2021 preview

A hype video:

Steven Osentoski (MGoFish) in his own words this time.

Hello, you have reached the end. This year’s preview was just 12,428 words, a quarter of what Brian normally puts out. It managed to fit into our normal posting schedule. It had no positional previews at all. That is because…

THE STORY

As You Can See, I Can't Pay You. Glad you came back.

MISCELLANEOUS

5Q5A: Offense. Run it right or die.

5Q5A: Defense. Ohio State won’t put up 100.

Podcast 13.0A. Podcast 13.0B. Podcast 13.0C. Alex Drain and I try to talk Brian off the ledge, mostly fail.

Heuristics and Stupid Predictions. 8-4.

ELSEWHERE

Godzilla, Spencer Hall/Channel 6($):

It is hard to sit in the stands at Florida Field, with the sun six feet from your forehead, and not feel like someone is trying to kill you. The heat is a misery, the humidity asphyxiating. The press box and luxury suites’ polarized windows, at certain times of day, reflect the rays of the almighty sun directly at the student section. The older wealthy contingent of the Florida fanbase creating a death ray aimed straight at the debt-ridden youth for their own comfort is not commentary, but fact.

There’ also a drop in there about fanbases who sing brightside and schools that play the villain.

We’re Overlooking Hassan Haskins, Again, Ace Anbender/The Bucket Problem

That’s because Haskins is a rolling maelstrom of blunt objects. Tackling him up high isn’t an option unless a defender wants to be on the wrong end of an embarrassing stiff-arm. Tackling him down low can work, eventually, but it’s a commitment.

Austin Meek and Nick Baumgardner/The Athletic($):

But who had Harbaugh’s back?

That question got to the heart of Michigan’s staff shakeup. Historically, Harbaugh isn’t afraid to make changes when something isn’t working. He has employed 31 assistant coaches since 2015, more than Penn State’s James Franklin (25), Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly (20) and Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz (18). The strength coach, the nutritionist, both coordinators, the director of recruiting — all of those positions have turned over during Harbaugh’s tenure, some multiple times. Those changes created the appearance of a program constantly in flux, with no core identity to set the foundation.

“Most places cannot lose the kind of coaches that Michigan or anybody loses and expect to continue to succeed,” a former Big Ten offensive coordinator said. “There’s too much instability. You need a stabilizing factor, whether it’s the head coach and his systematic consistency, plus the influx of good players. That’s what’s made Alabama successful. They can go through coaches and still win. Michigan is nowhere near that situation yet.”

Harbaugh’s best Michigan coaching staffs featured coaches who were confident and capable enough to challenge and push the head coach but also energetic recruiters who knew the Midwest, especially Detroit. His worst? To quote one source: “Too many yes men.”

Results of The Athletic’s pre-season fan hope poll:

“I’m dead inside after the Harbaugh extension,” Chris wrote.

“To be a fan of Michigan is to be a student of pain,” Andre wrote. “And at a certain point pain causes you to pass out and not feel anything anymore. That’s about where I am with Michigan football.”

HERE

The Mindfulness Primer for Michigan Football Fans/Denard in Space

How does this work?

Mindfulness is a skill. It is not something that we can flip a switch and turn on. By engaging in mindful practice on a regular basis, we train our minds to be present, aware, and non-judgmental. This can look like guided meditation, mindful walks, mindful cooking or cleaning, yoga, etc. Mindfulness is cultivated through habit just like any other skill.

How does this apply to Michigan football?

It can be hard to be a Michigan football fan if we rely on the outcome to determine our mood. Learning non-reactive and non-judgmental responses to disappointment can go a long way to mitigating the “BPONE” levels of depression we experience after a grisly loss. In developing such a skill set, we can learn to be happier in general without the weight of a loss on our shoulders, which in turn will lead to a generally less negative discourse between fans, and thus a less toxic fanbase.

Best and Worst/bronxblue:

Best:  Coaching Not Brought To You By Zoom

The pandemic changed the nature of work for a lot of people.  Suddenly, many office workers were sitting at home, spending hours on video calls and telework as cities ground to a halt.  What was once considered the work style of freelancers and Sandra Bullock became the new normal for large swaths of people worldwide, and for the most part people adjusted.  But there were obviously still jobs that could only be done successfully in person, as they required a certain tangible engagement in order to maximize the productivity.  One such position, I have come to realize, is safeties coach on a college football team.  I’ll admit my sample size is small, but in 100% of the cases I saw of someone trying to Zoom his way through player development the end result was a completely frazzled and disastrous part of a bad defense.

