Post Week 10: Yardage Analysis and Predictions + Score Predictor

Submitted by tpilews on November 8th, 2010 at 2:25 PM

Week 9 Predictor and analysis can be found here:…

Well, as I stated from the previous diary, UM needed to have one of their best games defensively and offensively against Illinois to get a win. While UM giving up 45 after regulation, and 65 for the game, looks bad, yardage wise it was just about what I predicted. Illinois gained 486 yards in regulation and I predicted 458 yards for a 5.7% difference. I think a better metric for showing just how well the UM defene played would be yards/possession. You can also look at the fact that UMs defense held Illinois's offense scoreless on 50% of their possessions (8 of 16). UM tackled well and really seemed to play faster. This is great to see out of a young defense.

UMs offense fair exceeded expectations. Even though they put up 67 points on the day, the team missed opportunities early in the game to get a lead and pull away. Turnovers hurt the offense, but the defense picked them up. Yardage wise, this was UM best game of the season. Illinois typically gives up 275 yards of offense to the opponents. UM put up 601 yards in regulation, a 218% mark. That brings UMs offensive efficiency up to 158.21% for the season.


Moving on to Purdue...


This is what UM has done to date...



Offense and Defense rankings (only teams on UMs schedule). The rankings do not include the head-to-head matchup with UM.


Predictions for Purdue game. Include percentage error, high and low.



Percentage Error season calucation


Taking a look at Purdue's yards/point metric, they're the opposite of what you want. Their offense is scoring slowly, and their defense is giving up points quickly; even more quickly than UMs defense. UMs offense is scoring just about as fast as Purdue's defense is giving them up. All this spells a good game for UM. One theme that seems to classify college football this season is emotion and how you respond. South Carolina goes out and beats #1 Alabama and then loses to unranked Kentucky the following week. Missouri beats #1 Oklahoma and then loses back-to-back games to Nebraska and unranked Texas Tech. Now, while the win over Illinois isn't exactly a win over the number one team in the land, it was an emotional victory for UM. And they have to play on the road this weekend with an even bigger game against Wisconsin the week after. Can UM come out focused against Purdue and take care of business? I think so.




UM - 625

Purdue - 350



UM - 48

Purdue - 24



November 8th, 2010 at 3:44 PM ^

I think we found our defensive strategy for the rest of the season last week. Maybe some minor tweeks here and there. 2 years ago we switched to the 3-3-5 and it was a nightmare. If Siller plays, I think we are in a much better position to stop them and they probably are not in a good position to run their normal offense.


November 8th, 2010 at 4:08 PM ^

I actually think this model is on point.  It would be so nice to have a no drama victory and allow some rotation of guys during the game, especially at QB.  We need a fully healthy Denard for the two last games.