Why to Scoreboard Watch Tonight
While we're exhaling after that nail biting Michigan win, dont forget there are other hoops going on tonight that will impact Michigan's spot on the bubble.
Boston College, Miami and USC are just ahead of UM, grabbing some of the last few at large spots ahead of Michigan in most mock brackets. All three have games today against big time opponents. Its a triple header on FSN with Duke at BC, UNC at Miami and USC at ASU. They all are significant underdogs.
Here's why these games are important to UM:
*Right now, UM has the second best result of the weekend of all teams that are just in the field, or just out of the field. I put Arizona's throttling of UCLA as the best result, by far. Still that allows Michigan a chance to move up and get on more bracket lines. The perception of the win can alter drastically if one of these bubble teams pull a huge scalp tonight. In resume head bumping, for example, do we want Michigan to go up against a BC team with wins over UNC and Duke? Um, no. We'll probably lose that argument.
*What if chalk holds form? According to the Bracket Matrix that would be mean that two consensus 10-seeds, two 11-seeds and one 12-seed will all have gone down this weekend. Michigan is the only 'Final Four Out' team to notch a win, a road win vs an RPI top 100 no less. Michigan is currently in nine fields in the matrix, but only one that's been updated since the MSU loss. If chalk sweeps tonight, expect both of those numbers to increase.
*Lets look at the bubble dilemma bracketologists will have in reshaping their latest mocks. We're going to use the Bracket Junkie's mock bracket, last updated Friday, as a barometer. Its a pretty good read and offers up a different commentary from the usual suspects we see in the traditional media. Its obvious he knows his hoops and the selection process.
Notice his last 10 in the field. Three of the last seven in--Va Tech, Cincy and KSU--have already lost. Three more--BC, Miami and USC--are expected to lose tonight.
Among the large group he includes that just missed the cut, plenty others along with Michigan won. However, the Wolverines win was the best of that bunch. Michigan winning at Northwestern is beter than Providence beating Rutgers and the MWC hopefuls UNLV and SDSU smothering of second division teams. Its even better than Creighton thumping SIU on the road.
I'm throwing this bracket out here to illustrate how big of a move Michigan may yet make in this week mock brackets. This is one that's a regular read of mine where Michigan has a chance to go from seventh to last out of the field to being on a bracket line when it updates Monday.
So, Michigan still has a lot to gain today. If you're inside watching sports and NASCAR is not your thing, find your local FSN. You have a rooting interest in all three games: Duke over BC, UNC over Miami and ASU over USC.
Duke up 31-20 with 5 to go in the first half.
So any thoughts on Michigan's game today, the rest of the season and its tourney hopes? Any takes on the national landscape?
Thanks, and I will hang up and listen.
February 15th, 2009 at 6:57 PM ^
Here's where BC is seeded in some notable mocks (all last updated Friday):
Lunardi: 12 seed, last 4 In
Bracket Project: NIT, #2 seed
Bracket Junkie: 12 seed, 2nd to last in the field.
College Hoops Net: 10 seed, with an Up Arrow.
Interesting. There's some wide range there from the NIT to a 10 seed on the uptick.
If BC loses, they'll fall out of at least 2 of the above fields. Their NIT seed will be downgraded in another.
Michigan stands a good shot at replacing them for any mock bid up for grabs. Its clear where Michigan's allegiances rest with tonight, the hated Blue Devils.
Duke/BC tied at 51 with 11:24 to go.
February 15th, 2009 at 7:12 PM ^
Bad turnovers led to five straight points for BC. Eagles takes a 58-55 lead with 10 to play.
Here are a few more brackets with BC:
Bracketville: 11 seed, no worse than sixth to last out
Basketball Predictions: 9 seed.....this is the only post MSU loss update that still had UM in the field.
Bracket Maker: 12 seed.
Still no streamlined opinion on BC.....a win against Duke probably will abruptly solidify them in most everybody's bracket.
Now its 65-62 BC with 5:57 to go....Eagles just drained a 30-footer.....dammit!
February 15th, 2009 at 7:42 PM ^
80-74, Final.
Thanks for nothing, Duke Nerds.
Michigan now only has the third best result of the weekend from the pool of teams either just in, or just our of mock brackets.
BC is closing in on near lock status perhaps, barring a collapse the rest of the way. They are 2-0 vs UNC and Duke. 0-2 vs Wake. 1-1 vs VT. 0-1 vs Miami. 1-0 vs Maryland. OOC they beat, Iowa, UAB and Providence, but lost to Purdue, St Louis and Harvard.
19-8, 7-5....four games left: at Miami, vs FSU, at GT, vs NCST.
