A note on the defensive formations below: I'm just trying to generally describe what kind of front Minnesota is in. I don't have any idea who is who on Minnesota's team and on TV they never tell you about substitutions, so I have little idea if Minnesota actually had, say, four linebackers on the field when they aligned in a 4-4. I suspect they just had the same guys out there all the time and moved them around.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M34	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	4-4x	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	6
Minnesota in a dedicated eight-man front with four DL and four LB. One or two of them are probably safeties but they're lined up as LBs. This means there's no one lined up directly over Odoms; Michigan goes to the bubble. Minnesota reacts quickly enough; Stonum gets a good block on one guy but there's another coming from the outside and Odoms is tackled after a decent gain. (CA, 3, screen)
M40	2	4	Wildcat	4-4x	Run	ISQD	Minor	-1
The usual QB sweep featured in Picture Pages lo so many weeks ago. Good scoop from Ferrara and Molk gets the playside DT sealed and Ferrara out on one of the LBs, but Ortmann(-1) has been driven back considerably, closing the hole and forcing Minor to bounce it out, where Minnesota linebackers and whatnot converge.
M41	3	5	Shotgun trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Fly	Mathews	28
Sheridan drops back and just chucks one downfield. Mathews gets no separation—unsurprising since this is a really obvious playcall—forcing Sheridan's throw to be perfect for Mathews to have any shot. It is; Mathews makes a spectacular one-handed diving grab. (DO, 1, protection 2/2) DO, 1 is something I don't think I've ever written before, FWIW.
O33	1	10	Shotgun trips	4-4x	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	1
Molk(-1) lets Minnesota time the snap on this one and gets beaten by the NT lined up directly over him, which forces the usual cutback into unblocked guys. Minnesota was blitzing two OLB sorts and had four DL and two MLB, so, yeah, this probably wasn't going anywhere anyway.
O32	2	9	Shotgun trips	4-4x	Pass	Out	Stonum	Inc
Okay, the eighth guy in the box is a safety they're walking up to the line every play. They actually back him out this time but send six at the snap; the DEs time the snap. Michigan manages to hold off the first wave; a delayed blitz from the Minnesota LB gets him in untouched and Sheridan has to chuck it, hitting Stonum on a hideously looping out that Stonum drops. Actually, it appears the DB knocked it away. (MA, 1, protection 2/2)
O32	3	9	Shotgun trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Koger	Inc (Pen+5)
A Minnesota LB doesn't even wait for Molk's head to come up to jump across the line of scrimmage. Sheridan ends up rolling out and throwing an errant one-yard hitch to a covered Koger which he can't bring in. (MA, 2, protection N/A)
O27	3	4	Shotgun 2-back	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Post	Stonum	Inc
The safety reads it, as Sheridan is staring this down the whole way, jumping the route and nearly picking the ball off. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: FG(44), 3-0, 11 min 1st Q. This drive gave me the heebie-jeebies re: Sheridan.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M29	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read counter	Minor	2
Sort of on the 4-3, anyway, with a guy lined up directly over Odoms and a safety rolled up; always many in the box. Michigan breaks out the play with Moundros diving backside to block the DE that worked well last week but the DE has crashed inside, forcing Minor outside, where the guy lined up over Odoms—not covering the bubble—tackles. I have this insane idea that Michigan could have a play like this where the QB hands off to the RB, then turns into a potential option pitchman(!).
M31	2	8	Shotgun empty 2TE	Base 4-3	Pass	Slant	Savoy	Inc
A wobbler that's well behind Savoy and incomplete. May have been tipped at the line, hard to tell. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M31	3	8	Shotgun 2-back	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	QB draw	Sheridan	5
Sheridan provides a flare screen pump fake, then takes off upfield. It opens up for a few yards but Minnesota is close enough to the LOS that a couple guys get to Sheridan before the sticks.
M36	4	3	Punt	Punt return	Run	Zoltan!	Zoltan!	7
Zoltan does his rugby roll, realizes there's no one to the side of the field he's rolling to, and outruns the one guy rushing him to that side for a first down. Space.
M43	1	10	Shotgun trips	3-4x	Pass	Long handoff	Mathews	3
Three down linemen with a guy on the corner creeping up at the snap after Minnesota started off with a man look. Sheridan chucks a long handoff; Mathews gets a few. (CA, 3, screen)
M46	2	7	Shotgun trips	3-4x	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	40
Same deal from Minnesota. They've got their two DTs pinched in real tight and the one DE they do have lined up in normal outside position; I've never seen anything like this before. On this they blitz a guy off a corner, send one LB on the bubble route, and then have the other two guys start stalking outside. Michigan, though, is going right up the middle. Schilling and Moosman have a miscommunication or something and let the backside DT split them, but he slips or gets grabbed or something and falls, sending Minor into the secondary for a major gain—no linebackers. On replay, it looks like Moosman inadvertently tripped the guy.
O14	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	3-4x	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	2
Minnesota's DL are shooting upfield, not stepping left to match the Michigan OL, and as such both Moosman and Schilling get their guys cut and out of the play as Molk heads to the second level, where he misses his block because the playside DE has caused Minor to cut up more abruptly than I think the usual intent is. Minor spins out of that guy's tackle; Gophers converge.
O12	2	8	Shotgun diamond	3-4x	Pass	Diamond screen	Odoms	-3
Man, Stonum(-2) really messes this up, getting off the snap late and letting his guy in on Odoms. If he gets a block, this looks like a touchdown. Instead Odoms gets tackled behind the LOS, fumbling and turning the ball over. (CA, 3, screen)
Drive Notes: Fumble, 3-0, 6 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O49	1	10	Shotgun 2-back trips	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Shaw	7
They run this to a very crowded short side of the field, FWIW. Molk gets a great reach block on the playside DT, creasing the line, and Shaw scoots through it with Moosman and Minor leading the way; unfortunately Ferrara's downfield block on the MLB is pretty meh and Shaw runs into the pair about three yards downfield. He continues plowing his way downfield, getting tackled from behind.
O42	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	9
A man free look, sort of, with three linebackers right in the box and one deep safety. This provides a numerical mismatch on the trips receivers side; Michigan throws the bubble. This one isn't as upfield as it should be, allowing the Minnesota defenders some time to fend off their blocks, but Odoms still has plenty of room to scoot for the first down. (CA, 3, screen)
O33	1	10	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read keeper	Sheridan	8
Sheridan keeps it this time, getting outside of a crashing defensive end and cutting up smartly for good yards.
O25	2	2	Shotgun empty	4-4x	Run	QB off tackle	Sheridan	1
A tight formation with Moundros and Minor lined up as h-backs. I never understand the blocking on these where the lead back on the stretch or on this play doesn't attempt to slam up between the G and T or C and G but instead heads outside the T. That guy never blocks anyone. Anyway, there's a crease here as Moosman does get the playside DT sealed but it's Moosman, right, not Molk, so there's no one in the hole blocking the WLB/safety guy lined up over Odoms in the slot, and that guy hits Sheridan hard.
O24	3	1	I-form twins	3-4x	Run	Iso	Minor	1
Minnesota's DTs get an excellent slant into the path of the play—lucky call—and take Michigan's guards into the backfield, falling; Minor has to cut back and meets the unblocked guys on the backside. Just short of the line.
O23	4	In	Ace	Goal line	Run	QB sneak	Sheridan	1
Hoorah
O22	1	10	Shotgun empty 2TE	3-4x	Run	QB off tackle	Sheridan	5 (Pen+5)
Minnesota DT jumps the snap again, drawing a flag—I bet Michigan sent in a bunch of tape from the MSU game and said “dude, WTF”—as Michigan runs the QB zone stretch thing again; Molk somehow manages to prevent his guy from closing down the hole despite the snap jump and Sheridan squeezes through; that DT does trip him up as he passes.
O17	1	5	Shotgun 2-back	3-4x	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	Inc
Odoms drops this, possibly because he's trying to figure out how not to get killed by a charging safety who has this dead to rights. (CA, 3, screen) Even though you can hear the whistles going for a good four seconds, a Minnesota player rams into Odoms' knees and doesn't get called.
O17	2	5	Shotgun 2-back	3-4x	Pass	Rollout – FB flat	Moundros	Inc
The play action counter play that opponents seem to have figured out. Sheridan gets a guy in his face and ends up throwing short to Moundros, who should have 3-4 if he catches it. He doesn't. (CA, 3, protection NA)
O17	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	3-4x	Pass	Fade	Mathews	Inc
This is accurate-ish but I think Mathews is running to the near corner of the endzone and is open. Sheridan is throwing it further back; this allows a Minnesota defender to recover and make a nice play on the ball. (MA, 1, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: FG(34), 6-0, EO1Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun trips 2TE	4-4x	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	2
Molk gets the seal on the reach again, creasing the Minnesota line, but Ortmann's attempt to cut the backside DE—flowing down the line as Minnesota has a LB on contain—fails and that guy flows down the line to tackle. Well blocked otherwise.
M22	2	8	Shotgun 2-back	4-4x	Pass	Fly	Stonum	Inc
A fly route that Stonum looks open by a step or two on, and the ball is right there, but it's either dropped or raked away by the defensive back or something and dropped. On replay: yeah, Stonum starts letting up on the gas as he tracks the ball, which allows a beaten DB to recover and defend on the catch. Still, this is a ball in Stonum's hands and one he could have come up with. Maybe he needs to be stronger. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
M22	3	8	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Pass	Post	Odoms	Inc
Sheridan with a ton of time—max protect—and finds Odoms as he clears the second level in the zone. I think the linebacker Odoms is clearing actually might get a fingertip on this as it passes, as the ball seems to die just as it passes him, causing Odoms to slide to his knees and extend. He fails to bring it in. Again: not exactly a routine catch but a makeable one. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 6-0, 13 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M21	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	ISQD	Feagin	4
Since we only have the one Incredibly Surprising play at this moment, Minnesota is all over this, shooting a safety upfield and forcing a cutback. An attempted scoop by Ferrara and Ortmann doesn't go so well as Ortmann can't get down the line fast enough to seal the backside DT; he tackles on the Feagin cutback.
M25	2	6	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Wheel	McGuffie	39
Sheridan looks left at first at either Odoms or Mathews, finding nothing to his liking. Michigan is using a slide protection, which ends up with Minor attempting to take on a DE, which is not a long term solution, so Sheridan decides to roll out. He chucks it as he breaks the pocket, finding McGuffie wide open on a wheel route for major yards. It's again short, allowing Minnesota to recover, but still a great play. On replay, though, you can see that if this ball is ten yards further downfield it's a touchdown. McGuffie was gone, man. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
O36	1	10	Shotgun trips	4-4x	Pass	Bubble screen	Clemons	20
An excellent bubble screen, as Minnesota is blitzing the guy nominally lined up over the slot guy and there are again just two defenders downfield for M to deal with; Clemons splits them and does a good job of making more YAC. (CA, 3, screen)
O16	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Clemons	7
LB nominally lined up on Clemons bites on the dive fake, so Clemons is virtually guaranteed yardage with two defenders well back and a blocker on the closer one. Stonum does a decent job on the corner and Michigan nears another first down. (CA, 3, screen)
O9	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	3-4x	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	0
This three man line is pinched in, making it tough for Ortmann and Ferrara to get the scoop on the playside DE; they end up failing to and that DE is sitting right in the hole. With Moosman beaten on the other side Minor has one option, to cut behind Ortmann. An unblocked linebacker is waiting.
O9	3	3	Shotgun empty 2TE	Base 4-3	Pass	Post	Clemons	Inc
Sheridan stares this down all the way and draws the defender right to it; defender jumps the route and nearly intercepts. (BR, 0, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: FG(28), 9-0, 8 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M23	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	3
This throw is a little too far upfield, which slightly delays Odoms. Rogers(-1) whiffs his block downfield, and a safety comes flying up quickly as we've been running this quite a bit. Odoms is hemmed in by the two defensive backs and corralled after a small gain. (MA, 3, screen)
M26	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	Triple option dive	Minor	4
