Ticket watch: buy now or wait?

Submitted by Malarkey on January 3rd, 2024 at 12:17 PM

Prices are nuts, but they don’t seem to be dropping anymore 

Football

Killewis

January 3rd, 2024 at 2:13 PM ^

warning sign for me on these are that everyone i’ve talked to seems to be assuming they’ll drop. if everyone is waiting for a drop, the actual market behavior is likely to be opposite. that being said, the amount available is probably a good proxy, the moment that starts to drop even a little is probably the time to buy. hard to see these dropping more than a couple hundred bucks from where they are now anyways. 

Joined: 08/24/2011

MGoPoints: 696

jschulz79

January 3rd, 2024 at 2:22 PM ^

One thing to keep in mind re: the supply you see online.  The ticket brokers are gaming the system.  I noticed last year when buying tix for the semifinal that within specific sections / rows, the inventory would drop a bit as people bought tickets, but then would go back up again.  It became pretty clear to me that brokers are holding back tickets to make it look like the supply is dropping, but then when they would start to clear out they would replenish the supply.  While it is scary to wait, the best prices will probably be Sunday night / Monday morning.  But when the supply really does run out as gametime approaches, the prices will be insane.

Joined: 10/06/2016

MGoPoints: 44

BlueInEnemyTerritory

January 3rd, 2024 at 2:25 PM ^

Many of these tickets are speculation buyers.  It doesn't operate like a stock market, as the tickets spoil.  Whenever I pick games to go to, I track them closely (recovering UM engineer).  Regular season, bowls, final fours, playoffs all follow the same pattern.  As volume (Thurs!) increases, prices drop, and as you get closer to the even, tickets drop.  Based on watching last year, I think you'll see 20% drop in LL, and 30-40% in upper level.  Getting Wash as our opponent was much better than Texas.  Volume tipping point is usually 2 days before the event.  That's when you want to target buying.  It's stressful, but worth a few hundred bucks per ticket.

Joined: 01/03/2024

MGoPoints: 40

MaizeBlueA2

January 3rd, 2024 at 6:03 PM ^

Agreed. If the ticket dump is tomorrow... I'll just keep an eye on it and get in before it starts to go back up.

I'm not willing to give the folks looking to make money and the brokers any more than I have to.

I'm not going to be so aggressive that I miss out. But you can literally watch it live as things start to fall and people start trying to sell their tickets before the next person sells theirs.

Hell, I've done it on StubHub a few times...I always put my tickets at XX.49 so they're just a little lower than the lowest. Usually it takes just a few minutes and they're gone. 

Actually, I've had it where more expensive tickets in my section have gone and I've quickly logged in to raise my number.

So I feel like I know how the game works, I'll be patient until tomorrow then snag the best thing I can find.

Joined: 11/06/2018

MGoPoints: 50580

BlueInEnemyTerritory

January 3rd, 2024 at 10:23 PM ^

Sorry to hear.  There's a lot of this going on.  It frustrates me that people make a living out of stealing from other people.

One tip that I've used is the payment systems when not buying thru Stubhub/Seatgeek, etc.  I think Paypal is the one that guarantees ticket, effectively insurance.  It costs a few bucks more, but no chance of losing the $700.  I think I did that on 8 MSU tickets last year and it worked flawlessly.  Also, I made sure to talk to the guy and literally looked him up on LinkedIN.  Lot of money at stake.

It's a tough market for these big ticket purchases.  Most of the resellers charge 30%, so you just have to bake that into your expectations/ticket targeting.  It sucks, but they do provide a service.  It's not perfect, but way better than trying to do large cash exchanges on the street.  

Joined: 01/03/2024

MGoPoints: 40