lamont wade

Previously: Offense, Last Year. Resources: My charting, PSU game notes, PSU roster, CFBstats

The Penn State defensive staff has been recruiting as well as any school in the country on defense. The blue-chip talent is evident everywhere, including and especially the spot that had a darkhorse Heisman candidate opt out of the season. That one's because Brent Pry didn't really change the defense's structure when Micah Parsons decided not to play. When the poor guy asked to take Parson's place isn't yelling "Oh COME ON!" at being asked to be on both sides of a blocker, the structure works pretty well. Nebraska has a clever offensive coach and managed to find the pressure points early in the game, but Penn State has a few clever defenders of their own. It would be a good defense if it wasn't put in such crummy situations by its offense. And if they didn't have the kind of record that makes blue chips' thoughts turn to the next thing in their lives. One sympathizes.

The film: Sticking with Scott Frost Day. Penn State gave up two TD drives of 75 and 65 yards, field goal drives of 63, 35, and 10 yards, two 3-and-outs, a 4-and-out, a 7-play drive that petered out after 28 yards, and a late interception, for a total of just 323 yards and 17 first downs on 62 offensive plays (the official 298 counts a bunch of special teams penalties). That's 5.21 YPP; not a bad mark but the Huskers were at 8 YPP while jumping to a 27-6 lead, and steadily fell off as they salted away the game.

Personnel: My diagram:

PDF Version, full-size version (or click on the image). McNamara at QB because I have eyes and was conscious last week. Calling Haskins RB1 doesn't mean the rotation's over.

[After THE JUMP: A cult.]

Previously: Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver & Tight End, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker

I'm bringing back this preview feature from before my time off; the exercise is to rank Michigan's opponents, as well as the Wolverines themselves, in each position group. This is particularly useful to do in a year when roster turnover and late-offseason changes (laaaaaaaaaaaaaate-offseason changes) are so prevalent; I'll do my best in these posts to highlight significant opt-outs, opt-ins, and the like.

We've reached the end of this series, as I'm not going to attempt to squeeze in a special teams preview in a pandemic year. (Short version: college kickers.) Unfortunately, it looks a lot like the beginning of the series.

Tier I: The F****** Buckeyes, Again

sorry, this is the only shot we have of Shaun Wade [Eric Upchurch]

1. Ohio State. Yes, the Buckeyes lost two first-round cornerbacks—even if their fans were shocked to see Damon Arnette picked that high—and starting safety Jordan Fuller. Corner/slot Shaun Wade still ensured OSU's spot atop another position group when he opted back into the season his dad lobbied so hard to have. According to PFF's season preview magazine, Wade had more pass breakups (8) than first downs allowed (7) in 2019, a feat no other Big Ten player came close to matching.

Wade can move all around the defense. Cornerbacks Sevyn Banks and Cameron Brown are both 6'1" former four-stars; the former impressed in limited snaps last year, the latter got a lot of attention during OSU's abbreviated spring session. Safety Josh Proctor is expected to be a seamless replacement for Fuller as the single-high safety in their Cover 1/3-heavy scheme. If they utilize a second safety, it's likely to be Marcus Hooker, Malik's younger brother.

This is a defensive back factory until further notice.

Tier II: Good, Slightly Flawed

Wisconsin DBs benefited from a hellacious pass rush in 2019 [Patrick Barron]

2. Wisconsin. One of the top statistical pass defenses in the country returns almost every major contributor and even brings back former starting safety Scott Nelson, who went out for the year to injury in last season's opener. I don't see them in the same tier as OSU, however, because I'm skeptical they can replicate last year's success without last year's monster pass rush—sack leader Zack Baun leaves a big hole at outside linebacker.

When better opponents were able to hold down the pass rush, they feasted. From HTTV:

After an excellent first half of the season, the secondary struggled down the stretch in 2019. While the schedule got a lot tougher, the numbers from their mid-October upset loss at Illinois through the Big Ten title game were ugly: opponents threw for 9.2 yards per attempt with 15 touchdowns and three interceptions.

