Hello, fan of an NFL team. MGoBlog excruciatingly scouts every Michigan play, and scores them to inform our coverage. Since mi atleta es su atleta now, here we share what we're sharing.

QUICKLY: Shoulda-been two-time Groza winner, best kicker in school history at a Special Teams U.

DRAFT POSITION VS PROJECTION: Round 3, Pick 36 (Resolution JC-2A pick), 99th overall to San Francisco, the highest kicker taken since 2016. He was clearly the top kicker in the draft.

NFL COMP: Jason Hanson. Automatic inside the 50, and range extends to about 59.

POSITIVES: The ball always goes through the uprights. Unflappable. Has done it on the biggest stage and all kinds of conditions.

NEGATIVES: Accuracy falls off from deep; might only be a 50% guy from 55+.

STATS:

Points Above Average is our house kicking stat based on FBS averages from each distance. For example college kickers since 2012 are about 97% on extra points, which are worth one point, ergo the kicker is credited for 3% of a point (IE +0.03 points) for making an XP, and charged a loss of 97% of a point (-0.97) for a miss. There's also a graduated distance bonus past 50 yards because most teams won't even attempt a kick at those distances.

Year	Long	29-	30-39	40-49	50+	Tot	XP	PAA
2018	48	3/3	6/6	1/1	0/1	10/11	5/5	+6.0
2019	43	3/3	2/4	1/1	0/1	6/9	18/18	-1.0
2020	40	0/0	0/2	1/2	0/0	1/4	9/9	-5.0
2021	52	6/6	13/13	3/5	1/1	23/25	56/56	+14.8
2022	59	9/10	10/10	7/8	3/7	29/35	60/60	+25.0
TOTALS		21/22	31/35	13/17	4/10	69/84	148/148	+39.8
PTS VS AVG		+2.3	+12.7	+7.9	+12.5	+39.8	+4.4	+39.8

Adding 40 points of value to a team over the course of a career is insane. Adding 25 points above average in a single season is even more incredible. Moody's 2021 and 2022 seasons are the highest PAAs we have on record at Michigan—the next best was 2012 Brendan Gibbons at +13, and 2019 Quinn Nordin at 6.6. His career dwarfs that of any other candidate.

[After THE JUMP: The Pax Specialistica.]

--------------------------

WHAT'S HIS STORY? Michigan is systemically advantaged when it comes to kicker recruiting. Brandon Kornblue, who runs one of the three camps/sites that rate specialists, is an alum. Non-scholarship prospects are attracted by the degree. They're in a state that happens to produce an inexplicably high amount of talent for the position. All of these factors came together in the late 2010s to produce the most promising kicking prospect to come out of high school in decades, one that took reversing a private jet-rental video commitment to Penn State and an infamous Harbaugh sleepover* to bring the recruit to Michigan.

So it was weird, especially given that Quinn Nordin redshirted in 2016, that Michigan pursued a kicker for their 2018 class. In fact Signing Day 2018 came and went without our site even realizing that Moody was converted from a grayshirt to a scholarship, though the proprietor of the blog Touch the Banner had tried to tell us in January.

The true freshman debuted as Michigan's kickoff man in the 2018 opener, putting them into the endzone against a stiff wind. Moody also dropped one near the goal line that was fielded and returned to the 12, a gambit we called "Foug'ing" after the graduated kickoff specialist who excelled at getting returners to turn down fair catches.

Even weirder was when Moody had to replace Nordin against Indiana—one week before Ohio State—then Wally Pipped him, setting a school record with six (of six) field goals against Indiana. Harbaugh:

He learned pregame that it looked like he had to get ready. And he was good. There’s no facial expression change, no body language change. Just went about his business of getting ready. And then same when he was in there kicking. He was making them. No expression. Cool customer.

In 2019-'20 they worked out a system where the kickers switched off every attempt, though Moody only took one from 50+ to big-leg Nordin's four. The system did not seem to benefit either, and Nordin went pro after a short 2020 in which they both struggled.

This is when Jake Moody became "Money" Moody. In 2021 he made 23/25 attempts, all but six of those from beyond 30 yards, and extended his range to 52 yards, winning the Groza as part of the #1 Special Teams unit in the country. He also began a tradition of head-butting his holder, then-5th year senior Brad Robbins.

