Rational Fanatic

Submitted by Ron Utah on

Jim Harbaugh: The original rational fanatic

Jim Harbaugh appears crazy to a lot of people.  He seems borderline homicidal on the sidelines after a bad call, even stripping in anger.  He can look at reporters with the burning hatred of 1,000 suns after they ask (or worse, repeat) a stupid question.  

But there is no denying his genius.  While he is, through and through, a football fanatic, he is also a brilliant schemer, motivator, and leader.

This column probably won't be weekly, but it's an ode to Jim's brand of simplicity: quick-hitting facts rooted in more data than opinion...because I'm trying to learn to be a rational fanatic myself.  This is coming from a guy who thought Brady Hoke was the next great Michigan coach.

  • Actually Aggressive.  If you've ever seen an introductory press conference for a Defensive Coordinator, then you have heard a man claim his defense is "aggressive."  Don Brown actually means it.  Through four games, Michigan has recorded 44 TFLs, 17 of which are sacks.  Last year's defense recorded 88 TFLs for the season with 32 sacks.  So in four games, we are already at 50% of last year's totals.  We never had more than 10 TFLs in a game last year; that is the fewest we have recorded in a game this year (and that was against Hawaii!).  Michigan is #1 in the country in TFLs, and #2 in TFLs/game (Miami (YTM)), and we are tied for #1 in sacks and sacks/game.  Eleven teams had over 100 TFLs last year; Michigan is a pretty sure bet to join that club this season.  Only 7 teams recorded 40 or more sacks, another number I expect us to attain.
  • Late Bloomer.  Through four games last year, Jehu Chesson had recorded seven receptions and zero TDs.  Through four games this year, he's got eight catches (and no TDs).  There is still time for him to find that All-American form that puncuated last season.
  • The Quest for 1,000.  De'Veon Smith recorded 331 rushing yards through four games last season, cresting 125 yards twice.  He would only break 100 yards once more (bowl game) and totaled 753 yards for the year.  This year he only has 259 yards, but he has done that on 30 fewer attempts, averaging nearly two yards more per carry.  But as a team, Michigan has 110 more rushing yards than we had last season at this time, averaging over half-a-yard more per carry.  While it doesn't look good to have a 1,000 yard rusher this season, expect the team's rushing attack to outpace last year's.  Also, no back (other than Smith) broke 275 yards rushing last year; I expect FOUR to do it this year.

  • Buckets of Good.  Speaking of our rushing attack, I have been impressed with all four RBs and their progress under second-year coach and Michigan legend Ty Wheatley.  While there is no superstar this season, both Higdon and Evans look like potential 1,000 yard guys in the future.  And, actually, I am really high on Karan Higdon and was pleased to see him get carries early in last week's game.  While Isaac is physically gifted, he seems to lack some of the instincts that make RBs great.  But all four are good-to-very good, and greatness might show-up next season.  My own assessment of the backs (purely as rushers) thus far ranks them like this:
  1. Smith
  2. Higdon
  3. Evans
  4. Isaac
  • Better than Best.  Last year's national leader in TFLs was Clemson's Shaq Lawson.  He finished the season with 25.5, an average of 1.7/game.  Jabrill Peppers has already recorded 9.5 TFLs for a 2.4/game average.  And this is without recording a TFL against Penn State.  FWIW, Michigan has four players in the top 100 nationally in TFLS (Gedeon, McCray, Gary).  Going back to 2007 (as far as cfbstats.com goes), no player has recorded over 30 TFLs in a season, which works out to an average of 2.3/game.
  • Right and Wrong.  Who would have thought Wisconsin would be coming to the Big House with wins over LSU and MSU?  Not me.  That said, I think Vegas has this line about right: Michigan by 10 is my prediction.  I was right about Hawaii, wrong about UCF (thought we'd have an easier time and a shutout there), right about Colorado (expected a tougher-than-expected game), and right about Penn State (thought we'd win easily).  While Michigan State will give us a brutally tough game in E.L., I feel confident we head to Columbus undefeated and don't think Iowa will be too much of a challenge. 

