Theory: The more uncertain the times, the earlier the verbal commit

I have been following recruiting for several years now and can never recall so many early commitments across the nation.  In order to explain this phenomenon, I've come up with a theory, the more uncertain the times, the earlier the verbal commit.

I think it is fair to say that we are in uncertain political and ecomomic times, but I am not sure what indicators to use to measure recruiting commitment counts against.  President's approval rating? Election year vs non-election year? Stock Market Index? Gas prices?  Check regoinally vs nationally?  BTW, Michigan is a good example, since it is a hard hit state with a very high number of quality commits very early in the year for both of the big 2 football schools in the area.