BBrown: Informal Rating Scales
After talking with Brian and Seth I have decided to employ a bit of a rating scale when it comes to offered prospects and prospects I outline in the "Names To Watch" series.
I noticed that I almost always end my mini-interviews and introductions with a sentence that looks something like, "I think Michigan's chances with him.....", but with no actual level of measurement. From now on, offered prospects will be rated on the following scale:
Offered Prospects
0 - Not interested
1 - If he visits, let's talk
2 - Probably Top 15
3 - Probably Top 5
4 - Probably Top 2/3
5 - True Blue Lock
This gives a bit of a measurable value to where a recruits interest level is, but isn't concrete and is also easy to adjust as visits happen, other offers roll in, and relationships are built.
The "Names To Watch" scale could be a little tougher to nail down, but I'll still attempt to put some value on how serious the interest is from both parties. A lot of kids love Michigan but don't really have much of a chance to earn an offer. On the flip side, sometimes the coaches would love to have a kid, but the chances just aren't very realistic so an offer may not materialize.
Names To Watch
0 - Not going to happen
1 - Doesn't look good right now, but we'll see
2 - 50/50, yes or no, wouldn't be surprised
3 - It looks like an offer could come in the future
4 - I fully expect an offer to come
5 - Guarantee this kid is offered
As I said above, this could be a little harder to gauge because I'm not in the war room with the coaches. I have some contact with the staff, but it's limited and it's against the rules to really talk about the kids before they sign anyway.
I hope these numerical values give some insight as to what I have been able to learn first hand from the recruits, their coaches, or their parents. I am open for suggestions involving the scale but plan to start using this, or some version of it, moving forward.
February 25th, 2014 at 1:42 PM ^
Brandon, thanks for including the ranking scale. For me though, it seems to be a waste for you to do an interview or profile for any "names to watch" that would be a 0.
Also, can you give us an example for 2015 recruits that fall into each of the sixcatagories (or five if you don't think there are any locks)?
February 25th, 2014 at 3:32 PM ^
There will be an extremely low number of "Names To Watch" profiles that would receive a 0. The whole idea behind those types of recruits is that Michigan is showing interest in some capacity, thus an offer is always a possibility. In fact, I may have only had contact with 5 or less players in doing this that I thought in my head, "There's no way that kid gets offered." Most of them will have had contact with the staff to some degree so the interest is usually mutual on some level.
For 2015 I'd say this could be an example board:
0 - Not interested
1 - If he visits, let's talk
2 - Probably Top 15
3 - Probably Top 5
4 - Probably Top 2/3
5 - True Blue Lock
0 - Josh Rosen
1 - David Sills
2 - Christian Kirk
3 - Mike Weber
4 - Damien Harris
5 -
And you are correct, I don't think there is a "True Blue Lock" at this point. Tyrone Wheatley Jr. and Tyriq Thompson would be the only two even sniffing that level, and I'd still call them a "4".