Michigan really should have an advantage here as the Minnesota DT jumped the snap, then got back just as M snapped the ball. He's not ready. But the other DT is slanting right into that hole and Minor ends up taking it right at the backside DE, who is crashing down all the way. Minor does well to power through his tackle for decent yardage.
M30	3	3	Shotgun 3-wide	3-4x	Run	ISQD	Feagin	34
It's not like Minnesota isn't expecting this all the way: they've got eight guys in the box and no deep safety, manning up on the receivers outside. But it doesn't matter as the backside DE and DT get cut just enough for Feagin to hit a crease between them and the doubled playside DT. David Molk is getting a great, sustained downfield block on the MLB, and Koger cuts another LB to provide a second-level crease; Feagin bursts into the secondary.
O36	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	4-4x	Run	ISQD	Feagin	1
Same thing again; Michigan trying to catch Minnesota off guard by getting to the line and snapping it as soon as the play is blown ready. A DT shoots upfield; Ferrara manages to escort him up past Feagin but he does force a cutback. There's a crease where the vacated DT came from but Koger and Ortmann are both trying to block the DE and Minor is heading outside as per usual, so there's an unblocked linebacker in the hole where Feagin cuts up.
O35	2	9	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Triple option keeper	Sheridan	1
Minnesota all over this, with plenty of guys containing the ball after the fake dive. Sheridan cuts up and gets back to the line of scrimmage.
O34	3	8	Shotgun 2-back	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Rollout – hitch	Odoms	11
The “noooooo!” rollout throwback featured in the Monday column this week, a dart to Odoms on a hitch route in between four defenders. At this point Sheridan is downgraded to SEVERE ILLNESS. (DO, 3, protection NA)
O23	1	10	Shotgun trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	-4 (Pen+15)
I think this is supposed to be our bubble variant where Odoms comes to a stop and shoots into what should be open space after the tight corner has freaked out in an effort to get outside of his blocker. We saw that a couple times against Purdue. On this, eh, not so much, as a safety is charging Odoms at the snap and tackles as the ball arrives. Minnesota needs to be threatened with a deep ball here and there, methinks. (CA, 3, screen) Michigan lucks out, as Minnesota picks up a facemask personal foul.
O11	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	-1
Molk and Ferrara try to scoop the NT and fail; Molk does slow the guy up and Ferrara attempts to cut him; the NT stays on his feet, flows down the line, and meets Minor at the LOS. Good play from him; Ferrara might need to work on his cut technique.
O12	2	11	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	ISQD	Feagin	4
Scoop on the NT again; this time Moosman gets enough of a cut to delay him. Ferrara stalemates the DE to the playside and ends up pancaking him, though I think he tripped. Feagin hurdles the prone duo and looks about ready to head for the first down when Moundros's LB manages to dive and make a shoestring tackle.
O8	3	7	Shotgun trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Slant	Mathews	8
Sheridan takes one or two steps as if he's going to roll right, which gets the robber safety moving that way; Minnesota's CB gives up inside position right away and this slant is an easy pitch and catch for at touchdown. (CA+, 3, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 16-0, 2 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M47	1	10	Shotgun trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	0
Okay, I've been a major Molk proponent so far but on this one he(-2) gets smoked by the NT, who proceeds to blow up an otherwise promising play.
M47	2	10	Shotgun 2-back	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Seam	Odoms	Inc
Oh, man, this one is behind Odoms just as he broke past the Minnesota linebackers. If accurate, this is a major gainer. Reading Odoms body language after the play, it is plain as day he says something short and jovially expletive-y. "Damn," maybe. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M47	3	10	Shotgun 2-back	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	3
Give up and go to half.
Drive Notes: Punt, 16-0, EO1H.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M36	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	3-4x	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	15
Another variant where the bubble isn't going as wide as you might expect; this time Stonum's guy tries to shoot inside of him and make a spectacular play in the backfield instead of doing his job and cutting off the outside; Stonum gets just enough of him to prevent Odoms from getting lit up; Odoms' quicks get him outside. There he jukes a linebacker and shoots for a first down. Slippery little bastard. (CA, 3, screen)
O49	1	10	Shotgun trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Improv	Stonum	10
I'm surprised Minnesota didn't fall for this: Michigan fakes the bubble and tries to go deep; it must be covered as Sheridan doesn't chuck it. This is after a bubble flood in the first half and a successful bubble to open the second half. I'm surprised Minnesota's safeties aren't having a campfire around Odoms. Anyway, Sheridan hesitates and then scrambles out of the pocket when his timer goes off, chucking a looping out to a wide open Stonum for a first down. So maybe they did fall for it a bit. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
O39	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	Zone read counter	Minor	1
Well, Ferrara(-1) doesn't seal his guy on this and it's a pretty easy block to make with the DT lined up inside of him while the play is supposed to go behind him. Compounding the difficulty: Ortmann(-1) ran right by the Minnesota linebacker. Three Gophers crush minor at the line.
O38	2	9	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	ISQD	Feagin	0
Odoms comes on a fake reverse, which does cause a couple of guys on the backside to cease their pursuit, but Feagin's heading outside and all that does is remove a blocker from the area. Minor(-1), the lead blocker, whiffs on a safety coming up the LOS and Feagin gets swarmed.
O38	3	9	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Mathews	7
Minnesota protecting the sticks so this is open; immediate tackle from the DB prevents Mathews from reaching the first down. At this spot on the field you're either going or it or setting up a reasonable field goal attempt so I don't mind the short throw that sets up a fourth and short. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: FG(48), 19-0, 12 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M9	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	0
Moosman(-1) beat badly by the Minnesota DT, driven back a yard or two and then discarded; the backside DE is crashing down on the run as well and there's a double on the other DT, allowing a linebacker in unblocked. Minor is gang-tackled by three guys, then bounces off it and tries to get outside; he's run down.
M9	2	10	Shotgun trips	4-4x	Pass	Swing	Shaw	5
Eh, a little swing that's open for a few. I think if Shaw cuts back hard here the Minnesota players are overrunning it and he can break for a first down. Instead he just puts his head down and gets what he can. (CA, 3, protection NA)
M14	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Rollout – hitch	Mathews	10
Sheridan rolls out and finds Mathews wide open (which would infuriate me if I was a Minnesota fan) on a hitch just past the sticks. Mathews turns it up for a few more after the play. (CA, 3, protection 1/1). Good cut from Minor opens up the outside and gives Sheridan the time to make the throw.
M24	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	-1
Minnesota blitzes a WLB right into this and he clocks Minor in the backfield. I'm not sure what Michigan could have done with this playcall against thiers.
M23	2	11	Shotgun trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Penalty	False Start	Moosman	-5
Nein, Moosman, nein.
M18	2	16	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Mathews	23
Huge play on this drive as Sheridan completes a little five yard hitch, which would prepare M for third and long and a probable punt except that Mathews(+1) spins out of the tackle and lopes downfield for first down yardage. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M41	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Shaw	48
Minnesota lines up in a vulnerable position here with a DT over the backside guard and the NT shaded to the backside of the play, leaving just one DE—who's standing up—on the other side of the line. Scooping the NT is thus pretty easy and Moosman gets a free release into the second level; Molk cuts off one linebacker; Koger and Moosman get to double(!) a linebacker, blasting him back; Shaw zips into the secondary. He ends up cutting back at around the 35 when I think he might be able to just blaze upfield for a touchdown; tough to tell. +1 Odoms for trying to get a block downfield.
O11	1	10	Shotgun 2-TE	3-4x	Run	ISQD	Feagin	3
Man, if Michigan went play action here I have a hard time not seeing one of the TEs wide open in the endzone. Minnesota stuffs nine guys in the box. Michigan actually blocks this very well despite the overloaded box; Koger plows a LB backwards (his blocking is much improved this game) and Schilling gets a downfield block as a double ends up sealing the playside DE. It's Moundros(-1) who doesn't get his guy, allowing him to close down from the outside as Feagin nears the LOS, slowing stuff down.
O8	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	ISQD	Feagin	2
Big cutback lane opens up as the playside DT crashes to the playside and Moosman clocks the WLB; Feagin sees it and cuts up... into the arms of the backside DT, who Schilling(-1) couldn't cut effectively.
O6	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Rollout – out	Odoms	Inc
Rollout; Sheridan chucks it in the general direction of Odoms but the ball is well short. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: FG(23), 22-3, 2 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M31	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	-1
On this one Molk(-1) loses the playside DT behind him, allowing him through and right into the would-be crease. McGuffie gets buried.
M30	2	11	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	3
Much better from Molk; they get the DT sealed this time and McGuffie has a crease through the line; Schilling's attempt to cut the MLB is avoided, though, and he meets McGuffie a few yards downfield.
M33	3	8	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Throwaway	--	Inc
Some initial time, then Schilling(-1) gets beaten to the outside, forcing Sheridan to step up. He gets hit on the arm and decides chucking is the better part of valor. (TA, 0, protection 1/2, Schilling -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 22-6, 10 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M47	1	10	I-form twins	Base 4-3	Run	Pitch sweep	Shaw	3
Minnesota blitzes a corner into this; Moundros peels off to take him out. This forces Shaw upfield. Line is getting good push on the Gophers so there's no one in his face immediately but the backside defensive end is closing in; Shaw ends up cutting back behind everyone and taking on an unblocked WLB headfirst; small gain. Shaw looks like he's had “north-south” beaten into his head, FWIW.
50	2	7	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	4
Weak blocking by Savoy on the perimeter. (CA, 3, screen)
O46	3	3	Shotgun diamond	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	QB draw	Sheridan	5
No idea why Minnesota is in a three-man line this late, especially on third and three, but they are. Crease opens up in the middle, as you might expect, and Sheridan uses McAvoy as a shield downfield, picking up the first.
O41	1	10	I-form twins	Base 3-4	Run	Iso	McGuffie	14
Moosman's quick step to the right gets the playside DE sealed away; Koger kicks out the OLB. Schilling releases downfield and basically misses the MLB, allowing him to shoot through; Moundros pops him and McGuffie squeezes through a little crease, bouncing off a defender and then popping outside for a good gain.
O27	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 3-4	Run	Zone read stretch	Shaw	5
Camera angle on this is pretty wide so it's hard to tell what's going on; looks like Molk and McAvoy execute a scoop on the NT, creasing the line and getting Shaw through to the linebackers. A charging safety chops him down after a moderate gain; Minnesota is obviously selling out on the run now.
O22	2	5	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Shaw	2
Minnesota turns this upfield; the backside DT has evaded McAvoy's attempted cut and closes Shaw down at the LOS.
O20	3	3	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Run	QB off tackle	Sheridan	7
Sheridan actually ends up cutting behind Molk's block this time as Minnesota is selling out on the playside; the backside DT got pushed by Moosman and the sort of cut by Schilling and is delayed enough for Sheridan to skip by and pick up the first.
O13	1	10	Shotgun trips	Base 3-4	Run	Zone read dive	Shaw	3
Minnesota ends up forcing this back to the unblocked defensive end; he tackles.
O10	2	7	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Run	QB off tackle	Sheridan	3
The playside DT has been slanting hard to the playside on these the last couple times, forcing Michigan to double him; this has lead to that guy getting blown down field a couple yards and the runner coming up behind it as unblocked linebackers come around to tackle.
O7	3	4	I-form twins	Base 3-4	Run	Iso	Shaw	4
Shaw finds a small crease between about four Gophers, picking up about two, then is fortunate to get tackled in such a way he picks up the extra couple yards for the first down.
O3	1	G	I-form twins	Goal line	Run	FB smash	Moundros	3
Hooray fullback touchdown.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 29-6, EOG. For any RUTS complainers, this drive is nine runs and a bubble screen: STFU.

