big ten title

(Apologies if this belongs elsewhere, but I haven't seen this analysis done yet).

At 11-3, with a half-game lead on Staee and four games remaining, Michigan is obviously in the driver's seat for the B1G basketball title.  Using the game predictions from KenPom's site, I've done a quick probability analysis to see what the odds are that there's a banner to be hung.

First, Michigan's expected record, along with a percent chance:

 

15-3 36%
14-4 43%
13-5 18%
12-6 3.1%
11-7 0.18%

(I used two significant figures, since there were two in the KenPom data; obviously, they won't add to exactly 100%).

Here's Staee's expected record:

14-4 16%
13-5 49%
12-6 32%
11-7 3.7%

Iowa:

13-5 15%
12-6 40%
11-7 33%
10-8 or worse 12%

Wisky:

13-5 37%
12-6 44%
11-7 17%
10-8 or worse 2.4%

Ohio:

12-6 33%
11-7 44%
10-8 or worse 23%

Nebraska:

12-6 5.7%
11-7 26%
10-8 or worse 68%

Put it all together, and you get the following possibilities (all chances here are conditional -- e.g., each line should add up to 100% within the limits of rounding and significant figures):

Record Outright Title Shared Title No Title
15-3 100%    
14-4 84% 16%  
13-5 19% 65% 16%
12-6 0.20% 19% 81%
11-7 < 0.01% 0.20% > 99%

When you factor in the chances that Michigan achieves each of these records (from the first table), and add it all up, and there is a 75% chance of an outright title, a 19% chance of a shared title, and a 6% chance of being bannerless.  (Coincidentally, I coded up a simulation using the same KenPom percentages, ran it 100 times, and got at least a share of the title exactly 94 times).

Long story short, even with a single loss, the odds are still in our favor to win the title outright, since KenPom doesn't think Staee is likely to run the table, and 2-2 down the stretch is likely to be enough to secure a share of the title.  Like many of you, I never would have predicted this in December.

Go Blue!