Mgoczar

October 31st, 2018 at 11:27 AM ^

My 2 cents:

I think I mentioned in previous thread somewhere - notice Mcsorley after injury how he is not really moving laterally with any confidence. Is that just me? Mgoposters with more time can validate/refute. 

Extrapolating from his movements, it does appear as MCL sprain and if that is the case, his lateral "jittery bugginess" is compromised. Still fast north/south though (52 yd TD). If he is not 100% no reason not to win this game (even if it is a grind) - defense should dominate. 

Their pass rushers do look very good. I think we do give up 2-3 sacks here. Hopefully Higdon and punishing run games takes out a bit of that rush. Definitely need Bench Mason to truck a few + atleast 5-8 carries for Evans to give Higdon some rest. Otherwise keep running!

Tarik black really back to 100%??

Joined: 09/29/2017

MGoPoints: 4198

rc15

October 31st, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^

I'm wondering if it's one of those injuries you can play through until it swells/stiffens up and the adrenaline wears off. He was definitely trying to keep it loose on the sideline (staying on the bike), so I'm wondering how it'll have been during practice this week and will be for our game.

Joined: 01/23/2015

MGoPoints: 12103

Watching From Afar

October 31st, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^

So, quickly looking at the game logs on sportsreference for PSU defensively:

Ranked #21 in S&P - 51st against the run and 15th against the pass

Against bad rushing teams they've been giving up 3 - 3.5 YPC (against the likes of MSU, OSU, and Iowa who are all terrible on the ground). They gave up 5 YPC to Indiana and 5.4 to Illinois(!!) while giving up over 4 to Pitt and App St.

They're giving up ~250 YPG passing against teams not named Pitt and ~180 YPG on the ground against teams not named Kent St.

Their defense can get after the QB, there's no 2 ways about it. But, Michigan's rushing offense is worlds better than MSU, OSU, and Iowa so I think they can run at PSU pretty well.

MSU's OL is hot garbage and behind Michigan's in pretty much every meaningful statistic (sack rate and such) and they threw for almost 300 yards.

I've been trying to talk myself out being comfortable because of McSorley and Hamler, but the more I look at it the more I can't figure out how PSU is staying afloat at the moment.

Joined: 10/10/2016

MGoPoints: 16024

Mgoczar

October 31st, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^

"I've been trying to talk myself out being comfortable because of McSorley and Hamler, but the more I look at it the more I can't figure out how PSU is staying afloat at the moment."

I'm thinking big plays. With MSU, if you take out Sanders long runs, what did they do? MSU also got a bit lucky, as they were taking major risks passing to F. Davis. I suppose Shea has to throw a couple of bombs to DPJ and Nico in this game to loosen them. 

Against Iowa it was Mcsorley - hey I can still run / iowa derp cover 0 - 52 yarder and I think a bomb to KJ - why you no offer M - Hamler for field goal. 

I don't think their offense is a grind out consistently Offense. I hope we limit those big plays and learnt our lesson first half of ND. 

Joined: 09/29/2017

MGoPoints: 4198

ChiBlueBoy

October 31st, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^

I think you're right--they stay afloat with big plays. Bit of all-or-nothing both on O and D. I think UM's D can tend to give up the big play on occasion--opposite of the bend-don't-break. The main issue may be whether Brown's defense can stay aggressive without giving up the chunks. Normally I would say more zone, but that may be an invitation for McSorely to pick us apart, and I was not terribly impressed by any of their receivers not named Hamler. Not sure they can get separation, out leap us, or even hold onto contested catches.

I'm not the expert, but might be another good game to go mostly man-to-man with a few of the "trap" zones, and have Bush drop back or "spy" a bit. Maybe a similar plan to what we ran against MSU.

Joined: 10/11/2011

MGoPoints: 7844

1VaBlue1

October 31st, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^

I've been saying this for two weeks!  PSU needs big plays to move the ball and score.  They won't get them consistently against Michigan's defense.  They will get two or three, but that's not enough to score well against Don Brown.  OTOH, Michigan's offense will carve up that soft run D PSU will roll out.  If they insist on putting a big rush on Patterson, Michigan will chunk run for hundreds of yards.  If they sit back and let the DL work the run, Michigan will still run through them but with smaller gains rather than chunks.  Please, let the DL sit back and also bring up the safeties to help...  (Tents fingers, cackles at the thought of Collins, DPJ, Black, and Gentry downfield with no help for the corners.)

Michigan will continue to own the ball for large increments of time because they can run.  And they'll hit their average scoring (~35 pts/gm) because they don't squander very many scoring chances.  I just don't see any way PSU will hit enough big plays to keep up.  They certainly aren't going to grind out ball control scores to keep M's offense off the field.  I see a fairly easy win, S&P stats aside.

The national love affair with PSU ends Saturday night.

Joined: 01/31/2016

MGoPoints: 127367

Watching From Afar

October 31st, 2018 at 12:16 PM ^

Yeah, it seems like they rely on big plays too much still. Kind of like they did over the last 2 years but now they don't have Gesicki, Hamilton, Barkley, and McSorley's numbers have taken a huge hit across the board sans rushing because they rely on him so much.

Hamler in the slot gives me heartburn because even if Michigan has been covering slants better and dissuading teams from throwing slot fades, if Hamler gets the ball 1 time in a fortuitous situation, he's gone. Metellus is not fast enough to keep up with him and Kinnel is still kind of snake bitten by perfect throws and he isn't a burner either.

Joined: 10/10/2016

MGoPoints: 16024

MGoStrength

October 31st, 2018 at 2:16 PM ^

I've been trying to talk myself out being comfortable because of McSorley and Hamler, but the more I look at it the more I can't figure out how PSU is staying afloat at the moment.

