Once upon a Beilein Michigan was a good bet for Barnes [Future150]

2021 Hoops Recruiting Primer Part II: Wings Comment Count

Matt EM April 30th, 2020 at 4:02 PM

Juwan has turned his attention to 2021 recruiting, and we’re doing the same. Part I: Guards was yesterday. Today we do the Wings.

Again, my positional distinctions:

  • Guard—moves well enough to defend the perimeter; generally a competent ballhandler/shot creator in a half-court setting; ideally a competent shooter, but not necessarily
  • Wing—has adequate size/length to defend the wing; ideally a competent shooter or plus defender; ideally a secondary shot creator that can attack a closeout at minimum
  • Big—has adequate size/length to protect the rim and/or rebound and/or not get bullied by traditional bigs in the B10; can ideally finish as a roll-man

PART II: Wings

It is safe to assume Michigan will take two wings based on the information we have now. Livers will be gone to graduation and perhaps Franz pursues professional options if he can find his perimeter shooting touch. Cole Bejama is the wildcard here. There have been rumors swirling that he is weighing a potential transfer, and if that comes to fruition we may be looking at 3 incoming wings for the 2021 class.

Jonathan Kuminga

  • Height/Wingspan/Weight: 6’8/6’11/220
  • High School/AAU: The Patrick School (NJ)/New York Lightning (EYBL)
  • Offer Date: N/A
  • Offers: Down to Final 10 of Duke, Kentucky, Memphis, Texas Tech, Michigan, Florida State, Georgia, Maryland, Auburn and Washington
  • End of Summer Ranking Projection: 5star/top 5 overall regardless of class

Scouting: A physical specimen with freakish athleticism and the skillset to do whatever he wants on a basketball court. Simply put, Kuminga is a future lottery pick that will likely be a heavy rotational player in the NBA at some point very soon. Getting into heavy detail about his game is not worth your time here, Michigan’s chances don’t justify me teasing you any more than necessary.

Where Does Michigan Stand: Kuminga included the Wolverines in his top 10 back in November and will release his top 5 soon. It has been strongly suggested that he will reclassify to the 2020 class. With recent developments, Kuminga will likely be a prime target for the G League path. In any event, he’s not coming to Ann Arbor barring a miracle.

[Hit THE JUMP for more realistic options and a few prospects I’d like to see the staff target]

Patrick Baldwin

  • Height/Wingspan/Weight: 6’9/7’0/210
  • High School/AAU: Hamilton HS (WI)/Phenom U (EYBL)
  • Offer Date: June 18, 2019
  • Offers: Every blueblood in the country and over 20 others
  • End of Summer Ranking Projection: 5star/top 10 overall

Scouting: Jumbo wing with an outstanding stroke from distance and a true matchup problem in college. He’s not an explosive athlete, but doesn’t need to be at the college level with his combination of size/length and shooting. Developing handle, flashed the ability to hit pull-ups last Summer. Solid vision in transition, his size allows him to see over the defense and survey the court. Projects as mostly a catch and shoot wing, but the threat of his jumpshot will allow him to attack closeouts off the bounce. Will likely be used in the post against smaller defenders when switched on to him, as he likely has the agility + handle to blow by traditional bigs. Likely one and done prospect, and perhaps G League material.

Where Does Michigan Stand: His father, Patrick Baldwin Sr. is the head coach at Milwaukee. Both Mom and Dad are Northwestern alums. Has taken unofficial visits to Duke, Northwestern, UNC and Milwaukee per this interview with Rivals this week. Won’t release a top group per the same piece. Duke holds 100% of the 247 crystal balls and 100% of the Rivals’ future forecast. Extreme longshot for Michigan, with Duke the likely landing spot and the G League option available.

