Expanding on the 247comp recruiting class calculator
First (maybe only) diary, but why not. I was curious.
*** Also, updated with the Eubanks news...***
So... I've been fiddling around with excel based on the available 247 composite data out there. We have a number of excellent targets and the 2016 class is far from closed. If attrition, gray-shirts, and expectations fall as expected, we could take up to 8 more recruits to get to the total of 30 expected in this class. To give credit, this info is all available on the class calculator at 247sports.com:
http://michigan.247sports.com/Season/2016-Football/Commits/Preview
As I understand, the following are still viable targets to land in Michigan (with corresponding 247compositive score)*:
Gary | 1.0000 |
Asiasi | 0.9628 |
Tagaloa | 0.9472 |
Murphy | 0.9065 |
|
|
Simmons | 0.8913 |
Mathis | 0.8901 |
Eubanks | 0.8843 |
Pie Young | 0.8789 |
Viramontes | 0.8765 |
Jones | 0.8745 |
Dublanko | 0.8696 |
|
|
Nate Johnson | 0.8618 |
Donald Stewart | 0.8568 |
Nordin | 0.8565 |
Dytarious Johnson | 0.8376 |
*We may be out for those in italics, really out of it is this.
I may have left off an option or two, but these should blanket the majority of our possibilities. I did leave off Elliott, I think he gone. Sad. He dominated at the All-Star game. I can't remember which, but I think I heard one of Metellus or Gil are a known (happy) gray-shirt ... so they were left off.
So, where does that leave us. Well, I made a cumulative chart using the information on the 247 class calculator. My goal was not to see our cumulative score. Others brighter than me have already noted we are unlikely to clear 300 points (even with Rashan Gary), so we aren't necessarily breaking any records here. However, what is our average recruit composite ranking? This isn't available on the calculator and is fun to mess around with.
I can't upload the excel sheet (or I would), but here is the chart with my best-case-scenario class inserted (bold = EE):
Gary | 1.0000 |
Bredeson | 0.9790 |
Peters | 0.9674 |
Long | 0.9658 |
Asiasi | 0.9628 |
Onwenu | 0.9549 |
Walker | 0.9498 |
Tagaloa | 0.9472 |
Crawford | 0.9426 |
Fuller | 0.9377 |
Hill | 0.9359 |
Mitchell | 0.9265 |
Hamilton | 0.9087 |
Murphy | 0.9065 |
Hawkins | 0.8997 |
Ron Johnson | 0.8987 |
Kemp | 0.8954 |
Bush | 0.8921 |
Evans | 0.8911 |
Eubanks | 0.8843 |
Hudson | 0.8819 |
McDoom | 0.8794 |
Mbem-Bosse | 0.8702 |
|
|
Nordin | 0.8565 |
Uche | 0.8559 |
Spanellis | 0.8543 |
Davis | 0.8543 |
McKeon | 0.8494 |
Dwumfour | 0.8454 |
Gil | 0.8429 |
***Allen instead of Eubanks:***
Total avg | 90.72533 |
Adj (top 20) | 93.2185 |
Adj (top 24) | 92.1475 |
Adj (top 26) | 91.63692 |
***EUBANKS In, Allen out:***
Total avg | 90.78767 |
Adj (top 20) | 93.2305 |
Adj (top 24) | 92.22542 |
Adj (top 26) | 91.70885 |
First off... that is a lot of names.
Secondly, there are some interesting things in there. For instance, I adjusted the rankings to see how our average varies depending on the total class size (ie just keeping the top 20, 24 etc). This is a simple average feature on excel (cell = sum(b1:b20)*100)
Alabama (the pinnacle of mathematical recruiting prowess), had 24 total recruits in the 2015 class with an average of 93.64... so we'd be close, but no cigar. Ohio, on the other hand, finished with the #7 ranked composite class with 26 total recruits and an average rating of 90.19 ... so yeah, we'd be competitive.
Below is the trend (top = with Allen, bottom with Eubanks). Unfortunately, did not have time to chart this against past teams or opponents. I'll leave that to the professionals after all is said and done.
Aside from that, this is just speculation. Just fun with charts a la Ross Perot in election season. The class may not reach this apex, but should still be excellent. Go blue and best of luck to all the young men either way.
