelled as "formerly" by Virginia, and Illinois claiming that those who attend there will play "championship football." That latter might be true if in fact the Big Ten has been relegated to the second level of English soccer. Which it probably has after last year. We done got relegated you guys.

Quite a rise. Four Michigan players make the final roster at the USA World Juniors evaluation camp: JT Compher, Tyler Motte, Boo Nieves… and Andrew Copp. I think 14 of the 18 forwards on the roster will be on the WJC team, so Copp's gone from JJ Swistak But Big to a guy with a very good chance of making the WJC team in 12 months. Wow.

Amen. Hoke on ND:

"I do not like the fact it's going away," Hoke said.

Asked who is a fault for all this, Hoke responded simply: "We would like to continue the series."

Realignment has replaced the ND game and games against Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Northwestern with Rutgers and Maryland.

Etc.: Harmon Of Michigan's theme song is a "Hollywood-style rendition of the Victors," and MVictors has it. Michigan Hockey Net posts the famous 2002 Denver-Michigan West Regional Final at Yost. Michigan players on the O'Bannon case.

Hokepoints: Where's the (Downfield) Threat?

Hokepoints: Where's the (Downfield) Threat?

Submitted by Seth on June 18th, 2013 at 11:32 AM

uspw_6637876Penn State's Navy's during the Lions win at Beaver Stadium. 09/15/2012 SEAN SIMMERS, THE PATRIOT-NEWS

[Sorry this one will be short but HTTV is going out today.]

I love me some plumb-able data, like the kind cfbstats puts out at the end of every year. And I love me some stats made out of ingredients that are don't get mentioned, like receiver targets and Bill Connelly's ensuing RYPR metric. Yes I've played around with it before, usually in context of how awesome Jeremy Gallon is.

RYPR (stands for Target Rate x Yards Per Target x Passing S&P+ x Pass Rate) is useful because it cuts through some of the usage bias. Penn State's Allen Robinson put up conference-leading numbers last year because Matt McGloin's brain was capable of processing just two commands: "run around a bunch" and "find A-Rob." Usage isn't a total red herring; a receiver earns his targets, and the more the offense focuses on him the more defenses do as well. However the thing to do in late June isn't so much awarding production in 2012 as trying to spot guys who are going to be a handful in 2013.

The last couple of weeks I've been referencing it while adding flourishes to the pages of Hail to the Victors 2013. I thought I'd spill some of those results onto the interwebs.

2013 Dangermen

Here's the top 25 guys Michigan will probably face this season:

# Player Ht Wt Yr Team CR YPT RYPR Rk(conf) Rk (FBS)
1 Kenny Bell 6'1 185 JR Nebraska 64.9% 11.2 134.6 3-B1G 34
2 Allen Robinson 6'3 201 JR Penn State 61.1% 8.1 133.3 4-B1G 36
3 Corey Brown 6'1 197 SR Ohio State 70.6% 7.9 118.2 6-B1G 52
4 TJ Jones 5'11 190 SR Notre Dame 61.0% 7.9 109.5 n/a 70
5 Devin Smith 6'1 200 JR Ohio State 51.7% 10.7 109.2 7-B1G 73
6 Titus Davis 6'2 190 JR CMU 54.4% 10.8 107.2 7-MAC 79
7 Cody Latimer 6'3 208 JR Indiana 78.5% 12.4 107.0 8-B1G 80
8 Shane Wynn 5'7 157 JR Indiana 70.5% 6.8 86.1 9-B1G 124
9 Kofi Hughes 6'2 210 SR Indiana 53.1% 7.9 85.0 10-B1G 129
10 DaVaris Daniels 6'2 190 JR Notre Dame 67.4% 10.7 82.7 n/a 137
11 Geremy Davis 6'1 214 JR Connecticut 62.0% 8.6 79.9 11-BE 148
12 Quincy Enunwa 6'2 215 SR Nebraska 60.9% 6.8 73.3 13-B1G 180
13 Kevonte Martin-Manley 6'0 205 JR Iowa 64.2% 7.0 70.2 15-B1G 196
14 Jamal Turner 6'1 185 JR Nebraska 60.4% 7.9 65.0 17-B1G 216
15 Kyle Carter 6'3 247 SO Penn State 69.2% 8.7 59.3 20-B1G 240
16 Ted Bolser 6'6 250 SR Indiana 65.1% 7.1 59.2 21-B1G 241
17 Bennie Fowler 6'1 218 SR MSU 60.3% 7.7 58.5 22-B1G 246
18 Keith Mumphery 6'0 208 JR MSU 51.9% 6.4 57.5 23-B1G 251
19 Brandon Moseby-Felder 6'2 195 SR Penn State 49.2% 6.9 57.2 24-B1G 252
20 Christian Jones 6'3 225 JR Northwestern 70.0% 8.2 54.3 28-B1G 273
21 C.J. Fiedorowicz 6'7 265 SR Iowa 69.2% 6.7 53.7 29-B1G 277
22 Shakim Phillips 6'1 200 JR Connecticut 56.1% 7.0 52.0 23-BE 294
23 Derrick Engel 6'2 182 SR Minnesota 62.1% 12.9 51.8 31-B1G 298
24 L.T. Smith 6'0 199 JR Akron 62.3% 6.6 51.3 22-MAC 301
25 Keith Sconiers 6'1 185 SR Akron 74.5% 7.8 48.3 24-MAC 323

CR is catch rate, i.e. the % of balls thrown at him that he caught. YPT is yards per target.