Then to our surprise and delight both Moody and Robbins returned for his COVID year. Moody performed even better, though they wouldn't give him a second Groza for it. Those who watched the kicking were more impressed than those who looked at stats. These were outdoor kicks, many in hostile environments and Big Ten conditions (e.g. they let Rutgers blast you with strobe lights and a train horn right up until the snap). Moody's final kick at Michigan Stadium was a 35-yard game-winner versus Illinois to cap a 4/4 day in a cold, wet wind. Moody graduated the all-time leading scorer in University of Michigan history (355), the leading single-season scorer (147), and the career and season records for most field goals, and most from 40+ and 50+, plus the program record for longest, a 59-yard blast against TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. He never missed in 148 extra point tries. Moody then scored all of the points for his team in the Pro Bowl.

* [The key point that creepers miss about this is the recruit's house was like Michigan's helmet: it has has wings.]

WHAT OTHERS SAY:

Pro Football Network ranked Moody the top kicking prospect, and one of two specialists (with Rutgers's weird dude Adam Korsak) worth drafting this cycle.

He’s a ball-striking sensation, a special-teams wonder. … Moody’s magic last season was reminiscent of his electric freshman campaign, and after a shaky start to the season, his stock has soared with consistent ball-striking success and clutch performances for the Wolverines in their biggest games.

The Michigan kicker finished his final college campaign by nailing all 60 of his extra-point attempts and compiling an 82.9 completion percentage on field goals that felt unlikely early in the year. Moody’s 59-yard long was beaten only by Stanford’s Joshua Karty. Although Moody converted less than 50% of his 50+ yard attempts this fall, the Michigan kicker has shown throughout his college and high school career that he has the leg strength and clutch gene to come up big when the game is on the line.

NFL.com's Lance Zierlein underrated the level of consistency.

Moody has just two seasons as a full-time kicker but he was a consistent performer who could pull the team to wins when the offense sputtered. He’s very reliable on kicks shorter than 40 yards but has been less consistent from longer distances. He’s capable on kickoffs and strikes the ball with consistency, so he should get a shot a chance to compete for a roster spot in camp.

Zierlein says Moody "doesn't have a booming leg," citing Moody's 67% rate from 40+ (average distance for those attempts was 47.4, so that might be unfair) and "has a tendency to pull kicks occasionally from the right hash."

The 49ers were as impressed with the story as the kicking.

“I think you put this much work in to make the roster as competitive as we have, you’re going to be in a lot of close games and kickers matter,” Lynch said.

Moody's Pro Day demonstrated how far he'd come over the course of his career.

It’s not often that a kicker is a featured performer at a major college pro day. Not every kicker is Michigan’s Jake Moody.

The Wolverines kicker stole the show at the team’s indoor training facility on Friday morning. Moody nailed 12 of his 13 official attempts on the day, including a successful 63-yarder. He missed from 57.

NFL Draft Blitz found every one of Moody's measurables tops among kickers at the combine, naming him #1 at the position with a bullet.

OUR SCHEME/BEST SCHEME: A kicker.

SUMMARY AND PROJECTION

Moody is a much better kicker today than the one who arrived at Michigan in 2018 and took half of Quinn Nordin's job. He's a much better kicker today than the one who won the Groza for his accuracy in 2021. The leg has grown more powerful. The bend on his kicks has the smoothness of a professional bowler's strike. The kicks don't just go through the uprights; they travel there in an efficient arc no matter the conditions or game state.

NFL teams don't have to replace their kickers very often, so one that can add 25 points of value over your average college kicker in the course of a season is probably a just-above-average pro. The trick when drafting a kicker however is that steadiness. Knowing you're going to convert anything from inside the 33 yard line is the main thing; having the ability to add three points at then end of a half from the 40 yard line is where you start adding value over average.

Taking Moody's trajectory into account, he's exactly the kind of kicker you can spend a draft pick on. I know I've said this twice already (for DJ Turner and Mazi Smith) but this is a high floor, high ceiling guy. At the very worst your kicking is something you don't have to worry about. And there are a lot of indicators that 4th down decision-making from the 30 to the 40 yard line is going to shift to trusting the kicker's leg once he's established it. I do believe in positional draft value, and I'm not sure why the 49ers jumped at 99 when they had the 101st pick, but I guess they identified a few other teams (Packers mostly) looking for kicking help and there was only one sure thing in the draft.