The Vig: Week 6

I’ll take Iowa and the under in that game.  That should be a defensive rock fight, but I expect the Kinnick crowd to play a factor and the Hawkeye defense to create the turnover(s) they need to swing the game in their favor.  Goodson will also break off a chunk play that will lead to points, either directly on the play or paid off shortly on the same drive.

Those are some interesting lines. MSU has been good for business and that should continue this week, but 4.5 on the road is creeping up a little higher than I'd prefer. OSU is another good business play.

Ole Miss is Smooth Jimmy's ? of the Week.

I think Iowa falls short and the oohs and aahs for PSU vs OSU start immediately after. PSU seems like the more complete team and has already won in a hostile environment. I don't think theyre great, but they have playmakers and athletes all over. 

I dont know whats happening with UGA's qb situation, but.. i would take them minus the points. They bludgeon people and auburn is not good.

I badly want to take the Rut, but.. i think MSU is primed to play hard because they lost to them last year. Will happily be wrong on that!

I didn't really love anything either, this week. That didn't stop me from putting almost all of my profits from last week on the line. (I'm not a smart man)

Put 2 units on BYU -4.5

      3 units on M -3.5

and then a unit each on parlays

1 (OSU -20.5, MSU -4.5, uGA -14.5, BYU -5.5, M -3.5, BAMA -17.5) +4874

2 (UNDER 48.5 rutgers/msu, UVA ML, UGA -14.5, Syracuse +6.5, Buffalo ML, Bama -16.5, USC -4.5) +18239

Made a little last night with Coastal Carolina getting over 47 and the Rays covering -1.5.

Also had UH/Tulane over 59.5, but need Charlotte to score over 31.5 tonight to win that small parlay.

Others

UCLA -16 over the fightin' Don Browns

Baylor -3 over WVU

UTSA/WKU over 68.5

UM/NU over 52 which was an impulse bet. Not very confident in this one.

Small Parlays

#1

UH/Tulane over 59.5 - check

Charlotte over 31.5 for game

#2

UM -3 at end of 1H

Bama -10.5 at end of 1H

#3

Cuse under 24.5 for game

Ohio State over 46 for game

Pulling for Iowa as that helps Michigan's chances in the division, and being at Kinnick is where playoff dreams go to die. But PSU has been able to escape out of Kinnick several times in the last few years and win. Granted those Iowa teams were not as good as this one, and they had Barkley in 2017, but PSU is the more complete team. Gun to my head, I'd say PSU by a field goal. 

Bama is going to rolllllll over A&M. That game won't be close. 

As for Michigan, blegh I don't know. I've been going back and forth on this all week. They are definitely the better team, but on the road, at night, against a team desperately looking to prove itself, with an even more desperate coach looking for a defining chance to prove he should keep his job. Winning this game would be it. Martinez is far and away the best QB Michigan has played up to this point and probably will be the best offensive player it sees up until OSU. 

If this was in Ann Arbor, I'd feel confident in predicting Michigan by 10-14 points. But its not so I have no freaking clue. If Martinez has time to operate, this game will be close going deep into the fourth quarter. They are much better than their record indicates. 

If I had to pick, Michigan survives and gets out 31-24. But I have no idea. If Nebraska pulled off the upset it wouldn't be a huge surprise. 

Take Rutgers +4.5.  They could go either way this week.  Completely quit after the last 2 weeks or regroup and right the ship.  We'll see.

Iowa -1.5.  I think their defense shuts down PSU.  Can their offense do enough?

ND -1.5 at VaTech.  VaTech is not scared of ND.  I could see them running away with this.

I like MSU -4.5 but I always have "maybe this is the week they stumble" in the back of my head.

I like Iowa to cover 1.5 points.

I like Michigan to cover the 2.5 points.

And I think the Alabama death star will beat up on TAMU and easily cover.

This is what I locked in early this week in the Vig recap thread.

Coastal -17.5 over Arkansas St.  (also had Q1 and 1H). All winners

Texas +3.5 over Oklahoma

Georgia -14 over Auburn

UCLA -16 over Arizona

UTSA +2.5 over W. Kentucky 

2 team parlay Central Mich -5 and Miami OH -1.5

Added a few over unders 

Stanford/ASU over 51.5

Oregon St./Wash St. over 59.5

Georgia Southern/Troy under 50.5

Always Bama game -15.5 and 1H (-10.5)

Good luck everyone!

It's absolutely nuts that Nebraska is favored by 3.5. Nuts.  I would put it at Michigan -8.  Vegas still hasn't caught on.  At least the national title odds are now 30-1, up from 50-1. 

Here's my slate for the week.

Penn State ML +105  - $25

Alabama -17.5 - $100

Notre Dame -1 - $25

SMU -13.5 - $100

Wake Forest -6 - $25

Texas +3.5 - $25

Charlotte -3.5 - $25

A few others that I haven't done.

OSU -21.5  Should have done it at -21. I didn't so I'm staying away.

Michigan -3.  Still thinking.  Its gross betting on them.  And they've screwed me in the past whether i needed them to lose or win.  But I am1-0 this year on them.

Arkansas +5.5.  I disagree with OP.  I think the run game for The Hogs can help them cover.  Ole MIss run defense is bad.

I really love a 1st half team total for Auburn if i can find a number over 14.  I would hammer the under on that all day.  Bo Nix is in for a very bad day. 

Florida/Vandy U 59.5 - Georgia called the dogs off but that was only 62-0.  Why wouldn't UF do the same?  I kind of like this rather than the spread.  Haven't bet it.

And a Bonus NFL pick (caveat:  I am negative the NFL this year, but still + overall.  CFB going well)  Teaser with BAL -1 and NE -3 - $150

I really like BYU and GA laying the points, same with TN in the NFL.  Other games I am thinking about - M (I hate betting them, though) and CUSE Moneyline.

last week record 5-3.  Season record 17-18.

Tonight:

Charlotte -3.5

Stanford +13

Saturday:

West Virginia +3

Texas +3.5

Wisconsin -10

SMU Mustangs -13.5 

Iowa -1.5

Oregon St -4

Memphis/Tulsa Under 61

I couldn't help myself.  There was nothing else on the board I loved, so my one play of the week is arguably the worst game of the week: Massachusetts +3 against Connecticut.

My rationale was as simple as "take the underdog, neither of these teams really deserves to be favored ever."

Rutgers to beat MSU

michigan will cover

Alabama will not.