Best: Living In The Moment

Listen, nobody at Michigan or Ohio State seemed overwhelmingly invested in the outcome of this weekend's games, beyond I guess the concern that somebody important might get injured. The standings may say otherwise, but The Game once again feels like a meeting of the two best teams in the conference, or at the very least the two best teams right now. Michigan, rather predictably, stubbed their toes twice this season, rendering this contest more of a spoiler affair than as a necessary stepping stone for either team to reach postseason glory.

After last weekend's drubbing of the Four Loko-drenched carcass of MSU, and "that's no moon" looming, I sort of expected the game against IU to follow the usual script, where Michigan looks out of sorts for long stretches and ultimately pulls it out in some stupidly dramatic manner. And even when it wasn't all that close in the end (like last year), there were enough negatives (a couple of injuries, Michigan's inability to defend crossing routes) that left everyone with a bad taste in his or her mouth.

And true to form, the start of this game brought back some of those weird feelings. Indiana scored on their first drive of the game, semi-methodically working their way down with the field with a combination of solid runs, dink-and-dunk passes, and the usual DPI bullshit I've largely come to expect from Big 10 referees on the road (yes Hill had a piece of his jersey; he was also running the guy's route for him and was 2 steps closer to the ball when Ramsey let it go). Michigan responded on their first drive with a TD (Ronnie Bell's first of the season) but otherwise looked out of sorts a bit, taking a couple of bad penalties and making a variety of mental mistakes. Indiana finished the first quarter with 8 first downs, over 100 yards of offense, and started with 2nd quarter finishing off their second TD drive of the game. At that point in the game, Indiana had the lead, at home, and was sitting at about 150 yards of total offense. Here's an artist rendering of how every Michigan fan was feeling at that moment.

But that's when the story took a dramatic turn. Michigan marched down the field to tie the game and...that was it for IU. Their next 7 drives featured 5 3-and-outs or turnovers and a total of 63 yards. And yes, being short both Penix and Philyor (and losing Scott and Fryfogle for stretches) certainly stymied their offense a bit, but they also broke out stuff that definitely felt like an MSU Memorial "We've Been Saving This For You" couple of drives. Once Michigan figured out what IU was trying to do (which appeared to be short passes and RPOs to loosen up shots downfield), that was about it for the Hoosiers. They finished the game with 321 total yards, but 119 of them came when they were down 39-14, including an absolutely majestic 13 play, 48-yard 8:07(!!!!) drive to end the game.

That last drive is the football equivalent of my kids taking 20 minutes to put their shoes and jackets on in the morning, with just enough forward progress every minute that I can't technically call them for stalling.

Michigan's offense had some early issues, as Patterson seemed a bit out of sync and blocking (including by the running backs) let defenders into the backfield with some frequency. Like against MSU, Michigan eschewed a balanced approach early on, looking to throw on 10 of their first 13 plays. It largely worked, even though a couple of Patterson's early completions were a bit wobbly (this first down throw to Haskins, for example, was an across-the-field, across-the-body bailout I wouldn't advise trying again). And as I'm sure will be brought up numerous times, he overthrew two surefire TDs on Michigan's second scoring drive, though he got some redemption on a great pitch and catch to DPJ.

Michigan then proceeded to alternate TDs and punts for their next 7 drives, throwing in a FG for good measure. Patterson found Nico Collins for all 3 of those TDs (amongst his 6 catches for 165 yards), ranging from a long catch-and-run to a couple of unstoppable jump balls. This was the type of throws Patterson (and to be fair the entire WR corps) struggled to execute earlier in the year, but they've seemingly all made leaps and bounds since the PSU game.

And after giving up 2 sacks on their second drive Michigan's offensive line kept Patterson clean and the offense humming. Much like they did against Maryland the running game chugged along without throwing too many wrinkles at IU in the blowout, averaging around 4.5 yards before they closed up shop and ran the clock down. Overall, the offense looks to be as dangerous as everyone sort of hoped going into the year, and while that might not mean a hell of a lot when they play OSU's #1 ranked defense we've also seen them do this against a handful of top-40 defenses, including 2 on the road. As the season has progressed and the competition stepped up, Michigan's offense has seemingly only improved.

