MGV,
It is "common sense" or just plain logical (usually but not necessarily the same thing).
But there is a lot more involved in a coaches decision that the parameters listed here. How have his players been performing that day (flat, hyped up, intense? Does he think the other coach will be caught off guard? Are your players or the crowd urging you to go for it? Does your "gut" say "take a chance?" Are you playing to win or are you playing "not to lose" (both have their place).
This analysis is quite interesting, but it also quite academic and has only limited application to a coaches decision making process on the field.
Does Les Miles sit on the side lines generating graphs off of MS Excel? Hell no, he's playing by the seat of his pants.
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