hennechart

or

How Tate Stacks Up Against M QBs of 2005-2008

Update 10/22: Lots of changes. Reorganized. New Sheridan charting added. New, better metric proposed. Now fat-free!

Note: links all open in a separate window/tab, in case you were afraid of having to find your place again.


[Editor's note: bumped to front page for holy crap reasons.]

This is a collection of data inspired by Coach Schiano's brilliant new visualization of the Henne/HenneMallett/ThreetSheridammit/UseTheForcier Chart.

19First, kudos, thanks, plusses, and a dozen sacrificed bulls go out to Coach Schiano. This is the most excited I've been about some new type of Michigan coverage since I read my first UFR.

I hope he doesn't mind if I go back and try to play around with the same stuff.

I went and made my own Excel spreadsheet (available here) to see if I could visualize some of the things we've been talking about here.

I replicated Coach Schiano's results (tossing out the screen metric).

One thing that stuck out right away, I think, is that the introduction of the "Marginal" metric (first discussed after FOOTBALL ARMAGEDDON in 2006 but not implemented until mid-2008) kind of hurts the QBs functioning under it. Erstwhile "catchables" for Henne/Mallett were discounted for late '08 through '09 QBs. In other words, performances before last year's Penn State game, especially in accuracy, might be kind of overrated.

Also, there were a number of games not charted during this period. These include Delaware State '09 (and high school stats, for much the same reason); Ball State '06 (Comcast was blamed); all bowl games;* and last year's Ohio State game, which was only UFR'ed under a shadow Bolshevik government, and thus cannot be trusted.

* (a UFR for the 2005 Alamo Bowl was provided, but since the entirety of that UFR was, literally, "Screw 2005!", I was unable to get any passing info from it)

Part I: Where We Do It By Downfield Success Rating

The metric we've been using, gleaned from UFRs, is Downfield Success Rating. This divides the Dead-on, Catchable, and Marginal balls against all downfield (read: "Pressure excluced") attempts.

BEST 5 GAMES BY A QB

SeasonQuarterbackGameOpponent W/LDOCAMAINBRTABAPRATTDSR
2007HENNE7Purdue W320N/A111122985.2%
2007HENNE6Eastern MichiganW416N/A101212583.3%
2005HENNE11Ohio StateL627N/A1141N/A4082.5%
2008SHERIDAN10Minnesota W2204321003278.6%
2005HENNE5Michigan StateW425N/A1331N/A3778.4%

Sheridan's Minnesota miracle looks even more miraculous now! Note, however, there were only 2 Dead-On throws, and 2 bad reads. Also, just one throwaway, no batted balls, and no pressure. That's the O-line and running game's fault.

In other coaching-related-results here, Henne's 2005 Ohio State game was scrumtrulescent by any metric, except apparently not good enough for DeBord to use the passing game to put the game out of reach. Not that I'm bitter...

WORST 5 GAMES

SeasonQuarterbackGameOpponent W/LDOCAMAINBRTABAPRATTDSR
2008SHERIDAN11Northwestern L092972002933.3%
2008THREET9Purdue L172722212438.1%
2008THREET4Wisconsin W115N/A937213843.2%
2007MALLETT11Wisconsin L313N/A1162123844.4%
2009FORCIER6Iowa L191523222545.5%

Sheridan's putrid, I-Survived-That-Game-Patch-Inducing game against Northwestern is, unsurprisingly, at the top. In fact, it may even trump several of my 7th grade sexual experiences in the category of worst-executed-thing-ever-done-by-man.

But I'm getting off topic. Note that Forcier's Iowa game actually made this hall of shame. So RR's pulling him for that game may be excusable. However, it is still my considered position that even with shoulder/weather/concussion/bad game, had Forcier been given that last drive, he would have pulled himself back to respectability.
Though 2008 dominated the Top 5, if you look at the Top 10 we get Threet v. Miami (NTM), three Malletts (Min, PSU, NW) and Henne's all-things-good-in-the-world-destroying 2007 game against Ohio State. [Much, much more after the jump.]