Comments

Go.Blue.Hail

September 27th, 2016 at 8:23 PM ^

I agree with you about the tailbacks. Really excited about Higdon and Evans in the future. I also don't see it with Isaac. Maybe it's because he is a very large man running the football, but he seems a little awkward and indecisive, especially when he about to be contacted. To me he is clearly the 4th back on the depth chart. So far his production has been about equal to the other backs, but you can't help but think he has much more potential to be unlocked mentally.

DonAZ

September 28th, 2016 at 7:24 AM ^

... claim his defense is "aggressive."  Don Brown actually means it.  Through four games, Michigan has recorded 44 TFLs, 17 of which are sacks.

This got me thinking ... is there a way to statistically measure the net-effectiveness of an aggressive, attacking defense? 

(I understand that  the scoreboard ultimately yields the true measure of the effectiveness.)

I guess what I'm getting at is the numbers above are raw numbers, and it's possible -- though not the case with Michigan this year -- but it's possible those TFL and sack numbers could be matched against big plays made by opposing offenses.  That's the "downside" to an aggressive defense -- when the defense's aggressive attack does not quite get home before a QB scrambles for a long gain, or a blitz misses its mark and a receiver gets the ball for a TD.

So, in the spirit of the "rational" tag above ... I'm wondering if there's a way to capture the "net" effectiveness of an aggressive, attacking defense.  Sacks / blitz?  Some other ratio that balances attempts to results?

... even stripping in anger

This turn of a phrase caught my eye.  I like it ... it seems to convey an extra degree of anger ... but I've never seen it used before.

I googled around and found some references to infants who will "strip in anger" -- remove their clothing in a display of rebellion and frustration -- and I'm wondering if that was the genesis for your use of that phrase?

Ron Utah

September 28th, 2016 at 12:20 PM ^

Never answered your first question; our defense certainly appears to be a "break-but-don't-bend" outfit, but even the advanced metrics (Havoc, S&P) have us ranked at the top of the heap.

And, actually, on at least a pair of the big plays (UCF long run, one of the Colorado TDs) the defense was NOT overly aggressive--they just blew their assignments.  Remember, there was supposed to be bracket coverage on the Colorado receiver for a TD (Peppers flubbed that) and the UCF run was just a comedy of errors.

Stripping in anger.

The Mad Hatter

September 28th, 2016 at 7:46 AM ^

I think we're going to pound the hell out of MSU.  We're going to score early and often, breaking their collective will to live by the 3rd quarter.

Wisconsin will be a tougher game, but I don't think they'll be able to handle our speed on defense.  I expect the game to be close at the half, and then not so close at the end.

We've been scoring a lot of points this year.  I think the new "normal" is going to be at least 35+ per game (52 so far).

Icehole Woody

September 28th, 2016 at 8:39 AM ^

Not worried about Chesson in the slightest.   Mr. All American will be there whenever needed.  Glad to see others coming along nicely in the early season.  It's best for the team.

Go Blue!

GotBlueOnMyMind

September 28th, 2016 at 9:51 AM ^

Given the issues that Chesson and Rudock had last year to start the year, I think a large cause of Chesson's lack of production is that his injury from the bowl game prevented him from developing chemistry with Speight? Or, maybe that's just what I'm hoping to be the case.

Hotroute06

September 30th, 2016 at 6:03 PM ^

So far everything we hoped would happen is happening. The question mark about our quarterback has been answered and has been solid to good. The defense has been as advertised. As Gary keeps getting better the team will keep getting better and better. The biggest thing in my opinion is that this freshman class has given us enough depth for late in the season which will keep everything rolling. Tomorrow we gotta make Hornibrook beat us and shut down that Wisconsin running attack at all costs. I'm looking for McCray and Gideon to have big games.