Max Christie

  • Height/Wingspan/Weight: 6’5/NA/175
  • High School/AAU: Rolling Meadows HS (VA)/Illinois Wolves (Under Armour)
  • Offer Date: June 18, 2019
  • Offers: Duke, Michigan State, Ohio State, Villanova, Stanford, Virginia, Northwestern and over 15 others
  • End of Summer Ranking Projection: 5star/top 25 overall

Scouting: Good positional size and appears to have nice length despite lack of reported wingspan. Good shot mechanics, nice arch/rotation on his jumper, shot better than 41% from distance on the Under Armour circuit last Summer on roughly 5 attempts per game. Fluid athlete, but lacks any sort of quick twitch explosion. Handle is solid, but it can be a bit high and soft at times. Uses length to finish over defenders at the rim, but primarily a jumpshooter at this stage in his development. Projects mostly as a catch and shoot wing at the next level with flashes of creating his own offense. Will become more of an on-ball shot creator with further development. High ceiling prospect that doesn’t appear to be one and done material based on lack of size/strength/athleticism. Shotmaking likely translates from day 1, but needs to add muscle mass in order to be competent defender on the wing.

Where Does Michigan Stand: Mom played at Northwestern. Michigan hasn’t been mentioned at all recently. Based on an interview with Rivals last week, it appears his top group is Michigan State, Duke, Villanova, Virginia, Ohio State and Northwestern. Lone official visit was to MSU. Per aforementioned article, Christie plans on taking visits before making a decision prior to his senior season. Reading between the lines, Duke and the Spartans appear to be two of the primary contenders.

Trevor Keels

  • Height/Wingspan/Weight: 6’4/6’5/230
  • High School/AAU: Paul VI Catholic (VA)/Team Takeover (EYBL)
  • Offer Date: December 10, 2019
  • Offers: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio State, Villanova, Louisville, Maryland and over 15 others
  • End of Summer Ranking Projection: 4star/top 35 overall

Scouting: Elite shooter off the catch with NBA range. Effortless stroke with repeatable form. Handle good enough to attack a closeout and straight line drives against smaller defenders. Below average athlete that lacks ideal movement. Projects as a floor-spacing shooter that attacks out of control defenders on closeouts. Shooting will translate the second he steps foot on a college campus. Productive, multi-year college player that lacks the physical profile and athleticism to be attractive to NBA GMs any time in the near future. Needs to refine body and shed 15-20 pounds in order to be competent wing defender.

Where Does Michigan Stand: The Wolverines didn’t get much mention recently until conducting a virtual visit with Keels on Tuesday. Many expected him to be on the verge of committing to Virginia or Villanova as recently as last week. His High School teammate is Duke signee Jeremy Roach, while 2020 commits Hunter Dickinson and Terrance Williams are both travel ball teammates for Team Takeover. I heard Villanova was strong with him in early April. But it seems Juwan Howard has started to turn the heat up with 21s, so we have a puncher’s chance here with his AAU teammates also in his ear.

Kobe Bufkin

  • Height/Wingspan/Weight: 6’5/6’7/170
  • High School/AAU: Grand Rapids Christian HS (MI)/The Family (EYBL)
  • Offer Date: April 24, 2020
  • Offers: Michigan State, DePaul, Northwestern, VCU, Rhode Island, TCU, Ohio
  • End of Summer Ranking Projection: 4star/top 40-60 overall

Scouting: Kobe definitely has good ball skills and the offensive repertoire of a guard. Good shooter with nice arch and fluid motion on his jumper. Pull-up jumper from distance is very good. Advanced perimeter footwork to create space from the wing. Above average handle and can functionally get where he needs to. Thrives in ballscreen action as both scorer and playmaker for others. Good vision and makes teammates better. Above average finisher with good body control that absorbs contact well despite slender frame. Fluid athlete, but lacks explosiveness and ideal movement to defend P5 level guards. Projects as a versatile offensive player in college that can play the 1-3 spots depending on the opponent. His skillset and movements definitely remind me of a smaller Jalen Rose. A multi-year college player that needs to add muscle mass. High ceiling, has pro-potential down the road, particularly if he grows 2 inches.

Where Does Michigan Stand: Bufkin took an unofficial visit in the Fall for a football game, but Michigan hasn’t been involved much until offering last week. He definitely liked the idea of playing at Michigan under Coach Beilein, but DePaul is certainly a team that is strong with him as of right now.

