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Future Hoops Originals: Frankie Collins Offense Comment Count

Matt EM November 26th, 2020 at 10:15 AM

I made several trips to the Phoenix area over the last month to get a detailed look at 2021 signee Frankie Collins. Suiting up for Air Nado (club name for Coronado HS in Las Vegas) at the Border League and a one-off versus Sierra Canyon (CA). This was a great opportunity to see how Collins stacked up versus some of the best high school competition in the country.

At the Border League event in late October, Air Nado squared off against Minnehaha Academy (MN) and Prolific Prep (NV). Minnehaha debuted at number 17 in the national pre-season rankings and featured 5-star Chet Holmgren, 4-star Prince Aligbe Word and 3-star Hercy Miller. Prolific is the 5th ranked team in the nation with 2021 Oregon commit Nate Bittle, 2021 Stanford commit Isael Silva, 4-star Kamari Lands, 4-star Mouhamed Gueye and 3-star Jordan Pope. 

The early November matchup against number 20 Sierra Canyon was an absolute thriller. SC came in as one of the most talented teams in the nation with 5-star Amari Bailey, 4-star Chance Westry, 4-star Bronny James, 3-star Shy Odom and 3-star Max Allen.

[Hit THE JUMP for the full breakdown.]

Transition Playmaking

This is most polished facet of Collins' game, and one that will make the Wolverines electric in transition with Frankie leading the charge. The combination of spatial awareness, accuracy, touch and body control makes him an elite passer in space and Michigan is going to get easy baskets because of it.

While his teammates didn't do him any favors in terms of finishing potential assists, the possession starting at the :56 mark of the clip below really demonstrates the aforementioned combination. Collins nearly drops 4-star Bronny James with a behind-the-back dribble, attacks the rim and hits 3-star Shy Odom with a euro-step, before finding his trailing big with an incredible behind-the-back pass in traffic while being sandwiched between two bigger/longer defenders. That level of playmaking is what we label as "gifted" in the evaluation industry because it cannot be coached. 

The very next possession in the clip below is further evidence of Frankie being a gifted playmaker. His freshman teammate delivers a late pass to Collins that places him in a no-win situation. Frankie doesn't have the angle to finish off the glass with the right hand and finds himself nearly behind the backboard with two defenders crowding him. After elevating, he contorts his body mid-air, shifts the ball from right to left hand and drops a precision dumpoff with the off-hand. Again, this is special stuff that is just natural ability to make something out of nothing. 

An often overlooked passing attribute is the ability to dish out accurate one-hand passes with a live dribble, and Frankie thrives in that regard. At the :34 second mark in the clip below, Collins collapses the defense with dribble penetration and times up a perfect one-hand bounce pass with the off-hand. He does the same at the :50 mark, this time with the right hand. In a sport where grabbing the ball with two hands before delivering a pass may be the difference between your teammate getting an open shot and a turnover, I'm happy he has this weapon at his disposal. 

The rest of the passes may not be as eye-popping, but they all have a few things in common. Accuracy, appropriate touch and every one of the passes places the team in an advantageous position to score the basketball. Collins does a great job of moving the ball with hit-aheads to shooters and over the top of the defense. He effortlessly finds shooters in stride while placing the ball directly in the shooting pocket, which leads to a shot that is in rhythm. For streaking bigs, he perfectly places the ball just out of reach of scrambling defenders while giving his bigs enough real estate to catch and finish.

Frankie's transition playmaking is nearly flawless for a senior in high school. He literally had one poor pass in the three games I viewed live, and that pass was the correct decision that wasn't executed properly. He projects to be an electric playmaker in the open court that both teammates and fans will love. Should be an entertaining brand of basketball starting in 2021 considering the athleticism on the roster with Moussa Diabate, Zeb Jackson, Isaiah Barnes and Kobe Bufkin among others. 

Transition Finishing

You typically don't associate transition finishing with a point guard that stands around 5'11, but Frankie Collins isn't your normal 5'11 floor general. Frankie is probably one of the 20-25 best run and jump leapers I've seen in the last 5 years at the high school level. His vertical is undoubtedly 40+ inches and this allows him to finish in a way that doesn't seem possible for someone of his size. I've taken the liberty of slowing down a few plays in the clip below, so that we can all gain a greater appreciation for the type of athlete coming to Ann Arbor. 

