ernest hausmann

Previously: Offense.

DEFENSIVE END

A paring of Derrick Moore and Josiah Stewart might not be particularly far off the legendary Hutchinson-Ojabo pairing from 2021. Stewart and Moore were already Michigan's top edge guys per PFF, and they were more or less indistinguishable from the departed Braiden McGregor and Jaylen Harrell in UFR grading.

Neither was exactly a star in 2023, but it's not hard to extrapolate them from very good rotation players into stars with another year of development They had pass rush win rates of 17% (Stewart) and 15% (Moore), which was good for 18th and 43rd, respectively, amongst 251 P5 edges with at least 100 snaps. Meanwhile, you may remember some grousing in this space about Stewart not holding the edge in a couple early games but once he got that figured out he was an excellent run defender.

Also: the way Michigan ran its pass rush last year probably put a cap on just how highly they could grade out. Guys like Chop Robinson and Bralen Trice are sent off the edge over and over; Michigan played a ton of games up front to take advantage of their DT's rush and a lot of snaps had DEs diving inside in ways that aren't likely to get an individual pass rush win but could, say, lead to six sacks of Jalen Milroe.

Moore in particular has a flight path that makes you expect a first round draft selection after 2024: highly touted recruit, contributes as true freshman, basically interchangeable with a draftable senior as a true sophomore, ignition time. Stewart will be entering year four and probably doesn't have the ceiling Moore does but he doesn't have to get a whole lot better to vie for All-American-level output.

The main question is depth. There is no shame in getting locked behind Michigan's elite foursome last year but it does mean we have vanishingly little data on any of the guys vying for rotation snaps been Moore and Stewart. TJ Guy did look solid in about 80 garbage time snaps a year ago.

If the main problem here is "who is the backup anchor" I think it'll be okay.

[After THE JUMP: mmmm DTs]

UFR GLOSSARY is here.

FORMATION NOTES: Bone!

Michigan's front is what I call "Split" which is not to be confused with "Split!" where the NT is on the other side of the center, or "Splits" where both DEs are well wide of the DTs. MSU also had some super-wide Walt Bell Memorial splits. If you see "Bell" in the nomenclature it means the WRs are all beyond the numbers. It signifies a team has given up all hope of offense and has hired or is ready to hire Walt Bell.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: The usual rotation with an increase in backup cornerbacks and McBurrows in the "competitive" portion of the game, with Amorion Walker in for a good third of the game and plenty of DJ Waller. German Green was only on for the last two plays/drives. Jimmy Rolder returned from injury and was the fourth LB. Keon Sabb was limited to just 7 snaps as Rod Moore played most of the game; Zeke Berry returned for late snaps.

[After THE JUMP: Having their number isn't the same as having their signs.]

9/23/2023 – Michigan 31, Rutgers 7 – 4-0, 1-0 Big Ten

On Saturday I looked at my watch halfway through the fourth quarter and said "what?" It was 2:50 PM. Michigan would strangle out the last seven minutes with a series of punishing Kalel Mullings runs and go home in an NFL time window. Which is nice, I guess, if the alternative is the networks finding a way to stick in another 10 minutes of commercials in there. It's also nice if you have to do a UFR. But it's not so nice if you're used to a certain amount of football and then there's far less of that.

Michigan's approach to the first third of the season has been to land some body blows and then get the heck out of dodge. This tweet is a week out of date now but that means it it overstates how many plays per minute Michigan is getting in after Michigan and Rutgers combined for 105 in 60 minutes, a play rate of 1.75:

Who plays fast and who plays slow in college football? Here's an updated look at the plays per minute data through Week 3:

1. Tennessee - 3.06
2. TCU - 2.82
3. South Florida - 2.81

131. Michigan - 1.91
132. Rice - 1.77
133. Air Force - 1.77https://t.co/Inp8DhJ7Mu

— Chris Hummer (@chris_hummer) September 21, 2023

The average FBS team is averaging 2.3 plays per minute, so the Rutgers game, in its entirety, was just the first three quarters of an average FBS game. It was barely more than half your average Tennessee game.

This fact combines with the second straight year of cupcake nonconference scheduling and Michigan's tendency to pull anyone with so much as a hangnail to lend the season an air of unreality. Michigan feels like they're simming this season until the Penn State game. We have not left yet the preseason portion of the schedule.