Five field goal attempts is sort of annoying, but we broke 400 yards!

Word.

Last week you said this:

I'd like to see the run game function for two consecutive games before I start raining praise on it.

What say you now?

What's the deal, weird bolded fictional question-asking alter ego? Now you're digging into old posts and bringing their contents back into the light? Et tu?

Are you going to answer or what?

Fine. The run game did indeed function for two consecutive games and, as a live blog commenter noted, I finally got something right in a game preview: Minnesota's defense was ridiculously aggressive and Michigan alternated negative or 0-yard runs with big heaps of yards gained when they cracked through the line and there were no linebackers in the vicinity.

This seems like real progress. Over the last two weeks, Michigan has 76 carries for 430 yards. Though they haven't been taking on the 1970s Steelers, that's 5.7 YPC against a vast array of eight- and sometimes even nine-man fronts with a rag-tag offensive line, a banged up set of running backs, and quarterbacks close to the platonic opposite of Pat White.

Caution is still advisable, as Purdue is the country's #90 rush defense and Minnesota is #65. Northwestern, remarkably, will be a step up. They come in with the #45 rush defense and I'm sure most of you remember the specter of Northwestern DT John Gill slashing into Mike Hart over and over again last year in Evanston. I expect a step back against the Wildcats and for Ohio State to completely crush the run; if Michigan can pump out something similar to the last couple weeks against the Wildcats and look sort of vaguely okay against Ohio State, I will be thrilled with the direction of the run offense going into 2009. If expectations bear (stupid) fruit I'll still be mildly encouraged.

Charts?

Charts.

Here's Threet:

STEVEN THREET

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Utah	1	11	N/A	5	1	3	2	1
Miami (NTM)	-	6	N/A	4	1	-	2	-
Notre Dame	3	12	N/A	5	2	1	-	-
Wisconsin	1	15	N/A	9	3	7	2	1
Illinois	3	18	N/A	7	3	4	2	3
Toledo	1	6	N/A	3	1	1	-	-
Penn State	2	5	1	1	1	3	-	2
Michigan State	4	13	3	2	7	3	1	3
Purdue	1	7	2	7	2	2	2	1

Digging out Sheridan's old charts seems pointless since there's so little data in them because M never threw and he got pulled, but here's his Minnesota game in comparison:

NICK SHERIDAN

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Minnesota	2	20	4	3	2	1	-	-

Before we get too carried away: 11 CAs and one MA were screens, and both BRs were horrible decisions that should have been intercepted. Okay. Now: caveats aside we still have a downfield good/bad ratio of 11-6. That's beyond acceptable; that's downright good.

I don't think Sheridan has a prayer in hell of doing that against someone like Ohio State, and even Northwestern has a sort of respectable defense this year (58 in total yardage, 38 scoring, 49 pass efficiency D… but that is not DEATH.

As for the receivers:

(remember: 0 is uncatchable, 1 is a circus catch, 2 is a somewhat difficult one, and 3 is a routine one)

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
Clemons	1	-	-	2/2		4	-	1/3	10/10
Stonum	-	0/1	0/1	1/1		4	0/5	5/6	6/8
Mathews	-	1/2	-	5/5		9	3/9	4/6	19/20
Hemingway	-	-	-	-		1	0/2	2/2	-
Odoms	2	-	0/1	8/9		16	0/2	5/7	37/40
Babb	-	-	-	-		-	0/1	1/1	1/1
Savoy	1	-	-	-		1	-	-	1/2
Rogers	-	-	-	-		2	-	-	2/3
Butler	-	-	-	-		2	1/1	0/1	2/2
Koger	-	-	0/1	-		4	0/1	2/3	3/4
McGuffie	-	-	1/1	-		3	-	3/3	15/15
Brown	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	3/3
Shaw	-	-	-	1/1		2	0/1	1/1	4/4
Minor	-	-	-	-		3	0/2	1/3	4/4
Moundros	-	-	-	0/1		3	-	-	1/2

Receivers could have helped out Sheridan a few times on long balls that were in their hands but could not be reeled in: Odoms and Stonum both missed opportunities. Also note that Mathews is the only guy to have hauled in any "1s" so far this year (other than Butler, who no longer plays offense); he's the guy with the hands.

And I saved the best for last:

PROTECTION METRIC: 19/20, Schilling –1. Okay, you can see how heavily Michigan screwed with its gameplan to make Sheridan functional here: a "20" for the entire game is a record low. But 19/20 is a great ratio against anyone.

Heroes?

Pick an offensive lineman; that was the best performance they've had all year. And, yes, Nick Sheridan, take a bow.

Goats?

There was a liveblog poll that asked "are you concerned about Darryl Stonum's hands" that was mostly answered in the affirmative (though "Coner!" ran a strong second) and, yeah… I am a little concerned about Stonum's hands.

Also: Angry Michigan Running Back Hating God, could you lighten up? So far this year:

• Carlos Brown explodes a finger during spring practice
• Kevin Grady has some sort of injury that holds him out of spring
• Grady gets a DUI for being so drunk he's dead
• Brown has nagging injuries in fall
• Minor has nagging injuries in fall, costing him practice time and the starting job early in the year
• Michael Shaw can't catch kickoffs
• Shaw pulls his groin
• Brown breaks something in his foot
• McGuffie is concussed
• Minor wrist issue against Purdue
• Minor has shoulder and rib issues and is doubtful for Northwestern

Holy hotpants. We get it, AMRBHG. WE GET IT.

What does it mean for 2009?

One thing it doesn't do is prolong Nick Sheridan's shelf life as a viable starter. Though his work in this game was shocking, efficient, and inspiring to any 5'10" kid in Model United Nations who wants to play Division I football, Sheridan's vast deficiency in arm strength was on display even as he completed three different deep passes. He's just too limited physically to be a long-term option.

As to things it does do: that was an excellent performance by the offensive line. If you've followed this blog over the past few months you know it's been a consistent proponent of undersized but nimble center David Molk, the one real OL prospect Michigan picked up after they decided to switch their blocking schemes to zone. Early in the year he was getting his butt kicked by various large mean men who would pick him up and escort him bodily into the ball carrier but you could see his agility serve him well whenever he wasn't going up against Samoans or Wisconsin's beef machine. He is just a redshirt freshman and should continue gaining strength under Barwis; he should also maintain his agility. I think you're looking at a four-year starter in the making, and a good one. Now if he can just switch up the snap counts more consistently…

As for the rest of the line: I still have reservations about the tackles in pass protection despite their showing Saturday, and it's clear Tim McAvoy is someone the coaching staff would like to replace (he did play at least some portion of the second half last week, FWIW). I think in an ideal world some magic redshirt freshman will emerge at tackle and Steve Schilling will take up residence at guard, giving you something like this: Ortmann/Dorrestein-Schilling-Molk-Moosman-Magic Freshman. I also think we're likely to go into next year without that magic freshman; if we do get one it's likely to be Ricky Barnum stepping in at left guard.

Minor is obviously the starter at RB as long as he can stay healthy; Mathews, Stonum, and Odoms are obviously the starters at receiver as long as they're healthy.

The Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs. Minnesota
WHERE	The Worst Stadium In America, Minneapolis, Minnesota
WHEN	12:00 EST, November 8th, 2008
THE LINE	Minnesota by 7.5
TELEVISION	ESPN

*(NCAA football lines courtesy BetUS sportsbook)

Run Offense vs. Minnesota

After a one week, jumped-snap-induced hiatus, Minor Rage returned and was darned effective, opening the game with a 45 yard touchdown run and ending with 155 yards on just 24 carries, an average of 6.5 per.

Some of that was Purdue hanging back with two deep safeties and only putting six guys in the box on many downs (they did blitz corners frequently, but that rarely impacted the play. With Steven Threet concussed and very likely out, Minnesota will probably be more aggressive.

As far as their defense goes, a year after being the defensive equivalent of Notre Dame they're… well, still the defensive equivalent of Notre Dame: much, much better but still not exactly good. They're #65 in total defense, #53 in rushing defense, and #20 in scoring defense. That gap is easily explained by another number: 2, Minnesota's rank in turnover margin.

