chance of bowl: 13.6%
Quarterback is not the only difference.
Something you may not wish to address in season but in watching this team I had this thought:
Solid run defense, inconsistent pass defense, an offensive line with talent struggling to gel, solid backs, receivers and tight ends. Hmmm, sounds like 9 or 10 wins from Carr again. What is missing is a solid, low turnover, accurate, quarterback. Completely unfair?
Cumong man, that's completely unfair. You're comparing this offensive line to those featuring Jake Long or a half-dozen other NFL players, with zero freshmen of any variety on them unless they're Hutchinson-level talents. The backs don't make the right cuts and almost never make yards on their own. The tight ends are not good right now except for Butt, and Butt is still working his way back from an ACL tear.
There's no part of this team not subject to mental breakdowns that are hard to accept four years in. This includes quarterback, but since it seems like any QB under Hoke goes backwards it all ends in the same place.
BUT IS HE BETTER THAN A WISTFUL ORANGUTAN?
In the wake of the ND game i have found my anger directed more at Dave Brandon than anything for whatever various and stupid reasons. The conventional wisdom seems to be, "hey, but revenues are increasing so, even though football is terrible and the stadium experience is horrible, Dave Brandon is great at growing the business." I think that is non-sense. I looked at revenues from 2002 through 2013 (graphs and numbers in attached spreadsheet) and the trendline attached to the revenue data shows Brandon has not out performed Bill Martin. Growth in revenue looks very on trend from Martin's tenure.
If you look at Michigan's AD revenue from 2005 versus some other athletic departments (texas, OSU, florida, Alabama, Oklahoma) our athletic department hasnt outperformed them either. Those five ADs revenue increased 84% from 2005 til 2013, Michigan's increased...83%.
Look, the data i gathered isn't perfect, I don't love the way USA today presented the 2005-2013 data. I've sort of cobbled together the 2002-2004 data from U-M budgets. The way i have presented the data is somewhat problematic (i should index 2005 to 100 then see the changes from there), but I don't think it changes the overall picture.
The point is I am really bothered with the conventional wisdom saying Brandon is doing really well increasing revenue. He is merely riding a wave that started long before here was hired and affects all of college football. Raising ticket prices doesn't make you a business genius. He gets zero credit for increased television revenues, which are the two overwhelming drivers of the whole enterprise.
These are things I am sure you are aware of but i have not seem them articulated on the blog.
It should also be noted that the portion of the surge from 2009 to 2011 not due to increased BTN payouts was largely the luxury boxes coming online. Michigan offered them for cheap the first year and then increased the price to the regular level in year two.
So even if you are measuring Michigan athletic department success by revenue—a completely bonkers thing to do—Brandon is completely average in this department while being literally the worst AD in the country at public relations. A wistful orangutan could have been Michigan's athletic director since 2010 and revenue would still be way up. And students would love him!
[After the JUMP: Manning plausible as a CB coach over time? Mysterious red clad team-thing. Where to go in the event of an apocalypse. (The real apocalypse, not bad football.)]
At 8:15 on a Friday, so unless they're trying to bury their publicity stunt—not likely—they were blindsided by the catalogs for like the third straight time and released them early because the cat was already out of the bag. It's 2014, guys: the internet is fast.
Goofy numbers were already known, and then the monochrome blue. They're running out of options before they start tossing around all yellow, aren't they?
As caught by an alert Joshua Henschke on twitter, the latest MDen catalog strongly implies that Michigan will wear alternate uniforms for the Penn State game:
I'm not surprised, I guess. I had just forgotten about the possibility of such a thing and was disappointed to remember we do this now.
I'm sure this will be sold as a throwback to some fictional time in the past when Michigan wore stripey numbers under coach Pterodactyl The Second and won the Big Ten thanks to their velociraptor riders, because Authenticity™.
UPDATE: actually looks like an MGoUser was first to wonder.
jonvalk's Wallpaperpalooza (1/4)
Things in the Past. There were some great diaries that would have been required reading if this was yesterday. Paps previewed Wofford (this you saw on the front page), Erik_in_Dayton tackled the history of 15 seeds upsetting two seeds; it's happened seven times since 1991. That may be more fun to visit now that the danger is passed, if only to relive 2012 Duke.
The game was played only 55 miles from Duke’s campus, but it was also the site of the first round game for UNC. Tar Heel fans gladly joined in rooting for the Mountain Hawks.
Oh man, Duke. That was two years ago. Is it still acceptable to laugh about it?
It is considered acceptable to still laugh about this game.
Speaking of way-back, remember the Big Ten Tournament? LSA has stats on that.
Meanwhile MGoBlueline put a ton of effort into reintroducing the hockey team for the Big Ten Tourney and then who-knows in the plinko playoff system. But those guys lost to Penn State in double-OT (finishing 2-3 on the year against the hockey equivalent of our lacrosse team) and will need to be lucky to earn a tourney bid. There were plenty of things to go wrong, including really bad turnovers and the now-requisite game-winner that almost went in but didn't.
The hockey guys (Brian, Center Ice and Blueline) will cover the most unsurprising upset ever in more detail, but there was one thing that infuriated me all game, and that was Penn State's defensemen were pinching despite being rather bad backwards skaters, and only a few times did Michigan challenge this by speeding through the neutral zone. When they did move up-ice with any kind of urgency in the 3rd period, DeBlois and Nieves split defenders and got off great scoring opportunities.
Since we're now left watching tourneys and hoping the unworthy don't steal autobids, here's a handy graphic of the tournaments.
