Debate: Short turnaround games vs. Long turnaround games
Got into an argument with one of my buddies from Michigan and we'd like for you all to settle it. I think we can all agree that one of our team's greatest strengths is our coach and his superior ability to gameplan and strategize.
Does this lead us to be better suited against teams when we (and they) have more time to prep or less time to prep? To be more specific, do we have a slight advantage in the Thursday/Friday games because Beilein has had a full week to prep for one opponent, or do we have an advantage in the Saturday/Sunday games because the other team has less time to prep for us?
This isn't a "nobody can beat us with a week to prep" type of post, it's just a question of which game do you feel more confident going into knowing we have Beilein.
March 20th, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^
I would vote long turnaround benefits us the most but it has nothing to do with Beilein. It has to do with us only really playing 6 guys significant minutes and all the game-planning in the world wont help you if guys have dead legs on the court.
Bingo and exactly right imho.
March 20th, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
Short turnaround games favor UM for the same reason it is so hard for young players to learn the offense. It is just as hard for teams to learn how to defend it.
March 20th, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
I would argue we have a bigger advantage when we have more time to prep. Going off of last year, Michigan did much better (at least margin of victory-wise) in their first game each weekend.
They needed the Poole shot to beat Houston on the quick turnaround after handling Montana. They blew out Texas A&M before having a close game with FSU. And obviously, they beat Loyola somewhat comfortably before losing to Nova.
I personally think John Beilein has an advantage over pretty much any coach as far as X's and O's, especially come tournament time. That being said, I feel more comfortable against opponents we have more time to prep for.
this is the correct answer. i will take JB over any coach in the country in prepping for an opponent; especially another team's offense. he and his team are very restricted when given one day of prep.
Has Coach Beilein ever lost a first game of the BTT or the NCAA Tournament? I remember THJr saying that if a Beilein team were given 5 days to prepare, the win was assured.
Michigan lost to Ohio in the first round of the 2012 NCAA Tournament. That is the only time the Wolverines didn't win the first game of a postseason tournament under Beilein (19-1: 12-0 BTT, 7-1* NCAA).
*Record reflects Michigan's 2015 First Four win over Tulsa as its first game of that NCAA Tournament.
God damn did I get blackout drunk after that loss. Was such a bitter end to the Novak/Douglass era.
The fact that team went 24-10 is a coaching miracle by Beilein. We had no inside game as J-Mo was nowhere near the player he ended up to be and his backup was Smotrycz. Burke willed that team all year but a poor shooting night for him basically spelled disaster. Hardaway was very inefficient all year and Douglass and Novak were good players but not enough to overcome our glaring flaws. It’s amazing that the 2012 and 2013 teams entered March as the same seed. Aside from Burke, none of the starters from that team would start on this year’s squad. That loss sucked but that team highly overachieved all year
Beilein's teams always trend up at the end of the year and at tournament time because offensive execution always increases in step with minutes spent actually doing it.
If anything, the fact that this year they have defense, especially in the low post, and more athleticism than usual, means they have won more games without really testing their offensive execution in the clutch, which is why they lost too many "dogfights".
Any extra time to work on execution this year helps and heals.
This is a hard question to answer because there are at least three major factors in play:
- Coaching prep time
- Quality of opponent (in general the second game of the weekend will be harder than the first)
- Depth of team
Conceivably, you could compare Beilein's records in the first vs. second game of any week in the tourney and also account for quality of opponent (using KenPom data) and then factor in average minutes per player to get a gauge on depth.
Now I'm interested if anyone wants to pull this data together, I'm sure someone has it already.
With not as many people getting substantial minutes as on some other teams, I would think that longer turnaround benefits us more. I don't think it has much if anything to do with preparation, just the size of the normal rotation we use.
Beilein has never lost the first game of the Big Ten Tournament and in 6 of 8 NCAA tournaments we have been eliminated in the second game of the weekend (including the 2016 loss to Notre Dame after winning the First Four game). The losses were the 2012 upset to Ohio, and a last-second loss to Oregon in 2017.
I'm not sure if that's enough to really draw a conclusion but it does indicate that having more than a day to prep benefits Michigan.