You say Branden I say Braiden
I thought, “holy shit I didn’t know he had such a highly ranked brother.....Awesome!”
Then it started to sink in.
Oh well. All the best players in Michigan go to Michigan. Don’t they Maizen?
I dont know about a brother... but I do remember he had some sisters.
And don’t even get me started on Gregor McBranden . . .
22 commits, only 6 in the top 300. Not exactly the ratio I was hoping for at this point.
What is the ratio you expect? Genuine question; not snarky.
EDIT: I ask this question with the underlying notion of where we want to be (top tier - Alabama, Clemson) is an unrealistic expectation given their success on the field, success sending talent to the NFL, academic requirements, and location relative to recruits. That may be where we want to be, but it's unrealistic to expect that outcome today.
So, what's our true natural competitor set and therefore baseline expectation? Notre Dame? Penn State? Then we can decide if we're outperforming/underperforming against expectation.
Frankly, I think given UM's results, standards, and location, 6/300 feels about right.
50%. Thats the minimum necessary ratio to win national titles.
EDIT: I saw you edited your post to say that expecting anything more than where we are at currently is unrealistic. I am here to tell you it is not. I've been following UM recruiting since the Tom lemming days. UM regularly signed top 5 classes in the 1990's and early 2000's. At the very least they were always in the top 10. Then Rich Rod happened and everyone's expectations have gotten re-adjusted. The reality is even Brady Hoke signed the #5 and #6 classes in 2012 and 2013, and people forget he had the #1 class in the country for awhile in 2015 before the wheels came off.
Furthermore you are looking at this all wrong. Losers make excuses for what they don't have, winner look at what they do. World class academics, the largest stadium, sterling brand new facilities, NFL coaching staff, a rich football tradition unmatched by 99.9% of schools out there. And the in-state talent has only been getting better.
When Harbaugh was hired I expected we had our Nick Saban. So did most other UM fans. The reality is he's been more like Lloyd Carr minus the natty and conference titles. I'm not going to re-adjust my expectations because that would make people happy. This is Michigan, beating OSU and winning conference titles is expected. To do so we need to recruit better. Period end of story. Let's not make excuses for the most prominent team in an almost $200 million dollar athletic department.
Michigan had a 57% BC ratio last year. 9th best in the country and 4 of those ranked above them (USC, FSU, LSU, Auburn) were worse than Michigan and 3/4 teams below Michigan (Texas, OU, PSU, ND) who were over the 50% line.
In 2017 Michigan had an even higher BC ratio and was worse.
As for ESPN, not the most trusted recruiting service so let's look at the guys individually and their recruiting rankings on the whole.
The 247 Composite had 382 Blue Chips in 2019 so let's go with guys in that range:
McGregor - 81 in the Composite because Rivals has him ranked 11th in the State of Michigan while the other services have him in their top 30 nationally.
Henning - 80
Mullings - 147
Morant - 159 Because Rivals has him as their 20th Safety while the other 2 sites have him as #10 and #1 respectively.
Corum - 201
Seldon - 254
Zinter - 272
Savage - 298
Johnson - 328
Wilson - 331
Hill-Green - 364
So that's 11/22 right now as they count Garcia as a recruit when he probably won't actually play football.
Then you have another couple of guys right below the 382 line:
Atteberry - 389
Persi - 394
So they're at the 50% mark with more guys likely to move up across the board (McGregor, Morant Hibner, Mohan, and Persi).
Still in on Paige (244), Moten (325), Green-Warren (197), and Greene (306).
If you're arguing guys like McGregor and Morant should be higher than their composite because of their rivals rankings, then you should have no problem admitting guys like Johnson, Wheeler, Savage, Mohan, and Mazzcua should be lower because 247 is not high on any of those guys AT ALL.
I posted this yesterday but in the last 4 years OSu has signed 39 top 100 recruits and Michigan has signed 11. I don't care if Harbaugh is the reincarnation of Vince Lombardi he's not competing with that type of talent disparity in a year in and year out basis.
Johnson
Was the backup to Rattler. 4 star in Rivals and 79 in ESPN (80 is a 4 star). The spread on him is nowhere near the spread on McGregor and Morant. But I'd tend to go with 247 more than the other two, yes.
Wheeler
I didn't even bring him up in this conversation because he's below the blue chip line anyways.
Savage
Similar to Johnson. 4 star in Rivals and 79 in ESPN. 88 in 247 so again the spread is tight.