College football feels like it’s over/umgoblue11:

College football always felt different to me.

Maybe it was my youth, perhaps a bit of naivety. I just vividly remember watching Desmond and Grbac and thinking how Michigan was the apex of the sporting world.

When you go to a fall game in Ann Arbor, the entire town swells with pride. Every Saturday feels like a world’s fair. No matter if we welcome Western Michigan or Wisconsin to town. You’re supporting local people, not some conglomerate.

You walk into a Jerry World or FedEx Field situated in the middle of nowheresville in a concrete parking lot that takes forever to get into and you can’t help but feel like you’re a character in the Sims or Roller Coaster tycoon— a small pawn in a game where some imaginary person is pulling levers to extract dollars from you as rapidly as possible so they can swim in an even larger Scrooge McDuck like pool. They are soulless purgatories who only exist to make one family as rich as possible.

SMOKING HOT TAKES

Several of our readers earned the right (via the HTTV Kickstarter) to share their smokin hot takes about the season. Consider this the zeitgeist of the fanbase, in the order received.

Chris Gordon: Only the penitent man shall pass. So let's run it up the middle!

Football is religion.

Craig: College football is dead! Long live college football!

This is how it’s always been.

Mitchell Tvorik: 1) Add the University of Toronto to the B1G. 2) ???? 3) Profit

I see the benefit of moving to Canada but how long do we hold out there before the SEC figures out how to cross a lake?

Andrew Sensoli: SCOTT FROST (OR HIS MOTHER) WILL GET INTO A PHYSICAL ALTERCATION WITH A PLAYER / REF / COACH / UNIVERSITY OFFICIAL THIS YEAR

He wrote this before it happened. Credit to Sensoli for writing in the spirit of the RAW takes.

mgoDAB: The truth (that Michigan is a basketball school) will set you free, but hey I'm only 26 years old. If I live to be 80 and Michigan maintains on average a 5% chance to win The Game, I should expect to see 2.7 more wins against Ohio State in my lifetime--I'll stick around for that sweet bliss.

If you’re already mentally healthy enough to be a Michigan basketball fan, I’m taking the over on you living to 80, but if by some chance Michigan wins THE GAME the kid whose dynasty we live in will just reset it.

Steve Nair: I don't think Michigan will win another NCAA championship before the game ceases to exist as we know it. I do think that, with all the conference realignments, the team will play in future Rose Bowl games that are reminiscent of the glory days.

This man lacks sufficient faith in the NCAA’s ability to keep the game existing as we know it. It’s already a century past its sell-by date, why not another?

 

Karl Haviland: Harbaugh wins coach of the year!

You realize Michigan could go undefeated and the other coaches and media would still pick some Big Ten West team that won 7 games right?

Michael Hacker: The 2020 season broke me. 3,000+ days since we beat Ohio. No hope in sight. I’m sorry, Lloyd, I take it all back. It could be worse, I suppose. We could be Tennessee or Nebraska alums.

It can always be worse.

Scott Childers: THE “COACHING SEARCH 2021” TAG WILL DEBUT ON OCTOBER 25.

It’s worse.

John Schultz: Main downtown should be closed to cars every day, forever, and "Who is LeVar Burton?" is the correct response.

There’s something alive in here.

David Glasser: For 11 months each year I remind myself that sports hurt.  Each September I still think this year might be different.

It’s your imagination.

Trevor Faeth: JJ McCarthy completes one 360-No-Scope bomb down the field against Sparty to #Disrepkt the entire fanbase.

…then downs a gallon of Muscle Milk.

Elise Griffiths: Teams in areas where they did not take the pandemic seriously had an advantage last year because they had less to think about. I think that will continue to hold true this fall, albeit not as strongly.

That’s SPICY but then just imagine Illinois could have done to Nebraska if they weren’t quarantining when the Huskers were getting in extra practices.

Jonathan Gaines: Cade McNamara will be a first round draft pick and will replace Tom Brady in Tampa when TB12 retires.

Correction: TB10.

Matthew Duane: Barring injury, Cade McNamara will be the starting QB for the entire year.

“Our starting quarterback will be the starting quarterback” being a hot take is a depressing summary of Michigan football since Henne.

David Hendershot: Congratulations to Carlos on his future Wolverine. Move those chains! Move those chains! Move! Those! Chains!

In 2021, yelling get a first down is a hot take.

