Over the last few years tempo free statistics in basketball have become more prevalent.  I almost scoff when announcers use regular per game averages, so I thought I would try to take a look at tempo free statistics for football.  It might not be as prevalent in football because there is a lower spread in tempos.  In basketball, there is a big difference between Wisconsin’s 58 possessions a game and North Carolina’s 72 possessions a game[1].  In football, Michigan had 11 possessions a game, while Nebraska had 13.8 possessions per game.  [Sorry I didn’t track Oregon, but I would imagine they are at or above Nebraska].  This is a very simplistic look at what Tempo Free football might look like.

The first step is simple enough I divided the total yards by the possessions for Yards Per Possession (YPP) and total Points by possessions for Points Per Possession (PPP).  A few adjustments were made, 1^st I didn’t include any overtime yardage or possessions because it skews the YPP down and the PPP up.  2^nd I didn’t count any kneel downs at the end of the game or half as a possession (but I didn’t adjust the yardage for that kneel down – I don’t believe that this would result in a significant difference in results).  I only looked at the Big Ten to adjust for schedule strength such as Michigan playing the #1 and #2 teams in the country, while Ohio toughs it out against 3-9 California at home. 

Brian’s alter ego can’t make it today, but here’s a bunch of charts anyway.  (Numbers in parenthesis is the traditional yards per game rank in the Big Ten).  Commentary will follow at the end. 

Rank		Team	Yards per Possession
1		Michigan (5)	36.16
2		PSU (1)	34.03
3	Ohio (3)		34.00
4	Wisconsin (4)		33.83
5	Nebraska (2)		32.19
6	Northwestern (7)		30.20
7	Indiana (6)		28.88
8	Purdue (8)		27.02
9	MSU (9)		26.39
10	Iowa (10)		25.66
11	Minnesota (11)		24.59
12	Illinois (12)		22.50

 

Despite being 5^th in the traditional measure, Michigan accumulates the most yards per possession in the Big Ten.  The scoring offense is similar

Rank	Team	Points per Possession
1	Ohio (1)	2.93
2	Michigan (3)	2.87
3	Wisconsin (4)	2.53
4	PSU (2)	2.45
5	Northwestern (6)	2.28
6	Nebraska (5)	2.22
7	Indiana (7)	2.06
8	Iowa (8)	1.71
9	Minnesota (11)	1.49
10	Purdue (t9)	1.48
11	MSU (t9)	1.43
12	Illinois (12)	1.05

Defensive Stats:

Rank	Team	Yards per Possession
1	Wisconsin (2)	21.78
2	Nebraska (3)	22.79
3	Michigan (1)	25.77
4	MSU (4)	25.77
5	Ohio (5)	27.15
6	PSU (6)	27.62
7	Minnesota (7)	31.49
8	Illinois (8)	32.66
9	Northwestern (9)	33.18
10	Purdue (10)	33.19
11	Iowa (11)	35.95
12	Indiana (12)	38.46

 

Rank	Team	Points per Possession
1	Wisconsin (2)	1.24
2	Michigan (1)	1.39
3	MSU (3)	1.51
4	PSU (4)	1.71
5	Nebraska (t7)	1.94
6	Northwestern (6)	2.05
7	Ohio (5)	2.07
8	Iowa (t7)	2.20
9	Minnesota (9)	2.37
10	Illinois (11)	2.46
11	Purdue (10)	2.51
12	Indiana (12)	2.96

 

While using Big Ten only stats eliminates most of the schedule disparity there is still some schedule imbalance.  To adjust for this I divided the individual YPP by the opponent average then averaged the result. 

First the offense:

Rank	Team	Yards
1	Nebraska	118.9%
2	Ohio	118.3%
3	Michigan	117.6%
4	Wisconsin	107.9%
5	PSU	107.6%
6	Northwestern	105.4%
7	Indiana	99.5%
8	Purdue	92.3%
9	MSU	89.3%
10	Iowa	85.8%
11	Minnesota	85.0%
12	Illinois	76.8%

 

Rank	Team	Points
1	Ohio	140.9%
2	Nebraska	131.3%
3	Michigan	130.0%
4	Northwestern	124.3%
5	Indiana	108.3%
6	PSU	106.4%
7	Wisconsin	104.7%
8	Iowa	85.5%
9	Purdue	77.3%
10	Minnesota	75.7%
11	MSU	65.3%
12	Illinois	52.4%

 

Now the Defense:

Rank	Team	Yards
1	Nebraska	74.2%
2	Wisconsin	78.0%
3	MSU	83.4%
4	Ohio	91.6%
5	Michigan	92.4%
6	PSU	97.1%
7	Illinois	104.3%
8	Minnesota	107.6%
9	Purdue	111.4%
10	Northwestern	113.4%
11	Iowa	124.7%
12	Indiana	128.7%

 

Rank	Team	Points
1	Wisconsin	71.5%
2	MSU	81.3%
3	Nebraska	86.8%
4	PSU	88.2%
5	Michigan	89.2%
6	Northwestern	100.4%
7	Illinois	106.7%
8	Iowa	111.3%
9	Minnesota	113.3%
10	Ohio	114.0%
11	Purdue	114.8%
12	Indiana	141.2%

 

So that’s a lot of numbers, what does any of it mean?  Let’s start with the offense.  In conventional stats, Michigan is ranked 5^th in yards per game and 3^rd in points per game.  However, given our low tempo we move up to 1^st in yards per possession and 2^nd in points per possession.  So despite our offensive line troubles we have been very efficient in our offense.  We managed to avoid both the best and the worst teams in YPP defense, but relative to the strength of the defenses we have faced we have the 3^rd most efficient offense.  However, if you throw out the Nebraska game (which hopefully is because it is a non-repeatable event given that would mean both Denard and Devin go down), we shoot up to number 1 by a long way.  I don’t like to throw out only one extreme, so if you throw out the best performance against Iowa’s impersonation of air we drop right back to 3^rd.

 

How about the defense?  By the conventional measures Michigan has the best defense in the Big Ten.  However, once we adjust for our slow tempo, we find that the defense drops to 5^th.   We love our defense how is that possible?  I think there are a couple potential explanations: 1) Throw-God Trevor Simien and the elusive Colter -- Northwestern was Michigan’s worst performance of the year.   2) Michigan always seems to have one or 2 bad drives per game regardless of how bad the offense is (Illinois need not apply).  MSU, Iowa, Minnesota all had 2 long scoring drives where it was completely out of character for both them and us. And since they are so bad offensively that bad drive is enough to put them above their average.  In other words, Michigan has yet to put together a full game defensively. 

 

What about the game this weekend?  We already talked about what Michigan needs to do – Remain efficient on offense and play a full 60 minutes (or more) on defense.  Ohio has an extremely efficient offense, and their defense is very solid on a yardage basis.  However, Ohio gives up a lot of points despite their good yardage defense.  I believe this is largely a reflection of their turnover margin and I think they have had 2 punts blocked in Big Ten play.  As in every big game ever Turnovers will be important. 

 

Other interesting notes – Nebraska has a much better defense than people here have given them credit for.  Ucla was more the aberration than the rule.  Northwestern may be really close to being 11-0, but they are also getting outgained by their competition which could be an indicator that they could be close to .500 for the season.  [Though how many of those yards came in the 4^th quarter?]