So I'll be writing a couple more notes about this game but...that's about it. Michigan went on the road and beat one of the better Indiana teams in recent memory like a drum. I've always discounted the notion that Ohio State takes many notes on how to beat Michigan from earlier opponents, but unlike last year I can't imagine there was a ton IU did against Michigan that exposed some hitherto-unknown weaknesses in the Wolverines. And other than a scare or two with guys like Uche and Kemp, nobody left the game injured. Next week is going to be what it is, but this was a good win and should be enjoyed for what it is. And for once, not what it means in 7 days.

Best: Defensive Adjustments, Sped Up

Don Brown has a history of halftime adjustments, so I didn't assume IU's early offensive success was going to be sustainable for the whole game. But I assumed it was going to take at least a couple of series. Instead, Brown's defense started harassing IU's offense rather quickly and, frankly, most of the damage after that first drive was due to Ramsey being able to put some throws into tight windows (or in the case of one 3rd-and-20 conversion, having a metric ton of time). IU came into the game with the #15 offense in the country (basically the same as Wisconsin's and PSU's per SP+), and Michigan handled them to a degree that even the announcers stopped referencing the number of injuries IU suffered offensively.

On the day Michigan picked up 3 sacks, 4 TFLs, 1 pick, 5 more pass breakups, and 3 QB hits. Indiana's offense is designed to get the ball out quickly and in space, so to have even that level of disruption with limited opportunities was impressive. Josh Uche had perhaps the most impressive individual play on the day with a sack-stripe-recovery, but he also demolished a jet sweep and generally looked much more disruptive than the 105th-rated draft prospect. Lavert Hill, after a couple of early flags that ranged from dubious to "fine, I guess", helped shut down IU's downfield passing game. The "other" Hill also comes in for some praise, as Daxton picked up his first career interception with a diving catch. While it's usually not a good sign when your safety leads the team with 8 (!) solo (!!) tackles and he's making his first career start (!!!) and a true freshman (!!!!), he limited yards after catches (IU definitely picked on him as bit to start that game - 4 tackles on that first drive) and didn't let anything break big over him. Obviously the competition will be a step up next weekend, but he's acquitted himself well thus far.

I say this all the time, but Michigan's defense is just solid. It doesn't have the playmakers like past years, but it's performing about as well as those past units and feels more versatile; they'll be able to change-up coverages and blitz packages with limited personnel switches. While we've reached the part of this rivalry where nobody particularly cares how many points the defense gives up provided it's less than what OSU's does, the work Don Brown has done this year shouldn't be overlooked regardless of how the season ends.

Best: Late-Season QB Whisperer

Harbaugh has been referred to as a Quarterback Whisperer for some time, especially after he helped turn Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick into Pro Bowl-level signal callers. Early on at Michigan saw Jake Rudock, a guy passed over in Iowa, turn in one of the better statistical seasons in Michigan history by becoming a fiery throw god to end the season. Wilton Speight's 2016 season didn't end quite as well but it was still better than he'd looked before or since, and was definitely affected by a pretty subpar offensive line. 2017 featured 3 QBs getting hurt to varying degrees, including two season-ending injuries, so it's hard to read too much the position that year. And while 2018 ended with a thud against OSU and Florida, Shea Patterson had a sufficiently enticing season that the preseason darkhorse Heisman buzz wasn't completely misplaced. Still, lots of fans and media wondered if Harbaugh had lost his touch, his ability to identify weaknesses and improve the performance of his QB.

Well, 2019 is starting to look a lot like 2015, and if that's true it might be time to revisit the notion that Harbaugh has lost that component of player development. I've been more of a Shea Patterson apologist than most, but since the midway part of the year (basically after Iowa), he's thrown for 15 TDs, 2 picks (including the utterly meaningless one against IU), and added a couple of scores on the ground. I'm a little tired of the mea culpas about how "everyone" doubted Harbaugh when he said he thought the offense was about ready to break out (in part because I think they still have another gear in them), but a fully-operational Patterson has unlocked so much of the team.

Is he still missing some throws downfield? Absolutely, though I'd also add that SO DOES EVERYONE ELSE. Against Indiana he completed 63% of his passes for 5 TDs and consistently found open receivers at all levels of the defense. And the past couple of weeks he seems to have finally gotten on Gattis's wavelength when it comes to aggressiveness; against both MSU and IU he threw darts for TDs after turnovers deep in the opponent's territory. Despite the change in weather, Patterson is airing balls downfield with far greater frequency and accuracy, and the offense as a whole has blossomed for it. In this game he floated a number of balls to Collins, DPJ, Bell, and Sanistril downfield that he simply wasn't hitting earlier in the season.

