It's insane they basically let a techbros give his investor pitch for graduation, but also someone died DURING THE CEREMONY and they apparently didn't acknowledge it. Just insanity.
I agree their defense seems like the calling card this season but that's so antithetical to what OSU has been under Day that I could see it go sideways if they struggle. They honestly were a defense-first team for a lot of last year and it worked somewhat well but ran into issues against the better teams on the schedule.
Yeah, maybe I'm just a jaded hockey fan but "Michigan Hockey Summer" is pretty consistent and just because Minnesota inexplicably is able to convince all of their stars to come back doesn't mean UM is insulated from it.
They got 2 years out of him and that's about what fans should expect at this point.
They made the playoffs during the weird 2020 season if I rememeber correctly, but 2021 was the year where they finished 5th in the regular season and would have likely gotten in over Cincy or UM had either suffered a late-season loss. That year they went 11-1 in the regular season and beat some big-name teams like FSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, USC, and UNC while losing to Cincy, but digging in you see that:
FSU went 5-7 (2022 they went 10-3)
Purdue went 9-4
Wisconsin went 9-4 before the wheels came off for Chryst
USC went 4-8 (next year they went 11-3 with Lincoln Riley taking over)
UNC went 6-7 (sandwiched in between 8-4 and 9-4 seasons).
So yeah, just sort of a meh season where they looked...fine on paper but I think only Cincy finished ranked and that was their one loss. They've had this ability to play "helmet" teams when they're sort of down, and the casual fan doesn't realize it.
Oh look, an article written by an OSU beat writer about how OSU did something well. Truly amazing journalism coming from The Athletic and a testament to what low interest rates and tech bros "lose money until a sucker comes by to buy you out for half a billion dollars" mindset can get you.
I don't quite get why Harbaugh and co. continue to bash certain aspects of UM and the people who are still working there. I get that his players and coaches really liked him - he seems like a good boss for football people. But I can also see how he'd be exhausting as an employee, and how he's mix it up with employers. But he left UM months ago for the NFL and AFAIK UM hasn't been taking swipes at him in the media or elsewhere.
And yet Tom Mars dragged UM a bit ago, now John is taking swipes, etc. It just seems unnecessary now; both UM and Harbaugh got a lot of good out of their relationship and now it's done, and so I don't see the value in this public jostling anymore.
Wimsatt was always a project but he maybe picked the worst spot for him at Rutgers, who basically started him as soon as he walked in the front door but then seemingly didn't do anything to help him develop. He's likely not an upgrade over anyone in the roster; if UM is going to go with an athletic, moderately accurate passer I'd stick with Orji.
The BYU guys basically having permanent COVID shirts because of their missions, and then usually being dads with 2 kids as juniors, is always surreal. It's also why I'm a bit dubious about their coaches being elsewhere, as they're used to having physically developed guys in bulk by means that aren't reproducible elsewhere.
Yeah, if UM was running OSU's offense that would be a scary depth chart (in a bad way) but given Moore's offensive proclivities that's a roster you can live with especially in a transition season.
That said, if they could shake someone else loose that would be nice. Not sure there are a lot of reasonable options still out there but even a couple of depth guys would be nice.
He's a depth guy but averages 15.2 ypc on 33 catches this year, which shows some bigger play potential. He also tore his ACL in 2022 so he was likely returning from injury last season a bit. And he's got 2 years of he wants a COVID shirt, apparently, so that's nice.
I'll save the relitigation of admissions because basically nobody totally understands it or has insights into specific cases. But I will say that it's not UM's job to make an exception for a guy who's been in college for 4 years and apparently isn't all that close to graduating. He's in the same class as Cade Cunningham and Caleb Love, amongst others, and while I'm sure there are factors involved here I don't blame an admissions office for saying they aren't going to make an exception for a 1-year player.
Yeah, that's the NCAA's rule and seemingly has been a big reason why guys don't come over to UM because of the lack of credit parity during a transfer.
It is sort of weird that a guy who's been in college for 4 years would still be a not-insignificant number of credits away from graduation at this point.
I don't really get the context of you repeatedly complaining to a cable company's CS rep about a service you keep paying them for, but to each his own.
