What Comes First The Offer or the Star Rating?
Totally random recruiting question up for discussion:
What comes first, a recruits offer from a major program or his star rating? If, in fact, the recruit gets scholarship offers before the "gurus" assign him a rating aren't the "gurus" really just the recruiting teams at the individual colleges? I mean, once a younger kid has offers from many major programs isn't it much, much easier for Rivals, Scout and the like to give said kid a favorable ranking? Who are really the experts? The coaching staffs or the recruiting services?
December 13th, 2008 at 1:43 PM ^
I trust the individual coaches far more than I trust star ratings. In fact,recruiting rankings don't mean much to me other than a general indicator of program strength. Look at Notre Dame, for example. Consistent top recruiting classes, and the results on the field are disastrous. If a player gets an offer from a major program like Michigan, Texas, Florida, etc., then his star ranking will rise. It's a bit of a fluctuating standard, and I don't really put much stock in it.
December 13th, 2008 at 2:49 PM ^
so you don't trust rankings or ND coaches evaluation of talent.
December 13th, 2008 at 2:06 PM ^
?????
Right, rankings don't mean much. That's why Memphis is competing for a championships every year. Chalk up Notre Dame to poor coaching, not their recruits not being good football players.
December 13th, 2008 at 2:12 PM ^
But I think the offers for top recruits come before the ratings (at least before the ratings are published). Take Miller or Jackson, for example. Last I saw, neither had any kind of rating yet. There might be some sleepers that don't get offers until late (LaLota?), but the coaches seem to be on top of these things early. My guess is that it's the recruits that get the process going to drive the offers by sending out recruiting videos.
But I don't buy into this thought of offers driving the ratings. That might be true in some instances (see e.g., meme re: ND recruits), but there's also several players that are rated 4* for one reason or another, but that don't have a great list of offers (Cameron Gordon?).
As for who's the experts? THE COACHES! I will always trust the coaches' evaluation of talent over the scouting services. Not only because I believe they put more effort into evaluating the individual players, but also that coaches are looking to fill particular needs which may not always jive with star rating.
December 13th, 2008 at 2:37 PM ^
Well, both Jackson and Miller were in the top 200 for their class, though specific evaluations (ie, ratings) haven't been given.
Clearly, the coaches are the best arbiters of what they need. That said, there is a reason that the best schools tend to get the classes larded with the most "top" recruits - first, there's a fair amount of agreement between both gurus and coaches as to who the best players are. Second, the "gurus" do tend to adjust their rankings based upon a prospect's offer list (I don't mean in the "OMG - Notre Dame!" way, but more if a 3-star player holds offers from USC, Florida, Texas, LSU, OSU, and Oklahoma, the gurus will probably take another look at what they were doing.