The Football Depth Chart by Class shows how murky things are going to get for the 22 class
This waiver is causing some issues. Between the freshmen, redshirt freshmen and sophomores we have currently 77 scholarships allocated. Even if all of the 2020 juniors leave after this year, it doesn't change the above number at all. I know we will have attrition but you wouldn't think it would be more than 6-7. That allows for a low numbers class of around 15 for 2022. This will probably be like this all over the country. Less scholarships available for programs and less for high school kids. I'm not sure what the answer is unless you permanently allocate more scholarships.
December 30th, 2020 at 3:51 PM ^
My guess would be is that the powers that be will allow a gradual trickle down over the proceeding years till it straightens out.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:09 PM ^
SDM,
The powers that be is the NCAA and they aren't always the most logical thinkers. I hope you are right and that's the only way I can see it working out.
December 30th, 2020 at 7:57 PM ^
Agreed Jordan, let's just hope common sense prevails.
December 30th, 2020 at 5:01 PM ^
I'd think the answer is a one-time increase in the scholarship cap that persists through when this class would be 5th year seniors. I don't necessarily expect it to happen, but it doesn't seem that complicated. The only sticky issue I can think of is that it may favor schools with more athletic department money to throw at this issue, especially given reduced revenue this year.
December 30th, 2020 at 3:56 PM ^
Every team for the most part is dealing with the same issues. I wouldn't lose sleep over this.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:01 PM ^
It's not about "oh woe is me, my team is dealing with issues" it's about the kids that would have a scholarship available for them in a normal year that won't be able to get one.
If every school in the country is taking 25% less kids in that recruiting class, it really sucks for those lower 3 star guys who had the talent and put in the work to get a scholarship that would have been available in any other year.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:08 PM ^
CarolinaBlue,
That's where I'm at on this. Guess I really hadn't thought about it this much and I saw the depth chart and the scholarship crunch issues were glaring.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:39 PM ^
Every school won't be dealing with this. This will definitely help non Power 5 schools strengthen their rosters for a year or 2, but then the transfer portal will even things out. Having said that, there are more kids currently in the portal than they have scholarships available.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:50 PM ^
I think to that degree we'll see an influx of depth players (ie. the mid-three star type players) transfer into the non-power 5 conferences in the after the '21 and '22 season to balance things out.
The heavy hitters in recruiting will keep on recruiting and process the upper classmen not seeing the field I think. MAC schools or teams like Liberty or Coastal Carolina might want to take lighter recruiting classes until 2020 eligibility cycles through.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:05 PM ^
Brutus,
That's my point though, every team is dealing with this and the high school recruits are the ones who stand to suffer if there aren't any changes made. If you add in some of the 2020 juniors the numbers get even worse.
December 30th, 2020 at 5:18 PM ^
It's not an even playing field. I would assume, perhaps incorrectly because it is the NCAA, that larger rosters may be acceptable for a few years until the extra players are gone via graduation, or departure over a multi-year period.
There is however a significant cost having extra players on a roster and with tight athletic budgets for the next few years, assuming that fans come out in the numbers they did before Covid which may not be the case, this puts additional financial stress on already tight athletic budgets.
December 30th, 2020 at 3:58 PM ^
Campbell better bring his calculator.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:06 PM ^
Honestly, I think 2028 is the year.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:15 PM ^
And there's always 2029 if not
December 30th, 2020 at 4:23 PM ^
Yep. I think that's when we have MSU, PSU, and OSU at home and our best players are all 7th year seniors.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:41 PM ^
I know you are joking, but we no longer have the same home away schedule for the MSU and OSU games.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:08 PM ^
I have heard the models that are being explored are either a raise to 100-105 for 2021 with a gradual decline over the following 3-4 years, or a cap still at 85 for underclassman (not sure if this is just frosh thru jr's) and another 24ish for upperclassman. The upperclassman total would also be reduced gradually and removed after 3-4 years.
Both ideas assume the extra year of eligibility for anyone enrolled in 2020.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:14 PM ^
TP,
You'll have to cap the amount of years at some point to get back to the limit of 85. It'll be hard to do that because you probably have teams that have a ton in the junior class and teams like us that don't have very many. Other teams will and do send a ton to the pros and others keep their kids for 4-5 years. Each teams situation will be vaslty different. The high school kids are the ones the NCAA has to keep in mind, not focus on scholarship limits.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:56 PM ^
I’ve heard that OSU already figured this out. Make a large amount of these players “preferred walkons”, make them pay their own tuition with bag money. “Loop hole”.
December 30th, 2020 at 6:09 PM ^
Agree, and I'm not sure how the 2nd scenario would work. However, if you are granting an extra year for 85 current players, you cannot reduce that number in one year if you bring in another 22-25 kids unless you make cuts.