So, mediocre run D versus mediocre run O should be a push, except, uh:

Team	Rushes	Yards	Avg
Ohio State	37	279	7.5
Indiana	24	49	2.0
Illinois	33	88	2.7
Northwestern	41	220	5.4
Purdue	40	117	2.9

Minnesota does not do "push". They either destroy on the ground or get destroyed. (And when they're not getting destroyed they're giving up like 462 passing yards to Juice Williams.) And with all of those teams running some version of the spread there's not a whole lot to choose from here. Given Michigan's inconsistency I hesitate to predict anything.

Oh, I guess I have to: these guys seem like major gamblers. They get a ton of TFLs and lost yards and give up their share of big plays. I think misdirection will do well and we'll see whoever the quarterback is keep it more to good effect (Mike Kafka ran for 217 yards last week); at other times they'll shoot into the backfield and put Michigan in untenable long yardage situations. Sustaining drives will be tough; a big play or two seems probable.

Key Matchup: Whoever the QB is making the right reads on when to keep the ball.

Pass Offense vs. Minnesota

=

 

Key Matchup: DEAAAAAAAAATHHHHHH

Run Defense vs. Minnesota

Minnesota's run offense has taken a major step backwards in year two of the Brewster regime. Some of this has to do with the injury absence of starting running back Duane Bennett. His main replacement is DeLeon "Ponce" Eskridge, and he's struggling mightily thus far, averaging just 3.6 YPC. Quarterback Adam Weber will also keep it eight to ten times a game; he's kind of meh on those carries, too.

Michigan, meanwhile, you know the story: pretty good on the defensive line with erratic (read "poor") play from the linebackers and the occasional secondary disaster. This should be advantage Michigan.

Key Matchup: Nose Tackle Whoever versus double teams. If we're in the 3-3-5, and I imagine we will be against an offense much like Purdue's, the NT has to exploit what looks like a shaky offensive line.

Pass Defense vs. Minnesota

The pass offense remains pretty good and pretty efficient, with Minnesota checking in 36th in passer efficiency. A serious sack count (they're 73rd) indicates problems on the OL, especially when coupled with the iffy run numbers. Weber's averaging 7.3 YPA and has 11 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions.

Given the issues we saw in the secondary last week, this has to be considered a significant Minnesota advantage even if their big threat, Eric Decker, sounds like he'll be gimpy with an ankle sprain.

Key Matchup: Safeties versus TACKLING. Obvs.

Special Teams

Things have started to get slightly brighter here: Martavious Odoms returned a punt for a touchdown last week (and, yes, fumbled one); he and Boubacar Cissoko had a series of excellent returns that set up Michigan's offense with good field position. That's two weeks in a row the kick returns have been pretty good. There was one major error last week other than the muff when Odoms failed to field a pooch at around the 13. The ball was eventually downed at the one. Oh, and Purdue had a 60-yard fake punt.

Still, punt and kickoff returns have gone from dire to downright average (58th and 64th) over the last two weeks. (Michigan was #111 in punt returns when the Purdue game kicked off!) Add in Zoltan's usual displays of excellence and the special teams is approaching something… okay. Woo?

Minnesota, meanwhile, is doing all right in the various categories: 44th in net punting, 48th in punt returns, 31st in kick returns. Kicker Joel Monroe is okay, going 9-13 so far this year.

Key Matchup: Michigan keeping up the returns would be good.

Intangibles

 garfield minus garfield 

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• DEATH
• The outside coverage doesn't make more sense.
• We have a QB wearing #30.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Um… not death?
• Minor Rage actually works two weeks consecutively.
• I dunno.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 10 out of 10. (Baseline 5; +1 for DEATH, +1 for DEATH, +1 for DEATH, +1 for DEATH, +1 for DEATH.)

Desperate need to win level: 2 out of 10. (Baseline 5; –1 for I Am Henri, The Otter of Ennui, –1 for There's Not Even The Vague Hope Of A Bowl Game, –1 for DEATH.)

Loss will cause me to... react in no way whatsoever.

Win will cause me to... well, I'll have to re-nickname Sheridan, I guess.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

