MSU/Michigan recruiting production
Hey all,
I found a really cool series of articles that analyze the Production/ output based on stars For recruits, comparing the two Michigan teams. Though it’s from an MSU blog, it’s a really interesting look and is a 7 part series, with this part - part 3 - giving a really comprehensive look at things like the ‘bust rate’ and ‘hit rate’ for Michigan recruits based on stars.
In summation, Michigan has a good enough blue chip ratio to win a championship: however, the ‘bust’ rate for blue chip players has been relatively high - at least compared to MSU and some other B1G schools - which may reflect issues with ID’ing / development. While the staff still does a great job getting players to the NFL, it’s an informative look which may explain some of our dismay in years past. Hope y’all enjoy.
Seems like they are definitely saying that MSUs downturn in recruiting is correlated to Harbaughs arrival at Michigan. And also that while Michigan has had a poor history of busts the trend is more erratic/generally trending positive since 2016. Interesting to see things we have talked about in data form
Yea, exactly. I was really impressed with the whole series, and as it is recent/ new/ also focused on the big ten, figured it was nice to be given a new round of solid data to gloss over whilst we wait and wring our hands about... everything, it seems. Overall, though, I’d say it’s comforting to see that Michigan is on the right side of the coveted ‘Blue Chip Ratio’. Teams with ‘’’less’’’ talent than us have won the championship - again, it seems to just be the lack of elite QB Play which is holding us back. If we had had a semi elite QB in 2016, for example? Man, that would have been a team for the ages. Hopefully Dylan or Joe can be that guy for the program. A lot to look forward to!
Dylan has similar Measurables to Devin Gardner, with both having deceptive speed. I'd take a Devin 2.0 if Mcaffrey can show a similar skill in throwing and chemistry with a reciever, ala Gallon. My major concern this year is losing Ruiz. I'm not sure who can step in to lead the line and make the line calls. Hopefully there is someone that is smart and talented to step in to fill those shoes.
Vastardis has been in the program for several years and even for a walk on has shown decent potential. Carpenter was good enough that Stephen Spanellis (who looked good in limited time) decided he would be better off transferring. I think it's hard to replicate Ruiz, but we're in a much better position than even a few years ago.
To say it’s hard to replace a 1st round draft pick at center is an understatement as that position is traditionally not drafted that high. I agree the team is in a better spot at online since Warriners hire. Still breaking in 4 new starters albeit with potential could go negatively
Actually , well done.
But.....UM had 10 players taken in the NFL draft.
I didn't see a Glasgow chart.
Wins are all that matters.
Kind of like what Gentleman Squirrels said, this is a little bit interesting on a large-scale perspective, but it's not super relevant. It basically compares the best MSU coach in their history (Dantonio) to two of the less successful coaches in Michigan history (Rodriguez/Hoke).
The conclusion is basically that Dantonio is good and Rodriguez/Hoke were bad, which is not a revelation.
But if you're MSU, you hold onto whatever good stuff you can.
Yep. It also highlights that even during the longest downturn in UM history, MSU didn't pull a ton of great players. So if you're MSU and you are holding onto that Dantonio era for all it's worth, the cold reality is that it's unlikely you'll just bounce back with a new coach.
Breaking News Tonight at 10pm, players under RR and Hoke under perform, while 2 stars become All-Americans at MSU 8 years ago. Coincidence? I think not. That, and your 5-day forecast coming up.
Lol if you think you’re gonna get objective analysis at The Only Colors. It’s a whole lot of writing just to say “Dantonio did a great job from 2007-2015, and Rich Rod/Hoke sucked.” The last five years are basically ignored.
I'm pretty sure this is where I'm supposed to bring up the single greatest, most homerish, "our coach can do no wrong", "we are elite and here to stay" preview published, possibly in the entire history of college football - a sport where hope springs eternal but most predictions are grounded in at least some vein of reality.
https://www.theonlycolors.com/2016/6/18/11969270/the-only-colors-roundt…
The worst prediction is 9-3. All of them predicted beating Michigan - in fact 4/5 said it would be the "season highlight." They went 3-9, 2-9 against FBS opponents and TOC basically stopped publishing football articles halfway through the season.
Though his was probably the least bombastic of the six write-ups, I still bet Chris Vannini (now of the Athletic) wishes that article proudly displaying his 10-2 prediction would disappear.
I remember Brian getting into it with one of their writers on Twitter during that season and pointing out their cover page had a game recap from, like, 2 games earlier and that was the most recent they had.
They never really recovered from that 2016 season; it broke the bubble that Dantonio had built some amazing, steadfast program that could weather a resurgent UM and PSU along with a dominant OSU.
Expecting Pony Conquerer to post in 3...2...1...
Shitpost*, not post.
I didn't know MSU gets blue chip recruits.
Red lock recruits
Did you see the note that MSU has a bye before the Michigan game in 4 of the next 5 years? I hope that it does not matter but please convince that is mere coincidence.
I read through his Part 2, looking at historic MSU classes, basically because yesterday I was talking to an MSU fan who said Tucker is a dawg and was bringing in a great recruiting class and I said no actually hes having trouble staying in the top 50. So I wanted to see what they considered an average and a great MSU class.
Anyways, the article says MSU is a Tier 3 / Top 40 recruiting program. Which feels correct. The Sparty Spin Zone comes in when he says that 3 bad recruiting classes led to the Rose Bowl and Playoff teams, so that the last 4 Dantonio bad classes are okay, maybe even preferable to good classes. Build that shoulder chip and all...
Also found this argument to be bizarre:
As any U of M fan will gladly explain, based on this metric, U of M “out-recruits” MSU pretty consistently. If one were to bring up this statistic with a typical U of M fan, the most likely reply would be that Rich Rod most likely accounted for Tier 3 classes, Brady Hoke had mostly Tier 2 classes, and Saint Harbaugh’s classes have all been Tier 1. But, the facts tell a different story. While three of Michigan’s Tier 1 classes [ed: out of 4], including the best class of the group (2017) were recruited under Harbaugh’s watch, four of the top seven classes were signed by Rich Rod and Hoke (2008, 2009, 2012, and 2013).
So basically Harbaugh brought in 3/4 of the best Michigan classes in his analysis but he looks for some way to insult Harbaugh because 4 of the top 7 were from Hoke/Rich Rod.
Also MSU is a better destination for top 75 players because they've had 5 total and only 1 bust and Michigan has had 14 total and 3 busts.....so MSU percentage good. And yet, MSU also wins the 2 star category because even though Michigan has a better percentage of hits, they don't get very many 2 stars (only 10 total) so MSU got more production from their 28 2-stars...
I guess whichever metric works for MSU.
Their definition of "bust" also drives me crazy. It's basically treats "guy who didn't perform at all" with "guy who transferred or medically retired", even though those are demonstrably different circumstances.
It wasn't a bad read but it sort of highlights how limited their analysis went. I basically put guys into buckets, looked at the bar chart, and made a narrative from that.
Go Blue.