Mohan
Tweener who had OSU in the hunt. Hudson was a 3 star too (though he was actually scouted as a Safety so that helped) and Mohan is the perfect Viper. Also, he was below the blue chip line so I didn't include him in the 50% positive number.
Mazzcua
Again, below the blue chip line. Everyone has him as a 3 star.
I posted this yesterday but in the last 4 years OSu has signed 39 top 100 recruits and Michigan has signed 11
If you want to move the goalposts away from your original Blue Chip argument... ok. And as I said, Michigan is still in on another 3-4 Blue Chip guys off the top of my head. For every 1 of those Blue Chip guys they could sign another 2 outside of the top 382 and stay within that 50% mark.
There's no goalposts being moved. There are 6 ESPN 300 commits in the class. There are 6 Top 247 commits in the class. There are 11 4 stars and 11 3 stars in the class according to the 247 composite. It's the bare minimum blue chip ratio (per the composite, not espn or 247) to even have a chance at a national title. If you think that's good enough to beat OSU let alone win a national title, then great. I happen to think UM needs more given the evidence we've seen the last 4 years on the field.
There's no goalposts being moved.
"Michigan has to be above 50% Blue Chip Ratio to compete for a NC."
-> Ok, Michigan is above that and has been so for years. As are some programs that are worse than Michigan.
"Uhhhh..... Michigan hasn't out-recruited OSU."
Definition of moving the goalposts. Jesus.
There are 6 ESPN 300 commits in the class. There are 6 Top 247 commits in the class.
And Rivals has 12 in the Blue Chip category (out of 21 because they don't count Garcia) so I guess it's really smart to look at 1 site individually rather than each player individually and their circumstances. Persi? 4 star. Wilson? 3 star. Wheeler? 4 star for some reason. Rivals has it's problems as does 247 and ESPN. It's why the Hello posts are as big as they are.
There are 11 4 stars and 11 3 stars in the class according to the 247 composite.
11/22 is... 50%. And again, that includes Garcia. Plus, the well known remaining guys on the board that Michigan is after all happen to be in the Blue Chip category.
If you think that's good enough to beat OSU let alone win a national title, then great.
No, I'm not a moron who makes strawman arguments. I know they have to do better but I also know that when guys like Don Brown look at Mohan and say "gimme" that they have a better track record than some guy on Mgoblog.
I happen to think UM needs more given the evidence we've seen the last 4 years on the field.
I already know the response to this, but 2016 was a 2 OT game in Columbus with a QB who had a separated shoulder and they still led for 95% of that game. 2017 was JOK saving OSU from a humiliating loss. Wins and losses are what matters most, but if we're going to nitpick over the 375th ranked guy being a blue chip and not the 392nd, then we're going to nitpick on the field results as well.
I already know the response to this, but 2016 was a 2 OT game in Columbus with a QB who had a separated shoulder and they still led for 95% of that game. 2017 was JOK saving OSU from a humiliating loss. Wins and losses are what matters most, but if we're going to nitpick over the 375th ranked guy being a blue chip and not the 392nd, then we're going to nitpick on the field results as well.
Hooray for moral victories?
Maizen, you really are an insufferable prick.
People hate him but Maizen is more or less correct. We need to recruit better. This season is huge for recruiting. Probably the biggest since Hoke in 2014. That went poorly. But if Michigan wins the big ten and beats OSU then it’s on in recruiting. Win a playoff game, or at least lose a close game and even better. I’m not even going to entertain the idea of winning 2 playoff games this year but it is possible.
Harbaugh is recruiting well, he needs to recruit great.
Getting hamblasted by OSU last year is really showing up in recruiting this season. A trip to the playoffs should remedy that, but I'm not willing to bet my mortgage on that...
We're currently 7th in the Composite. We were 8th last year. What evidence do you see that the hamblasting is having any effect on recruiting?
Already dropped a stop in two days. We definitely aren't going to finish in the top 10, probably closer to 15th. We have one top 100 recruit according to 247 & the 247 composite. Last year we finished 8th with 3 players rated higher than our highest rated 2020 guy, including two 5-stars. And it's not like we are in the conversation for any of the other top 100 guys.
Why is it such a bad thing to acknowledge that this year is going to be a step back in recruiting? Maybe it has nothing to do with getting our cheeks beat by OSU again, but I find it hard to believe that didn't take the wind out of the sails a bit. It's not like it's impossible to turn it around, but IMO we will have to do it on the field if we want to turn it around on the recruiting trail.
