OT: Trying to break the MLB draft system
I thought this might be an interesting thing to discuss. Carter Stewart, a 19 year old pitcher, was selected #8 by the Braves in 2018 but didn't sign with them because of a low signing bonus offer. He was expected to be a high second round pick again this year but has instead decided to bypass the draft and sign with a club in Japan. The interesting thing about this that he'll get at least 7 million over the next 6 years AND be able to come back to the US as a free agent at 25. This is huge when teams are playing games with call-ups in order to extend their (low cost) control over prospects until they are nearly 30. What do you guys think of this end-run around the MLB rules and the attempt to break the MLB draft/minor league system?
He will now make more money with this deal compared to what he would have made by staying in the draft, on his first contract. Good for him. See if this starts a trend or not, but it will be interesting to see how it shakes out in the next few years.
Yeah, quite a bit more money in fact.
Why the hell not. Isn't Japan the second best league in the world?
Get paid young man.
Maybe --- sure he will get paid a lot of money, but this young man is still going to be spending 6 years outside the country.
That's quite a commitment. I'm not sure how many 18-25 year olds are willing to do that.
I do admit: I don't like the games MLB teams play with draft picks and their call-ups.
For 7 million dollars? Really? At age 18, I would have lived at the South Pole for 6 years if you gave me 7 million dollars to do it.
Reading the article this player would get $2MM if he signed with the Braves.
So, it's not $7MM in isolation.
The choice is instead (1) "a lot of money, especially for a 18-year-old, but no chance at MLB before age 25" versus (2) "less money, but still a lot of money for a 18-year-old, with a chance to work into MLB before age 25."
Obviously the kid would have to have a financial advisor to get to this truth, but the difference between 2 mil and 7 mil at age 18 is STAGGERING.
2 mil is a really nice amount of money, but not if you don't end up with a baseball career. Think about it--an engineer/manager/whatever who makes 100k a year will make 2 mil in salary over 20 years. So that isn't "set for life" money at age 18.
7 million is a different story. If he invests that money wisely at all, he's set for life. Never has to work at anything, regardless of how his baseball career turns out. Even if he only gets 4% from his money (a low estimate) he can pull a "salary" of over $250,000 a year and still be building his principle. And that's only if things don't work out and he never gets the big bucks as a free agent.
Remember, about 50% of the top prospects in MLB end up as busts.
http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2013/12/death-to-tinstaapp-updating-mckinneys.html
I agree with all you said.
But to quote Mike Gundy: "I'm a man! I'm 40!"
40 year old me can run spreadsheets and provide all kinds of advise. But the decision's is ultimately the young man's, and his calculus is likely different.
Oh yeah, I agree 100%. That's why I said he'd have to have a financial adviser to understand all of this. I wouldn't have fully understood it at 18. It sounds like this kid has some smart money people advising him (maybe his parents?) Maybe other kids will pick up on this when they see it happening.
66 year old Scott Boras (his agent) is also probably pretty good with spreadsheets and money advice. If I were 19, I'd take this deal in a heart beat. You get to spend your off-season where ever the hell you want, and during the season you get to live in the cultural wonderland that is Japan AND they're going to pay you 1.16 million a year to do it.
After having just read the story, I hope he succeeds in such a way that many, many more prospects try the same path. Why not? Neither physical health nor continued progression to Major League success are guaranteed for baseball prospects, especially when it comes to pitchers. If Japanese Baseball teams are both willing to pay and to take on the risk for that much more money (not to mention the much better promo money-making opportunities in Japan as mentioned in the story), then I say Go. Get. Paid.
If it's worth it to him to live in Japan from 19-25 and get paid, instead of riding the buses in the minor leagues, good for the kid. I don't think this is going to start a significant trend, particularly for pitchers. The next MLB CBA is likely to change the rules about ML service time and UFA anyway to make it more favorable to the players.
What's the player development like in Japan compared to the US? I know that they pitch less (once a week vs every 5 days in the US) and use a slightly smaller ball. Not sure if their coaches are as good as the coaches in the US, and if they will have the patience/long term view a MLB team would have with a player, especially a young pitcher.
This is really a no-lose decision by the kid IMO. Minor league baseball sucks. So instead, he gets 7 million to go play in a league that is at least as good as minor league baseball if not better, and when he's done, if he is good, he can sign a big free agent contact to play in MLB. If he ends up not panning out, he keeps his 7 million.
Yeah, he has to live in Japan for 6 years. Big deal. For 7 million dollars I think it is worth it. It's not like Japan is a third-world country or something.
Hopefully stuff like this makes MLB redo their setup. Right now for a franchise, being good is all about exploiting young talent that is vastly underpaid (on the scale of MLB players) because they cannot declare free agency. This also hurts the vetrans. Since clubs know young guys are vastly cheaper, they are always going to go with a younger player even if that player is not as good. They need a more balanced system.
I think the current MLB system is a travesty. It essentially operates as a massive wealth transfer from young players to older players and owners. It exists because guys just starting their professional careers have no seat at the table in league negotiations. The MLBPA only represents people who have played for a major league club. Minor league players and amateurs interested in joining are not included, so the two sides screwed them over.
I really hope this starts a trend. Unfortunately, I'm not optimistic. The number of people willing to spend 6 years on the other side of the world in a very different culture is just not very high. I hope I'm wrong.
MLB draft is tough on both sides. Glad this kid has an alternative.
Success rates in the MLB draft are lower than others, especially in first round compared to the accumulation of picks in the vast number of other rounds. So while top baseball salaries continue to dominate the headlines in major sports (although others are catching up), it masks the larger crapshoot at the lower ranks.
It'd be tough for teams to commit to larger bonuses to top prospects in the early rounds due to the volatility and supply of the other rounds, but if this Carter Stewart's route becomes the norm, I'm sure some adjustment will take place.
i don't blame the kid, but i don't blame mlb either. per mlb.com, since 1981, 73% of first round picks eventually make the bigs; 50% for 2nd round; 40% for 3rd round. 17% for all players drafted. if the kid fails, he is still set for life as a 2nd round draft pick...and he will still be only 25.
signing bonuses drop off dramatically for draft picks. casey mize got $7.5mm. several guys at the end of round 1 got under $2mm. from me eyeballing, the 2nd round guys averaged about $1.3mm; 3rd round avg about $700k; 4th round about $500k.