DEATH

Finally, opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• DEATH
• DEATH
• Minnesota, 23-15.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M40	1	10	I-Form 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	McGuffie	-2
Ortmann(-2) whiffs embarrassingly on the DT, and he's sitting unblocked in the hole.
M38	2	12	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	0
I don't understand the blocking on this one: the playside DE is left totally unblocked as Dorrestein heads to the second level. Minor runs by him and McGuffie's again dealing with a defender in the backfield.
M38	3	12	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Cross	Koger	Inc
Threet checks down to a crossing route that's going to gain three yards max; Koger drops it. (CA, 3, protection 1/2, Schilling -1). Threet was getting pressure-ish stuff from both DEs and had to get rid of it.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 13 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O33	1	10	I-Form 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	McGuffie	3
Decently blocked with Molk and Moosman doubling a DT to his knees and Moundros burying the MLB; the WLB does a good job of fending off Molk, peeling from the double, and fighting to McGuffie's path.
O30	2	7	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read sweep	McGuffie	10
Yeesh: Michigan gets away with an obvious hold as Ortmann(-1) literally tackles his guy from behind. Had no material effect on the play, though, as Schiling(+1) got a good, sustained block on the DE and Moundros(+1) popped the OLB, providing McGuffie a crease. He jukes a defender and gets to the corner for first down yardage.
O20	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	McGuffie	6
Minor actually in an h-back position; he shoots upfield as a lead blocker on this play. Moosman(-1) is immediately shucked by the DT, forcing McGuffie to cut back, which works pretty well as Ortmann and Molk(+1 each) have doubled and driven back the other DT. There's an unblocked linebacker back there but it's still positive yardage.
O14	2	4	I-Form 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	McGuffie	3
Minor still in; now he lines up at FB. Well-blocked play sees Molk and Moosman(+1) effectively single-block Toledo DT, creasing the line right where the play is going. Minor(-1) whiffs his block and Rockets converge in the hole.
O11	3	1	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Run	Pitch sweep	Grady	6
Michigan catches the playside DT slanting in and can single block him with Molk, which leaves a gaping hole between him and the playside DT, manhandled by Schilling(+1). Two guys whiff blocks on the MLB, though, and Grady meets him a few yards downfield. This was in Picture Pages earlier today.
O5	1	G	Ace twins	Base 4-3	Run	Dive	McGuffie	0
Carson Butler (wooooo!) completely whiffs on the OLB lined up over him; he and and unblocked backside player converge to meet McGuffie in the backfield.
O5	2	G	Shotgun big	Base 4-3	Pass	Cross	Koger	Int
Again, “big” in this case means a running back with Moundros in the backfield and a TE with two WRs. These guys are covered—once too many times to the well for us on this play near the goal line—and Three throws it to Koger, who's undercut. 100 yards later, well... you know. (BR(!!!), 0, protection N/A)
Drive Notes: Defensive touchdown, 0-7, 6 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M49	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read veer	McGuffie	4
A reader points out that the play Michigan's run a few times where McGuffie's intended hole is between the unblocked backside DE and the tackle to the backside of the play—think Minor TD against UW—is more properly termed a veer. (This was also featured in Picture Pages.) This is that play. The timing is off on this one or Threet should keep it or something and the DE closes it down after a few yards.
O47	2	6	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Clemons	5
A little behind Clemons, forcing him to turn back and maybe delay his progress by a split second. This gets a linebacker in on him just enough for a diving tackle attempt at the LOS. Clemons steps through it, starts stumbling, and manages to fall forwards for a decent gain. (CA-, 3, screen)
O42	3	1	Shotgun 2-TE	Base 4-3	Pass	Long handoff	Mathews	3
Man, Toledo is playing Stonum in the parking lot on this one and a long handoff is eight easy. Instead they... throw a long handoff to Mathews, whose guy is 4 yards closer to the LOS. Eh, weird. Mathews manages to squirt forward for the first. (CA, 3, screen)
O39	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	3
Pretty good crease for McGuffie here but the MLB dodges a downfield blocker I think is Molk—low def video this week—and takes on Minor(-1) effectively. Minor is stood up and when McGuffie cuts back, seeing a good cut from Schilling(+1) on the backside, the linebacker makes a diving grab for his legs, latching on.
O36	2	7	I-Form 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Pitch sweep	McGuffie	-3
Their rock, our scissors on this play as they're blitzing a safety and LB to the side of the play. Koger can't get his block on the LB and the blitzing safety is heading right up into McGuffie. McGuffie cuts past him but now he's headed upfield into two unblocked guys.
O39	3	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Seam	Koger	Int
Wildly overthrown and nearly intercepted. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-7, 3 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M45	1	10	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Flare screen	McGuffie	9
Wooo! Watch Stonum(+1) clock the OLB here; that is what I am talking about. That opens up tons of room for McGuffie; Schilling attempts to cut the CB downfield but whiffs. McGuffie runs up to him, where tackling happens. (CA, 3, screen)
O46	2	1	I-Form 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	FB Dive	Moundros	4
Good enough block from Moosman, one of those tough reach blocks where you're trying to harass a guy lined up playside of you. The DL fends it off eventually and hits Moundros but his momentum plows forward for decent yardage.
O42	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Pass	PA Cross	Clemons	15
Triple option fake; Threet backs out and sets up to pass. This gets him plenty of time for Clemons to drag open. Threet's throw is iffy, pulling Clemons upfield and back into a defender, or he can make 5-10 more yards after the catch here. (CA-, 3, protection 2/2)
	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Seam	Minor	27
Touchdown. Someone must have seen something in the Toledo alignment because Michigan resets with Minor moving from the backfield into the slot. Threet hits Minor in stride as he clears the linebackers; Minor's into the endzone before the safeties can get over. (DO, 2, protection 2/2) They review it and eventually decide that Minor didn't fumble the ball before he crossed the plane, but add this to the Reasons Minor Does Not Get A Lot of Carries, as without the endzone this is a fumble.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-7, EO1Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M46	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	McGuffie	8
Backside DE gets blocked this time; Ortmann gets driven back a bit by the DT but takes him to the ground; no call. McGuffie bounces outside Ortmann's block, putting a move on the WLB to turn four in to eight or so.
O46	2	2	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	Grady	1
A comically bad read from Grady(-1), as he cuts directly into Ortmann(+1), who had pancaked his guy at the LOS, instead of the gaping hole next to Ortmann. Good block from Molk as well.
O45	3	1	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	McGuffie	1
Grady gets yoinked after the comically bad read, but McGuffie is the wrong back for this task. Molk(-1) whiffs on the MLB, who meets McGuffie an inch or so from the first down line... and that's as far as they go. 1) Haven't seen an M linebacker do this all year, 2) Grady probably falls forward for the first here if he doesn't start running towards the wrong endzone.
O44	4	In	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	McGuffie	In
Well blocked enough here, as there's a major crease between Ortmann and Dorrestein with the DT slanting inside, but Moundros(-1) ignores the unblocked MLB scraping over and decides to take on the safety. The MLB tackles; McGuffie barely gets it.
O44	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	Threet	13 + 15(pen)
Toledo sends two guys to one side of the field on a blitz along with three linemen; good pickup from Shaw(+1) and good for Threet to step up past the blitzers. He can't find anyone downfield but there's a major running lane; he takes it. (TA, 0, protection 2/2) Horsecollar tackle called on Toledo, which may have been the correct call but that wasn't dangerous at all... I hate this rule.
O16	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read veer	Shaw	5
Ortmann(+1) downblocks on the DT, blowing him inside; the DE, held outside by the zone read fake, crashes in a little late and by that time Shaw is already motoring to the LOS.
O11	2	5	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	1
Extremely poor read from McGuffie(-1) on this as he's got a huge cutback lane behind Molk and Ortmann. He cuts up he's near a first down at least. Instead he heads to the sideline and gets strung out.
O10	3	4	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	McGuffie	1
Grady as an H-back; same play we ran earlier with Minor in Grady's position. Grady shoots up into the hole, blocking a linebacker, and McGuffie(-1) makes another very poor read, cutting to the left, away from the angle of Grady's block and into an unblocked linebacker. Rodriguez gives it to Grady after the play, but McGuffie had huge lanes if he would just take them.
Drive Notes: FG(28), 10-7, 11 min 2nd Q. A side note: it's kind of amazing how consistently wrong the color guy is. A lot of guys will say things that are irrelevant; this guy is saying things that are like 100% wrong whenever he expresses an opinion.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Clemons	-2
Clemons might be lined up too far inside here because he's barely outside the Toledo LB; said LB reads the play and gets out on Clemons just as he catches the ball. Babb, on the outside, ended up not blocking anyone. (CA, 3, screen)
M18	2	12	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Run	QB draw	Threet	2
A defensive end slanting into the play area makes things difficult; McGuffie is caught up in the traffic and thus can't get out to block anyone. Threet is converged upon.
M20	3	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Screen	McGuffie	-2
Ortmann(-1) just sort of falls down in the general area of a linebacker; this is not blocking him. Threet's throw, meanwhile, is upfield, forcing a difficult catch from McGuffie and stalling his momentum. The play's timing is destroyed. (IN, 2, screen)
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-7, 3 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M18	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	9
Schilling(+1) driven back at first but finds a base and gets the DE moving backwards as McGuffie reaches him, allowing McGuffie the corner. Good downfield block by Moosman(+1) has occupied the SLB, and Moundros chips another player, providing a lane and nearly a first down.
M27	2	1	I-Form 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	McGuffie	11
Right up the gut; Moosman and Molk double the playside DT and create a large crease between he and the DE; Moundros cuts the LB to that side to the ground.
M38	1	10	I-Form 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Wheel	Moundros	Inc
Oh, he has him wide open for 20 yards at least plus whatever YAC he can rack up; overthrown. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M38	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	21 (Pen -10)
Schilling(-1) lets his guy upfield in a shot and drags him to the ground, drawing a legit holding flag. The opening provided is a large one that McGuffie exploits for around 20; all for naught.
M28	2	20	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	0
And we're just going to the locker room now.
Drive Notes: End of half, 10-7. My copy of the tape does not contain Michigan's first drive of the second half.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M7	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read veer	McGuffie	8
Sheridan holds the DE outside just a fraction longer than Threet did earlier in the game, springing McGuffie into the second level as Schilling(+1) crushes the LB.
M15	2	2	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	McGuffie	17
Excellent double from Molk and Moosman on one DE and a well-executed scoop by Ortmann(+2) and Dorrestein on the other side; Ortmann peels off and seals the MLB; the other LB has been sucked outside, expecting the stretch. McGuffie zips into the secondary.
M32	1	10	???	???	Run	???	McGuffie	3 (Pen-10)
Miss most of this play for a replay of the previous one. Ortmann(-1) gets called for holding.
M22	1	20	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Triple option dive	Shaw	3
The formation with both RBs to one side of the QB; we have yet to run anything other than a triple option out of this, sure enough: triple option. Decent push up the middle, then Shaw is lost in a wad of bodies. They aren't running any keepers in this game, are they?
M25	2	17	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Hitch	Clemons	Int
A simple seven-yard hitch is thrown hard and to the outside—inaccurate. Clemons reaches for it but can only bat in in the air; intercepted. (IN, 2, protection 1/1.) Replay shows this was catchable-ish.
Drive Notes: Interception, 10-10, 14 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	McGuffie	3
Miscommunication of some sort between Molk and Moosman(-1 each) leaves a DT unblocked. Pretty good push from the left side of the line gives McGuffie a few before he's hurled to the ground.
M28	2	7	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Pass	Improv	Stonum	Inc
Moundros as an H-back. Michigan runs the backside release thing with Moundros shooting back, only this time he's blocking the LB out on him, not releasing. Clemons runs a short out, which is covered; Sheridan scrambles up, then decides to toss one to Stonum, who's sort of open near the sticks. Stonum flat drops it. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M28	3	7	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Hitch	McGuffie	2
Toledo sends six against five blockers; the OL picks up the five they can. Sheridan sees the pressure coming and dumps it off to McGuffie, who is immediately tackled. (CA, 3, protection 2/'2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-13, 10 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M13	1	10	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Flare screen	McGuffie	5
Mathews(-1) completely whiffs on a linebacker, forcing Moosman to attempt to block him from an awkward angle; also Sheridan's loopy little screen is ill-timed, allowing DL to peel back and tackle from behind as McGuffie reaches the mess. (CA-, 3, screen)
M18	2	5	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	Sheridan	1
Sheridan pumps, then decides to bug out, scrambling for a yard. (TA, 0, protection 2/2).
M19	3	4	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Hitch	Clemons	11
They're playing really soft on Clemons in man, so the little hitch here is wide open; easy pitch and catch. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M30	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	QB off tackle	Sheridan	9
Playside DT shoots upfield, getting passed off to Molk. Molk doesn't really get a block but that's because the DT has decided he should go around him, removing himself from the play. Schilling does a good job on the DE; Molk gets a downfield block on the SLB, and Sheridan picks up a nice gain.
M39	2	1	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	McGuffie	2
Good drive block from Dorrestein and a double does in the other DT; McGuffie up into the hole for the first.
M41	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Pass	PA Hitch	Mathews	Inc (Pen+10)
Sheridan hits Mathews on this deep hitch for first down yardage, but his noodly arm means Mathews has already gotten hit by the time the ball gets there. That's incomplete; it is also a flag. (CA-, N/A, protection 2/2) I dunno... this looks like a good play, and thus a bad call.
O49	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	5
Decent, but not great blocks from the line; McGuffie doesn't get that hole between the tackle and the guard/C double on the DT that he wants and so cuts it back behind one DT. Dorrestein is trying to get out on a LB but has no angle and that guy comes in to tackle.
O44	2	5	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Throwback screen	Mathews	-3
This does not fool the WLB in any way whatsoever, and McGuffie runs by him to get a block downfield on the corner. I think that's a -1 for McGuffie; that guy has to get blocked. (CA, 3, screen)
O47	3	8	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Cross	Clemons	Int
Sheridan does a good job of finding a guy, though he sort of panics and looks like he's headed towards the LOS before he pulls out and chucks it. The pass his pretty high, but hits Clemons in the hands, deflecting up and coming down in the hands of a safety. (CA-, 2, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 10-13, 3 min 3rd Q. Both interceptions are off Clemons' hands: this is probably why he was buried on the depth chart until both of our slot guys got exploded.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M33	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Hitch	Mathews	10
Good protection; good throw, and he gets OOB. (CA+, 3, protection 2/2)
M43	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Flag	Clemons	Inc
I don't actually think this is inaccurate despite the fact it lands a couple yards past Clemons; Clemons got bumped off his route and redirected by the corner. (CA, 0, protection 2/2)
M43	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Mathews	5
This one is a really short hitch that gets chopped down in bounds. Not sure if I agree with this call, but it's not like they've got a panoply of choices here. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M48	3	5	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Out	Mathews	Inc
Well wide. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M48	4	5	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Hitch	Mathews	5
This right at the sticks, man, and if this spot is an inch the wrong way it's game over man. (CA, 3, protection 1/1). Toledo now calls a timeout THEY DON'T HAVE. And is NOT PENALIZED.
O47	1	10	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Seam	McGuffie	29
This is about as well as Sheridan can throw this. Looping ball hangs in the air seemingly forever but hits McGuffie between the numbers; he reels it in and a safety blows him up. (DO, 2, protection 2/2)
O18	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Shaw	9
Linebackers are nowhere near the LOS as they're expecting pass and Molk(+1) ends up single blocking and pancaking his defender; other blocks are good, too, and Shaw is met by a safety at aroudn the ten.
O9	2	1	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Throwaway	--	Inc
Sheridan can't find anyone, tosses it out of the endzone. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
O9	3	1	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Throwaway	--	Inc
See above. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: A Precious Joy Forever, 10-13, EOG.

On the missed drive: Michigan got the ball on their own 23 after a kickoff, rushed four times for 29 yards, getting a first and ten from the Toledo 48. From that point: Shaw rushed for two yards, Sheridan threw incomplete, and Sheridan was sacked, then Michigan got a fifteen-yard penalty on top of that. On fourth and 31 from the 31, Mesko had a 66 yard punt to the Toledo 3.

So… probably an IN or TA on the first throw plus an PR or TA on the second with possible minuses on the protection; charting isn't affected much.

Let's just get this done. Chart?

Chart.

As always, the Threetsheridammit chart legend.

STEVEN THREET

Opponent	DO	CA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Utah	1	11	5	1	3	2	1
Miami (NTM)	-	6	4	1	-	2	-
Notre Dame	3	12	5	2	1	-	-
Wisconsin	1	15	9	3	7	2	1
Illinois	3	18	7	3	4	2	3
Toledo	1	6	3	1	1	-	-

More on Threet later. As for Sheridan:

NICK SHERIDAN

QB	DO	CA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Utah	1	11	4	5	-	-	1
Miami	-	4	1	-	-	-	-
Notre Dame	1	2	-	1	-	-	-
Toledo	1	11	2	-	3	-	-

That looks pretty good but many of the CAs were little hitches and stuff like that; Sheridan throwing ten or more yards downfield was an adventure. Also, an incompletion and a sack from Michigan's first drive of the second half are not captured. Also also, both of his interceptions were poorly thrown balls Clemons could not reel in. The chart does not capture how limited the offense is when he's chuckin' and hopin'.

