Adv. Stats Schedule Rundown - Week 7 Results

Submitted by Ecky Pting on

So MSU may have won the game - I use the term "won" loosely in this context - but as the advanced statistical analyses continue to bear out, MSU STILL SUCKS! So, big deal, you think, they still beat us, and all hope is lost for a B1G Title and any prayer for CFBC invitation. Well, as Corso might say, "Not so fast, my friend!"  So without further adieu, here's this week's Advanced Stats Schedule Rundown:

U-M Adv. Stats Composite Schedule Rundown, Week 7 Results
Click to embiggen ---^

Interesting things to note:

  • So quite unremarkably (but I'll remark anyway) MSU would still by an underdog if the game were to be played again. Except, if it were in East Lansing, then Sparty would be a +0.5 point favorite on the FPI scale.  S&P+ still loves the beloved Maize'n'Blue. Thus, MSU still sucks, dumb-ass lucky winners that they may be.
  • U-M's position in the rankings improved from #3 to #2, maintaining it's hold on the #1 S&P+ Defense ranking, and sliding from #46 to #50 on Offense.
  • OSU is now a 2 point favorite on the FPI scale, but U-M is a 9 point favorite vs. OSU on the S&P+ scale.
  • Not readily apparent from the chart ... but Iowa remains the favorite to win out in the West, and will in all likelihood be 12-0 going into the B1G Championship game, so I'm including them as a 13th game, in which U-M would be favored should they be not un-lucky enough to make it there.

The bottom line is that U-M is in good position to win it's games between now and when OSU rolls into town, and even now, U-M is poised to make it a very competitive matchup.


Please refer to the week 6 diary for additional external sources & references, as well as how to interpret the color scheme if it's not completely intuitive for you.

Comments

LSAClassOf2000

October 19th, 2015 at 1:27 PM ^

I assumed this was the one that was to remain because it contained the complete analysis, from the look of things - if I made an error in iterpretation, please let me know so I can make amends ASAP. 

 

g_reaper3

October 19th, 2015 at 3:15 PM ^

Northwestern still has the #6 defense in SP after losing 38-0 and 40-10 back to back weeks?  I know we scored 14 on defense and special teams against them so maybe that is part of it but sure doesnt seem like a #6 defense.  Makes me wonder if the SP ranking is even worth looking at.  It has us favored by 17 in a rematch against MSU as well. 

Ecky Pting

October 19th, 2015 at 8:49 PM ^

S&P+ is opponent-adjusted, so simplistically, yielding 40 to the #12 Iowa offense is probably better than the 24 pt. deficit (on defense) to the #50 U-M offense. Also, keep in mind NU did not score in the second half, so garbage time kicked in late 3Q against Iowa ... and maybe halftime against UM?

alum96

October 19th, 2015 at 9:03 PM ^

They are still getting love for shutting down what is now a top 10 S&P offense of Stanford.

FEI will come out this week so I will be curious how they rate NW D.

All these rankings become better the longer the season goes.

Illinois at #7 on D also has be curious.