APR: Schools Potentially In Trouble Next Year

Brian March 31st, 2010 at 1:06 PM

A glimpse into the future: here's a table of schools that would fall under the 925 line if we just look at the last three years of data. These schools could be subject to contemporaneous penalties if they lose a kid because he is ineligible unless they improve this year.

Columns are mostly self explanatory. APR XX = single-year APR. SS XX = squad size for a particular year. 09 APR so far is a combination of the APR scores weighted by the squad sizes, so UAB's 756 counts more than their 931 because the 756 saw 97 players and the 931 just 80. I think I might be slightly off on the weightings here because squad size may not directly correspond with points available, but these should be close.

The last column is the score the school needs to break to get out of the contemporaneous penalties zone. Obviously, the top four teams are not going to climb out in one year. BCS teams have been bolded.

School	Conf.	APR	APR 08	SS 08	APR 07	SS 07	APR 06	SS 06	09 APR SO FAR	SCORE NEEDED
UAB	CUSA	875	931	80	756	97	908	93	860	1119
Florida International	Sun Belt	904	965	81	891	77	822	90	890	1030
San Jose State University	WAC	888	952	78	876	82	853	86	892	1024
Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	906	886	87	934	87	869	86	896	1011
Washington State University	Pac-10	918	922	84	874	88	921	90	906	983
University of Mississippi	SEC	910	891	85	945	76	890	85	907	978
University of Idaho	WAC	905	938	77	880	87	911	90	909	974
New Mexico State University	WAC	905	900	95	920	87	913	89	911	968
University at Buffalo	MAC	908	921	80	933	81	884	86	912	964
University of Minnesota	Big Ten	915	887	89	935	88	924	86	915	955
University of Colorado	Big 12	929	935	90	893	90	918	94	915	954
University of North Texas	Sun Belt	911	914	87	917	87	924	85	918	945
University of South Florida	Big East	909	938	85	937	85	879	79	919	943
Temple University	MAC	891	960	90	893	91	910	88	921	937
Florida Atlantic University	Sun Belt	913	935	85	918	77	911	85	921	936
University of Arkansas	SEC	927	918	91	937	91	910	96	921	936
SDSU	MWC	914	943	87	894	87	929	87	922	934
University of Akron	MAC	926	948	90	906	90	912	89	922	934
Florida State University	ACC	932	871	91	960	83	938	94	922	934
Bowling Green	MAC	920	912	91	931	95	923	91	922	934
UNLV	MWC	929	960	84	922	95	889	95	922	933

Ole Miss is the most relevant team in the danger zone, and it looks doubtful they will be able to avoid a small penalty or two. Florida State's ugly 871 will be an anchor for a few years but if they bounce back with numbers similar to their record to date it won't be a serious problem. And Tim Brewster's gift to whoever replaces him in two years is going to be that 887.

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