Speaking of?

Yes, Receiverchart:

(remember: 0 is uncatchable, 1 is a circus catch, 2 is a somewhat difficult one, and 3 is a routine one)

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3	0	1	2	3
Clemons	1	-	0/2	4/4	3	-	0/2	6/6
Stonum	-	-	-	1/1	4	0/3	3/3	3/3
Mathews	1	-	-	3/3	6	2/6	4/6	12/13
Hemingway	-	-	-	-	1	0/2	2/2	-
Odoms	-	-	-	-	9	0/1	3/4	19/21
Babb	-	-	-	-	-	0/1	1/1	1/1
Savoy	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1/2
Butler	-	-	-	-	2	1/1	0/1	2/2
Koger	2	-	-	0/1	2	0/1	1/1	1/2
McGuffie	-	-	2/2	4/4	3	-	2/2	15/15
Brown	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3/3
Shaw	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4/4
Minor	-	-	1/1	-	2	0/1	1/2	3/3
Moundros	-	-	-	1/1	2	-	-	1/1

Not much to go around, really, with the 0/2 in Clemons' 2 category the biggest issues. It's hard to blame Clemons for either, really, but I think Avant makes those catches. Or Mathews, actually.

And while we're at it, PROTECTION METRIC: 34/35, Schilling –1.

Hey, that's pretty good, at least, though that number is very low for a full game, indicating Michigan didn't take many chances on long routes. But you knew that already.

Isn't the run-pass distribution on first down downright Debordian?

Yeah, but think about the context, man.

The context?

This year's Michigan team is approaching the problem of what to call on first down from an entirely different perspective than Michigan teams of yore. Michigan of yore would call a blizzard of first down runs against any team they thought they were considerably better than, which was almost everyone, in an attempt to shorten the game or soften them up or prevent big bad events from happening or whatever. This led to a lot of uncomfortably close victories and what must be the country's most bizarre breakdown of close fourth quarter games: as Vijay of IBFC wrote in HTTV 2007, under Carr Michigan was actually more likely to win a game if they had a small deficit entering the fourth quarter than a small lead.

!!!

This year's Michigan team has no illusions it's better than anyone—or it least it shouldn't any more—and just seems convinced that their only chance is to keep away from huge errors and try to get lucky in the fourth. I kind of agree with them on that.

But still…

But still?

Yeah, it has been a long-held tenet of this blog that you should have a close to equitable split between run and pass on first down unless you do one thing much better than the other and Michigan does not. I mean, you're going three-and-out so much when you run on first down that you might as well try to get some big chunks from the passing game.

You've got another but, don't you?

Yes. I'm nearly 100% sure that Threet was hurt going into the game. Notice something in the first half playcalling? Zero QB keepers, and that passing chart above has four screens in it. The rest of it is 3 good to 5 bad, a horrible ratio, and some of those passes were impossibly off target.

Then Sheridan comes in at halftime despite Threet not taking a single hit. Michigan then runs a couple of these QB sweep/off tackle sorts of plays to good effect; these were clearly part of the gameplan. So: protect QB at all costs in first half and remove him for no apparent reason at halftime. This is not someone 100% going into the game.

I don't think the hypothetically stupid playcalling was by choice. I think they had a badly damaged Threet and tried to get away with it, found that they couldn't, and then went with Sheridan.

Heroes?

Yeesh. I though Schilling had a good day blocking, and McGuffie did pick up 105 rushing yards and that last-second seam.

Goats?

Blood damn fate for injuring Threet; Ortmann had a tough day in the run game. Oh, and Carson Butler got on the field for one play and completely whiffed his block. I loled.

What does it mean for the future?

Well, we're *#$&ed without a healthy Threet. Also, the evidence continues to mount that this is just going to be vicious painfestival offense for the rest of the year.

But you knew that already, too.

8/30/2008 – Michigan 23, Utah 25 – 0-1

Every rational thought in your head suggests that the whole walk-on or freshman-the-coaches-are-panicked-about at quarterback, the line of baling wire and the occasional confused chicken, and freshmen everywhere at the skill positions will combine to yield an offense worthy of Yakety Sax, but until you actual see the damn thing in action you can hold out hope it will be otherwise.

We have seen it in action. It could have gone better. At least we have an incredibly direct metaphor all around us:

This program is under construction with a completion date around 2010. This is going to be a tough year. If you’re prone to hysterics you should do everyone a favor, watch something else, and annoy everyone on the Project Runway message boards with your all-caps posts. Get over it.

If you’d told me the final score before the game I would have been disappointed but not particularly surprised and wouldn’t have budged much from the preseason prediction. Unfortunately, a raft of unusual events obscured a much grimmer picture, especially in the first half. That was a near-worst case scenario. The offense was as bad as everyone feared; the defense was far worse than anyone expected in the first half. Without the latter unit’s second-half turnaround, I would be halfway to the Yukon and my new life as a gold prospector this morning. As it is, I think a bowl game is unlikely since it will probably require a 7-5 record.

But I’m here and we can talk about the game some. The best part was the warmups, and I mean that only somewhat sarcastically. Seeing the 100-some men in winged helmets go “HOO HOO HOO” whilst pivoting was a weird kind of thrill, as was the Barwis-led Circle of Death. This is not your father’s Michigan football, (TINYFMF) etc.

The second best part was Rodriguez’s inability to cope with the idea his team sucked. I also mean that only somewhat sarcastically. TINYFMF was best displayed on Michigan’s last play of the first half, when Nick Sheridan dropped back on third and long and lofted a ball on an ICBM trajectory. Everyone in the stadium knew it would be intercepted the moment it left his hand.

Lloyd Carr would have called a fullback dive and punted. Michigan would probably have escaped the first half with a manageable five-point deficit, and the defense and special teams excellence in the second half would have been enough to pull it out. The entirety of halftime that “22” for Utah rankled. That touchdown looked completely decisive.

So maybe that was a stupid call. Having your walk-on hurl a ball skyward is asking for it. But I vastly prefer the expectation your player can come through in an important situation to the fear he won’t. That tendency is probably going to hurt this year, when expecting any quarterback to do anything except soil himself is a bad bet, but when Michigan is good they’ll go through each series with a mind to score points; they should blow the doors off opponents who can’t cope. Carr’s formula was a recipe for 9-3, 9-3, 9-3, 9-3. Rodriguez will go through more swings based on how much talent he has at his disposal. Eventually, this will be a good thing.

There’s not much more to say: they kind of suck. I don’t know who any of them are. I hope they get better.

• Boy, did I hate the 4-3 Michigan started out in during the first half. That’s a guarantee of zone coverage or a hideous mismatch between first-time starters at linebacker and slot receivers. For the most part it was the former, which the first-time starters at linebacker were terrible at, and Michigan got shredded on a wide array of routes designed test the weakest part of the Michigan defense. It failed.
• Do you ever get the feeling people are prepared to criticize in a particular way even if reality conflicts with them? I’ve seen a lot of rabble rabble about “Rodriguez needs to adapt the offense to his players” in the aftermath of a game in which Michigan threw 60% of the time.
• I bet you could have gotten good odds on “boy, I wish Rodriguez had run more” as a common complaint before the game. That was perhaps the most disturbing development, as it speaks to a total lack of faith in the offensive line.
• Stevie Brown was victimized repeatedly, giving up the 50-yard pass on third and twenty that led to Utah’s first touchdown. I think he was responsible for the coverage on the score right before the half. He did jump another endzone route and bat the ball to Ezeh.
• Feagin? I mean… he couldn’t have been worse.
• The holding and pass interference penalties should be set aside in a description of Utah mistakes, as Michigan forced those errors out of the Utes with a torrent of pressure and wild hopeful downfield jump balls. One of these will serve Michigan in good stead for the rest of the season.
• This would be the point during a game coached by Carr where I would bemoan the zone-tipping, ineffective 4-3 Shafer came out in for the first half; this is considerably more difficult when you have scarcely less information about the football team than the actual coaches do. I’m not sure how you’re supposed to get a grip on whether your defense can handle a spread offense in its base set when you’re going up against that in practice every day. Or how you’re supposed to figure out what you can do on offense when everyone’s a freshman and even the folks who aren’t played in a totally different system.

If ever a coaching staff could be forgiven for flailing about with the wrong players, it was Saturday. The halftime adjustments were encouraging.

Who are these guys?

No, seriously. What the hell is going on? Where's Henne? Hart? Long? Is that a running back taking snaps? Do they know you're allowed to take a snap from under center? Who stole my football team and replaced them with Valdosta State?

Exciting new kids in order of projected use this year:

1. Martavious Odoms. He’s the only healthy slot receiver and is the Chad Henne of WRs: a starter from day one in high school. He’s ready-ish to play and will be counted on heavily; may return kicks.
2. Darryl Stonum. Michigan needs someone to put the fear of God into opposing safeties and Stonum’s the guy with that rep. Early enrollment means he’s not as clueless as your average freshman; hell, he’s got just as much time in this system as anyone on the team.
3. Michael Shaw. Slightly ahead of McGuffie because I think they’ll use him in th slot a bit.
4. Sam McGuffie. Run, annoyed man. Run.
5. Terrence Robinson. Injury sets him back, obviously, but once he’s back he’ll rotate into the slot.

Quarterback ack.

It is possible this ends well. Michigan will surround Sheridan with a deep and varied set of receiving targets, and the spread ‘n shred can turn a wobbly-armed but heady passer into Zak Kustok or Bret Basanez. It doesn’t demand the precision howitzer Carr’s pro-style system did. The physical limitations (and senior year injury) that forced Sheridan to walk-on somewhere don’t have to be fatal.

But if we’re being honest with ourselves there’s little chance it starts well. The note of distress coming from practice observers and press conferences is clear, and the scary thing is a lot of the reported problems are things like “throws bubble screens backwards.” (Michigan fans are going to find out how spoiled Chad Henne’s unerring accuracy on screens made them.)

Though practice reports got less alarmed as fall camp progressed—there was even video evidence of Sheridan completing passes farther than six yards downfield—Michigan's best hope here is for something functional, a guy who can throw a bunch of screens and keep the offense moving.

This offensive line can’t be as bad as Notre Dame’s, can it?

This was going to be a “definitely not” until the Zirbel injury and John Ferrara’s move from defensive tackle to potential starter. Now it’s just “probably not.”

There’s a fair quantity of talent slated to start. Schilling, of course, was an OMG shirtless recruit waylaid by injury. He should be much better this year. Moosman and Molk were both four-star sorts. That’s three of your starters with guru approval, and the guys who didn’t get it are both redshirt juniors who’ve seen a series here and there.

