Rivals QB Reranking ... Not So Fast
In a free Rivals Q&A a question is asked about reranking the QBs after the elite 11.
http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=967128
I have posted this before (buirred now) but Rivals answers as follows: "All of the quarterbacks at the camp are definitely being re-evaluated right now here at the camp. I can already tell you from seeing things through a day and half of the camp there we could see some changes in the next rankings update. We're going to shoot for another update about a month from now, after we come back from other major events like Top Gun and the Gridiron King Camp. -- Barry Every "
In the same article, Every also says that players are first rated within their positions (with QB going first) then blended into the 100 and 250. There is no doubt that the rankings of QBs were set long before the E11 started.
Everyone take a deep breath, exhale, and sleep easier knowing that Garner is VERY likely to move up...Now, with that being said, do we think DG gets into the Rivals 100? Gets a 5th star? Moves ahead of Brunetti as Rivals #1 Dual Threat?
Discuss
Gardner gets his fifth star, and becomes not just the #1 DQB but overall, the highest ranked QB in the nation, since this is an "off" year for QBs.
More realistically, I say he gets into the 60-80 range in the Top 100 and becomes the #1 DQB.
Gardeners star ranking, either a 4 or 5 star, really matter to us? Does it really have an impact on other recruiting?
Like all aspects of football, its just a competition thing. Its nice to know you've got the #1 in anything -- whether its dual-threat QB's, the top rated beer-pong player, or the hottest chick at the party. Going after #1 and getting it, is all that matters.
And, if you feel like you need to post a "does it matter" question -- please don't. Because no one cares about your question.
If no one cares, then why did you respond? Jackass.
I think this is a great question. If we are so sure that he is going to be a great player- and I for one feel he has the potential to be one of the best QBs to put on the winged helmet- then why are we so infatuated with the recruiting services agreeing with us? I think that we are too caught up with how other people see our recruits, when we are clearly content with calling Gardner a stud. Just saying, I think that if most people who see Devin Gardner compete at camps come out calling him the most impressive player at Quarterback AND Wide Receiver, then that is enough information to be confident that we have one of the better players in the nation on our hands, regardless of what Scout or Rivals says.
Well, also I don't think that we want to hear why Gardner may be ranked lower. We want to hear why he is a blue chipper/5 star recruit. If he is ranked lower then some of nus may be forced to hear why he isn't ranked higher and then consequently start to doubt him.
This is a good point. Would we be so convinced he's going to be a super star if he had committed to Ohio State?
because his talents would be wasted in Tressel's soon-to-be-anachronistic offense.
Color me pessimistic, but Tressel's offense seems to have done well up to this point. It may not be the new shiny spread, but he has put together some fine scoring teams. I don't see them falling off a cliff any time soon just because he doesn't run primarily out of a spread. Maybe that's just me though.
Here's osu's ranking of total offense for the past 6 seasons. I guess I'm having a hard time agreeing with what you said when given this data. Outside of having a QB named Smith, I'm failing to see where "putting together some fine scoring teams" comes into play.
2008: #76
2007: #60
2006: #15
2005: #38
2004: #103
2003: #97
I stand corrected.
Just in case any of you were wondering how UM stacks up during that time span, it ain't purty.
2008: 109
2007: 75
2006: 33
2005: 55
2004: 46
2003: 12
I really thought the UM offense was better than what the rankings show.
What was WVU's offensive rankings during that time?
Total Offense
2008: 59
2007: 15
2006: 5
2005: 50
2004: 26
Scoring Offense
2008: 73
2007: 9
2006: 3
2005: 31
2004: 29
Don't know about 2003. The site I use only has aggregate data going back to 2004. I'm sure a google search could procure the information but I'm lazy.
Excellent use of anachronistic.
Not only that, but think of it this way. You see how we, as 18-45 years old drool all over these rankings, think about high school kids in the same class, and even younger guys. I bet they're looking at them more than we are. If you're a great WR, seeing that UM hauls in a 5 star QB may make UM more appealing to that prospect. Snowball effect???
why are we so infatuated? i don't really think it's us (although it could be) i know it's not me. the thing that makes me "infatuated" about scout and rivals agreeing with us is the fact that ,i belive, that the rankings do have some bearing and influence on the 17 yr old recruits sitting at home looking at the websites and seeing who's going where and where they are ranked, especially if they have more than just one favorite college to go to. i mean don't kids want to go somewhere they have talent that's gonna be playing along side them?
Yeah, but everyone likes their own recruits. Having an outside neutral source affirm your infatuation is at least reassuring.
I don't think it matters, but stuff's a bit weird this year. Nick Hill is a 5.7 with offers from EMU/CMU/Stanford/MSU. Austin White is a 5.6 with UM/LSU/Iowa/Wisco offers. That's just...not quite right.
I prefer that the players that are committed do well at camps and against higher rated players. Whether or not Rivals/Scout re-rank them higher is a very low concern relative to their actual performance.
Brunetti, realizes he is no longer number one, notices he's a midget, moves to slot, and commits to UM.
Hmm, alot of the newer posters on these boards have been obsessed with star rankings; I sense scout and rivals board members making a move over here...
I don't care much for star rankings at all. A Michigan man is a Michigan man. It's pretty much what MrVociferous says. It just kinda looks better if a player you know is great, is acknowledged for his achievements.
