Last year, I started writing up the current state of the playoff race each week we had CFP rankings because I couldn’t find any well-known publications that were examining the teams in the race and what they needed to do to make it in.* The zaniness of college football means following who will make the playoff is not nearly as cut and dry as, say, the NFL, so I think it’s interesting to track as the situation develops. I try to keep things relatively objective and report the facts of each team’s situation rather than what I think will happen, which mostly means looking at where teams are currently ranked and probabilities of winning remaining games. So, with that out of the way, here’s where we currently stand in the CFB Playoff race:

*Last year I would post these to r/CFB and people seemed to enjoy them, but given the current state of that subreddit I thought it’d be more enjoyable to post here. 

(Note: all probabilities and rankings are according to SP+)  

 

The “wiggle room” tier:

 

Ohio State (CFP #1, AP Poll #3, SP+ #3)

Alas, unfortunately our hated Buckeyes take the top spot in the CFP rankings. Even more unfortunate: it’s a completely reasonable ranking. Wins over Notre Dame and Penn State might not have looked pretty, but they’re two of the best wins that any team can boast (especially considering the Notre Dame game was in South Bend). I’ve seen plenty of comparisons between this team and classic “Tressel-Ball” teams, which feels spiritually correct even if Jim probably would’ve murdered his QB if they turned the ball over 3 times in one game. Given their current ranking and the strong wins they hold the Bucks probably could survive dropping a game before the end of the year, which is good news for them since SP+ figures they only have a 26% chance of winning out but an 83% chance of going at least 11-1. I don’t have to tell all of you what the bad news (for them) is: the game they are most likely to lose is, by far, the Michigan game (34% chance of winning), and that would mean not only losing the one game they most want to win, but also probably not winning the conference. Obviously OSU made the playoff in that exact situation last year, but it required some chaos in their favor, so they probably want to avoid banking on that. 

What they need to do to make the playoff: lose no more than one of their remaining games. However, if that one loss is against Michigan and bars them from a conference championship, things could get hairy.

 

Georgia (CFP #2, AP Poll #1, SP+ #2)

Coming in at #2 is Georgia, the two-time defending national champions. Georgia is almost on the same level of “ain’t played nobody” as Michigan, although according to SP+ Kentucky (#25) and Florida (#35) are both better teams than anyone that Michigan has faced. The fact that they obliterated both of those opponents is probably why they’re still #1 in the AP Poll, but the CFP committee apparently was less impressed by some of their struggles against mediocre teams. And Georgia truly has had some struggles this year: games against Auburn and South Carolina were far from convincing wins, and even their game against Vanderbilt wasn’t the beatdown you might expect from a top team. However, two of their three most recent games were the aforementioned obliterations of decent teams, and they finish the year with three SP+ top 20 teams (#14 Missouri, #11 Ole Miss, @ #19 Tennessee) and a feisty Georgia Tech team (#73 but honestly all over the place). If the Dawgs are the real deal once again, they’ve got a chance to showcase it. SP+ believes they are, giving them a 40% chance of winning out the regular season and only a 15% chance of losing twice (granted, SP+ doesn't take into account injuries to Heisman-level players, so the probabilities could be slightly worse). The real test, though? Whoever happens to make it out of the SEC West. Luckily for them, if Georgia takes care of business elsewhere they can probably afford to lose that game. 

What they need to do to make the playoff: lose no more than one of their remaining games (unless Missouri is secretly elite and somehow wins out to take the SEC East).

 

The “you could probably afford to drop a game but I wouldn’t test that theory” tier:

 

Michigan (CFP #3, AP Poll #2, SP+ #1)

#3 is bit lower than we wanted, I’m sure, but not terribly unexpected given the schedule thus far. I know we are all quite familiar with the current goings-on of our season, so here are some probabilities for you: SP+ gives Michigan a 37% chance of winning out, which is quite good considering the difficulty of our remaining schedule. The Penn State (#10) and Ohio State (#3) games both sit at about a 66% chance of winning, while Maryland is at 85%; lowly Purdue is nearly 100%. The trickiest thing for Michigan is that one loss might prove fatal: a loss to Penn State but a win over Ohio State could embroil us in a three-way tie that probably won’t be favorable (somehow, our hopes would lie with Nebraska), and a win over Penn State but a loss to Ohio State would likely hand the Buckeyes the division – not to mention being fatal in other ways. Both of these scenarios could leave us without a conference championship. Ultimately, though, I think we could sneak in even with a loss. The Purdue and Maryland games are essentially mulligans a la Illinois last year, Penn State could very well drop another game or fall behind in the three-way-tie scenario, and losing to the Buckeyes is an awful thing to think about but nothing that the committee would scoff at. As I said above: let’s not test that theory.