One of Michigan's smaller concerns going into this season is coverage. We'll be starting a new safety, almost assuredly Jarrod Wilson. Blake Countess comes back and J.T. Floyd graduated but it's not a one-for-one trade: Raymon Taylor is expected to shift to boundary while Countess resumes the field duties. Those familiar with Floyd's career here know his specialty was blanketing big receivers who didn't have enough speed to simply leave J.T. in the dust. Taylor is smaller, and not that guy. Depth there is still quite young and/or tiny. It's possible one of the tall freshman corners or nickel-safety Dymonte Thomas ends up spelling Taylor if Michigan comes up against a particularly large human.

Well look at the table above and find the deep threats. There really aren't that many. Kenny Bell and Allen Robinson are the guys to watch out for. Neither is paired with a secondary threat—Nebraska's next best receiver is Jamal Turner, and Penn State's Moseby-Felder is just a guy (their tight ends, e.g. Carter, are a bigger concern). Ohio State's Corey "Philly" Brown was their slot guy much of the year—the offense creates those yards for him—but Devin Smith is a go-long threat. Indiana's three guys look less scary when you consider they'd be ranked as highly in the MAC as the Big Ten.

Notably missing from that list is State's Aaron Burbridge. We saw the recruiting profile and that he was obviously better than Mumphery or Fowler, but his stats are really unimpressive: 62 targets, 364 yards for a 46.8% catch rate, 5.9 yards per target, and 40.6 RYPR. Like the other two Spartan receivers, he did seem to fall victim to Michigan State's tendency to do a lot of their passing only when they had to. One of the stats Connelly tracked was how often the guy was being targeted on a passing down (2nd and 10+, or 3rd and 6+), when presumably the level of difficulty rises. Of the guys on this list, four of the top six are Spartans, all of whom had about half of their targets come on passing downs.

Top Targets

Some of these guys appeared to be the focal point of their offenses:

# Player Team Tgt Cth Yds CRt YPT Tgt % %SD
1 Corey "Philly" Brown Ohio State 85 60 669 70.6% 7.9 32.0% 54.1%
2 Allen Robinson Penn State 126 77 1018 61.1% 8.1 28.7% 64.3%
3 TJ Jones Notre Dame 82 50 649 61.0% 7.9 22.5% 69.5%
4 Devin Smith Ohio State 58 30 618 51.7% 10.7 21.8% 69.0%
5 Kenny Bell Nebraska 77 50 863 64.9% 11.2 21.6% 61.0%
6 Kevonte Martin-Manley Iowa 81 52 569 64.2% 7.0 21.4% 56.8%
7 Titus Davis CMU 79 43 850 54.4% 10.8 20.7% 63.3%
8 Geremy Davis Connecticut 71 44 613 62.0% 8.6 19.8% 52.1%
9 Quincy Enunwa Nebraska 69 42 470 60.9% 6.8 19.3% 58.0%
10 Shane Wynn Indiana 95 67 648 70.5% 6.8 18.7% 67.4%
11 Keith Mumphery MSU 81 42 515 51.9% 6.4 18.5% 55.6%
12 C.J. Fiedorowicz Iowa 65 45 435 69.2% 6.7 17.2% 52.3%
13 Kofi Hughes Indiana 81 43 639 53.1% 7.9 15.9% 54.3%
14 Shakim Phillips Connecticut 57 32 399 56.1% 7.0 15.9% 40.4%
15 Rashad Lawrence Northwestern 55 34 321 61.8% 5.8 15.7% 70.9%

A picture emerges of go-to guys who get about 20% of balls. The exceptions were Allen Robinson and whoever's playing the Percy Harvin position for Urban Meyer.

By "%SD" that means the percent of balls thrown his way that were on standard downs, as opposed to passing downs—the reverse of what I was talking about above. It helps to pick out different types of receivers: Notre Dame and Ohio State will chuck their long balls to TJ Jones and Devin Smith, respectively, but look elsewhere when trying to reach the yard marker. Conversely Connecticut seems to save Shakim Phillips (40.4% standard downs) for when it needs a conversion.

Deep Threats

# Player Team Yards CatchRate YPT Target % RYPT
1 Cody Latimer Indiana 805 78.5% 12.4 12.8% 12.4
2 Kenny Bell Nebraska 863 64.9% 11.2 21.6% 11.2
3 Jesse James Penn State 276 60.0% 11.0 5.7% 11.0
4 Devin Smith Ohio State 618 51.7% 10.7 21.8% 10.7
5 DaVaris Daniels Notre Dame 490 67.4% 10.7 12.6% 10.6
6 Titus Davis Central Michigan 850 54.4% 10.8 20.7% 10.5
7 Keith Sconiers Akron 479 74.5% 8.7 10.1% 8.8
8 Kyle Carter Penn State 453 69.2% 8.7 11.8% 8.7
9 Geremy Davis Connecticut 613 62.0% 8.6 19.8% 8.6
10 Jerrod Dillard Akron 401 61.7% 8.5 8.6% 8.5
11 Christian Jones Northwestern 412 70.0% 8.2 14.3% 8.3
12 Matt Lehman Penn State 296 66.7% 8.2 8.2% 8.2
13 TJ Jones Notre Dame 649 61.0% 7.9 22.5% 8.1
14 Allen Robinson Penn State 1018 61.1% 8.1 28.7% 8.1
15 Zurlon Tipton CMU 287 66.7% 8.0 9.4% 8.0

These are sorted by "real yards per target", which is yards per target adjusted to what it would have been if your %SD correlated to the national average.

Finding Meaning

The point of this was to spot anyone who might be particularly dangerous given Michigan's defensive backfield. Your answers in order: Kenny Bell in single coverage, Kenny Bell's hair, Allen Robinson, Indiana, and Penn State's tight ends.