[J. Edmunds (who kickstartered via an Apple ID so I can’t reach you), B. VanHulle, K. England, and D. Callahan: You didn’t submit a take, but if you email me or I see it in the comments or DMs I’ll add it.]

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FINAL THOUGHT: MENTAL HEALTH MATTERS

Speaking of mindfulness, a quick reminder that our fan hyperboles are just that. Your life won't actually be any different on Sunday. Your blood is the same color as everyone else’s. The stakes are actually low, and twenty-year-olds on scholarship don’t really *HAVE* to do very much of anything. We really do make all of that up to justify to the unaffected why we’re in such a mood, so the civilians around us won’t be blindsided as we explain how the proper application of the targeting rule is connected to why it’s not a good time to interrupt whatever we’re doing to not think about it.

We also get trolled for not surrendering to the darkness enough. The SEC’s “It just means more” commercials chastise the rest of America for not ruining our economies, for not corrupting our legislatures, and for daring to offer an education as well as a degree, as if those weren’t the very reasons people still choose to live and play here. Kirk Herbstreit recently told the stoolies we have “too many things going on” to let The Streak damage our mental health as much as it should. True, these are self-owns, phrased to cast turning the NCAA into a grift machine and building a fan culture around hate as heroic. But more than that they’re enemy invitations to a headspace where you’re both miserable, and miserable to play for. Also they’re dead wrong.

The @UMichStudents showed up tonight at the kickoff rally and were in mid-season form! They are ready! pic.twitter.com/kMTphbOlCu

— Kurt Wisenbaugh (@kwisen8109) September 3, 2021

If you’ve made it this far, you’re a Michigan fan. The feelings are real, and you’re not alone. The path you take towards an uncertain future is up to you, as is how you traverse it. One way you might go has been taken 141 times, hit a Big Ten championship 48 times, found a win over Ohio State 58 times, and we somehow figured out the rest together. It goes through that tunnel, and under that banner. Come, join your teammates, touch it, and let’s football again.

[Bryan Fuller]

[Nothing but positive comments after the jump]

Previously: The Story. Podcast 13.0A. Podcast 13.0B. Podcast 13.0C. 5Q5A Offense. 5Q5A Defense. 2020 Heuristics.

Heuristicland

Turnover Margin

The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.

			TO THE GOOD				TO THE PAIN
Year	Margin		Int +	Fumb +	Sacks +		Int -	Fumb -	Sacks -
2007	0.15 (41st)		14	15	2.46(33rd)		14	13	2.17 (67th)
2008	-0.83 (104th)		9	11	2.42(33rd)		12	18	1.83 (57th)
2009	-1.00 (115th)		11	5	1.83(68th)		15	13	2.33 (83rd)
2010	-0.77(109th)		12	7	1.38(98th)		15	14	0.85(10th)
2011	+0.54 (25th)		9	20	2.31 (29th)		16	6	1.38 (33rd)
2012	-0.69 (99th)		7	11	1.69 (69th)		19	8	1.38 (28th)
2013	+0.38(33rd)		17	9	1.9 (64th)		13	8	2.77 (109th)
2014	-1.33 (124th)		5	5	2.4 (49th)		18	8	2.2 (63rd)
2015	-0.31 (92nd)		10	2	2.5 (32nd)		10	6	1.4 (28th)
2016	+0.54 (24th)		13	6	3.54(5th)		7	5	1.69 (39th)
2017	-0.31 (90th)		10	7	3.23(8th)		10	11	2.77 (111th)
2018	+0.38 (35th)		11	6	10.5% (3rd)		9	3	5.4% (43rd)
2019	+0 (61st)		9	11	9.0% (16th)		9	11	6.1% (61st)
2020	-0.50 (96th)		2	1	4.1% (111th)		4	2	3.6% (11th)

Other than “worst sack rate in program history” how was the play? Mathlete put together an adjusted sack rate that accounted for things like opponents and the likelihood of sacks by down and distance, and Michigan’s defense was 61st if that helps you sleep better. Their offensive sack rate dropped to 45th by that measure. It was a weird, weird year.

Anyway it was not a year the turnover gods loved Michigan. If you try hard enough you can name all nine events. I can think of a could of dropped INTs along the way. The only thing I have to add is that in non-garbage time Ohio State picked up 8 of their opponents’ 9 fumbles and lost 1 of their 4, giving them the best fumble luck in the country. They were 2nd in adjusted sack rate so some of that was earned, but also 113th in adjusted sack rate (101st true) on offense so they should have given those back. Just thought you should know.