As long as they go 2-2, they should be in the field when Championship Week starts. Not sure if you can shake them out unless that record (or worse record, obviously) includes a bad loss in those final two games. Follow that with an 0-1 acc tourney record and they could be left out.
Its going to take a major slide on BC's part for Michigan to get in the field over them, given how widely assumed the Eagles are ahead of Michigan in the pecking order.
Dammit Duke!!
February 15th, 2009 at 8:36 PM ^
This is not going well. BC upsets Duke. Miami outplaying UNC. Heels lowest point total in any first half this season. Good news, though, is the Heels are still up by 3.
Here's a quick look at Da U's seeding in some mocks:
Bracket Matrix 11 seed
Lunardi/ESPN 9 seed
Bracket Project 9 seed
Bracket Junkie 12 seed...which looks shaky, but he has them as high as the seventh to last in the field.
College Hoops Net 10 seed
The Canes look pretty solid in those fields.....they have not played since last Saturday when they lose a heartbreaker to Duke. All brackets in the Brackey Matric have been updated since then and Da U is in 41 of 52 fields.
A lot of that support could crumble or increase to unanimous status based on the next half of hoops.
One problem the Canes have is if they lose this game they drop to 4-7 and 9th place in the ACC. They would have to go 4-1 down the stretch to get to .500 in the ACC.
They play at FSU, BC, at UVA, at GTech, vs NCST.
They have a shot a 4-1, but anything worse keeps them sub .500 in league play and I dont think the Canes will enter Championship Week in the bracket if thats the case. They would need a stirring run deep in the ACC tournament at that point. Certainly at least to the semi's, if not all the way to the finals in snare an at large bid.
That's just my quick breakdown while we wait for the second half to being.
February 15th, 2009 at 8:45 PM ^
Those bastards can't win when we need them to? I hope they lose so much from here on out they end up in the NIT.
February 15th, 2009 at 9:46 PM ^
At least from here on out, we get to pull for the Hokies to go down in flames.
Playing at UVA this week, Wednesday night....I know your Cavs aren't vintage this year, but I think they can win....we know its going to be close, all Hokie games are.
Go Wahoos!!!
February 15th, 2009 at 9:51 PM ^
Those Hokies are another team you can't trust to do the right thing.
Your referring to my hapless Cavaliers as not vintage is too kind. They pretty much suck, but hey, they beat Clemson! Hahah!!
Lord, I hope they can beat Tech at home. We shall see.
February 15th, 2009 at 10:03 PM ^
you would be taking some joy out beating Climpsen.
It gives the Cavs a lock grip on 11th place in the ACC standings.
Where have you gone Bryant Stith? Or John Crotty? Someone, anyone?
February 15th, 2009 at 9:43 PM ^
But it was not enough for the Canes. UNC takes care of business and helps improve UM's bubble position.
Its going to take a big run here at the end of the season for the Canes to get to .500 in league play. I dont think teams are grabbing at large's with a losing league mark. The Bubble will be too crowded for that to get a bid unless there are extenuating circumstances and/or a deep league tourney run follows.
Great result for Michigan in this one.
Canes now go to FSU Wednesday night for a huge game. Big time rivalry meets killer bubble implications. One of the Games of the Week between now and when Michigan plays next.
February 15th, 2009 at 10:16 PM ^
This game, I factor, is the most important as it pertains to who is and is not a consensus team in the field when the mocks update tomorrow.
In the Bracket Matrix, USC is left out of 9 of 25 brackets, almost 40 percent, that have been updated to include action played during the week. If the Trojans lose tonight, how do the folks who still have them in (half of whom have them as a 12) keep them in the field. Michigan could very well sub in for USC if a lot of those brackets change.
Lunardi and College Hoops Net already have them out. Bracket Project and Bracket Junkies still have them hanging in on the 12 line.
And that does not take into account the other half of the Bracket Matrix that has not updated at all since last Monday. USC is in almost all of those fields as a double digit seed, but if USC loses, those mocks would have to take in account two USC losses.
The Trojans are out of the Matrix with a loss tonight....Michigan and Creighton are two teams most likely to replace them....thats just a guess on my part, though.
February 16th, 2009 at 1:37 PM ^
Even beating Purdue to get to 9-9 - with a home win against the Gophers and at Iowa - puts us behind Minny in almost any bracket, and I just don't see how the B10 gets seven teams in (Wisconsin is a lock given its remaining schedule) unless somebody (Michigan or Penn State) makes a run in the B10 tourney.
February 16th, 2009 at 2:23 AM ^
Jamie and OC, are you guys baiting me here?
February 16th, 2009 at 7:47 AM ^
I'm pretty sure we could come up with some zingers. How often do we all want Duke to win? You think they'd be able to oblige, but noooooooooooo.
At least ASU and UNC took care of business.
Comments