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APR: Schools Potentially In Trouble Next Year
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A glimpse into the future: here's a table of schools that would fall under the 925 line if we just look at the last three years of data. These schools could be subject to contemporaneous penalties if they lose a kid because he is ineligible unless they improve this year.
Columns are mostly self explanatory. APR XX = single-year APR. SS XX = squad size for a particular year. 09 APR so far is a combination of the APR scores weighted by the squad sizes, so UAB's 756 counts more than their 931 because the 756 saw 97 players and the 931 just 80. I think I might be slightly off on the weightings here because squad size may not directly correspond with points available, but these should be close.
The last column is the score the school needs to break to get out of the contemporaneous penalties zone. Obviously, the top four teams are not going to climb out in one year. BCS teams have been bolded.
| School | Conf. | APR | APR 08 | SS 08 | APR 07 | SS 07 | APR 06 | SS 06 | 09 APR SO FAR |
SCORE NEEDED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAB | CUSA | 875 | 931 | 80 | 756 | 97 | 908 | 93 | 860 | 1119 |
| Florida International | Sun Belt | 904 | 965 | 81 | 891 | 77 | 822 | 90 | 890 | 1030 |
| San Jose State University | WAC | 888 | 952 | 78 | 876 | 82 | 853 | 86 | 892 | 1024 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Sun Belt | 906 | 886 | 87 | 934 | 87 | 869 | 86 | 896 | 1011 |
| Washington State University | Pac-10 | 918 | 922 | 84 | 874 | 88 | 921 | 90 | 906 | 983 |
| University of Mississippi | SEC | 910 | 891 | 85 | 945 | 76 | 890 | 85 | 907 | 978 |
| University of Idaho | WAC | 905 | 938 | 77 | 880 | 87 | 911 | 90 | 909 | 974 |
| New Mexico State University | WAC | 905 | 900 | 95 | 920 | 87 | 913 | 89 | 911 | 968 |
| University at Buffalo | MAC | 908 | 921 | 80 | 933 | 81 | 884 | 86 | 912 | 964 |
| University of Minnesota | Big Ten | 915 | 887 | 89 | 935 | 88 | 924 | 86 | 915 | 955 |
| University of Colorado | Big 12 | 929 | 935 | 90 | 893 | 90 | 918 | 94 | 915 | 954 |
| University of North Texas | Sun Belt | 911 | 914 | 87 | 917 | 87 | 924 | 85 | 918 | 945 |
| University of South Florida | Big East | 909 | 938 | 85 | 937 | 85 | 879 | 79 | 919 | 943 |
| Temple University | MAC | 891 | 960 | 90 | 893 | 91 | 910 | 88 | 921 | 937 |
| Florida Atlantic University | Sun Belt | 913 | 935 | 85 | 918 | 77 | 911 | 85 | 921 | 936 |
| University of Arkansas | SEC | 927 | 918 | 91 | 937 | 91 | 910 | 96 | 921 | 936 |
| SDSU | MWC | 914 | 943 | 87 | 894 | 87 | 929 | 87 | 922 | 934 |
| University of Akron | MAC | 926 | 948 | 90 | 906 | 90 | 912 | 89 | 922 | 934 |
| Florida State University | ACC | 932 | 871 | 91 | 960 | 83 | 938 | 94 | 922 | 934 |
| Bowling Green | MAC | 920 | 912 | 91 | 931 | 95 | 923 | 91 | 922 | 934 |
| UNLV | MWC | 929 | 960 | 84 | 922 | 95 | 889 | 95 | 922 | 933 |
Ole Miss is the most relevant team in the danger zone, and it looks doubtful they will be able to avoid a small penalty or two. Florida State's ugly 871 will be an anchor for a few years but if they bounce back with numbers similar to their record to date it won't be a serious problem. And Tim Brewster's gift to whoever replaces him in two years is going to be that 887.
March 31st, 2010 at 1:24 PM | 
Looking for unusual RPI problems
Looking for unusual RPI problems
March 31st, 2010 at 1:43 PM |
If a player graduates, there
If a player graduates, there
If a player graduates, there is no APR penalty, unless the NCAA is retarded.
On second thought, there might be a penalty.
March 31st, 2010 at 1:50 PM |
That's not entirely true. If
That's not entirely true. If
That's not entirely true. If a player transfers but graduates elsewhere, there is a penalty. That's why I question it. So I don't doubt the NCAA's incompetence, but I wasn't sure if being at the same school mattered.
Some coaches have argued that APR should be measured over 6 years instead of 4, claiming that the average graduate now goes 5.3 years (I haven't seen numbers to back that claim up), but it makes me think that if they graduate at the school in less than 4 years, they wouldn't count against the number as if it were 6 years, you'd have guys falling off. This assumes the coach meant keeping the status quo.
March 31st, 2010 at 2:04 PM |
Guys leaving the school to
Guys leaving the school to
Guys leaving the school to graduate elsewhere have chosen to get the F out of the program, for whatever reason.
Guys who leave in fewer than four years because they graduate early are taking off because they've exceeded academic expectations. Not that the NCAA's decisions ever make sense, but it seems counter intuitive to punish a school due to academic failure because a player has gone above and beyond academically.
March 31st, 2010 at 3:35 PM |
A player that graduates gets
A player that graduates gets
March 31st, 2010 at 9:05 PM |
I think their claim
I think their claim
is a load of crap, at least with respect to the overall student population. Looking at what I saw across the Big Ten, somewhere between 1% and 4% of a class will need that sixth year to graduate (like me - I was lazy). Even the weaker schools give out degrees to about two-thirds of a class in five years, and the stronger ones are closer to 85 or 90 percent.
March 31st, 2010 at 9:35 PM |
I'm pretty sure they include
I'm pretty sure they include
I'm pretty sure they include part time student who work full time.
March 31st, 2010 at 1:55 PM |
Further questioning: how many
Further questioning: how many
Further questioning: how many of these teams below the threshold were punished via the NCAA last year? And by punished I mean more than a warning letter?
(Sigh... after writing this last question, I realized I've been writing a research paper the last three days and I've been forced to question every source with every form of skepticism... I'll stop now.)
March 31st, 2010 at 3:27 PM |
Ole Miss
Ole Miss
How in the world did they end up with a APR problem? Didn't they sign like 37 kids a couple years ago. You wouldn't think they would have a numbers problem.
April 1st, 2010 at 11:38 AM |
I should know this
I should know this
Do they look at the overall graduation rate for the school? Ole Miss sees less than 60% of its overall student body graduating in four years. How much better should one expect the football program to do?
Candace: No... That why they make smart word box for tell monkey hard brain-hurty things.
Phineas: Removing prepositions makes it more condescending.
April 1st, 2010 at 1:10 PM |
According to the NCAA...
According to the NCAA...
There is no squad size adjustment if there are 4 years of APR reporting.
The score is a percentage x 100 of students that are both enrolled and academically eligible. Each student can score 2 points per reporting period. One for each criteria.
The NCAA cutoff is 925 (92.5%) of all possible points. This correlates with a 60% graduation rate. 900 score correlates with a 40% graduation rate.
If an institution is under the cutoff, penalties get assessed on "0-for-2" students. Those that both leave and would not be academically eligible. The institution, loses the remainder of that kid's scholarship. They don't get penalized (except by score) for those that leave, but would be academically eligible (e.g. Mr. Rolle at FSU). There's also a 10% cap on total scholarship losses per team, rounded up.
There's more sanctions possible for habitual offenders, but this is the immediate situation.
Did Florida State lose points for losing a Rhodes Scholar? In a more general sense, do teams lose points for losing a player that graduates in less than 4 years?
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