Honestly, I am interested to know why you keep using a service you clearly don't like. Is it just there isn't another option out there for you?
Kentucky is the definition of a temporary landing spot for a lot of these guys and I fully expect he'll either decommit at some point or transfer after a year.
I suspect BJM is liked enough by players - he's a crack recruiter and has gotten kudos at UM and UT from former players as a good guy. But I do suspect some of these young guys don't see basically anyone left on the staff they know and probably want a chance to play somewhere else. I also have a sense that UM wasn't super happy with some of these guys given who they've targeted in the portal, and while that sucks it's better now that guys can move on instead of being buried for 3-4 years.
I do think recruiting at UM is in a weird spot with the staff turnover and they'll need to figure out what they're looking for under Wink and target those guys in this cycle or they're going to have a hole in the roster in a year or two.
I suspect BJM is liked enough by players - he's a crack recruiter and has gotten kudos at UM and UT from former players as a good guy. But I do suspect some of these young guys don't see basically anyone left on the staff they know and probably want a chance to play somewhere else. I also have a sense that UM wasn't super happy with some of these guys given who they've targeted in the portal, and while that sucks it's better now that guys can move on instead of being buried for 3-4 years.
I do think recruiting at UM is in a weird spot with the staff turnover and they'll need to figure out what they're looking for under Wink and target those guys in this cycle or they're going to have a hole in the roster in a year or two.
Not wholly unexpected but glad he's back. I think with a more coherent roster and role he could flourish. A big weakness IMO was his handle late in the shot clock, and if he's asked to be more of an off ball shooter and cutter he's got the athleticism to pull that off as well as be a good defender.
I've been accused numerous times of being way too optimistic abut UM sports generally and, weirdly, MBB in particular, to the point that I was rather graphically described as performing sexual acts to multiple individuals at the same time due to my zealotry, and even I think 1 7/8 seed might be a bit too high in year 1. It's not that these guys aren't talented (they are) but they are mostly players in a new system and with relatively limited experience playing together even with an offseason to prepare.
There will be hiccups, missteps, guys in the wrong place at the wrong time or not being on the same page. And a lot of them are up-transferring to one extent or another. Yes, Donaldson, Gayle, and Walters are coming from similar programs but Goldin, Wolf, and Jones are going to run into a different level of competition than they're used to, while Pippen, Brooks, and Cason are all HS kids making that transition to college ball. There are 5 guys (if you count GW III) on this roster who've played some level of P5 basketball, and even that's got caveats about playing time and effectiveness. That's actually worse than last season's roster on paper, which is sort of insane to think about.
They'll likely show growth during the year and I like the pieces they have, but I've contended that .500 in conference and on the bubble is the floor for this team, and being on the bubble would be the expectation. This year the conference was really down so .500 gets you in the 5-6 range but next year there are 4 new teams in the conference and, in theory, they'll mostly be solid teams. But a 7/8 seed this year were teams like Texas, Wazzou, FAU, etc. Not great teams but ones that had coherent approaches with more experienced (at this level) rosters. Thats what "scares" me about this team - they're are a lot of unknowns and even the floor requires them to really hit on a bunch of these transfers and signings in a way that would be great if they happened but aren't statistically a given.
I hope he finds a home in the NFL. He still has a cannon of an arm and that's something, but I remember this year thinking they really didn't trust him throwing beyond a couple yards downfield or just launching 9 routes, so he'll need a lot of development in the NFL to get on the field.
I'm surprised McGregor didn't get drafted; he seems like a guy who has the tools to be a contributor in the NFL. Same with Jones. I'm sure they'll land somewhere but a bit of a surprise.
I would love for people to explain how retaining basically everyone of note outside of Sabb and Waller is "embarrassing", but my guess is that level of discourse isn't on the docket. Kentucky has portalled something like 25% of their team this offseason and are coming off a 7-6 season. Michigan's barely lost anyone and is coming off a national title. Feels like UM is maybe a tier or two higher than the doomsayers want them to be.
Good luck to him. I suspect he'll be in contention for a starting spot at UK as well. It's a loss but UM has guys on the roster plus, hey, now they've got playing time to advertise to a guy who might want it.