Plenty of teams have gotten away with worse outfits. Georgia and Auburn both started multiple freshmen last year and that worked out pretty okay; just because the nearest and dearest line to go through a painful youth movement became Most Extreme Epic Disaster Challenge does not mean this is Michigan’s fate. Whenever it’s dark out and your thoughts turn to Notre Dame’s 2007 season replicated in winged helmets, just remember that Charlie Weis spent fall camp installing a spread option look for one game against Georgia Tech and neglected things like technique or pads. It was coaching malpractice on an unprecedented scale; Michigan won’t go down the same road.

HOWEVA, there are some major concerns. We know these things about Mark Ortmann:

• He was not a big time recruit.
• The coaching staff thought he was clearly worse than a guy (Schilling) who was not ready to play last year.
• He’s the starting left tackle virtually by default.

Unless we’re lacking some critical piece of information like an undisclosed, lingering injury or Ortmann’s sudden improvement, that looks a lot like a recipe for blindside hits galore assuming Michigan ever tries a pass longer than ten yards. Which they may not. But that’s another question.

And then there’s Zirbel injury, which puts Michigan one ligament away from starting a true freshman or a guy who was playing defensive tackle two weeks ago. Even if the line stays miraculously healthy, the lack of confidence in Molk is troubling.

If a couple of guys don’t pan out or, worse, get injured, darkness threatens to warsh over the dude at quarterback.

Will Rich Rodriguez and Calvin Magee be inherently better than Carr and Debord?

Michigan fans have complained for years on end about the predictability of Michigan’s offense. Whenever Michigan replaced its starting receivers, it was a guaranteed run. Whenever a tight end lined up at fullback, it was a guaranteed pass. Fullback shuffles were 90% runs to the side of the shuffle, and the few times it wasn’t didn’t justify the expense in yards and downs expended to launch the surprise.

This differentiates them from zero fanbases nationwide. Hell, West Virginia fans had a field day decrying the “predictable” offense Rich Rodriguez ran after his departure. Seriously:

“i will be glad whenever mcgee is officially gone. his 'i will only call 4 different plays' mentality can suck up in michigan right now for all i care.”

In a way, it was predictable: you run 70% of the time and a hefty chunk of the passes are bubble screens. In another way it obviously wasn’t. Touchdowns don’t score themselves.

Anyone who’s read this blog for a while knows my opinion, and it was best summed up in the aftermath of the Horror:

If every Michigan fan can tell you certain things obviously tip Michigan's plays, what are the chances opposing coaches don't know this? Zero. Everyone knows what Michigan is going to do. This is something we've heard every time a bowl opponent is asked about us for the past half-decade and probably longer. It's an arrogant waste of expectation because you expect that you won't need to fool the other team. It's like playing poker without ever bluffing.

This opinion is apparently shared by many, including current members of the team. This is perhaps the most damning quote I’ve ever read on the topic, and it comes from Brandon Graham:

“Everybody knew exactly what we were going to do. That was like the arrogance of being at Michigan. ‘Our players are better than yours.’ That’s how it was. That kind of got to (players) when it stopped working. The big games, like Ohio State, we would want to show them something we didn’t do during the season. But we’d go out there and do the same thing.”

This thinking is ancient, dating back to Bo and the days of unlimited scholarships. Michigan assumed it was inherently better than its opponents and every game was an exercise choking out the variance so that superiority could show.

It is also the complete antithesis of Rich Rodriguez. This was an opinion expressed earlier:

Rodriguez comes from a wholly different background than Carr, coming up through the ranks at NAIA schools and Tulane and Clemson and West Virginia. Until Pat White showed up he never had a significant talent advantage against the vast majority of opponents. He never, ever had the luxury of lying back and thinking to himself "if we out-execute the opponent we will win," and it shows. He invented a whole new offense and used it to exploit inefficiencies in recruiting. To seal the Sugar Bowl against Georgia he called a fake punt, exploiting inefficiencies in fourth-down playcalling. For the past seven years he has played Moneyball at West Virginia.

To me, the exciting thing about Rodriguez is not necessarily his system but his mindset. He's looking to squeeze out every ounce of expectation, make every resource stretch as far as he can, and now he's been provided resources few other coaches have.

This is the Coal Spoon theory, and it answers this question simply: yes.

Well?

You know, I get emails from time to time complaining about how negative I’m being, but not in a “you’re just incorrigible” way. They mostly complain about the depression induced.

What can I say? For the first time, Michigan is violating several of the preview heuristics: don’t switch a guy at the last second and give him playing time. Don’t completely change your system—not that the change is bad, but it will be painful in the short term. Don’t start a walk-on at quarterback. Have something other than crippled goats backing up your offensive line.

These things are nigh insurmountable obstacles in the quest for a non-ugly offense. There’s just too much that can go wrong (or already has) for the offense to function at an aesthetically pleasing level.

It shouldn’t get anywhere close to the radioactive mess Notre Dame was, or even be the worst offense in the league. The Rodriguez system doesn’t demand that much out of either of the shaky position groups. It does demand that the skill position players be able to beat their guys one-on-one in the open field, and Michigan should have the athletes to do this with regularity.

I think we’ll see an offensive of extremes this year: good or better against teams with shaky athleticism, bad or worse against A-level opponents. Scanning the schedule I see only three or four of those.

One major caveat: the situation at quarterback and on the offensive line is extremely fragile. If a guy goes down or just doesn’t pan out the dropoff as you go back is severe; there is a small chance a couple guys implode and the offense makes a short trip off a cliff.

Stupid Predictions

• People are very excited about Martavious Odoms going into 2009, like Steve Breaston excited.
• Sheridan starts off the starting quarterback, is replaced at some point, but ends the season as the guy.
• Junior Hemingway establishes himself a starter midseason.
• The running back situation involves a mess of players; Minor, Brown, McGuffie, and Shaw all see 100 carries. Brown has the best YPC.
• Michigan has a better offense in-conference than they did last year. (Ninth.)
• Ricky Barnum ends up starting five or six games.
• Michigan is around 50th in yardage.

Quarterback

Rating: 1.

QB	Yr.
Nick Sheridan	So.*
Steven Threet	Fr.*
Justin Feagin	Fr.

The last time Michigan's quarterback situation appeared so dire it was 1995, Lloyd Carr's first year, and the quarterbacks were true freshman Scott Dreisbach and walk-on Brian Griese. Michigan was playing in the "Kickoff Classic" that year against Virginia. Michigan Stadium baked, Dreisbach started, and the team sucked. Down 17-0 at the half, Michigan looked lifeless.

One of the weirdly vivid memories of my life is listening to an affable Virginia fan tell us Michigan was not going to win the game if they kept letting that freshman throw the ball. We nodded in rueful agreement.

He would turn out to be wrong by one Mercury Hayes toe. Dreisbach finished with 374 yards on 52 attempts,* Michigan won, and all that quarterback stuff was quickly forgotten until the next week and the week after and especially when Dreisbach got injured and Brian Griese was called forth from obscurity and inserted into the starting lineup.  This was good in the long term. In the short term, it was brutal:

Name	Att	Comp	Int	Comp %	Yds	YPC	YPA	TD
Brian Griese	238	127	10	53.4	1577	12.4	6.6	13
S Dreisbach	106	56	3	52.8	850	15.2	8.0	3

Michigan quarterbacks combined for 16 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, completed about 53% of their passes, and struggled to crack seven yards per attempt with an All-Star cast of future NFL receivers: Amani Toomer, Jay Reimersma, Mercury Hayes.

So none of that was particularly good but the team didn’t exactly implode. Tim Biakabutuka ran and ran and ran and then ran some more in a 31-23 win over Ohio State and Michigan went 9-4. Not a nuclear waste site by any stretch of the imagination. So… there’s a chance.

This year, your nominal starter is the walk-on and the freshmen appear set to wait in line. Nick Sheridan (left) is the walk-on. He’s the son of Bill Sheridan, currently the linebackers coach for the Giants and for three years a defensive position coach under Lloyd Carr. He was honorable mention all conference in high school. He’s about six foot, maybe six one, supposedly more mobile than the competition but more limited in terms of arm strength. And that’s all anyone knows about him.

What limited intelligence we have from practice reports indicates Sheridan is a typical Northwestern quarterback, noodle-armed but bright and mobile-ish. He’s been more consistent than the competition, throws well on the run, and contrary to rumor can heave the ball farther than five yards, as this video of the “Beanie Bowl” indicates. He could be a non-liability who successfully keeps the heat off the other skill position players, and how’s that for Backhanded Compliment Of The Year?

Sheridan’s main competitor is redshirt freshman Steven Threet (right), who enrolled early at Georgia Tech only to bolt for Michigan when Jason Forcier saw the writing on the wall and transferred. In January the writing reformed itself to read “please come back Jason,” but what can you do? Hypothetical newspaper-bearing time travel guy should stop screwing with Michigan fans and tell Forcier to stick it out.

Threet is a classic dropback artillery piece in the Navarre/Mallett/Grbac mold, 6’5” and ponderous. He was a well-respected recruit, getting four stars from the gurus and landing in the top ten pro-style quarterbacks, but reports from practice have him tentative, erratic, and slow both mentally and physically. In the winter he was lauded as an emerging leader who the team actually liked, unlike that Mallett guy; this has not translated to the field. Sheridan’s likely to struggle at some point and Rodriguez keeps saying he wants “two guys he can win with,” so Threet will see the field at some point. He’s reputed to have a bigger arm and more big-play potential… for both teams.

Freshman Justin Feagin talks a great game. He’s got the meaningless puff quote down cold. See this on Pryor:

"What if he does go to Michigan? Shame on me if I sit back and think he's better than me. If he wants to play quarterback, we'll have to fight each other for the job. If I win the job, then I'll know I beat out the No. 1 quarterback in the nation."

He’s also a heck of an athlete, the small-school player of the year in Florida last year and third in their Mr. Football voting. LSU and Miami offered him as a WR/DB.

Unfortunately, he does not appear to be much of a quarterback at this point. Rodriguez claimed Feagin would “have to make an impression in the first two weeks” if he was going to be a serious candidate for playing time; a recent curtailment of his snaps indicates this impression has not been made. A week or so ago, Rodriguez made it clear he was not an option early: “He's not close to being ready.”

I do have some inside baseball indicating that the coaching staff expects to work him in at some point during the season just to see what he can do; the most likely outcome is a few drives here and there that end poorly and a position swap once Beaver and Newsome hit campus in January.

If David Cone sees the field something has gone very wrong.

Running Back & Fullback

Rating: 4.