The overall numbers are still excellent and there's experience across the board what with losing only safety Reggie Pearson from last year's secondary. There's a chance UW does their usual reload up front and makes it just as tough to poke holes in the back. They'll be well-coached under defensive coordinator and longtime NFL safety Jim Leonhard. I'm not sure there's high-level NFL talent but if these guys show up in the right place it might not matter.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the rankings.]

Previously: The Offense

Resources: My charting, PSU game notes, PSU roster, CFBstats, Last Year

I remember a game I FFFF'd one year for Michigan State against PSU, and I got furious at one point because the usual suspects were taking cheap shots at the PSU NT's knees, and finally knocked the guy out of the game. Part of that was this occurred right after Robert Windsor had a string of great pass rushes on a series of all long downs. I don't remember the exact series but it went something like false start-sack-throwaway-defensive penalty-sack-sack-give up and punt, and Windsor had gone OFF. The next series the cheap shots started, and Windsor left the game, and from there he developed a reputation as a guy who screams upfield every play, damn the consequences, and is utter hell on bad OLs. State's certainly was.

Maybe he's still that guy? I dunno. But I have a theory that defensive tackle play in this day and age is to defense what quarterback play is to offense, i.e. of outsized importance. If you want a good example of this, pull up any Clemson, Bama, or Ohio State game in the last five years. Or Mo Hurst highlights. Or for a more recent demonstration, the last quarter of Penn State, when I couldn't tell if anyone else was any good because the poor quarterback had only half a second to fling the ball out of the backfield before #54 was in his chest.

The film: Penn State at Iowa last week.

Personnel: My diagram:

PDF Version, full-size version (or click on the image)

Hope you print this one out because hooo boy are there a lot of guys to remember. A lot of them have site tags if you want to torture yourself with when Michigan tried to recruit them (or didn't).

The front seven are all returning starters or heavy rotation players replacing nominal ones. NT Robert Windsor (+27/-0) we'll discuss later, and I'm sure you're familiar with WDE Yetur Gross-Matos (+13/-3 against Alaric Jackson) by now. SDE Shaka Toney (+9/-6) is a pass rush sort who split time last year with the more stalwart Shareef Miller. Toney avoided a pretty clear targeting penalty late in the Iowa game that should had him pulled for the first half of ours—thanks John O'Neill. DT Antonio Shelton (+7/-3) is the guy I liked better than Windsor last year because he's more responsible. He's ceding a lot of snaps to the backups, mostly Fred Hansard (+3/-3), a very large top-250 type, and 2018 top-100 DT PJ Mustipher (did not chart).

The rotating cast of pass rushing backup ends starts with Toney's new platoonmate, Jayson Oweh (+3/-4), the #76 composite recruit last year, who did some work inside on Tristan Wirfs, and an equal amount of freshman errors in edge protection. Shane Simmons (+3/-0) was a fringe five-star back in 2016, and is only just now starting to pay that off. Daniel Joseph (+1/-0) was in the same class, just outside the top 250. They can also throw the linebacker depth chart on the edge. I mention them all because Gross-Matos limped off at the end of this game.

Linebacker recruiting clearly benefitted from going through the early part of 2016 without any. They still have some familiar faces. SAM Cam Brown (+4/-0 run, +2/-3 coverage) is the same weird, tall, anti-tight end specialist. WILL Micah Parsons (+6/-2 run, +3/-7 coverage) was last year's #5 overall player to the 24/7 composite, and the #2 prospect at weakside end. His athleticism is still well above that of a typical linebacker, but his coverage remains very much "this guy is an elite defensive end prospect"-ish, mostly because he tends to get mesmerized by the backfield and doesn't get enough depth. His slow reads don't matter as much in the run game because he accelerates like a running back. Between Brown and Parsons starts the same walk-on they put out there against us in '16, MLB Jan Johnson (+2/-0 run, DNC in coverage), who's fine, but now just technically the starter. Most of his minutes have gone to Ellis Brooks (+3/-0 run, +0/-1 coverage), a 4-star in 2017, and Jesse Luketa (+1/-1 run, +2/-2 coverage), a top-250 guy last year. Brown comes off the field often for a nickel safety, and Parsons doesn't leave it, but they'll find a few snaps here and there for #18 overall true freshman Brandon Smith (+0/-3 run, DNC coverage), who's not quite ready.

[After THE JUMP: And they all have stars]