you can't have one without the other without this one
SHEEEEED
I thought that myself when I read that article that talked about a Data Scientist(tm)
if you seek an image of the most Wisconsin OL ever, enter here
wrestling had good week.
ANARCHY IN WOMEN'S TENNIS MAN
so Rutgers
Gary Andersen is openly admitting it. Oregon State admissions must be thrilled.
leave him alone a while willya
surely m00n is on the docket for this EDSBS series
escape
WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG
the nfl media is so dumb
another member of Fired Athletic Director Island. I'm getting the impression that people are just in charge of things for no reason.
yes yes god yes
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In this write-up on FO today, we discover that Michigan is projected 18th in their S&P+ data. Take a look for yourself. There's some other interesting bits in there as well:
http://footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2011/varsity-numbers-what-i...
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Don't bet on Auburn at #4 or TCU at #5.
found the numbers interesting. But I honestly don't expect Auburn to even be a top 25 this year. TCU might not be either.
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Fremeau had to say about Auburn:
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It's a model, so obviously some teams will be wrong. I just happened to open the article with TCU down three touchdowns to a fringe bowl team.
The Football Outsiders stuff is really interesting, but like any other ranking system (especially early in the year), it needs to be checked against reality--which is exactly what Fremeau did here.
I think Bill and I pretty much agree with all of this. However, the Tigers' Program F/+ rating is No. 13, 5YR recruiting is No. 11, and Program FEI is No. 7 (could be better, but Auburn stacks up well in these components of the formula).
The projection model does recognize that Auburn will take a step back. The projection model, however, has nothing to compare to Auburn. Never before has a team been so good in one season and then lost so many critical parts. We could have arbitrarily assigned some additional weight to Auburn's personnel losses, but there wasn't a way to do so without it being exactly that: arbitrary.
Our models are designed to maximize accuracy of projections for as many teams as possible. We know the model will miss on some teams. It certainly looks like Auburn is an easy candidate for a misfit for the model. I'm holding out hope that we'll get the over on 6 wins right, but I think they'll have a hard time winning 8 or 9.
It should also be noted that though F/+ projects Auburn at No.4 overall, it picks the Tigers to finish 4th in the SEC West in terms of mean conference wins:
1. Alabama (6.9)
2. LSU (5.7)
3. Arkansas (5.3)
4. Auburn (5.1)