What we need to do to make the playoff: go undefeated in our “2 game season”; withstand the slings and arrows of the media.

 

Florida State (CFP #4, AP Poll #4, SP+ #8)

The Noles are back, baby! Florida State has lived up to the preseason hype. The Fightin’ Keon Colemans kicked off the year by toppling a similarly-hyped LSU team and haven’t slowed down since. Sure, they hit some bumps – most notably, a near loss to a putrid Boston College team – but they’re cruising at the moment, dispatching mediocre ACC team after mediocre ACC team. However, while the ACC is a similar level of mid to the Big Ten, it lacks the top end talent: the Seminoles won’t face anyone truly scary in their final four games, with their two toughest tests being home against arch rival #23 Miami and on the road against arch rival #35 Florida. Both of these games present a 75% chance of winning, adding up to a staggering 48% chance of winning out and an 88% (!!!) chance of losing no more than one game. Also unlike the Big Ten, though, the ACC championship game probably won’t be a walkover: the two teams below FSU in the standings are a scrappy one-loss Louisville team and…Virginia Tech? What? How…ok, maybe it will be a walkover.

What they need to do to make the playoff: lose no more than one game – but the weakness of the ACC could prove problematic if there are a few one-loss teams they’re vying for the final spot with. If LSU keeps winning that’ll certainly help them.

 

Washington (CFP #5, AP Poll #5, SP+ #7)

Fellow Spartan-destroyer Washington and their Heisman hopeful Penix have looked elite at times this year and have a season-defining victory over the rival Ducks. That’s one of the best wins any team has this season….but at the moment it’s papering over the fact that three of their past four games have all been uninspiring clunkers, probably the reason they rank the lowest of the undefeateds. You’ll be forgiven for sleeping through their struggle with the Sun Devils (#79) or not even realizing they were playing as they sleepwalked through a game against the worst power 5 team according to SP+ (#102 Stanford), but it feels like this team needs to step it up or they might be “due” for a loss. SP+ agrees – they’re the only top 5 team that has a better chance of going 10-2 (28%) than 12-0 (22%). That really might say more about their schedule, though: they finish with three SP+ top-30 teams (@ #14 USC, #26 Utah, and @ #18 Oregon State) and a finale against a scorned Wazzu program. A loss certainly feels likely – and that’s not even mentioning a Pac-12 Championship game that very well might be a revenge spot for Oregon. As alluded to previously, one loss shouldn’t knock them out of the conversation, though: in the event they do lose one game, it will come against a good team and will be paired with a trio of solid wins. They probably belong in the “wiggle room” tier but the #5 ranking means they have some impressing to do.

What they need to do to make the playoff: lose no more than one of their remaining games and win the Pac-12.

 

The “you cannot afford to drop a game, but win and you’ve got a very good shot” tier:

 

Oregon (CFP #6, AP Poll #6, SP+ #4)

At #6, we get our first of the one-loss teams. Oregon lost a heartbreaker at Washington a few weeks ago that has left them as the second banana in the Pac-12. That’s the bad news. The good news: the chance for revenge. Oregon and Washington have been a cut above the rest of the Pac this year, doing their best Michigan/Ohio State impression as they prepare to join the Big Ten. Oregon lost the battle, but might yet win the war: SP+ says they have a 48% chance of winning out, with only two remaining win probabilities lower than 90% (#14 USC at 73% and #18 Oregon State at 75%). You’ll note that Washington also plays both of those teams – but on the road instead of at home. Get through the rest of the schedule unscathed, and they should get a chance to avenge the midseason loss. Maybe the third time will be the charm for the Ducks to beat Penix.

What they need to do to make the playoff: win out – but it’s possible that could leave them at #5 behind, say, an undefeated Michigan and Florida State and one-loss Georgia and Bama. Not much you can do about that, though.

 

Texas (CFP #7, AP Poll #7, SP+ #5)

In a ranking that is sure not to be controversial at all, Texas slides in at #7. I could probably copy and paste what I wrote about Oregon here: Texas has looked good this season but are being hampered by a heartbreaking loss to their bitter rival. They have something Oregon doesn’t have yet, though: one of the most impressive wins of the year. Texas’s win @ Bama earlier this year launched them squarely into “back” territory, and they’ve looked the part ever since. Sure, they had the aforementioned heartbreaking loss, but much like Oregon, the chance for revenge is there for the taking. Getting there won’t be easy, as Texas still has a good Kansas State team (#13) and a few other trap-game worthy opponents (@ #28 TCU, @ #37 Iowa State, #34 Texas Tech), but SP+ gives them a decent 31% chance at winning out. The toughest of those games is coming up this weekend versus defending Big 12 champ KSU (66% chance of winning), so get past that and the Longhorns can start eyeing revenge – and a playoff spot.