And it gets hella annoying when buckeyes and spartys go like
"OMGZZZ ALL YOUR STAR RANKINGS ARE BELONGZZ TO UZZZZZZZ!!!11`!1~~1!`1"
Then hella ignore it. It's a bit like arguing with a child really. People like that don't see reason and logic doesn't matter.
Most of the time the people that are bothered by comments that much are the same ones that would be gloating if the tables were turned.
This is all opinion anyway, but if it matters at all, the counselors at the Elite 11 camp didn't rank Devin Gardner in the top 5.
http://sports.espn.go.com/highschool/rise/football/news/story?id=4352245
Yeah I saw that yesterday. Gardner will be good, but everyone needs to get off this idea that Gardner should be 5 star/ super recruit because one site rated him the best prospect in one camp. Just be happy we're getting a great athlethe that fits our offense perfectly.
Wait...people should stop clamoring that Gardner should be a 5-star on Rivals because Rivals named him the best QB at a camp full of the best QBs in the country?
I generally don't give a crap about rankings, but Rivals is definitely in the wrong here. I don't think Gardner is a 5-star (yet), but there aren't 170 players better than him. He is a top 100 prospect (and probably will be when Rivals updates their rankings again next month). Everybody in the state (except the lunatic fringe of the Spartan fanbase) knows that Gardner is a better player and better prospect than Boisture, and Rivals has had them far apart in the rankings for a while now...and then last night the guy they sent to cover the Elite 11 ranks Gardner #1 and Boisture #12. That isn't something that just magically happened overnight. Gardner's always been better than Boisture, and Rivals has refused to acknowledge that until recently.
I don't think the word "wrong" can be used to describe something so subjective as ranking and evaluating 16 & 17 year old quarterbacks.
Yes, the rankings are subjective. How do you explain the disparity between his ranking out of the elite 11 and other camps, and his overall ranking? He did not just suddenly get that good.
Well, his overall ranking was done before the Elite 11 Camp ended, I believe. It is possible that Gardner has improved since his last evaluation. It is also possible that many of us just tend to think that our own commits are better than they may actually be, don't you think? Remember how so many fans were convinced that M. Rob & Ricardo were both going to be five star, top 100 recruits before the initial rankings and evaluations were released a few months ago?
I wasn't as big on Ricardo as I was/am on MRob. But, I'm gonna have to agree to disagree about Gardner's ranking. He has obviously improved a ton since last year, but his ranking was after he had already camped twice(?), and killed it both times. I guess I'll just have to wait and see where he ends up, not that it "matters", I guess.
For the record, I'm not saying Gardner's ranking is right or wrong. It just seems somewhat pointless to debate the ranking of a kid who has yet to play his senior season of high school football, imho. His rankings can (and probably will) change fairly soon as long as he continues to impress.
It's July. In all likelihood, Inkster will win the state title again and Devin will have ample opportunity to show the world how good he really is. He's definitely high 4* material and I'm confident he'll get to that point by signing day.
Inkster lost to EGR in the Division 3 title game, but yeah they will compete for the title again, even without Gordon
Especially if Ricardo does go there, as some have speculated.
I thought that was just wishful thinking?
It was mentioned as a possibility in the Free Press, so I believe it is one. I think Inkster accepts out of district students, so not living in Inkster shouldn't be a problem.
That's not where he's going. He wants it to stay quiet for now, but it's not Inkster, I'll tell you that.
I'll assume it's a Washtenaw County school then... the other options the Freep gave were Saline, Huron, Pioneer and Chelsea.
Ricardo is going to pioneer and is goint to play inkster in one of the showcase games.
i was gonna say, i thought this came out in another thread. they're playing at EMU's stadium i thought
You're right. I usually don't get carried away w/ rankings and what not, but I'm excited to see this kid play, and all of the Sparty love is getting to me I guess.
Edit: season come
Just so you know, I'm really excited about Devin Gardner, too. Not to disparage Tate or Denard, but, I think Gardner has the raw talent and ability to be a VERY special player for us one day. He's a cut above the rest, imho.
Yessir
Do you give more credence to the opinion of the counselors who are actual players or to the talent evaluators at Scout, Rivals, etc...?
Neither. If anything, the Rivals guys have been watching these kids longer than anyone else, which should give them the advantage. In that aspect, I would give them more credence.
As someone said before, this stuff is all subjective to someone's opinion. It's hard to say who I trust more, because I don't know anyones track record.
A kid could have a bad outing at a camp, and could affect how people rank him.
The fact is, the kids that were at the Elite 11, were there for a reason. They're all good. I think it's fair for Rivals to rank someone higher off of a good performance, more than it is to ding them for performing poorly. A lot of this is off of potential, so that makes sense to me.
Thank you for your answer. Very informative.
Always love your work!
Is anyone keeping track of the movement in our recruits rankings from the day they committed to us until the day they signed with us? I think it would be interesting to assess the net movement in the rankings of those players across the major recruiting sites. A high positive net movement score indicating improvement in rankings would speak (roughly) to Rodriguez's ability to identify talent early.
I don't think that information would be very useful without a sample of comparisons. Would definitely be an interesting ranking to set up for next season for say the top 10 recruiting classes or so. I may look into it but that would really be a long term project.
I firmly believe that in this offense, Gardner is a "5-star" elite prospect.
And that's all that matters.