Yeah, they rank him #2 and seem pretty complimentary. The positive part about him includes this:
McCarthy has been universally praised for his leadership and personality, so he should be in sync with O’Connell from the start. McCarthy has a strong arm and has displayed an it-factor on the field, notably in the Rose Bowl comeback against Alabama.
I think they like him well enough, and the (relative) lack of throws by McCarthy compared to everyone else leads some people to believe that's not "pro style" when it's more that the offense itself is quite pro-friendly but doesn't place a ton of responsibility on the QB every play.
That said, I did notice that for a lot of the other QBs the analysis of their flaws was more about the teams they were going to - Williams and Daniels barely got any "they could improve on X or have weakness Y" as much as "the Bears and Commanders are tire-fires and so these guys might have rough times of it". It's minor but McCarthy got more personal dings than the others in my reading.
I said earlier in a thread they'll probably top out at 14 but I think it could happen if teams like Nugent and Barnhart. It seems like linemen with UM's pedigree are getting some credit, and later in the draft getting a guy who's refined and can play multiple positions has value.
Yes and no - I think about a guy like Julian Flemming from OSU who wound up going to PSU instead of the draft. He's a big enough name (mostly because of his recruiting rankings) to garner some decent change in college but if he went out for the draft he'd likely be a 5th/6th rounder at best. That's unlikely to change much with another year in college but he's far more assured of getting a chance to be the focal point of an offense at PSU and possibly blow up + get paid good money instead of being buried on the bottom of a depth chart in the NFL. Whereas before the decision was between playing time in college or money in the NFL, I think the NIL makes some of those decisions a bit easier for guys who are on the fringes and might lead to more sticking around that extra year.
Sure. It's not a perfect scenario for every guy and there's benefits to hitting the league early and possibly getting that second contract. McGregor was a starter-ish last season so I sort of get him wanting to take a run at the NFL but Jones was having trouble breaking into the starting lineup and sticking for a while, so that's more suspect of a decision for him to go to the draft.
I was listening to a podcast around the NFL draft and they mentioned NIL is going to make guys who'd wind up in the 3rd/4th round more likely to stick around because they pay is better as a big man on campus at a P5 program than a bench guy in the NFL. Feels like that is also going to be the case in college sports, where guys like Dickinson would have bolted long ago for Europe or UDFA but instead can make good money at programs like KU for a while.
To an extent but Stroud didn't have a series of lower-body injuries, wasn't 23, and had shown mobility outside of the pocket at OSU to a degree that you could see it was there if he needed it.
Also, Stroud's drop off under pressure wasn't great (I think it was mid-to-low 50% completion percentage) but I saw today that Penix under pressure last year was 41% and 5 TDs to 6 picks. That's not great to a degree far worse than Stroud. And again, he's a guy with physical limits that Stroud didn't have.
Penix might buck the trend as well but I also sense that GMs might be doing what they did with Josh Allen a bit, where the one time an inaccurate QB in college became really good in the pros makes them overlook the bevy who didn't. Same with Penix and Stroud, where the one guy who really morphed into a solid under pressure guy makes people ignore the myriad of guys who turf throws with a blitz on the way
Yeah, he averages 9 ypa, more than Drake May, and had an average depth of target if 10.3 yards, which was more than Williams or Nix. The idea that 3,000 yards is some sacred efficiency number and not just a byproduct of throwing the ball 400 times a season is crazy to me. And let's be honest - McCarthy threw against something like 5 of the top 10 defenses in the country this year while most of these other guys threw against mediocre defenses regularly.
So I read that touchdown wire article because I thought "that sounds like some dumb analysis, wonder what else they think" and they gave a B grade to the Falcons for Penix and said this:
Well, this was unexpected. Michael Penix Jr. is the best pure thrower in this draft class, and he’s got a ton of weapons in his new home, but the Falcons just gave Kirk Cousins a mega-contract. It will be fascinating to see how Raheem Morris lines this all up, but Penix’s talent is undeniable if he can fix some iffy throws under pressure.