While I like our chances, especially at home, anyone who's watched us consistently and not just saw the final scores, knows we have some serious weaknesses and reasons for concern against a quality team.  There have been multiple times this season where I had to leave the room during the game I was so frustrated. The offense did not look good against ND.  There were times where William Brown consistently moved the ball against SMU and made that game hard to watch.  We started really slow against NW and they able to move the ball a lot in the first half as well as get us off the field defensively.  While the final score looked nice against Wiscy, I thought their lines were better than us in the first half and they were able to run the ball quite effectively with Taylor running through tackles.  I think if they stuck with the run game that would have been a closer game.  And, MSU showed the ability to get to our QB, especially with their DEs.  If it wasn't for that one big play to DPJ and some breaks like the tipped ball that Gentry caught that game would look very different. 

So, if I take all that towards PSU I think PSU will have the ability to get to Shea on obvious throwing situations.  Also, although their o-line isn't great, they handled us well last year and that with Gary.  I do like our ability to limit their offense more consistently this year with the offensive losses they have and with Trace being hobbled a bit.  But, they do still have some weapons with Trace, Sanders, and Hamler and I still expect their DEs to give us some trouble.  I think we will need to run the ball successfully and maybe with some QB scrambles to keep this from being a nail biter.

Joined: 07/29/2010

MGoPoints: 20002

Indonacious

October 31st, 2018 at 11:58 AM ^

Few of my thoughts on defense...
- Best D-Line that we will face since ND (as many have noted), particularly from pass rush perspective. They also play quite aggressive. They will be vulnerable to counter plays and other crafty misdirection hopefully.
- Their LBs are pretty bad and probably a large reason why they gamble with their D-Line so much. 
- Their secondary plays mostly zone D per my review and doesn't seem to give up much deep. Also, they seem to be around the ball a lot and a very solid unit altogether. 
 

Joined: 01/03/2012

MGoPoints: 16597

Ali G Bomaye

October 31st, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^

Observations on PSU @ Indiana:

  • Penn State's OL sucks. They haven't opened more than a sliver of a crease for Sanders, and McSorley is being pressured a decent amount despite Indiana rarely blitzing. Speaking of Indiana's blitzes, they are confusing the hell out of PSU.
  • Sanders is a real talent. Despite having almost no space, as detailed above, he's made some nice gains and is also a threat out of the backfield.
  • McSorley is good. Nothing we didn't know. He's a pretty accurate passer and a dangerous runner. PSU has a number of plays that are designed to take advantage of the defense focusing on Sanders to open things up for McSorley to run.
  • The receivers are average. Hamler is lightning with the ball in his hands, but none of the receivers impressed me as far as getting separation or coming down with contested catches.
  • PSU had an interesting play with Tommy Stevens at QB and McSorley at RB. Stevens faked a read option with McSorley and then hit the TE on a wheel for a TD.
  • Indiana's offense had some nice runs right through the middle of the PSU defense.
  • Indiana threw a fade on 4th-and-1 in the red zone. Not a typical DeBord move, but inexplicable nonetheless.
  • If PSU succeeds on a play, they'll come back to it over and over. They gashed Indiana with a play where McSorley fakes a toss to Sanders to the left, then runs up the middle, then ran it a few more times, which were far less successful. We saw this last year when PSU put Barkley in the wildcat with McSorley at RB.
  • The most animated Franklin got (in this highlight reel, at least) was after a made FG at 13:43. Some things never change...
  • When Indiana had to pass in the 4th quarter, PSU's DEs got some good pass rush.
  • PSU muffed three punts, but Hamler is really dangerous if he manages to catch it.

Observations on Iowa @ PSU:

  • PSU's punter gave up a safety when he dropped a perfect snap. He wasn't wearing gloves despite wet conditions... maybe he should?
  • PSU's OL appears to have no idea how to deal with DL stunts in pass blocking.
  • Iowa's first TD was a jump ball pass from the punter to a DE, on a fake field goal that wasn't really a fake because the punter just lined up in the shotgun. That doesn't mean anything for our game, but was super weird.
  • McSorley is really good at keeping his eyes downfield when he scrambles.
  • PSU gave up another safety when the long snapper completely missed the punter and snapped it both high and wide.
  • Backup QB Tommy Stevens is a load. He's a very different type of player than McSorley - not as slippery or as accurate, but he's huge and can run through people.
  • Iowa had another 4th down attempt near the end of the first half where they snapped the ball to their backup QB, who faked a lateral to their starting QB who had lined up at WR, then got sacked. Why is Kirk Ferentz an idiot against every team except us?
  • McSorley did run for a 51-yard TD after he tweaked his knee. However, I'm not sure how much that tells us - the play was a counter that fooled Iowa so much that he didn't even need to make a cut or outrun anyone. He didn't seem to be as accurate throwing the ball after his injury, but that could be due somewhat to the poor conditions. He still isn't afraid to throw 50/50 balls to his receivers.

All in all, I'm still feeling reasonably confident for our matchup against PSU. Our strengths on defense (pass rush, blitzing, fast LBs, tight coverage in the secondary) would seem to both negate their strengths (speed at QB and RB, Hamler) and exploit their weaknesses (mediocre, easily-confused OL). PSU's good DEs are a concern, so our OTs will need to continue their improved play. But I think we can gash PSU on inside runs, and Patterson should be able to pick apart their pass coverage.

Joined: 07/08/2008

MGoPoints: 17695

Tyler1495

October 31st, 2018 at 2:51 PM ^

all i know is if michigan plays their game efficiently they should win similar to the wisconsin game. We need to capitalize on scoring touchdowns on long drives. They struggle badly against the run and i am sure that is where harbaugh will exploit them. Their linebackers arent very good either so expect some action throws on early downs

Joined: 04/06/2018

MGoPoints: 2203