Why should 2010 not be another 2009?
The million dollar question that we all ask as Indiana and the B10 schedule arrives - when can we stop living under the shadow of the 2009 season and the imminent collapse of the football team?
I offer a few numbers and assumptions based on numbers to alleviate some concerns heading into the weekend.
My humble chart:
| First 4 Games | SoS | PPG | YPG | Norm-PPG | Norm-YPG |
| 2010 | 77 | 41.3 | 562.8 | 36.3 | 494.5 |
| 2009 | 114 | 37.5 | 422.2 | 34.4 | 386.9 |
Metrics:
SoS is an average of our first four opponents Sagarin rating. PPG/YPG obvious. These two numbers are then "normalized" to uninflate numbers gained by beating up inferior opponents using our toughest opponent as the equalizer - in both cases this happens to be Notre Dame.
Logic:
While Points-per-game is the bottom line all-important stat, it is less precise due to it's high variance due to turnovers and special teams plays. Yards-per-game does not determine the win, but carries a much more definite undercurrent as to how well a team is "performing" during a game. Thus, both PPG and YPG are used here.
The larger the YPG, the less likely the PPG fluctuation variance is going to flip a win to a loss (and vice-versa).
Conclusion!
2010 schedule is (as of this point) considerably more difficult than 2009's slate. Also, Michigan is outperforming it's 2009 marks by very wide margins.
Even without the BGSU yardage, Michigan would still be averaging 510 YPG. There is a marked increase in offensive production this year. Our big plays last year were from high variance situations (Forcier scrambles, Stonum kick return). Our big plays this year are from highly reproducable base offense run plays (Denard ISO, Denard Read-option).
I plan on detailing the rest of the B10 further in a chart about how we can feel about our defense the rest of the way In 2010 - but - Michigan trails only that team down south in Normalized PPG and actually leads the B10 by a considerable margin in Normalized YPG.
Michigan football is about to light up the midwest. This team is no fluke and we are not headed for a 1-7 B10 season. You can take a bowl game to the bank right now. It's just up to the health of Denard and how many mistakes our opponent makes against our suspect D that will determine which one.
September 27th, 2010 at 11:47 PM ^
Because that would suck.
September 28th, 2010 at 2:12 AM ^
What is most encouraging to me is that this offense has still not reached its full potential. If we can just have a mediocre-to-good defense in 2011 or 2012, watch out.
September 28th, 2010 at 3:04 AM ^
the reason this year will be better is TO margin and the ability to sustain long drives..
September 28th, 2010 at 4:32 AM ^
To me, that would be more telling.
September 28th, 2010 at 7:48 AM ^
Should also consider margin of victory?
September 28th, 2010 at 3:31 PM ^
Last year we didn't really have any, because Denard hadn't figure out how to reshape the space time continuum after his runs to get his passes to be good. This year he seems to have figured it out, and Tate showed in the BGSU game that he still has the ability to lead scoring drives. DG also came out strong. What team can say they have the depth of good QB's that we have? That plus our O-Line playing strong, and our receivers doing pretty well. We may not have been Big Ten tested yet, but I would venture to say that we have enough weapons on our offense to make most Big Ten defenses look silly. Stop the run, we can pass. Stop the pass, Denard will stop time. You get the idea. This years offense is much better than last year. Yes defense is a concern, but I think we have a fair chance of winning more of the games on our schedule than not. No matter what happens, I don't see a repeat of last year.
September 28th, 2010 at 5:54 PM ^
My main thoughts were the same as yours. Last year we won and got major yards on what i almost called "lucky" plays. The plays that are not highly reproducible. Yes, forcier running around and finding a receiver is great, but it wasn't the way was drawn up. This year when we gain major yards its not "luck" but on a designed play (normally) Denard power right for a 87 yard touchdown is a designed play and is supposed to go for a lot of yards. I feel that the offense is finally going how its supposed to be going.