Isaiah Barnes

  • Height/Wingspan/Weight: 6’5/NA/190
  • High School/AAU: River Forest HS (IL)/Illinois Wolves (Under Armour)
  • Offer Date: April 26, 2020
  • Offers: Kansas, Wisconsin, Georgia, Maryland, Iowa, Illinois, Iowa State and a handful of mid-majors
  • End of Summer Ranking Projection: 4star/top 50-75 overall

Scouting: Physically developed athlete with some vertical explosion at the rim when finishing. Very good lower body balance on his jumper with good elevation. Has a bit of extra motion on his mechanics, but nothing that’s of great concern. Hits pull-up jumpers from both distance and midrange. Good catch and shoot floor spacer as well. Above average handle, can change direction/speed off the bounce. Good first-step acceleration for a wing. Projects as versatile wing that can score from multiple spots on the court and have some on-ball duty depending on the matchup. Has some real potential as a plus defender with his combination of size, strength and athleticism. Likely to be a productive two-way wing that makes an impact early in his career, but sticks around multiple years. Think a less explosive Charles Matthews, perhaps with better ballskills/shooting at the same stage of development.

Where Does Michigan Stand: Barnes’ recruitment has exploded in recent weeks, and Michigan is the most recent school to jump in with an offer. He mentions Michigan, along with Iowa State, Georgia, Wisconsin, St. Louis, Iowa, Maryland, TCU and Illinois as the schools he speaks with the most in an interview with 247 earlier this week.

Bonus: Desirable Wings Not Yet on The Radar

I preface this section in saying the prospects reflected below have not yet been targeted by the staff. Put simply, I think said prospects are kids that I’d like to see Michigan express some interest in should the aforementioned offers not work out. Since no interest has been expressed, I’ll keep it brief.

Eric van der Heijden

  • Height/Wingspan/Weight: 6’8/NA/200
  • High School/AAU: Millbrook HS (NC)/Team Wall (Adidas)
  • Current Ranking: Composite #140 Overall

My Take: this kid is criminally undervalued. You simply cannot find prospects with this combination of size/shotmaking/ballskills/athleticism. Will likely be a top 50ish prospect for me when I update my 2021 rankings. If the live evaluation periods happen this Summer, he’s likely to blow-up on the national scene in short order.

 

Alex Fudge

  • Height/Wingspan/Weight: 6’7/NA/185
  • High School/AAU: Lee HS (FL)/Team Parsons (Adidas)
  • Current Ranking: Composite #78 Overall

My Take: explosive athlete that has the physical profile of an NBA wing. Developing ball skills and nice shot mechanics. Ceiling is off the charts for this kid. Has the look of a slightly smaller Greg Brown. Definitely not 75ish prospects better in the 2021 class. Again, likely to be top 50ish in my rankings update.

 

Jordan Nesbitt

  • Height/Wingspan/Weight: 6’6/6’7/210
  • High School/AAU: St. Louis Christian Academy (MO)/Brad Beal Elite (EYBL)
  • Current Ranking: Composite #134 Overall

My Take: much like Heijden above, Nesbitt is among the most undervalued prospects in the nation. I first saw him last year in Milwaukee at the NY2LA event and he immediately entered my database as a 4star prospect. I next saw him in November at the Chambana Classic in Illinois, where he was the best player on the court by a wide margin when matched up against a Prolific Prep team featuring 5stars Jalen Green, Nimari Burnett and 4stars Coleman Hawkins, Jaden Jones and Frank Anselem. Definitely has the offensive skillset of a guard, with a great pull-up game and the ability to do generate offense late in the clock. A high-floor prospect that will contribute very early in his career and likely be a multi-year impact player in college.

Comments

mgoplastic

April 30th, 2020 at 4:16 PM ^

Sounds like just about all of the main targets are unlikely, and Michigan hasn't reached out to the guys you're also excited about, so while it's obviously early, who are the likeliest options then at this point for those 2-3 wing slots?

Matt EM

April 30th, 2020 at 4:19 PM ^

Bufkin definitely grew up a Michigan fan, but Coach Beilein didn't necessarily give him the interest level he was looking for. That allowed DePaul to gain traction.