So yes, if Penix finds a way to not play poorly when the other team gets pressure on him he'll be great, which is something that applies to every QB drafted ever. I like Penix enough as a QB but at some point "he can't move and turns into a below average QB when blitzed" is a bad sign for your future franchise QB.
What also drives me crazy about the Packers is that they get the benefit of these awesome QBs and then get rid of them right when their assholishness and hubris comes out and they crater. I fully expect Love to have a 10-year HOF-level career and then turn go to the Bengals or Dolphins exactly 2 months before it turns out he kicked puppies before every game to get focused.
I posted this below but Nix threw 28% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage and had an average downfield to target of 7 yards; McCarthy was 10.3 and that's up there with guys like May and Penix and ahead of Williams.
The criticism of McCarthy is that he didn't pass enough and that the team ran the ball too much. You can (incorrectly, IMO) argue that McCarthy wasn't asked to carry a team like a 1st-rounder typically is but when asked he pushed the ball downfield, especially in the middle of the field. Having over a quarter of your passes no reach the line of scrimmage is some MSU-level quarterbacking.
I don't think he's a good QB but he has elite speed and you can do something with that; what is Nix's elite trait? He's absolutely not shown an ability to throw downfield - 28% of his passes this year were behind the line of scrimmage and he had an average depth of target of 7 yards, which is pretty bad. By comparison, McCarthy's was 10, Carson Beck was 8.5, Penix's was 13.5, and basically every other QB of note was in that 9+ range. So he's got a mediocre arm, they don't trust him to throw downfield, he's not much of an athlete, and he's old. Feels like a huge waste of a valuable pick on a guy with no real upside.
Also, my guess is Fields starts a game this year in Pittsburgh especially if Wilson gets hurt. So yeah, Nix will absolutely get a chance to start because if you draft a guy #12 and then don't let him start a couple of games that's insane and admitting defeat but I'd be surprised if Nix isn't a massive bust in a couple of seasons.
Sure, but are we sure Nix can? The big thing about the Oregon offense is it puts huge training wheels on your QB that a lot of his growth and maturity might just be a by-product of the system. I remember watching Nix at Auburn and he certainly didn't seem like a first-round pick and even this year he had those brain-fart throws where his first read wasn't open and he just threw into trouble. With Fields you at least have a guy who can run a little and Chicago was so badly coached that maybe, if you squint, you can hope to fix him in a better place. Nix feels like a known commodity who was properly rated as a third/fourth-rounder, low-ceiling/high-floor QB.
Latu is a solid edge defender in a weak year, but having seen UM against Washington's vaunted OL in pass blocking I do wonder if the Pac-12 might have inflated some of his numbers a bit. Dallas Turner here would have been fine by me as well.
Still, crazy we're basically midway through the draft and finally a defensive player was taken.
Sure, but if you want a QB for a year then I'd have talked to Chicago about Fields or Washington about Howell, two younger guys who have shown they can actually play in the NFL. And Denver has a lot of holes (thanks to the Russell trade) and now they've wasted another high pick on a guy who's ceiling is probably "average Daniel Jones season". I get Connelly's argument but I'd have taken Dallas Turner or the Oregon St. tackle then instead of Nix. It's more that you passed up better players at their respective positions than the #6 QB who was a 2nd/3rd-round pick level talent, at best.
What's also crazy about a bunch of these teams stretching for a QB is that Justin Fields, a QB who has played 3 NFL seasons and is about 1 year older than Bo Nix, was gotten for a bargain. You can't tell me that if you think you're just a QB away you wouldn't have tried riding with that guy over hoping Nix turns into a competent QB.
Yeah, it wasn't across the concensus but it's still crazy to see these guys try to defend awful picks. McCarthy at, say, #5 would have been a bit of a reach but he's a steal at #10. Penix at #20 would have been a stretch, but #8 (followed by Nix at #12) are just indefensible decisions.
He's always struck me as a guy that people talk about in terms of potential more than on-field results, and at some point you look up and you've got a 4th-year OT who's, like, the 17th-best OT in the league and you have to pay him a ton to keep his mediocrity.
Recent Comments
It's insane they basically let a techbros give his investor pitch for graduation, but also someone died DURING THE CEREMONY and they apparently didn't acknowledge it. Just insanity.
