Position ranks as predictor of success

Submitted by 1M1Ucla on
Ok, out on a limb here, but a quick eyeball perusal of the various metrics used in recruiting rankings seemed to reveal that the best predictor of success at the college level was position ranking. I was curious if anyone has done a more serious analysis to see if that correlation holds up. The database I looked at was narrow (M recruits, 2002-2007, Rivals position rank data), but I was taken immediately that, overall, recruits ranked in the top 10-15 at their positions became strong contributors in their college careers at a high percentage, that there was an inflection point below 15, and another for everyone except O-line at about 30 -- ranked nationally below 30 for anything but O-line said that a player wasn't going to be a contributor, but more like a depth guy. The O-line thing makes sense because there are more of them on the field, and they are probably more interchangeable than any other position. The other thing that stood out to me was the number of top 10-15 position rank players committed so far this year to Michigan. With (likely) a couple more Top-Tenners to come, this class would be superior to any in the 2002-2008 period. UFR, the correlation makes sense to me, since the forced rankings are the product of multiple observers of multiple players' relative impact on the games they play. More than the numerical ratings, which can be influenced more subjectively, the forced ranking at least differentiates the dominant from the good from the meh. This also seems to support a correlation I've used since coaching kids in soccer, baseball and football starting in the mid-80's -- your success on the field is determined by your top 2-3 on the field and your bottom 2-3 on the field. If that set of 4-6 is better than your opponents', you rock. If not, you get rocked. The middle 3-5 in baseball, 5-7 in soccer and 16-18 in football are going to be a push. That may seem obvious, but it really shows how much happens at the margins, and how much match-ups matter. My monster on your meh: my advantage. Michigan seems to be setting itself up these last couple of classes for some pretty good match-up situations. I'm especially intrigued by the slot-dots and hybrid safety-LBs. A further musing is on how the spread is a great equalizer for quarterbacks -- it seems to take merely adequate to be good, and the good can become great due to the reduced demands on pre-snap read and ability to deliver spot-on throws over miles of field with correct trajectory, speed and timing. Data: HS position rankings for a selection of this year's QB performers -- McCoy (15), Bradford (12), Daniel (6), Herrell (7) -- oh yeah, and some guy named Tebow (1) to provide an outlier. Anyway, Sunday morning coffee musings, FWIW. I'd really be interested if anyone has done any broader stats work on position rank as predictor.

Ninja Football

December 14th, 2008 at 4:43 PM ^

Don't have the stats work, but it's been discussed with some of the services that the Top 25-50 overall are locks to be successful in college, and the next 150 (#'s 51-200) could be ranked in any order for the most part. Of course you'll have the anomalies, but like anything they're generally the exception that proves the rule. somewhere out there is an analysis done by TMQb regarding star rankings and success- don't thin it takes into account position rankings though.

Seth

December 14th, 2008 at 7:17 PM ^

That is a fascinating idea. I wish I had the time to do it. But if someone else does, it shouldn't be TOO hard. Shmear and paste from Rivals into an open Notebook window (to clear formatting), then paste into Excel.

Seth

December 15th, 2008 at 1:26 PM ^

Some preliminaries: Florida: 4 stars (5.9 RR rating), 4.65 Average 40 time. Average recruit rank: 17
Michigan: 4 stars (5.8 RR rating), 4.71 Average 40 time. Average recruit rank: 26
South Florida: 3.5 stars (5.6 RR), 4.82 Average 40 time. Average recruit rank: 40
Southern Cal: 4.5 stars (6.0 RR), 4.61 Avearge 40 time. Average recruit rank: 10
Wisconsin: 3.5 stars (5.6 RR rating), 5.00 Avg. 40 time. Average recruit rank: 43 The ultimate goal will be to see if there's a greater correlation between Average rank of recruits for their position in that class, or Average Star rating and how the teams actually fare. I'm using numbers Rivals, and only the players that were ranked. Those that didn't receive rankings were a low 3-star (5.5 Rivals ranking) or below. I'm also testing several other factors, including height, weight, and 40-time to test whether "bigger" or "faster" teams tend to outperform their ranking. Basically, when I'm done, each team will have an 85-man roster of their best recruits from 2005-2008. All it will measure is PROGRAM STRENGTH, not ability to win in 2009 (for that I'd need to incorporate an aging factor). Teams that can't fill an 85-man with ranked recruits from this time period will have the remaining slots filled in with average 2.5-star players. The big problem I'm having is how to calculate an attrition factor into this, since it would be too cumbersome to go through each recruit and keep up with transfers, NFL departures, etc.

CG

December 15th, 2008 at 1:29 PM ^

One thing, your height/weight and especially 40-times are going to be inaccurate. Senior high school OL lineman do not run 4.6 40s unless they're running from a catholic priest from ND.

1M1Ucla

December 15th, 2008 at 3:15 PM ^

doing those stats, I'd have more trouble than if some anonymous online tootsie was blogging sweet nothings in my laptop. Fearful? Why, yes. Yes, I am. She's Italian and has an uncle named Giorgio that nobody seems to have an idea what he does for a living, yet he drives big cars and gets a ton of respect. Thanks -- I'm staying tuned.

Seth

December 15th, 2008 at 1:34 PM ^

1s: Boren (OG), Minor (FB) 2s: Graham (ILB), Mallett (QB-Pro) 3-5s: Warren, Mouton, Molk, Schilling 6-10s: C. Brown, S. Brown, Mathews, Mixon, Helmuth, Patterson 11-20s: B. Wright, Clemons, Horn, S. Watson, Panter, M. Williams, Van Bergen 21-40s: Kates, Herron, Patilla, Webb, Cone 41-76s: Sagesse, Hemingway, Babb, Chambers, Bands, Q.Woods, Dorrestein, Ferrara, Ezeh, Woolfolk, J.Rogers, Huyge

1M1Ucla

December 15th, 2008 at 11:19 PM ^

sort of the BJ Askew, Rob Lytle model, it seems. Yeah, I'd think top 10 -- who else was in that class nationally? He was ranked behind Beanie (but so was God), and his 5.8 scoring put him with the guys at Florida, Oklahoma, everyone else at tOSU, behind Stafon Johnson at USC but with the other two guys there -- so based on a quick sample, yeah, I'd think he's a top-tenner at RB. He's obviously picked up speed over the 4.75 he was listing in HS (though that concept sort post factos the premise, doesn't it?). I'll be curious to see where Boren's performance winds up at tOSU. One discount to ranking is headcase -- a lot of guys play under their ranking for insufficient ear-to-ear performance.

1M1Ucla

December 15th, 2008 at 11:39 PM ^

schools really impresses me with truly how few schools recruit with Michigan year in and year out. Now, very few times do you find the monster of all monsters at any one position in the Michigan class very often (the way one does at USC, ND, and some other schools), but consistently high level quality year after year. So, now I ask myself, does Michigan outperform or underperform its talent year over year? May be a good follow on question to the stat line we're picking on right now.