The first two possessions in the clip below provide a great visual of that explosion. He takes off at least 10 feet from the basket on both plays, drops off bigger defenders at the 8th floor before taking the elevator to the 10th floor and finishing. The elevation and body control are nothing short of incredible. 

While he wasn't able to convert the dunk over seven-footer Chet Holmgren in the third possession of the clip, the fact that he was able to elevate over him says a lot. Keep in mind Chet blocked 9 shots that game. To say it was challenging for Air Nado to score at the rim would be an understatement. Collins was the sole player to get the requisite elevation and it is almost unfathomable that he accomplished this at 5'11. 

The play starting at the 1:02 mark is probably the most impressive play despite the fact that it didn't result in points. Hitting an elite athlete in 4-star Mo Gueye with a behind-the-back wrap around euro is the stuff typically reserved for elite players at the NBA level. And while I can't say this with any certainty, I believe the only thing that prevented Frankie from converting that left-hand layup is hand size. That caliber of athleticism, timing and spatial awareness is video game stuff. 

Collins is a physically imposing transition finisher that embraces contact and isn't afraid of potential shotblockers at all. Frankie finishes in the open court like an athletic 6'6 wing and he's going to have several moments that have Crisler rocking. 

Half-Court Playmaking

Want to make a small distinction here - this portion examines non ballscreen action (more on that later). The same qualities we saw in transition also manifest against a set defense. The outstanding vision/spatial awareness is still present in tandem with accurate passes. 

His ability to navigate in traffic and find passing windows is really impressive. The defense is never able to speed him up, and he's just extremely comfortable with the ball in his hands at all times. Collins consistently forces a help defender by breaking down the opposition with change of direction/speed dribbles before finding teammates on dumpoffs and kickouts.

Not much to add here that wasn't covered in the transition playmaking section. Frankie has every pass in his arsenal and he's going to make life easy for his teammates. 

Ballscreen Action

During my live viewing of Collins, I noticed he has a tendency to reject screens. He's generally productive when he does this because it allows him to get a head full of steam in a straight line where he can take full advantage of his leaping ability. Frankie was able to get a step on his primary defender and draw a foul at the rim on nearly every possession where he elected to reject the screen.

The results were mixed when he did utilize the screen. The clip below is very detailed and I slowed down relevant portions so you can see this from the view of an evaluator and/or coach. I'm not going to go very deep here, as this could get very long if I were to examine Collins against each type of ballscreen defense. The film and notes toward the bottom of the screen should prove very helpful. 

In general, I'll say that Frankie probably needs to turn the corner on screens with more speed/purpose. As mentioned above, the defense isn't able to speed him up and he plays at his own pace. In ballscreen action though, I do wish he played with more pace and attacked the rim immediately more often. This would likely draw a secondary defender where he can use his outstanding vision/passing.

Half-Court Finishing

It is no surprise that Frankie excels as a finisher versus a set defense when he gets a running start in a straight line. His leaping ability is such that he can elevate over bigs with elite size/length in those scernarios.

When forced to change direction or slow down in the paint, Collins can still convert over bigs with average size/length, but struggles a bit against elite size/length. In those situations, he just doesn't have the requisite explosion to elevate over bigs that have a size advantage by 9-12 inches. 

The good thing is that Frankie flashed some promise as hop-step jumper that changes direction in the air to avoid shotblockers. The last two possessions in the clip below are probably what it will take for him to finish against lengthier bigs with athleticism. To use a football analogy, Collins makes a jump-cut at the 1:38 mark below that allows him to get a relatively good look at the rim against an outstretched Chet Holmgren. 

Frankie projects to draw a reasonable amount of fouls, as he's a two-leg jumper that attacks the paint with high volume. This means he's likely to get into the chest of bigs and will get his fair share of FT attempts. He'll have some impressive finishes that are heavily contested and will throw down a few as well. 

Pull-Up Jumper

The biggest question surrounding Michigan's point guard of the future centers around his ability to knock down perimeter shots. I'm not going to fabricate and project Collins as a Trey Burke level pull-up shooter, but I don't necessarily think he's a complete non-threat either.

As you can see on the very first possession in the clip below, I was able to identify the mechanical issue/unnecessary motion in Frankie's shot. He starts off with his elbow tucked in, but then cocks it outward as he progresses upward through his shooting motion. It's not something that is extreme, but it is an issue nevertheless. I think that is one of the more correctable mechanical issues in relation to swing-shot mechanics (think Zak Irvin, Lonzo Ball) that involve a shooter dipping the ball below the waist and across the body from right to left.