I agree their defense seems like the calling card this season but that's so antithetical to what OSU has been under Day that I could see it go sideways if they struggle. They honestly were a defense-first team for a lot of last year and it worked somewhat well but ran into issues against the better teams on the schedule.
Yeah, maybe I'm just a jaded hockey fan but "Michigan Hockey Summer" is pretty consistent and just because Minnesota inexplicably is able to convince all of their stars to come back doesn't mean UM is insulated from it.
They got 2 years out of him and that's about what fans should expect at this point.
Another tragedy. Condolences to his family.
A tragedy whenever someone this young dies. Condolences to his family.
They made the playoffs during the weird 2020 season if I rememeber correctly, but 2021 was the year where they finished 5th in the regular season and would have likely gotten in over Cincy or UM had either suffered a late-season loss. That year they went 11-1 in the regular season and beat some big-name teams like FSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, USC, and UNC while losing to Cincy, but digging in you see that:
So yeah, just sort of a meh season where they looked...fine on paper but I think only Cincy finished ranked and that was their one loss. They've had this ability to play "helmet" teams when they're sort of down, and the casual fan doesn't realize it.
Oh look, an article written by an OSU beat writer about how OSU did something well. Truly amazing journalism coming from The Athletic and a testament to what low interest rates and tech bros "lose money until a sucker comes by to buy you out for half a billion dollars" mindset can get you.
I don't quite get why Harbaugh and co. continue to bash certain aspects of UM and the people who are still working there. I get that his players and coaches really liked him - he seems like a good boss for football people. But I can also see how he'd be exhausting as an employee, and how he's mix it up with employers. But he left UM months ago for the NFL and AFAIK UM hasn't been taking swipes at him in the media or elsewhere.
And yet Tom Mars dragged UM a bit ago, now John is taking swipes, etc. It just seems unnecessary now; both UM and Harbaugh got a lot of good out of their relationship and now it's done, and so I don't see the value in this public jostling anymore.
Wimsatt was always a project but he maybe picked the worst spot for him at Rutgers, who basically started him as soon as he walked in the front door but then seemingly didn't do anything to help him develop. He's likely not an upgrade over anyone in the roster; if UM is going to go with an athletic, moderately accurate passer I'd stick with Orji.
The BYU guys basically having permanent COVID shirts because of their missions, and then usually being dads with 2 kids as juniors, is always surreal. It's also why I'm a bit dubious about their coaches being elsewhere, as they're used to having physically developed guys in bulk by means that aren't reproducible elsewhere.
Yeah, if UM was running OSU's offense that would be a scary depth chart (in a bad way) but given Moore's offensive proclivities that's a roster you can live with especially in a transition season.
That said, if they could shake someone else loose that would be nice. Not sure there are a lot of reasonable options still out there but even a couple of depth guys would be nice.
He's a depth guy but averages 15.2 ypc on 33 catches this year, which shows some bigger play potential. He also tore his ACL in 2022 so he was likely returning from injury last season a bit. And he's got 2 years of he wants a COVID shirt, apparently, so that's nice.
Welcome aboard.
I'll save the relitigation of admissions because basically nobody totally understands it or has insights into specific cases. But I will say that it's not UM's job to make an exception for a guy who's been in college for 4 years and apparently isn't all that close to graduating. He's in the same class as Cade Cunningham and Caleb Love, amongst others, and while I'm sure there are factors involved here I don't blame an admissions office for saying they aren't going to make an exception for a 1-year player.
UM basketball will survive without Davis anyway.
Yeah, that's the NCAA's rule and seemingly has been a big reason why guys don't come over to UM because of the lack of credit parity during a transfer.
It is sort of weird that a guy who's been in college for 4 years would still be a not-insignificant number of credits away from graduation at this point.
I don't really get the context of you repeatedly complaining to a cable company's CS rep about a service you keep paying them for, but to each his own.
Honestly, I am interested to know why you keep using a service you clearly don't like. Is it just there isn't another option out there for you?
Kentucky is the definition of a temporary landing spot for a lot of these guys and I fully expect he'll either decommit at some point or transfer after a year.