At such low samples this stuff doesn’t mean much. If you want to add “snakebit” to the jellyfish, pufferfish, striated surgeonfish, scorpion, hooded pitohui, dart frog, and Pfeffer’s flamboyant cuttlefish and Spartan wide receivers that punctured Michigan’s hide last year, be my guest.

[After the JUMP: Things that might mean more]

Previously in 2021: The Story. Podcast 13.0A. Podcast 13.0B. Podcast 13.0C. 5Q5A Offense: 2021. Last year: 5Q5A Defense: 2020. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams.

As with the offense, we are going from saddest question towards hope.

1. Do they give up 100 to Ohio State?

Not a great matchup [Bryan Fuller]

The standard has been set: If Ryan Day’s offense can’t score 100 on Michigan’s defense this year with the kind of talent they’ve acquired, he is a failure and Ohio State must jettison all of their coaches and start over. Can the Wolverines do anything to make sure that happens?

We had an entire article in HTTV about the ways Ohio State, Alabama, and Clemson have broken the game. I could show you all the data to demonstrate that those schools’ advantages are well beyond anything even in the top-heavy history of college football. It’s certainly not fun. And the people in charge aren’t even smart enough to understand it’s a problem. Michigan could “sell its soul” to be like Ohio State and it wouldn’t change the math. Kirby Smart’s Georgia is in the running for the scuzziest program in the history of the game, recruits like bonkers in the best place to do it, and even they haven’t broken through.

But we don’t really need to overcome the systemic rot of a thoroughly broken institution. We need to win a college football game. Which is way, way more doable. Last year’s Buckeyes beat IU by a touchdown, and they were in a dogfight with Northwestern until turnover luck turned both games. Penn State played them close in 2019. The year before that Ohio State got boat-raced by Purdue, barely beat Penn State and Nebraska, and needed a guy named Piggy to miss an open receiver in the endzone to not surrender the Big Ten East title to Michigan a week before The Game. The last time they visited Ann Arbor, Michigan had the ball down 2 scores with 12 minutes to go and the blocking to make it 1 score. Also JK Dobbins dribbled the ball. College football games are dumb, and Ohio State has been riding a wave of good fortune as effectual as the bad luck that’s plagued Harbaugh. We reject this because human brains would rather shape information into nonsense than accept the existence of no sense. But luck is just luck.

And here comes my one crazy statement: I think Mike Macdonald probably gives Michigan a better chance of winning a dumb football game against Ohio State than Don Brown, or at least Macdonald’s philosophy does, because it ratchets up the degree to which the result is determined by luck. I don’t believe Michigan upgraded DCs—Brown deserved his fate but he’s still a coaching legend while Macdonald is a first-time coordinator. Don Brown’s system made the ultimate sense: I dare you to beat my players at something hard. Most college teams didn’t have the talent to do that to Michigan’s talent and that led to elite performances. But even at BC, when the talent ledger angled enough the other way, Brown’s defenses got rolled.

Offenses are at such an advantage these days (for regulatory as well as schematic reasons) that anybody’s defense can get shredded no matter the talent. The smart coaches long ago learned to shift their understanding of the game from a military perspective of winning field position to the basketball paradigm of winning possessions.

Macdonald’s philosophy—or at least the Grantham/Ravens ideas he comes from—is more of a gamble. I dare you to find where I left the weak spot…NOPE NOT THERE!

Ohio State with Justin Fields could break those traps on the regular, but Ohio State with CJ Stroud? It could work. A lot of young NFL quarterbacks threw mistakes into the amorphous fronts that the Ravens showed. And this has nothing to do with the front; the way they play zone is to risk having guys out of position by having fast defensive backs get to places they weren’t supposed to threaten by alignment.

They can probably get away with that with Dax Hill.

Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson and the other mercenaries who can’t name a non-athlete graduate of the university they’re loosely affiliated with will get theirs. They're extremely talented, well-coached, hyper-football-focused players who are better than our players. In 2019 Ohio State scored a TD on 8/11 non-garbage drives against Michigan. If you can get that down to 5/11 by putting more of the game the outcome of dice rolls, do you care that those five came on coverage busts instead of a dusted cornerback? This is how Indiana approached it as well, and with even luck they win a title. If you want a nonsensical result, ratchet up the nonsense. The worst that can happen is you still lose 98-39, which isn’t going to cut it for Ryan Day.

That’s all I’ve got.

[After THE JUMP: More dumb football.]