So, last weekend was fun. The Michigan Wolverines Softball team went into the B1G Softball Tournament in Iowa City and brought the whole damn crown back to Ann Arbor with them. Meanwhile, back in A2, the Michigan Baseball team was taking another series from a B1G foe, this time being a solid Purdue team to put themselves on the verge of qualifying for the B1G Tournament in Omaha over Memorial Day. It was a fun weekend in Michigan bat-and-ball sports: 

Your B1G Softball Tournament Champion Michigan Wolverines

Things went pretty well in Iowa City! For the first time since 2019, Michigan is back on top of the B1G Softball Tournament (note: there was no conference tournament in either 2020 or 2021) as the #2 seeded Wolverines swept through Maryland, Wisconsin, and Indiana to take home the crown. It ended up being a completely busted open bracket, the most upset-heavy field I can remember in recent years. The 1st seeded Northwestern Wildcats suffered the same fate that 2018 Michigan did, losing as the top overall seed in their first game of the tournament. NU was felled by the angry Indiana Hoosiers, who were beginning their Cinderella run to the title game that flipped the narrative on their disappointing season. 

Northwestern was gone right off the bat, making Michigan the highest seeded team left before the Maize & Blue had ever even played a game. They also got a nice bit of draw luck when Ohio State and Penn State, two tricky teams in their half of the draw, were quickly KO'd before Michigan ever played either. That set up a matchup with Maryland in the quarterfinals to kick things off for the Wolverines, a bit of a pitcher's duel between Lauren Derkowski and Courtney Wyche through four innings. 

As usual, it took Michigan's hitters until later in the game to figure out the opposing pitcher, but once they keyed in, they solved Wyche pretty quickly. In a 0-0 game in the bottom of the fifth, Michigan's hitters stopped swinging at pitches out of the zone and began to work an unending parade of walks. Eventually they took the lead and then things spiraled out of control for Maryland, a hit batter and a Lilly Vallimont RBI single tossed in there, resulting in a scenario no one saw coming entering the inning: that Michigan could end it on a run rule. With the bases loaded and two outs, Michigan now up 6-0, this happened: 

The Game Ender. 🚀@AveryFantucci | #GoBlue pic.twitter.com/L4jVEoF9tN

— Michigan Softball (@umichsoftball) May 10, 2024

That's pinch-hitter Avery Fantucci bashing a walk-off grand slam to center, a 10-spot for the Wolverines in the 5th to end the game in one fell swoop. The Terps never knew what hit 'em and Michigan was off to the semifinals. Ending the game in a run rule was quietly huge for the team's chances in this event, since it helped keep Derkowski's pitch count in the 60s, saving her the energy she would need to pitch each of the next two games. Also in things huge for Michigan's chances, they received a bit of a lucky break after their game concluded, as 11-seed Wisconsin (who had beaten Ohio State the previous day) knocked off 3-seed Rutgers, setting up an easier semifinal matchup for Michigan. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: the rest of the BTT, NCAAs, and Baseball]

(Last because it needs a new name now). While updating my master roster database with this year's NFL Draft results I produced a rather striking analysis: Harbaugh's players were getting into the NFL at about twice the rate as his modern predecessors at Michigan. The data are here for anyone who wants to check my work, or you can go to my tweet storm to see the lists for Harbaugh, Hoke, Rodriguez, Carr, and Moeller.

Anyway today's goal is to explain this:

(Here's that same table if you're having trouble with the interactive version.) Blue means drafted, shaded by round. Yellow shades refer to undrafted free agents, with designations for guys who had full, long NFL careers (UDFA+), actually played in the NFL (UDFA), or just signed but never made a roster (UDFA-) with this year's guys in their own category of don't know yet. The sample includes counts scholarship players, transfers, and the type of walk-on who ascends to the Kovacsian Order of Glasgow. I also removed Xavier Worthy, though other non-enrollees who signed with Michigan are included, just because I didn't think it was right to count Worthy; YMMV.

Not counting guys still in college—and Hoke guys that Harbaugh's program probably deserves the credit for—Harbaugh's recruits are about twice as likely to sign an NFL contract, twice as likely to play in the NFL, twice as likely to be drafted, and twice as likely to be drafted in the first three rounds.

The social media explanation for this has been "player development," and there's truth to that, but it's hardly the whole truth.

What I'd like to do here is to use what we know of the players' stories to see if development was truly the big story. I suspect there's a lot more nuance here, that they were better at developing players than most, but also had some strategies for finding underrated talent, and geared their program in certain ways to make the players coming out of it more valuable to NFL teams.

[After THE JUMP let's talk about this.]

After attacking the portal with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind, Dusty May landed his second HS commitment when Lorenzo Cason signed with the Wolverines a few weeks back. 

GURU RANKINGS

On3 is the most bullish on Cason, slotting him just outside their top 150 prospects. 247 places Lorenzo just outside the top 250, and Rivals/ESPN have him firmly in "who-dat" territory. There is relative consensus in terms of size, as all services agree on 190 pounds at 6'2-6'3.

I have no basis for ranking any individual in the 2024 class, as I haven't seen enough of those prospects to have an informed opinion. But from a holistic perspective across years, I'd likely split the difference between On3 and 247. After evaluating multiple full games, I lean toward a Mid-Major/Mid-Major Plus grade. 

SCOUTING

Though I have sifted through full-game film, I have not evaluated Lorenzo Cason live. As someone that has scouted professionally for years, multiple live viewings always generate the most informed evals, so caveats apply and my word is certainly not gospel here. With that out of the way, let's get into it.

Playmaking/shot-creation for others is Cason's best facet in my opinion. He consistently identifies defensive coverages and takes advantage of the associated vulnerabilities. That is rare for a HS guard. 

In the clip below, Windermere Prep is consistently pre-rotating their weakside guard to take away the roll-man. Lorenzo sniffs that out with ease and repeatedly exploits the pre-rotation by finding the weakside teammate that has been vacated by the defense.  

And he manipulates drop coverage to optimize passing windows to create easy looks for teammates. In the clip below, Cason puts the opposing guard in jail (IE on his hip/backside) and dribbles right twice to force the opposing big to commit to him............and that allows the screener/roll-man a free walk to the rim for an uncontested layup.  

[After THE JUMP: projectable pull-up game with questionable athleticism]