I suspect BJM is liked enough by players - he's a crack recruiter and has gotten kudos at UM and UT from former players as a good guy. But I do suspect some of these young guys don't see basically anyone left on the staff they know and probably want a chance to play somewhere else. I also have a sense that UM wasn't super happy with some of these guys given who they've targeted in the portal, and while that sucks it's better now that guys can move on instead of being buried for 3-4 years.
I do think recruiting at UM is in a weird spot with the staff turnover and they'll need to figure out what they're looking for under Wink and target those guys in this cycle or they're going to have a hole in the roster in a year or two.
I suspect BJM is liked enough by players - he's a crack recruiter and has gotten kudos at UM and UT from former players as a good guy. But I do suspect some of these young guys don't see basically anyone left on the staff they know and probably want a chance to play somewhere else. I also have a sense that UM wasn't super happy with some of these guys given who they've targeted in the portal, and while that sucks it's better now that guys can move on instead of being buried for 3-4 years.
I do think recruiting at UM is in a weird spot with the staff turnover and they'll need to figure out what they're looking for under Wink and target those guys in this cycle or they're going to have a hole in the roster in a year or two.
Wish him luck; it's weird to say but he's going to be on the conference slate so he'll see his old team at least once this year.
Not wholly unexpected but glad he's back. I think with a more coherent roster and role he could flourish. A big weakness IMO was his handle late in the shot clock, and if he's asked to be more of an off ball shooter and cutter he's got the athleticism to pull that off as well as be a good defender.
We only sorta knew you...again.
I've been accused numerous times of being way too optimistic abut UM sports generally and, weirdly, MBB in particular, to the point that I was rather graphically described as performing sexual acts to multiple individuals at the same time due to my zealotry, and even I think 1 7/8 seed might be a bit too high in year 1. It's not that these guys aren't talented (they are) but they are mostly players in a new system and with relatively limited experience playing together even with an offseason to prepare.
There will be hiccups, missteps, guys in the wrong place at the wrong time or not being on the same page. And a lot of them are up-transferring to one extent or another. Yes, Donaldson, Gayle, and Walters are coming from similar programs but Goldin, Wolf, and Jones are going to run into a different level of competition than they're used to, while Pippen, Brooks, and Cason are all HS kids making that transition to college ball. There are 5 guys (if you count GW III) on this roster who've played some level of P5 basketball, and even that's got caveats about playing time and effectiveness. That's actually worse than last season's roster on paper, which is sort of insane to think about.
They'll likely show growth during the year and I like the pieces they have, but I've contended that .500 in conference and on the bubble is the floor for this team, and being on the bubble would be the expectation. This year the conference was really down so .500 gets you in the 5-6 range but next year there are 4 new teams in the conference and, in theory, they'll mostly be solid teams. But a 7/8 seed this year were teams like Texas, Wazzou, FAU, etc. Not great teams but ones that had coherent approaches with more experienced (at this level) rosters. Thats what "scares" me about this team - they're are a lot of unknowns and even the floor requires them to really hit on a bunch of these transfers and signings in a way that would be great if they happened but aren't statistically a given.
I hope he finds a home in the NFL. He still has a cannon of an arm and that's something, but I remember this year thinking they really didn't trust him throwing beyond a couple yards downfield or just launching 9 routes, so he'll need a lot of development in the NFL to get on the field.
I'm surprised McGregor didn't get drafted; he seems like a guy who has the tools to be a contributor in the NFL. Same with Jones. I'm sure they'll land somewhere but a bit of a surprise.
I would love for people to explain how retaining basically everyone of note outside of Sabb and Waller is "embarrassing", but my guess is that level of discourse isn't on the docket. Kentucky has portalled something like 25% of their team this offseason and are coming off a 7-6 season. Michigan's barely lost anyone and is coming off a national title. Feels like UM is maybe a tier or two higher than the doomsayers want them to be.
Good luck to him. I suspect he'll be in contention for a starting spot at UK as well. It's a loss but UM has guys on the roster plus, hey, now they've got playing time to advertise to a guy who might want it.