It's possible to simultaneously believe that Michigan needs to recruit better if they want to compete with the Alabamas and OSUs of the wolrd AND not be a complete fuck head about it. A lot of people manage to pull that off, but Maizen can't or more likely doesn't want to.
Getting killed by OSU last year and then looking like shit in the bowl game is going to put a natural ceiling on the team's recruiting. I think the recruiting is actually rather good given that Gattis just barely replaced Pep - a guy who seemingly couldn't coach or recruit worth a shit.
You should take a break from the board if you're going to continue calling other people names and get this upset over innocuous recruiting posts.
I’m not upset. I’m simply telling you, very clearly, how 99% of the people on here feel about you. You’re an irritating asshole who won’t go away.
No you're very upset - just look at your posting history the last few days, this is consuming you to the point of it being unhealthy and disturbing. People are allowed to have opinions different form your own here, you will like some and you will dislike some. That's life in general. If it bothers you to the point where you are calling other people fuckheads and assholes and dropping f bombs then I suggest you take a break, or at the very least ignore the people who are causing you so much emotional distress. At the end of the day we're all UM fans and want what's best for UM. I've been nothing but respectful to you in the face of you calling me names and shitting on every post I make. So please change your behavior for your own sake.
Look at the length of your reply, Maizen. You're the upset one. Upset that someone is calling you out directly for the miserable turd that you are.
The sad thing is that you, under all your various log ins, seem pretty knowledgeable about football. I also tend to agree with some of what you post. However, you just have a godawful personality that nobody can stand.
This is rich--you telling someone else that "this is consuming you to the point of it being unhealthy and disturbing." Here you are AGAIN making the same points AGAIN on the same topic AGAIN ad nauseum AGAIN. You have been booted off who knows how many times anymore but keep coming back to beat the same dead horse the exact same way.
And the problem is that you offer nothing constructive beyond "Michigan needs to recruit at the level of OSU or Alabama to win a national title. It's the ultimate one trick pony posting trick. And it's old.
Time to take your own advice and "change your behavior for your own sake."
It's a bit of a chicken vs. egg problem. Great on-field results yields great recruiting results but the inverse is also true.
While I do somewhat agree with Maizen (that we need to recruit better) - I think the real solution is to WIN. PERIOD
Beat OSU, hang some some conference titles, make some playoff appearances and then recruiting will really start to take off. Where I disagree with Maizen, is that I believe we already have enough talent to compete and beat OSU and almost any other team in the country. From a talent perspective, If we were to play OSU 10 times, we might win 3 or 4 of those games (maybe 1-2 if you're a pessimist) - now we have to make that 10-40% chance happen, and hopefully more than once. Once we do that, we start to shift those probabilities over time.
Lastly, I get that it's our right as fans to complain about recruiting, but I don't think it's a very strong argument. Given our recent track record, and not even factoring-in bagmen and other shenanigans, our recruiting is as good if not significantly better than shoudl be expected. If we want to tick back up to consistent top 3 or top 5 recruiting classes --- "Just win baby"
Playing a fun and exciting brand of football would also help. Elite kids want to win games that matter and highlight their skills for the NFL crowd. The defense has been set up to do that for a while, and it shows both in recruiting and in the NLF draft. Now hopefully the offense will be similarly set up.
"UM regularly signed top 5 classes in the 1990's and early 2000's. At the very least they were always in the top 10. Then Rich Rod happened and everyone's expectations have gotten re-adjusted."
....then....
"When Harbaugh was hired I expected we had our Nick Saban. So did most other UM fans. The reality is he's been more like Lloyd Carr minus the natty and conference titles. I'm not going to re-adjust my expectations because that would make people happy."
So, let me get this straight: you feel UM needs to return to it's 1990's and early 2000's performance (when Lloyd Carr was coach) and you won't apologize for not reaching this standard, yet you also dock Harbaugh because he is performing only as good as Lloyd Carr (who was coach during the apparent golden age you speak of in the 1990's and early 2000's)....?
Lloyd Carr won five B1G titles, a national title, and beat Ohio State six times. Unless I'm mistaken Harbaugh hasn't done any of those things. So I'm not sure why you think he's performing as well as Lloyd Carr. I think my statement stands on it's own about him being like Lloyd minus the conference titles and success against OSU.
In your own words, "in reality he's been more like Lloyd Carr..."
