Week 11 predictions and analysis can be found here: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/post-week-10-yardage-analysis-and-prediction…

Statistically, UM had a good game defensively and a bad game offensively. Yeah, pretty much what you and I already knew. It's tough to really go into any kind of analysis because with the weather, everything was affected. Both offenses struggled to hang onto the ball. Both defenses probably played their best games of the year. I guess one positive note that can be taken from the Purdue game, and really the entire season, is that UMs offense has still not be held under their opponents average yards given up per game. The Purdue game was the lowpoint for the season, at just over 109% of Purdue's defensive average. On the flipside, UMs defense had their best game of the season statistically. They held Purdue's offense to 82% of their season average. Again, how much of this really matters based on the effect weather played in this game is up to you. I guess the one big thing I'd take away from the Purdue game, besides the win, is that UMs offensive line is really the heart of this offense. They played poorly, thus cutting down time for DR to throw the ball and open up running lanes. Anyway, glad they won, but let's move on.

Wisconsin charts...

Before Wisonsin massacred Indiana, they were the 5th ranked defense and 6th ranked offense on UMs schedule. Hanging nearly 600 yards on your opponent will do that to a ranking with such a small sample size. Take these rankings with a grain of salt, but, according to this, Wisconsin is the third best team UM will play this year. That Iowa vs. OSU game this weekend also looks like it could be a great game to watch. Go Hawks.

 

Percentage Error calculation took a hit this past weekend. UMs offense was short nearly 150 yards and their defense gave up nearly 110 yards less than I predicted. At this point, UMs offense is more capricious, while the defense is more consistent.

 

 

Wisconsin got a major boost for their offensive prediction from the IU game, Their average starting position was on the IU 49 yard line, so they scored a bunch of points on fewer yard than it would normally take on average. They were averaging right around 50 yards per TD scored against IU. For the season, Wisonsin is averaging 74 yards per TD scored. Before the IU game, they were averaging nearly 81 yards per TD scored. UM is averaging nearly 97 yards per TD scored on the season. Turnovers, penalties, bad starting field position are all culprits.

With that said, UM still has a good shot in this game. They look like a 6 to 7 point dog going into the game. Add on the -3 for homefield advantage, and you have UM +3 or 4. If UM is going to have any chance in this game, they need a good to great game from the offense and defense.

 

Predictions...

Yards

UM - 472

UW - 450

 

Score

UM - 42

UW - 38