Things in the Future or Never. Interesting, quickly consumed diary by saveferris looks at the history of 1-4 seeds in the NCAA tournament. Survey says:
I just stole his lede here, so I'll tell you that there's a Burke gif at the top if you take the link. My guess is the closer seeds are to each other the more this will look like 50-50, i.e. the reason two-seeds won just 4 of 12 Finals games since 1985 is only 12 two-seeds have made the Finals.
|The other Sierra (soph. OF Sierra Lawrence) has a .462 OBP going into Big Ten play.|
And Softball. I could probably say this about the softball team most years, but I really really mean it this year: pay attention because they're on a new level of awesome fun awesome. They've carried a 19-6 record so far through an epic brutal schedule. South Bend Wolverine provided the update as the team is (finally) going into Big Ten play.
Thing to Know 1: Pitching is huge in softball; one great one will put a team in the Top 25. Michigan has three(!) such towers. I'll stop comparing junior Haylie Wagner to Verlander because her 0.93 ERA/13-0 record is more like Walter Johnson. Freshman sensation Megan Betsa has 63 strikeouts in 49 innings. Something's been off with junior Sara Driesenga, who was All-Big Ten both previous seasons, and picked up the slack last year when Wagner was out. If Sara returns to form the pitching is just going to be unfair.
Thing to Know 2: Star shortstop Sierra Romero's looks like Miguel Cabrera at the bat and in the field; in the comments Hail to the Blue points out her glove is fine but her arm's been erratic.
[Jump for Best of the Board]
Because it's always the right idea to mess with a good thing, Michigan (among several other Adidas schools) unveiled special uniformz for the postseason. They're not terrible, though I'd prefer "MICHIGAN" across the chest; they're also completely unnecessary and way worse than, say, the throwbacks they wore against Penn State last year.
Jargon-laced press release ahoy. (Emphasis is mine, because holy jargon.)
ANN ARBOR, Mich. -- The University of Michigan men's basketball team and adidas unveiled today (Thursday, March 6) the Made in March Uniform System for the 2014 basketball postseason. The collection was created to provide the Wolverines with adidas' most advanced uniform system and basketball apparel technology so they can take on the challenges and intense play of March.
To evoke team unity and spirit, Made in March uniforms feature the Wolverines team name across the chest, while the school's "Go Blue" rally cry is printed on the inside collar of each jersey.
Made in March uniforms feature a functional perforated print pattern along the leg of the stretch woven short to enhance breathability and ventilation, keeping players cool as the clock winds down. Adidas' quick-drying jersey technology found in current NBA uniforms along with ClimaCool zones on the chest, back and side move heat and moisture away from the body to keep the jersey light and dry as players sweat.
The Made in March Uniform System debuts on-court beginning with conference tournament play.
You can purchase these if you'd like; since I don't want to encourage this behavior, you'll have to find the link elsewhere.
The good news: at least we're not Baylor.
RPI Effect Only Teams:
Let’s face it. UMass-Lowell (7-14), Houston Baptist (4-18), South Carolina State (8-14) and Coppin State (8-14) are all undeniably bad, were poor scheduling choices, and are really bad. Also they are bad. The details are irrelevant.
Long Beach State (9-12) beat Hawaii and Cal State Fullerton to move up to 124 on KenPom (they were well into the two hundreds at the end of December). Likewise, Holy Cross (13-10) is up from #187 in early January to #142 after a loss to American and a win over Colgate. Both are currently ahead of Charlotte (14-7), who beat Florida Atlantic and FIU this week.
Big Sorts of Teams
#16 Iowa State (17-4, 5-4 Big 12)
This week: Beat Oklahoma (81-75); Beat Oklahoma St (98-97 3OT)
Iowa State survived their seven game mega-gauntlet of Oklahoma twice, Kansas twice, at Texas, at Oklahoma, and at Oklahoma relatively unscathed, winning 3 of the 7. That included a crazy-ass, 90 possession, 195-point triple overtime win in Stillwater. They now move into the TCU/Texas Tech portion of their schedule, which should provide more fertile grounds.
For those who remember way back to the time before Trey Burke, Michigan offered two point guards at the same time for the same spot. One was Derrick Walton, and the other was a kid named Monte Morris. You probably recognize Derrick Walton from that game the other day, but Morris has likewise been great. Morris moved into the starting role at the 2-guard for Iowa State a few weeks ago, and has been a nice compliment to DeAndre Kane.
Florida State (14-8, 5-5 ACC)
This week: Lost to Clemson (53-49); Beat Virginia Tech (70-50)
FSU was in a bit of a post-BCS hangover recently. Losing to UVA and Duke happens. Losing to NC State and at home to Clemson probably shouldn’t.
#11 Dook (18-5, 7-3)
This week: Lost @ Syracuse (91-89 OT); Beat Wake Forest (83-63)
Despite losing in overtime to Syracuse, Duke has established itself as one of the most dangerous teams in the country. According to Bracket Matrix, though, they’re still only on pace for a 3-seed, along with Creighton and Michigan (and Cincinnati, but they don’t really help my point). If those three end up as 3-seeds, Warren Buffett will breathe a little easier, as brackets will be even more of a mess than usual.
If you missed the end of that Duke-Syracuse game, though, you should find it and watch it. With the sound off, obviously, because Dick Vitale is still a thing we’re doing. But it was great basketball.
#2 Arizona (21-1, 8-1 PAC 12)
This week: Lost to Cal (60-58)
Tough week for Arizona. They lost their first game of the year, and in the process they lost starting wing/forward Brandon Ashley for the season with an ankle thing.
Stanford (15-7, 6-4 PAC 12)
This week: Beat Arizona St. (76-70), Beat Cal (80-69)
Stanford is slowly working its way onto quasi-firm bubble territory. Beating the team that just beat Arizona certainly doesn’t hurt. Stanford is up to #34 in KenPom, which is fourth in the PAC 12 and ahead of the likes of Minnesota.
[AFTER THE JUMP: Big Ten geology]