Despite being fun to always play the best-case-scenario, the below may be a more likely final class:
Gary | 1 |
Bredeson | 0.979 |
Peters | 0.9674 |
Long | 0.9658 |
Onwenu | 0.9549 |
Walker | 0.9498 |
Crawford | 0.9426 |
Hill | 0.9359 |
Mitchell | 0.9265 |
Hamilton | 0.9087 |
Murphy | 0.9065 |
Hawkins | 0.8997 |
Ron Johnson | 0.8987 |
Kemp | 0.8954 |
Bush | 0.8921 |
Evans | 0.8911 |
Hudson | 0.8819 |
McDoom | 0.8794 |
Mbem-Bosse | 0.8702 |
|
|
Nate Johnson | 0.8618 |
Nordin | 0.8565 |
Uche | 0.8559 |
Spanellis | 0.8543 |
Davis | 0.8543 |
McKeon | 0.8494 |
Dwumfour | 0.8454 |
Gil | 0.8429 |
Dytarious Johnson | 0.8376 |
Donald Stewart | 0.8568 |
Total avg | 89.75367 |
Adj (top 20) | 92.056 |
Adj (top 24) | 90.99875 |
Adj (top 26) | 90.55154 |
Still beating 2015 Ohio in a National Championship year. I'll happily take that, plus a slight bump expected from the Eubanks addition. This doesn't mean we'll win actual football games, but it does mean we'll be competing from a talent standpoint. That's an advantage that Harbaugh didn't have at Stanford.
This is a good trend. Our top 20 is talented on an elite level and the next ten all have potential to be strong contributors at the next level. The comparison to Bama / OSU are more to say Michigan recruiting is strong like bull.
I'm aware this isn't anything earth shattering. But, it was informative and aided in my chronic procrastination.
January 28th, 2016 at 1:51 PM ^
Not that it really changes anything in the rest of your post, but Dublanko is not an option anymore.
January 28th, 2016 at 1:58 PM ^
Yeah... it's kind of all over the place. #crootin. I just lumped it all in.
I think Jones, Mathis and Camp are in the same boat.
January 29th, 2016 at 3:20 PM ^
Probably skewed the calculations a good bit. You listed a few guys on a couple of charts that are most likely not goint to land in this class. Realistically, I look for UM to finish somewhere around a healthy #5 - #6 in recruiting class. That's a damn sight better than last year, so exaggerations really aren't needed at this point.
January 28th, 2016 at 3:05 PM ^
What's funny is during the whole Rashad Weaver situation I almost posted this quote in defense of Harbaugh's recruiting tactics:
"You're it until you're dead or I find somebody better."
... meaning of course that Harbaugh has every right to accept a commit but then withdraw it if he finds somebody better.
And there you go posting a pic of Rico. :-)
Odd how things like that happen.
January 28th, 2016 at 3:18 PM ^
Service guarantees citizenship
January 28th, 2016 at 4:41 PM ^
This is the nerdiest of all nerds composite of data.........and I love it.
Well done sir!!
January 28th, 2016 at 6:27 PM ^
How do the numbers come out if you switch Eubanks for Allen on your last one?
January 28th, 2016 at 8:14 PM ^
January 28th, 2016 at 11:37 PM ^
I like this as a way to more evenly compare recruiting classes. Both adding up stars and taking the mean have problems that don't allow them to show the whole picture. But showing avg of top 20 and top 25 is a nice way to show quality while accounting for quantity.
January 29th, 2016 at 3:31 PM ^
and the average start ratings are similar between the two, but it appears that OSU's class holds alot of explosive talent. I watched a little bit of tape on Austin Mack and the Victor kid - Both look like freakishly good WR's, possibly to the point where (Mack in particular) may have warranted a 5th star. The RB they stole from Wisconsin after Walker flipped to us looks really good. His change of direction and acceleration is off the charts.
I'm pumped that Jim is going to land such a talented class. The only reservation I have is that the talent gap between us and the turds down south was glaring going into the offseason. OSU pulling in another talented class is doing us no favors, but I trust Harbaugh.... It's like those f*ckers are just reloading down there though. Oh, and it sounds as if they expect Weber to be 'the guy' in the backfield next year (shakes fist at sky).
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