December 30th, 2020 at 5:43 PM ^
Harbaugh is going to process out 40 upperclassman and sign a 50 recruit class and secure the #1 recruiting class with one 5-star, nine 4-stars, and the rest 3-stars.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:21 PM ^
ESPN was saying on the Wisconsin broadcast that most school are not going to honor the waiver for additional eligibility this year,
December 30th, 2020 at 4:27 PM ^
Yeah, I bet this will be the case. I also think the number of seniors who will want to give the sixth year a try won't be as big as people think. Are graduating seniors who are going pro in something other than sports going to want to waste their time with an extra year? Additionally, if guys aren't ready to go to the NFL after five years, why would they be ready after six?
December 30th, 2020 at 4:35 PM ^
I think so as well. By the time you have the option to a 6th year of eligibility I think most guys are ready to move on to the league, or ready to hang'em up. Going through 6 years of a college football regiment would be grueling to say the least.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:34 PM ^
If I am looking at the depth chart correctly this would mean that Bell, Jeter and Hutchinson are true seniors next season and is Michigan going to honor ones such as Hawkins and Vastardis as well as give 5th year seniors such as Ross another year?
December 30th, 2020 at 4:40 PM ^
Right. Plus guys like Carlo Kemp. Technically he would be eligible for another season, but in most circumstances it would make sense for guys like him to move on.
Kemp is actually a strange case because he might actually be worth extending due to the gaping black hole of bodies at defensive tackle. The recruiting board at that position was managed as well as a Polish fire drill.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:46 PM ^
This is where I think not knowing what Michigan plans to do makes it a little confusing. If you aren't gonna keep the Kemp's of the world then we need to be raiding the transfer portal during the waiver year. Right now we have 84/85 scholarships filled. We need defensive tackles and cornerbacks but can really only sign them if we have more attrition if we aren't doing the waiver year.
December 30th, 2020 at 5:08 PM ^
Yes. Michigan's scholarship situation is definitely compounded by the coaching situation as well. It's probably going to take at least 2-3 years to dig out of their defensive roster situation.
The transfer portal would definitely help, but not many guys are going to sign on if they don't know who the head coach is going to be for the 2022 season and beyond. Unfortunately they need bodies now, but aren't in a position to acquire them.
December 30th, 2020 at 5:10 PM ^
Exactly. Everyone seems to think an extra year of eligibility equals an extra guaranteed scholarship year. I interpreted it as *schools* get to make a choice and no one is guaranteed anything more than a 4-year scholarship.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:49 PM ^
I assume they'll treat any scholarship player on a team this year not really count against the 85-player cap, but any player brought on afterwards will. So I do think you'll see some more guys jump to the pros/other teams in the coming years, but it should mostly work out.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:52 PM ^
The solution seems easy to me:
If you were enrolled in 2020, your 4th year of eligibility, whenever that happens, does not count against the 85 limit.
This would remain the rule until all players enrolled for the 2020-21 season have exhausted 4 years of eligibility.
Remember that a year of eligibility is any year you play, excluding of course 2020. Red shirt years obviously, do not count either.
For example, for next season, this means any player who had used 3 years of eligibility prior to 2020-21 would be in their 4th year of eligibility in 2021-22 (assuming they don't red shirt) and would NOT count against the 85 scholarship limit.
December 30th, 2020 at 6:17 PM ^
December 30th, 2020 at 6:49 PM ^
I fear some special wording that specifically hurts Michigan like team gets more of a break if they played 7 or more games or if their season started in September or some far out garbage like that.
December 30th, 2020 at 5:43 PM ^
I'm hoping we get a slew of transfers. This is the year to do it.
December 30th, 2020 at 6:19 PM ^
December 30th, 2020 at 6:10 PM ^
*Fewer
Really good point, though. Way to look ahead!
December 30th, 2020 at 6:58 PM ^
Portal
December 30th, 2020 at 8:18 PM ^
And yet we can't find a playable DT or CB :/
December 30th, 2020 at 10:57 PM ^
Not sure what the issue is, this is a positive effect for us, 3 stars will be easier to come by.
/ducks
December 31st, 2020 at 7:31 AM ^
What is the problem again? Because of the free year this season there will always have to be an adjustment year to get back to normal. Why kick the can down the road? Right now, athletic budgets are under attack. Oh, there are less scholarships for some lower 3* kids and below?
You will probably see some better talent flow out of the Power 5 conferences and into the next rung and so on. As scholarship's go off the books, Power 5 schools will probably reload through the transfer portal.
You may see some more preferred walk-on's at Power 5 schools. Everyone is dealing with this and when the NCAA gives everyone a one-time free transfer, it won't be the problem you seem to think it will be.