What they need to do to make the playoff: win out. I truly can’t imagine a Texas team with a win @ Bama being left out of the playoff, especially since winning the Big 12 potentially means avenging their only loss, but if the top teams keep winning it’s possible (see: the Oregon scenario).

 

Alabama (CFP #8, AP Poll #8, SP #6)

Quite an odd season so far for the Crimson Tide. Bama has had their fair share of issues this year, many stemming from less-than-stellar QB and offensive line play. One issue they’ve mostly avoided? Actually losing games. Bama has looked far from their peak under Saban but still rattled off six straight wins after dropping a home game to a good Texas team. None of those wins featured particularly impressive play, but two came against ranked opponents and three came on the road. Their second toughest opponent this year is coming up this weekend as a high-powered LSU offense comes to town. SP+ figures the Tide have a 63% chance of winning that one, and that feels right: any team that can score 49 points and still lose is probably going to have a tough time in Tuscaloosa. There’s still a chance at losing after that game too, as they finish the year facing two middling SEC teams but both on the road (@ #25 Kentucky and @ #43 Auburn). SP+ says they still have a 34% chance of winning out, and I don’t think it’d shock anyone to see Bama right back in the playoff conversation going into the SEC title game.

What they need to do to make the playoff: win out. Truthfully, they belong in the “win and you’re in” tier because a one loss SEC-champ Bama is *not* getting left out of the playoff. In fact, as long as they lose no more than one regular season game and win the SEC they have a good shot at making it. Bama breaks my tier system.

 

Oklahoma (CFP #9, AP Poll #10, SP+ #11)

Remember the recently mentioned “wiggle room” tier? Well, over the weekend Oklahoma exemplified why that wiggle room is nice to have. After losing a barn-burner to a revitalized Kansas program, the Sooners fell from first place in the Big 12 all the way down to *tied* for first place in the Big 12. This lands them at #9, two spots behind their Longhorn enemies they knocked off a few weeks ago. The remaining schedule isn’t terrifying, but features a few tricky spots: a suddenly decent rival in #33 Oklahoma State (led by old friend Alan Bowman) and a potential look ahead spot versus #28 TCU in the final game of the year. The game being looked-ahead-to would be the Big 12 championship game, but that's not a sure thing since the top of the Big 12 standings are a Big Ten West-esque morass at the moment: 5 teams are tied for first place at 4-1 (two of which lost to Group of 5 teams, hilariously). SP+ feels it’s more likely than not that they drop another game, but not by much: the Sooners have a hearty 39% chance of winning out. This weekend’s Bedlam game feels like an underrated matchup that might be an indication of how the rest of the year will go for the Big 12.

What they need to do to make the playoff: win out. A theoretical second win over Texas in the Big 12 Title game could very well leave their resume strong enough to make the playoff even with a loss. It’ll help if Kansas continues to look pretty good, too (side note: do we really want to find out what will happen, like, metaphysically, if a team that lost to Kansas still makes the playoff?).

 

The “you don’t get a full preview because there are too many teams in the race right now and your odds are relatively long” tier:

Ole Miss (CFP #10, AP Poll #11, SP+ #16)

What they need to do to make the playoff: win out and hope Bama loses twice so they can win the division. Not great odds.

Penn State (CFP #11, AP Poll #9, SP+ #10)

What they need to do to make the playoff: win out, hope Michigan beats Ohio State, and…root for Iowa? Big Ten tiebreakers are weird.

Missouri (CFP #12, AP Poll #14, SP+ #20)

What they need to do to make the playoff: win out. The issue: that means beating Georgia and the SEC West winner. The good news is that if they do that, they’re *definitely* in.

Louisville (CFP #13, AP Poll #15, SP+ #24)

What they need to do to make the playoff: win out and hope for some chaos – although beating FSU in the championship game might be enough of a feather in their cap to sneak in.

LSU (CFP #14, AP Poll #13, SP+ #12)

What they need to do to make the playoff: win out and hope for an Ole Miss loss so they can win the division. The only two-loss team here, but they can still notch a victory over Bama and win the SEC, so…yeah, there’s a chance.

 

KEY MATCHUPS THIS WEEK:   

LSU @ Alabama

Missouri @ Georgia

Washington @ USC

 

Predicted playoff (based on current probabilities):

13-0 Georgia  

13-0 Michigan (no bias, I swear)

13-0 FSU

12-1 Oregon