Even accounting for that, Frankie flashes some ability to connect on triples off the bounce. His misses aren't all that bad to be completely candid. He generally misses back heel or front him, which is preferable to missing wide right or left. 

It is encouraging that Collins attempts threes against drop coverage in ballscreen action. Attempting the shot is nearly as critical as the make/miss result. If the defense feels no threat of a pull-up jumper in ballscreen action, the perimeter defender will simply go under and spacing will be completely compromised. As great as Xavier Simpson was at Michigan, this was an issue at times. Frankie has some potential in that regard and while I don't think he's ever going to be a guy shooting in the high 30s from distance, he may be able to knock down those type of looks at a high enough clip to keep opposing defenses honest. 

Collins isn't going to be a high volume pull-up guard that attempts contested jumpers off the bounce. He doesn't have great size/length and doesn't really get enough lift to overcome that limitation. But he doesn't have to be considering his playmaking ability and surrounding talent. Frankie just needs to be respectable against drop coverage to keep the defense honest. Shooting in the low to mid 30s from distance will fully unlock his playmaking ability for others. If he can make the slight adjustment in his mechanics, I think he's closer to being a respectable shooter than most people realize. 

Free Throws

Frankie went 10/13 from the charity stripe and was solid. `Needs to get more knee bend and the elbow issue identified above is present here as well. Overall though, he appears to be a dependable FT shooter that should convert at a solid level when fouled. 

Isolation

With the talent coming to Michigan in 2021, Collins probably isn't going to be a high volume isolation option in the half court. That said, he does have some abilities to a be a late clock creator that takes advantage of certain matchups, particularly if his primary defender is a smaller guard.

Frankie has some shiftiness to his game and creates space off the bounce by changing direction and speed with a live dribble. He's going to get where he wants with the ball against most B10 guards because of that. Beyond that though, he is extremely strong for a smaller guard and has no problem bullying defenders to the rim. The shiftiness plus strength projects to a player that can generate fouls and free throws when set actions don't produce good looks.

Collins was actually used as a post-option on a few possessions and I am intrigued by that ability. The possession at the 1:17 mark below is a Horns set where Frankie ducks in from the wing, turns baseline and elevates over the defense for a left-hand finish. This is notable, because he posted up Stanford signee and 4-star guard Isael Silva, who goes a legit 6'3/190. Getting Frankie the ball in those spots means that helpside bigs can't really load up on him because help defense/double teaming will automatically result in an easy layup as Collins will easily locate teammates on cuts/dumpoffs/kickouts. 

Comments

remdog

November 26th, 2020 at 10:27 AM ^

Thanks for an interesting writeup, Matt!  Collins seems like an exciting, high-ceiling player!  Hopefully, he can contribute early since we will have so much attrition from graduation this year.  We will need his entire class ready to contribute right away.

njvictor

November 26th, 2020 at 11:04 AM ^

Super excited for Collins and great analysis, Matt. If his jump shot from 3 or from 15-20 ft can become even somewhat respectable, he's really going to open up the floor for himself and his teammates. 

Any news on a final 2021 guy potentially joining the class?

Jordan2323

November 26th, 2020 at 11:06 AM ^

Matt, who would you compare his game to?

Do you see Howard recruiting taller pg's in the future that could play the 1 and 2, maybe the 3? I know you talked about a Howard team physically dominating you going forward. Most of the shorter pg's won't have Collins athleticism and leaping ability. 

Basketballschoolnow

November 27th, 2020 at 12:36 AM ^

Not sure what to make of this.  He is obviously a tremendous athlete.  But in the first clip, his passes mostly did not lead to baskets, but that is not on him--he can't make the pass AND the shot.  However, in the second clip of his transition attacks on the hoop, again, the spectacular leaping ability and athleticism are obvious, but...he mostly does not finish them with a hoop!  If his jump shot is also in question, I wonder if he can score at the college level.  Xavier Simpson with hops, but still not as effective a finisher?

MGoMort

November 27th, 2020 at 11:42 AM ^

Not that it would happen, but "Special Assistant Shooting Consultant John Beilein" would be such an incredible addition to the UM staff for a guy like Collins. We can dream...