Yeah, they rank him #2 and seem pretty complimentary. The positive part about him includes this:
I think they like him well enough, and the (relative) lack of throws by McCarthy compared to everyone else leads some people to believe that's not "pro style" when it's more that the offense itself is quite pro-friendly but doesn't place a ton of responsibility on the QB every play.
That said, I did notice that for a lot of the other QBs the analysis of their flaws was more about the teams they were going to - Williams and Daniels barely got any "they could improve on X or have weakness Y" as much as "the Bears and Commanders are tire-fires and so these guys might have rough times of it". It's minor but McCarthy got more personal dings than the others in my reading.
I said earlier in a thread they'll probably top out at 14 but I think it could happen if teams like Nugent and Barnhart. It seems like linemen with UM's pedigree are getting some credit, and later in the draft getting a guy who's refined and can play multiple positions has value.
Good luck to him - he was a really good assistant with the Heat.
Yes and no - I think about a guy like Julian Flemming from OSU who wound up going to PSU instead of the draft. He's a big enough name (mostly because of his recruiting rankings) to garner some decent change in college but if he went out for the draft he'd likely be a 5th/6th rounder at best. That's unlikely to change much with another year in college but he's far more assured of getting a chance to be the focal point of an offense at PSU and possibly blow up + get paid good money instead of being buried on the bottom of a depth chart in the NFL. Whereas before the decision was between playing time in college or money in the NFL, I think the NIL makes some of those decisions a bit easier for guys who are on the fringes and might lead to more sticking around that extra year.
Sure. It's not a perfect scenario for every guy and there's benefits to hitting the league early and possibly getting that second contract. McGregor was a starter-ish last season so I sort of get him wanting to take a run at the NFL but Jones was having trouble breaking into the starting lineup and sticking for a while, so that's more suspect of a decision for him to go to the draft.
I'll be honest - I kind of enjoy the insanity of the portal in situations like this.
I was listening to a podcast around the NFL draft and they mentioned NIL is going to make guys who'd wind up in the 3rd/4th round more likely to stick around because they pay is better as a big man on campus at a P5 program than a bench guy in the NFL. Feels like that is also going to be the case in college sports, where guys like Dickinson would have bolted long ago for Europe or UDFA but instead can make good money at programs like KU for a while.
Feels like a net win for everyone involved.
He's from the same class as Rubin Jones, so throwing stones is going to break some windows in Ann Arbor.
To an extent but Stroud didn't have a series of lower-body injuries, wasn't 23, and had shown mobility outside of the pocket at OSU to a degree that you could see it was there if he needed it.
Also, Stroud's drop off under pressure wasn't great (I think it was mid-to-low 50% completion percentage) but I saw today that Penix under pressure last year was 41% and 5 TDs to 6 picks. That's not great to a degree far worse than Stroud. And again, he's a guy with physical limits that Stroud didn't have.
Penix might buck the trend as well but I also sense that GMs might be doing what they did with Josh Allen a bit, where the one time an inaccurate QB in college became really good in the pros makes them overlook the bevy who didn't. Same with Penix and Stroud, where the one guy who really morphed into a solid under pressure guy makes people ignore the myriad of guys who turf throws with a blitz on the way
Yeah, he averages 9 ypa, more than Drake May, and had an average depth of target if 10.3 yards, which was more than Williams or Nix. The idea that 3,000 yards is some sacred efficiency number and not just a byproduct of throwing the ball 400 times a season is crazy to me. And let's be honest - McCarthy threw against something like 5 of the top 10 defenses in the country this year while most of these other guys threw against mediocre defenses regularly.
So I read that touchdown wire article because I thought "that sounds like some dumb analysis, wonder what else they think" and they gave a B grade to the Falcons for Penix and said this:
So yes, if Penix finds a way to not play poorly when the other team gets pressure on him he'll be great, which is something that applies to every QB drafted ever. I like Penix enough as a QB but at some point "he can't move and turns into a below average QB when blitzed" is a bad sign for your future franchise QB.
Great trade there. Love Arnold at 24.
Yeah, people crap on Manny Diaz for that game (and he deserves it to an extent) but Robinson absolutely got moved any time he tried to stop the run.