Keels will be an option because Williams/Dickinson will be in his ear.

Too early to really forecast with Barnes. 

Matt EM

April 30th, 2020 at 4:49 PM ^

I don't think we can really say that. Coach Howard didn't get the job until May 2019, so by definition he was going to be late in relation to other programs.

Also, its obvious at this point that Coach Howard targets a different caliber of athlete/prospect in relation to Coach Beilein. His preferred target is more college ready, and likely has more raw talent. He definitely places more of a premium on athletic, downhill attackers that can physically compete. Less emphasis on shooting. 

njvictor

April 30th, 2020 at 4:56 PM ^

It just feels like we're offering a lot of these guys way late and months after other programs. MSU offered Akins, Brooks, and Bukfin all months before us. Adam Miller was offered like a few days before he announced his decision in the fall. Lance Ware and Henry Coleman were both offered not long before their decisions in the fall if I remember correctly. I think Juwan is a good recruiter, but it also seems like he's still figuring out his timing on offering and how many offers he should be giving out

mwolverine1

May 1st, 2020 at 12:36 PM ^

Akins attended and dominated Michigan's camp last August. MSU offered shortly after. In fact, Matt had identified Akins as a top 100 player long before then. Michigan didn't offer til February. We were late to the party on this one. My guess is we had our sights set higher for a time, and then offered once we had struck out on Burnett and others and had more clarity on the scholarship situation. Regardless, we still have a good chance and I hope we can convince him to come. 

True Blue Grit

April 30th, 2020 at 4:21 PM ^

If Michigan does end up needing 3 wings, the staff should be expending more energy on guys in your bonus section IMO, than spending it on pie-in-the-sky 5 stars who aren't coming here.  We can build a great team with those kind of players -ones who have talent and will stay 2,3, or maybe even 4 years.  This G-league development just makes spending a lot of time on 5* star guys very non-worthwhile (unless you're Duke or KY).  

njvictor

April 30th, 2020 at 4:46 PM ^

This article was slightly depressing. Not even sure why we event try with those top 3 wings listed. They're always going to be Duke or Kentucky locks

RAH

April 30th, 2020 at 6:17 PM ^

Bajema is looking at the transfer portal! This certainly sounds like bad news. I'm surprised and also surprised that no one else has commented on it. 

4th phase

April 30th, 2020 at 9:56 PM ^

The board is a little too small at this point. So far you’ve discussed 10 guys, none of which we clearly lead for and some of which are more than long shots. Need to get offers out to more guys soon.

nerv

April 30th, 2020 at 10:26 PM ^

I really thought there was a big role Bajema had a chance to carve out this season. Lots of time to be had at the 2 & 3 and not a whole lot of competition for those minutes. I hope he ends up staying. All these likely contributors bailing is really a downer.

Frank Chuck

May 1st, 2020 at 1:17 AM ^

I'm from the St. Louis area so I'm happy to see Jordan Nesbitt get some attention. I would absolutely love watching him play for the Maize & Blue.

Isaiah Barnes has my attention. He may not be overly flashy but he strikes me as a steady/productive player.

And Eric van der Heijden is an intriguing player. Selfishly, I hope he doesn't blow up to the point that Duke and North Carolina come calling.

OkemosBlue

May 1st, 2020 at 8:00 AM ^

 Thank you!  You do a fabulous job, and your defining your positions is an example of this.  Please accept what follows as the ramblings of a former lawyer (maybe made before!) and not a criticism.  I would just geenrally state that competent shooting is a requirement at all positions and plus shooting a desired quality.  This is true at every position in today's basketball, isn't it?  In particular, even point guards need to shoot competently. Gloriously,  Z played with that requirement at times during his career, but he was the exception that proves the rule.  Imagine if he'd hit 40% of his open 3s!  Players either come up to that standard at the time they're recruited or not. Thanks again.

DMZBlue

May 1st, 2020 at 11:32 AM ^

After watching the film on Nesbitt and Van der Heijden, totally agree with your take.  You can win a lot of games with those two on your roster.