You are also judging Harbaugh's four year tenure against the entirety of Carr's, which is not a fair comparison, especially when Carr coached for over a decade and inherited a program that had won 3 B1G titles in 5 seasons while Harbaugh inherited a program that hadn't won a conference title in a decade, and whose previous two coaches combined to win 8+ games in a single season only TWICE over a seven year span.
Look at the program Urban Meyer inherited at Florida. Look at the program Saban inherited at LSU and Bama. Look at the program Stoops inherited at OU. Look at the program Dabo inheritted at Clemson. We can do this all day. Elite coaches win big and fast.
Saban - GOAT; not quite a fair comparison. If you expect every coach Michigan hires to be the greatest coach of all time in the history of college football, you are going to live a severely disappointing life as a fan.
Dabo - took seven full seasons before he won a NC at Clemson with only ONE conference championship before that year; "Clemsoning" was a common term in that era which referred to a team that routinely underperformed
Stoops - Perhaps top 10 coach all-time
Meyer - perhaps top 3 coach all time (and riddled with off the field issues); not to mention, a direct competitor to Harbaugh. Carr never had to coach against another coach of this caliber, let alone at OSU
It's real easy to cherry pick all-time coaches to downplay the success of another coach. It's not nearly as easy to turn a program around at the drop of a dime. If that's what you expect, get used to mediocre records for a few decades while the program cycles through guys they don't give a chance to build something at a university with high academic standards that immediately eliminates a good portion of top athletes from attending.
Yes, that is what the article says. And the only way that the current team does not meet that expectation is if you didnt read it. Or choose to reset the goal posts, just like you did with your edit.
The article only refers to 4 and 5 stars, not top 300 or top 247 lists. Going by the 247 composite, michigans last 4 classes are:
2016 14 of 28
2017 21 of 30
2018 7 of 19
2019 16 of 26
For a total of 58 of 103 which math tells us is above 50%. If you want to withdraw transfers, the article didnt do that either.
And ill edit too. The article did not say each individual class was over 50%, just that the roster was. So quit moving that goalpost.
Keep on maizen though!
-1 for “natty.”
Do you have to exist?
Lloyd did take over a team that was conf. champ three of the previous 5 years, not a team that had been floundering for a decade.
for whatever that's worth
Please, just ignore him.
This board doesn't need those discussions. We've had them too many times already and he revels in them.
How do you fucking live like this bro
Like, for real
Oh fer fuck sakes, you couldn't go two months, two months without this bullshit! Get a life!
Oh fer fuck sakes, you couldn't go two months, two months without this bullshit! Get a life!
Fuck it. The double post stays!
It needed to be said twice
You're such an insufferable dick head.
I reported it to the mods.
What is it on 247? ESPN rankings shouldn’t even count in the composite
6 out of 22 are in their top 247 (non composite).
McGregor, Morant, Henning, Mullings, Wilson, and Lewis.
For a comparison, OSU will have 11 top 100 composite players alone in their 2020 class after Bijan Robinson and Kourt Williams commit to them next week. Michigan has signed 11 top 100 composite players in the last 4 years combined.
Ok. So what? Harbaugh beat Pete Carroll’s USC teams at Stanford, with a similar perceived talent differential, he’ll have to do it again.
That's crazy. If one didn't know any better, you'd almost think OSU has been putting a far better product on the field than Michigan has lately. Or that they're the only premier FBS school in a talent rich state. I don't post on here often but I'm so bored of you getting on here on every fucking recruiting post and essentially bashing the guys we have.
All that bullshit about academics, the largest stadium, rich history, NFL coaching staff.. that only gets you so far. These kids want to compete for national titles. Until Harbaugh proves he can win at that level, Michigan isn't going to recruit at an elite level.
Furthermore, what do you think your constant bitching about it is going to fix? What if we all acted like you? Is the University going to fire Jim Harbaugh because he can only put together top 10 classes and win 75% of his games? What kind of life do you lead that you have to constantly come back to a site and group of people who just want you to go away?
Think would have been so different had Wilton not gotten hurt against Iowa in 2016. Michigan would have beaten Iowa, edged out OSU then gone into the playoffs. Not saying they would have won the playoffs but that would have given them a boost.
Then if Wilton had stayed healthy in 2017 they would have beaten OSU two years in a row...then you are talking about getting quite a few more top kids and be in a totally different place.
Speight got hurt on the second to last drive of the game against Iowa. Michigan also had the lead when they went back out on defense for the final time. Maybe they beat OSU and maybe they don't in 2016, but in 2017 A LOT of people wanted Speight benched because he was playing so poorly. The "ifs" are getting old.