Michigan will need Patterson to continue this renaissance next weekend, and it's probably come a bit too late for most, but he finally looks like the type of QB Michigan expected of him when he transferred, and credit needs to go to the offensive staff and Harbaugh, in part, for sticking with him and helping him reach this level.

Best/Worst: Enjoy It While You Can

Nico Collins finally had his breakout statistical game against IU, picking up 3 TDs as part of a 6-catch, 165-yard performance. He showcased the full repertoire, skying over defenders, blocking them out in the endzone, racing them to the pylon in the open field, and even picking up a DPI when IU's defenders gave up. It's been part of a larger effort these past 4-5 games to establish him as the unstoppable downfield threat we've all been hearing about. And this is how he should be used; not so much as a pure jump-ball guy (like how ND sometimes uses Claypool), but as part of a coherent offensive system that tests teams with guys like Bell, DPJ, Black and McKeon in addition to Collins. He poses a mismatch against any defender you can throw at him, and that's an athletic advantage Michigan has to take advantage of.

Sadly, my guess is this is the last season for Collins at Michigan. He's a prototypical NFL receiver, and while I could make a colorable argument for why guys like DPJ and Black need to return, it's hard to apply the same logic to Collins. It would obviously be great if he comes back, but if not hopefully these last couple of games serve as highlight reels for him.

Quick Hits

• Lavert Hill is a very physical cornerback, and in particular has a penchant for grabbing. He got caught early in the season doing it against Army and it's popped up since. It doesn't seem particularly egregious but he's been called for a number of penalties recently and I'm starting to wonder if his reputation is lending to some borderline calls on him recently. In particular, I thought his DPI was a bit dubious because while there was some jersey tugging, he was also running the receiver's route for him and had a solid step or so on the overthrown ball. Still, it was called and gave IU a drive-sustaining FD on their first TD. Hopefully that doesn't come back to bite Michigan against OSU, but we'll see.
• This seemed like a big game to ESPN and yet they missed a couple of plays/replays, including the 2-point McCaffrey conversion, and at some point reverted to just putting up graphics about how mediocre Harbaugh was as a coach in various ever-shifting criteria for excellence. I am sort of excited they aren't running next week's game.
• The referees had a couple of wonky calls early on, but toward the end seemed to settle down. Let's hope that wasn't a one-week aberration.
• Will Hart had a really rough day punting. Let's just hope he got it out of his system.

Next Week: OSU

So yeah, the stakes this year aren't what they were in 2016 or 2018 when a division title was on the line, but this will always feels like a season-defining game. OSU probably should have blown PSU out last weekend, and likely would have had they not turned the ball over three times, including two that led to quick scores. OSU basically tripled up PSU in yardage in the first half, and history says terrifying death balls don't inflict that many wounds to themselves in consecutive weeks. On the other hand, OSU really hasn't played ANYONE on the road this year; IU in week 3 is probably the toughest road contest they've had all year, and that Hoosier team had struggled to put away Ball St. and shortly thereafter gave up 40 to MSU. So...it'll be a bigger stage than they're used to.

At the same time, OSU has outscored everyone they've faced by a margin of 543-115, and most of that 115 came deep into garbage time. I thought they showed some resolve against PSU once the Nittany Lions cut into their lead, and there's nobody in college football as disruptive as Chase Young. Still...Michigan's offensive line has played very well recently and Gattis is used to game planning against elite defensive lines in the SEC. Patterson and co. will need to play out of their minds but I don't think there will be a schematic mismatch to the degree we saw last year. And at this point, I'm going to trust Don Brown to have some wrinkles against OSU to gum up Justin Fields, someone who has struggled at times when facing disciplined, talented defenses. Him and Dobbins are the linchpins of the offense, and it's unlikely Michigan will be able to stop them. But Michigan's offense is clicking right now and if this turns into a shootout, who knows?

My prediction? Michigan probably loses, but it'll be closer than people think. That probably sucks more than a blowout, but until Michigan wins one of these games it's foolish to believe they'll beat a team having an historically good season, home game or not. I do think it'll be a game entering the 4th quarter, and then who knows what can happen. And in the event Michigan does win, my hope is the TV crew cuts to the locker room to capture a scene like this.

Head Coach Will Healy and @CharlotteFTBL celebrating bowl eligibility for the first time. #ClubLit @NCGridiron #NCCFB pic.twitter.com/lNhtDyTtDj

— Brian Barnes (@NCGridironNews) November 24, 2019