chance of bowl: 13.6%
PPFP Crystal Ball: Week 5
After putting together the data for the Point per Field Position post I put up earlier, I realized that I could Frankenstein the data into a projection for the game score. What follows is method and result. I'll skip the gory details because they're boring.
Nothing spectacular, going with equal parts offense and defense. So if Michigan’s Offense scores an average of 2 points per possession from a certain sector and State’s Defense gives up 3 points per possession, the expected value used would be 2.5 points per possession. The result of this operation is Michigan scoring at an aggregated 2.7 points per possession and State at 2.2 ppp. Expected Number of possessions
Michigan has been averaging 14 possessions per game where as State has been averaging 12 possessions per game. Same idea as the method to generate performance expectations; using 13 possessions in a 4 quarter game.
Giving State a home field advantage of 3 points we end up with this: Michigan 35, Michigan State 31. This lines up pretty closely with Brian's and The Mathlete's projections so it'll be interesting to see how it turns out.Hmmm
There is another way of assembling the numbers that has beating State by 10 (38 -28)based on performance during drives not starting via a special teams play such as fumbles, interceptions, missed field goal attempts, and turnover on downs. But, I dont know if doing what I did was fair so I'm just tossing it out there for fun. WEE!