Betting markets still showing Michigan as a strong favorite to win the B1G
Nobody with money believes that Michigan will be punished in-season for whatever the hell this social media meltdown is.
Michigan is still a strong favorite on FanDuel and DraftKings to win the B1G Championship and go the playoffs. Ohio State has moved up from +175 to +155 after beating Wiscy and coming in #1 in the first CFP rankings. Nobody else is better than +1500.
If the betting markets actually thought there was a realistic chance that Michigan would somehow be punished in-season, OSU would immediately jump to a -600 or so favorite to win. If you actually believe this could happen, you should put a lot of money on OSU at +155 at DraftKings. Like a LOT of money! It would be the deal of a lifetime.
JJ did slip to 2nd in Heisman voting behind Penix over the last week which means that some people think voters may not vote for him due to the scandal (I could see that playing out if it’s close). But even that is sketch, I mean he is still second so he is still a strong candidate to win it.
November 3rd, 2023 at 12:12 AM ^
Not sure how sign stealing would help JJ in the slightest, but ok
November 3rd, 2023 at 5:56 AM ^
Does recognizing a defense and making adjustments - then, passing the ball into a tight window have any value?
I’m wondering.. what is the “sign” for a defense play Cover 2 or Cover 0?
November 3rd, 2023 at 7:21 AM ^
I’m going to go out on a limb. Perhaps JJ, the roster, and staff - have actually looked at game film - and identified weaknesses or tendencies Michigan’s opponents show. Then, they adjust based on what they see.
November 3rd, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
That would be ground breaking...
November 3rd, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
According to the idiots on RCMB, since we know exactly where every defender will be, JJ just has to lock on to the one receiver who will be uncovered.
November 3rd, 2023 at 12:17 AM ^
How are they going to win the Big Ten when the program will be folded by Tony Pettiti?
November 3rd, 2023 at 12:33 AM ^
Still a lot of football to be played. JJ has some big stages coming up to show what he's got.
November 3rd, 2023 at 7:22 AM ^
In JJ.. the players on the roster.. and the staff.. I trust.
Looking forward to seeing them on the field, starting Saturday evening.
November 3rd, 2023 at 12:33 AM ^
Like our weekly SP+ updates from Blue@LSU, this would be a good feature for the board at more regular intervals.
For a team operating at Michigan's level, the odds are interesting in and of themselves. But, mostly, I'm here for it as a heuristic of premature team-wide penalty.
Based on what we know of the timeline from public allegations to NCAA notice to M response to the matter being fully navigated and penalized, that has always seemed far-fetched. But 1.0th percentile possibilities could move that up, if the conference or NCAA deviate from their playbook (no pun?), and as discussed here by others, it's unlikely that those organizations would be able to keep a lid on such boardroom proceedings to such extent that Vegas were unaware.
November 3rd, 2023 at 2:05 AM ^
How is this even possible?!? Early reports based on facts and sources were that ALL Michigan games were coming off the books! /s
Can’t wait for football to be front and center again and not this sign gate stuff.
November 3rd, 2023 at 7:09 AM ^
JJ’s odds on FanDuel were first after the MSU game. Penix jumped him after his game last week. So I don’t think all this is affecting his odds.
November 3rd, 2023 at 7:43 AM ^
This is a huge point, Vegas knows EVERYTHING. They absolutely knew Sparty would suck this year and the whole Mel thing and threw out a 5.5 win total for the year and was juiced heavily towards the under, they wanted people to bet the over cuz they knew that would make money and most people would think "they cant be that bad again." That number surprised a lot of people. In this case I'll believe that something is seriously wrong when Vegas makes a move and shifts out odds in a serious manner, until then, we're still a 9.5 future favorite against Ohio and one of the favorites to win the CFP.
November 3rd, 2023 at 7:49 AM ^
Speaking of betting. Michigan at 32 seems like a safe bet. Now more than ever they need to pour it on to prove it wasnt sign stealing. If all the sudden they start not covering the spread that will add more fuel to the trolls saying "See what happens when they don't cheat?!"
November 3rd, 2023 at 8:50 AM ^
Wow I hadn't realized JJ was in 1st place. I guess the PSU and OSU will win it for him.
November 3rd, 2023 at 9:04 AM ^
Smart money keeping it real.
November 3rd, 2023 at 9:29 AM ^
So I saw the stat that Harbaugh is 51-49-2 against the spread at Michigan. So there are only 2 possible conclusions there 1. Vegas has known about the sign stealing advantage and has worked it into every single spread for the last 3 years, which means they could probably tell you how many points sign stealing is worth or 2. Sign stealing doesnt matter
November 3rd, 2023 at 10:16 AM ^
At the same time when was the last time they had a QB who was torching defenses like JJ is? Harbaugh has generally been content with running the clock down with a comfortable lead without rubbing it in and probably couldn't give two shits about the spread. This year has been a little different. He also coached in the NFL where there are no style points for margin of victory. Just win.
November 3rd, 2023 at 9:46 AM ^
I've been checking daily because it's their job to know more than us. Either they don't believe the Harbuagh suspension talk or they don't believe it would matter.