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Various members of the media have issued condescending little pieces about how the new clock rules aren't making a major impact and that commercial time hasn't increased. The argument appears to be that commercial breaks are only as intolerable as they were last year, when they were completely intolerable. Hooray?

The Alabama-Texas game officially lasted three hours and 24 minutes, of which approximately 45 minutes (not including halftime) were commercials. We compared that broadcast with three 2022 SEC games on ESPN. They followed the same format and averaged between 45 and 46 minutes. No noticeable change from last year.

This article then goes on to detail how the networks have eight commercial breaks per half of football, which is the same number of breaks an entire college basketball game has and eight more than any soccer game ever broadcast. Then were are expected to feel grateful, somehow, that there are the same number of commercial breaks being inserted into less football. I'm not sure why the authors of these pieces can't divide.

Meanwhile I've watched halftime shows in back-to-back weeks in which 1) BGSU brought their band for a full halftime and 2) Michigan had their extended homecoming halftime show; both of those events ended with 8 minutes on the halftime clock. If they wanted to cut time they could easily have adopted the same 15-minute halftime that the NFL does. But if a TV exec calls up a sports journalist these folks jump at the opportunity.

In Michigan's case, the way they play their games exacerbates the clock issues. Teams that have four-play scoring drives are seeing a bit of time roll off the clock before it stops for a touchdown or an incomplete pass or whatever. Michigan's tendency to go on long, grinding marches means there are more instances where the clock is running when it otherwise would have been stopped. This effect was even more pronounced in the Ohio State-Notre Dame game, which was largely bereft of explosive plays but featured a lot of first downs. Those teams racked up 129 plays, barely over two per minute. There were 39 first downs in that game; if 30 of them saw the clock run when it otherwise would not the new clock rules lopped the last five minutes off that game. Five minutes are reputed to be forever late in games, so while we're being told that the new rules aren't really doing anything, you could be forgiven for feeling like they're having an absolutely massive impact.

In Michigan's case this can be spun as a good thing since guys are less likely to get hurt… except apparently they're getting hurt in practice a bunch. If most of your hitting occurs when you're getting ready for the game, then the injury benefits of fewer plays are marginal. Personally, I'd like to see more things happen and fewer insurance commercials, but maybe someone who went to Medill can tell me why that's wrong.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

zing a zang zoop [Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Mike Sainristil. Jumped a tunnel screen(!) for an interception. Then flipped Junior Colson over his head, kept his balance, burst out of the pack, and ran for a 71-yard touchdown. He even switched the ball to the appropriate arm. Also had two QB hurries, bringing his pass rush win rate up to 36% this year. Took the blame for the Rutgers touchdown even though he was responsible for maybe 15 of those yards because he's a captain.

#2 JJ McCarthy. It says something about how distorted our expectations got after the first two weeks when I thought McCarthy had kind of a rough day and then the box score says he averaged 10 YPA and ran for 60 yards. After a couple hiccups early he was locked in.

#3 Junior Colson, Ernest Haussman, and Michael Barrett. Each of Michigan's linebackers came in for an eyepopping play; my favorite was Barrett shooting up into a free-releasing OL and then ripping him to the ground. Hausmann got to the sideline on an early lead stretch and blasted the RB back into Wimsatt; Colson was again ably tackling in space. Two points each.

Honorable mention: Quinten Johnson had a third-down stick and a PBU. Blake Corum was doing Blake Corum things. Max Bredeson continues to thump linebackers. Colston Loveland had a buttzone catch down the seam and several other catches besides. Semaj Morgan got a tunnel screen early and a back-shoulder TD late. Kris Jenkins blew up two short yardage conversions, though the first was called back for a false start.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

21: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers)
14: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers)
11: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers)
8: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers)
6: Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV), Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU), Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU)
5: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV), Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers)
3: Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers)
2:  Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU)
1: Tommy Doman (HM ECU), Donovan Edwards (HM ECU), Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), AJ Barner (HM BGSU), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers), Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Sainristil's weaving pick-six closes the door on any reasonable chance of a Rutgers comeback.

Honorable mention: Colston Loveland grabs a seam route, demonstrating the Ups. Michigan stuffs a fourth down emphatically, even if it didn't count.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Rod Moore misses a tackle to stake Rutgers to an early lead.

Honorable mention: JJ McCarthy's first two passes are not real great, leading to momentary doubt. Marcus Freeman doesn't put 11 guys on the field.