Gaming out the Heisman voting
Now I know that nothing matters except beat Iowa (etc, etc)….
With that being said, I was speculating about the Heisman chatter and have two somewhat contradictory thoughts
a) There will be more votes for Defensive players this year than any previous year, and maybe more than for offensive players
b) An offensive player is more likely to win due to vote splitting
The reason I think a) is because, much like with MLB over the past decade, the focus beyond traditional metrics led people to look beyond wins to more advanced metrics. IIrc there eventually was an edge case (Felix Hernandez in 2010) where the advanced stats were so overwhelming that voters finally shifted to use that as a new approach (that included adv. stats) to assessment moving forward.
This year strikes me as another edge case because there are few (no?) offensive players who had years that would be Heisman worthy. However there are at least 2-3 people (AH, Jordan Davis, Will Anderson) who have been historically dominant and are all on playoff contenders. As such, there is a permission structure for voters (based on the national narrative) that might break the dam for D players being seriously considered, setting a new precedent down the line where it becomes uncommon but not impossible for D players to win.
The flip side to this is that because of legacy biases, both in terms of region and position group, the votes for defensive players will be split and/or offensive players will still get a lot of votes, especially if Bryce Young ends up being the only viable offensive candidate in the media narrative.
With that in mind, if the weekend is chalk (UGA and UM win), I could see a ceremony with two out of the top three (or even 3/4 if Jordan Davis has a big game) and Young still winning it, opening the door for future D players at the expense of this years group of D players.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
It would be really nice if the voters saw the forest through the trees and recognized Aidan as the most dominant player in the country.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
Vote for #97 https://promo.espn.com/espn/contests/nissan/heisman/2021/
Vote early, vote often, vote incognito. Aidan is up to #6 in the fan vote. Next player to pass is Bryce Young. After that, it's a big jump to KWIII who is at 10%.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
Need Aidan to pick 6 Iowa to check the offensive player bias box
December 1st, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^
They should create a goal line package for him. He can pound in some TD's like Perry used to do for the Bears.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:14 AM ^
Need Bama to lose and then Aidan to have another 3 sack game, preferably a sack strip recovery or two
December 1st, 2021 at 11:14 AM ^
the Heisman is a nice award but basically meaningless
a player won it from ND with a losing record just because he was at ND, has barely changed from there.
December 1st, 2021 at 1:32 PM ^
Are you talking about the year Jim Brown should have over Paul Hornung?
December 1st, 2021 at 2:09 PM ^
You may consider it meaningless, but to the winner it is life changing. For the rest of their life they are known as a Heisman Trophy winner. That opens doors beyond football.
Just look for example, you can only live in the Nissan Heisman House if you have won a Heisman.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:16 AM ^
I think the ubiquity of PFF is a big reason for Hutch's surge up to #3 in on draft kings board, it gives the voters a solid/recognizable platform to go off script in selecting an non-offensive player, and allows them to be spoon fed a 'summary' of non-traditional counting stats that may otherwise cause their eyes to cross. If they even bothered to look.
More traditional voting factors are now swinging his way as well. Nationally UM may have been seen as a good story before OSU, but after a dominant performance they're now being reckoned with as an actual force in college football this season. When voters start looking for those narratives that they love for how UM transformed from dumpster fire to contender, the senior captain who spurned the NFL to turn it around for his dad's alma mater will be easy to latch on to. He's by far the best player on a number 2 ranked brand name team, unlike Georgia and Bama who each have players who might split votes on their own team. He also has the head-to-head edge on Stroud.
If Hutch can take over the sack lead next Saturday, or get some combination of a sack/signature turn over, I actually think he moves from dark horse to even money. Assuming that Will Anderson doesn't do something similar in a massive upset of Georgia.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:17 AM ^
Aidan at punt returner needs to take a punt back for a TD.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:17 AM ^
Go Blue! Beat Iowa!
December 1st, 2021 at 11:24 AM ^
It amazes me how we have such reverence for the Heisman and it's history, despite it being one of the most flawed awards given out.
There's no MVP House ad campaigns featuring dudes who won the award 40 years ago.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:32 AM ^
Football in general seems really segregated in what they believe qualifies as most valuable. Baseball gives it to pitchers with some regularity (though Ohtani this year is a bit of an outlier, Verlander and Kershaw have won it recently without much consternation), the Hart goes to goalies. Basketball is a little weird because everyone plays both ways and a lot of times guys will win MVP and be highly regarded for defense. But the NFL has only had 2 defense-first guys to win MVP (and the last way Lawrence Taylor in 1986) and only Woodson has won the Heisman as a defense-first guy in the modern era. It's crazy to believe that only once has the best player in college football be a non-QB/RB/WR, and so it does cheapen the award that they didn't give it to, for example, Suh at Nebraska his last year but instead Mark Ingram, a perfectly fine college RB but nobody we really remember.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:24 AM ^
Hutchinson probably has the best chance to have a big, showy performance and turn some heads (since he's playing against a worse OL than Anderson will face vs. UGa and Davis is a DT so he's less likely to have huge numbers), but this still feels like a situation where Young or some offensive player will win by split votes and it'll be annoying. Though if Haskins has another big day maybe it becomes a situation where UM players start splitting votes? Like, he's only 2 TDs of the national lead in rushing TDs and other than Jerome Ford nobody else is playing this weekend close to him. Might be a darkhorse if Heisman voters still want to give it to an offensive player for some dumb reason.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
Voters obviously favor offensive players, but IMO a big reason for this is that a lot are sheep who follow the easy national narratives. And right now, the tide of the national narrative is turning heavily toward "Why not a defensive player this year?" Of the two offensive favorites, Young has sputtered down the stretch and isn't likely to do anything on Saturday to burnish his resume. After the MSU game Stroud was closing strong, but he just lost the proverbial head-to-head against Hutch, and is out of games. Hutch has the counting stats with his sacks, and the PFF hype which something even the oldest, hackiest Heisman voters are aware of in this day and age.
If he closes with another signature performance against Iowa, I think that this year he's more poised to take advantage of the die-hard offensive player voters splitting between Young, Stroud and Walker(?) to swoop in and steal it, than he is to be hurt by those proclivities.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:27 AM ^
Give Aidan the ball on 1st and goal - RUN IT UP THE MIDDLE. Hassan can be his fullback for a play.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
No fullback required, just have him be the new hammering panda.
December 1st, 2021 at 11:41 AM ^
I'll be honest, I have no idea who Jordan Davis and Will Anderson are. Hopefully Aidan has better name recognition elsewhere in the country than those two do here...
December 1st, 2021 at 12:03 PM ^
I'm not sure why Bryce Young is the apparent frontrunner. His stats are good, but pale in comparison to Heisman-winning QBs in the recent past. His team has had a fine, but not great, season, and Young had a bad game against their primary rival.
The Heisman has always been a BS award, with few exceptions, but Young might be the hardest winner to fathom if he ends up winning it.
December 1st, 2021 at 4:08 PM ^
I think Hutch wins it. Most voters are deciding these last couple weeks, and no one's week was better than Hutch last Saturday, and on the biggest stage by far. Undecided voters will be paying close attention this week. I think Bryce losses. And I think Hutch has an even bigger week than last week b/c Iowa's tackles can not block. It will be dominant and a national story.
And Hutch becomes the 2nd defensive player to win it. A Michigan Tradition.