What also drives me crazy about the Packers is that they get the benefit of these awesome QBs and then get rid of them right when their assholishness and hubris comes out and they crater. I fully expect Love to have a 10-year HOF-level career and then turn go to the Bengals or Dolphins exactly 2 months before it turns out he kicked puppies before every game to get focused.
I posted this below but Nix threw 28% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage and had an average downfield to target of 7 yards; McCarthy was 10.3 and that's up there with guys like May and Penix and ahead of Williams.
The criticism of McCarthy is that he didn't pass enough and that the team ran the ball too much. You can (incorrectly, IMO) argue that McCarthy wasn't asked to carry a team like a 1st-rounder typically is but when asked he pushed the ball downfield, especially in the middle of the field. Having over a quarter of your passes no reach the line of scrimmage is some MSU-level quarterbacking.
I don't think he's a good QB but he has elite speed and you can do something with that; what is Nix's elite trait? He's absolutely not shown an ability to throw downfield - 28% of his passes this year were behind the line of scrimmage and he had an average depth of target of 7 yards, which is pretty bad. By comparison, McCarthy's was 10, Carson Beck was 8.5, Penix's was 13.5, and basically every other QB of note was in that 9+ range. So he's got a mediocre arm, they don't trust him to throw downfield, he's not much of an athlete, and he's old. Feels like a huge waste of a valuable pick on a guy with no real upside.
Also, my guess is Fields starts a game this year in Pittsburgh especially if Wilson gets hurt. So yeah, Nix will absolutely get a chance to start because if you draft a guy #12 and then don't let him start a couple of games that's insane and admitting defeat but I'd be surprised if Nix isn't a massive bust in a couple of seasons.
Sure, but are we sure Nix can? The big thing about the Oregon offense is it puts huge training wheels on your QB that a lot of his growth and maturity might just be a by-product of the system. I remember watching Nix at Auburn and he certainly didn't seem like a first-round pick and even this year he had those brain-fart throws where his first read wasn't open and he just threw into trouble. With Fields you at least have a guy who can run a little and Chicago was so badly coached that maybe, if you squint, you can hope to fix him in a better place. Nix feels like a known commodity who was properly rated as a third/fourth-rounder, low-ceiling/high-floor QB.
Latu is a solid edge defender in a weak year, but having seen UM against Washington's vaunted OL in pass blocking I do wonder if the Pac-12 might have inflated some of his numbers a bit. Dallas Turner here would have been fine by me as well.
Still, crazy we're basically midway through the draft and finally a defensive player was taken.
Sure, but if you want a QB for a year then I'd have talked to Chicago about Fields or Washington about Howell, two younger guys who have shown they can actually play in the NFL. And Denver has a lot of holes (thanks to the Russell trade) and now they've wasted another high pick on a guy who's ceiling is probably "average Daniel Jones season". I get Connelly's argument but I'd have taken Dallas Turner or the Oregon St. tackle then instead of Nix. It's more that you passed up better players at their respective positions than the #6 QB who was a 2nd/3rd-round pick level talent, at best.
Apparently Peyton Manning was a huge fan of Nix and pushed for him in Denver, which really should be treated as a black mark on his HOF career.
What's also crazy about a bunch of these teams stretching for a QB is that Justin Fields, a QB who has played 3 NFL seasons and is about 1 year older than Bo Nix, was gotten for a bargain. You can't tell me that if you think you're just a QB away you wouldn't have tried riding with that guy over hoping Nix turns into a competent QB.
Yeah, it wasn't across the concensus but it's still crazy to see these guys try to defend awful picks. McCarthy at, say, #5 would have been a bit of a reach but he's a steal at #10. Penix at #20 would have been a stretch, but #8 (followed by Nix at #12) are just indefensible decisions.
I was going to say that at this point the Falcons trading up to the bottom of the first round to take Joe Milton is absolutely on the table.
I can't imagine being a GM and taking Bo Nix over Brock Bowers and retaining your job after this season. Just insanity.
He's always struck me as a guy that people talk about in terms of potential more than on-field results, and at some point you look up and you've got a 4th-year OT who's, like, the 17th-best OT in the league and you have to pay him a ton to keep his mediocrity.