RB	Yr.	FB	Yr.
Brandon Minor	Jr.	Mark Moundros	Jr.*
Carlos Brown	Jr.	Vince Helmuth	So.
Sam McGuffie	Fr.	Kevin Grady	Jr.*
Mike Shaw	Fr.	--------	----

Like quarterback, Michigan loses a four-year starter and program icon here. Unlike quarterback, there are six options of at least moderate viability and chances are some player or combination of players emerges into a strong Big Ten starter. Four players were listed as co-starters on the first depth chart; they’re discussed here.

Brandon Minor
2006
Vandy 25-yarder
State's too easy
2007
Zone during  The Horror
ND’s too easy
Sweet spin
Truckin’
Stiff-armin’
Plowin’
MN is too easy

Brandon Minor is your nominal starter. After a few exciting glimpses his freshman year, Minor proved to be just okay in the more extended audition granted by Hart's ankle problems.  Minor was healthy during the spring while Brown was not and is reputed by all to be a demonic worker, so he is the first back in practice. For whatever reason, though, I remain skeptical of his ability. I went back and scoured the UFRs, finding these comments:

Oregon

Minor is an obvious step down [from Mike Hart].

Notre Dame

Brandon Minor missed an obvious read on one of the carries I charted above; I think the running back job is going to be wide open next year. Minor runs really upright and seems perpetually on the verge of getting his clock cleaned; he also clearly lacks Hart's ability to pick through traffic. The spin move on Zbikowski was sweet, though.

Illinois

Both Brown and Minor showed some indication they will be decent to good Big Ten runners next year.

Minnesota

Minor, I thought, was the better of the backs, consistently running with power and picking up YAC.

That's not  entirely helpful when I'm trying to make the case for someone else to start.

Numbers might be: he averaged 4.3 yards a carry, eight tenths of a yard off both Hart and Carlos Brown's 5.1. Even if you hack Brown's 85 yard touchdown against Minnesota down to Minor's long of 46 yards (also picked up against Minnesota), Brown holds a significant edge in YPC.

Minor runs too upright and stiff for my tastes. He's clearly slower than Brown and the fleet freshmen, has little wiggle, and tends to plow over and through defenders instead of trying to avoid them. Sometimes this ends with Minor spectacularly trucking someone; sometimes it ends with Minor taking a wicked shot from a headhunting linebacker or safety.

In the best case, Barwis gives Minor the half-step he needs to get the corner and he’s a poor man’s version of Darren McFadden. In the worst case he’s David Underwood. He must be physically dominant to be effective because he's not going to make people miss much and he doesn't have Hart's remarkable balance. IMO, he gets his fair share of carries throughout the year but is clearly less effective than at least one other tailback and possibly two.

Carlos Brown

2007

Loping vs Purdue

Behind Jake

Tripping over Leman

Nice first down

85-yarder

Carlos Brown has a knack for picking up annoying hand injuries. Last year Brown busted his hand in fall practice and missed the early portion of the season; in spring he cut or broke his finger or something in a “freak weightlifting accident.” I suspect Barwis bit it off and spent the summer growing a replacement in a jar.

He was also the more impressive non-Hart tailback in 2007, deploying his speed to good effect and, as noted, coming out of last season with a Hart-matching 5.1 YPC thanks to the exceptional generosity of Minnesota’s defense.

After his first extended action I summarized him like so:

He seems like the exact opposite of Hart: a guy with questionable vision and little in the way of moves who has the speed to jet into the endzone if you give him a crease (and he sees it). The questionable vision could be due to inexperience -- he spent the spring at defensive back, then broke his hand -- and might develop in the future; Hart-like moves are not likely to. His two slashing touchdown runs were encouraging and he seems much less likely to get decapitated by a charging safety than Minor; he'll have a shot at the job next year. We're likely to see a four- or even five-headed rotation early.

Brown's been moonlighting at quarterback in what must feel like a reprise of his high school career, when he was a quarterback in name only tasked with using his extraordinary athleticism to take Incredibly Surprising Quarterback Draws further than they had any right to go. If Brown does take live snaps at QB, it will be part of a Wildcat (or wild mustelidae) package; he's little threat to throw the ball except as a diversion.

Brown was a big recruit and has the sort of outside speed that Steve Slaton did; I think he’ll end up with the slight edge.

Sam McGuffie needs no introduction. Mixtape ho:

He flips over people for fun. People leap over him for fun. When he leaps over people for fun and there is no fun because people tackle him they post it on Youtube like it’s a big deal. He is an internet phenomenon. If you try to bring any of these things up to him he will scowl at you. His teammates call him “Vanilla Ice,” which no doubt also draws scowls.

I’m on record expecting McGuffie to kick ass:

I'm not one of those who scoffs at recruiting rankings, but their [Rivals’] continued skepticism about McGuffie is puzzling. He has the offers (Michigan, Florida, USC amongst a host of others), the stats at perhaps the highest level of competition available in high school football, and reel after reel of jaw-dropping highlights. He has the fourth-highest SPARQ rating in the history of whatever the hell a SPARQ rating is because he showed up at a combine before his junior year of high school and ripped off a 4.32 40, a 3.83 shuttle -- I'm not exactly sure if my calculations are correct, but I believe this means he finished the shuttle before he started it -- and a 41' vertical leap.

He's a little small, and his his disappointing senior season was injury-wracked to the point where his nationally televised showcase game saw him spinning 180 degrees before contacting tacklers and driving meekly at the feet of oncoming blitzers, but even the skeptical Rivals named him last year's best running back in space and publicly wondered why he was heading for Michigan instead of a school that would spread him all over the field like Wes Welker—white guy, natch—and take advantage of his crazy speed and cutting ability.

Uh, check. He’s nominally first on the depth chart already, and will see time all over the field. It begins.

A second freshman, Ohioan Michael Shaw (video), was listed as a wide receiver on the fall roster but features as a tailback on the depth chart. He was a running back in high school; he figures to spend quite a bit of time motioning to and from the slot.

The hype is building on Shaw because he chose the right time to juke a couple defenders and plow slot-sized freshman cornerback Boubacar Cissoko. The media was there doling out oohs and aahs as appropriate and a practice legend is born.

There’s more to Shaw than proficiency in the “Michigan drill,” though. He hovered just outside the recruiting sites’ top 100 lists and spent the spring tearing up the track until he was banned for transfer-related shenanigans. He is fast. And he is fast. And he is fast. At the Penn Relays, Shaw won the 200 meters and anchored his team’s winning 4x100 and 4x200 relays, causing his coach to break down in tears:

“I’ve been coaching since the ‘60’s,” Coach Waggoner said of his 46.4 anchor, Mike Shaw, “and I’ve coached a lot of guys, but he’s one of the best.”

He is fast.

He is also other things. McGuffie's not the only guy drawing superlative praise from Fred Jackson. Jackson on the nagging injuries picked up by the starters:

"Those two guys right there, I PROMISE you that you stay nicked up too long, it's going to hurt you tremendously,'' Jackson said.

Because Shaw and McGuffie can play right now, he said.

Shaw and McGuffie are two of the most exciting freshmen he has ever coached at Michigan, he continued.

They're Justin Fargas fast, but can cut better.

Fargas-who-can-cut is this program’s Loch Ness monster.

Avery Horn is fast as hell but redshirted last year because he wasn't ready to play in college. He ripped off a couple impressive runs in what passed for the spring game but has received little mention in the fall and seems far down the depth chart. Michigan picked freshman Mike Cox over top-100 instate back Jonas Gray when both attended the Michigan camp; he was a middling recruit with offers from Maryland and BC and will probably redshirt.

Fullback

Both players who saw time return, but the position has changed significantly. Under Lloyd Carr the fullback was a thick-necked ogre tasked with smashing his face into linebackers. He was the target of maybe three or four passes a year and never, ever got to take a handoff (no, BJ Askew doesn’t count).

At West Virginia, Rodriguez deployed a thick-necked ogre who ripped off a 50-some yard touchdown against Oklahoma. Owen Schmitt was the hammer on option dives and an important outlet in the passing game; he touched the ball 59 times last year. Michigan fullbacks, as a unit, had three catches for eleven yards, all of them no doubt on third and long. This is why Rodriguez doesn’t actually have a “fullback.” Rather, he’s got an “MX” back, and he’s got to block and catch and run.

This is a projection based on some practice reports and common sense, but once Kevin Grady manages to process the copious amounts of alcohol no doubt still flowing through his veins, he might be the guy here. Grady doesn’t really fit in with the new offense except as a downhill runner and blocker and now that the "fullback" is a guy who is actually an important cog in the offense he might be amenable to a move, especially if/when it becomes clear that players quicker than he have a death grip on all the tailback carries.

Mark Moundros

2007

Debord Ugh

Crushing Gophers

Mark Moundros and Vince Helmuth are the more traditional options. You can find reasons either has an advantage over the other: Moundros is older and was the starter last year; Helmuth was more highly rated, should improve more quickly, and operated as a battering ram tailback at Saline High. I lean towards Helmuth.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

Rating: 3.

WR	Yr.	WR	Yr.	Slot	Yr.	TE	Yr.
Greg Mathews	Jr.	Toney Clemons	So.	Martavious Odoms	Fr.	Carson Butler	Jr.*
Junior Hemingway	So.	Darryl Stonum	Fr.	Terrence Robinson	Fr.	Mike Massey	Sr.*
James Rogers	So.	LaTerryal Savoy	Jr.*	Mike Shaw	Fr.	Kevin Koger	Fr.

Despite the early departures of Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington to the NFL, Michigan has stockpiled a considerable amount of talent at wide receiver and tight end and the dropoff shouldn’t be severe. There will be a dropoff, though, as no one on the roster save maybe Darryl Stonum can hope to replicate Manningham’s explosive deep routes, and Stonum is just a freshman.

Greg Mathews
Iowa scoop
NW waggle
NW post
2007
Easy ND score
PSU Cross
PSU Something
NW YAC
Pride comes before the fall

Junior Greg Mathews is the most experienced returning player. As a sophomore he was Michigan’s third receiver, catching 39 passes for 366 yards. A YPC under 10 always signals possession receiver and that’s Mathews’ rep going into his first year as Michigan’s primary target. The upside here is Jason Avant, a reliable guy on a variety of short routes with outstanding hands and the strength to get off a jam. (We haven't actually seen the outstanding hands, yet, as Mathews has been reliable but unspectacular in the catching-stuff category, but Avant's reliability was only a theory before Braylon left.)

Mathews is unlikely to be much of a vertical threat, however, and a credible deep threat will be important when it comes to keeping safeties from breathing down Sheridan's neck.

Past Mathews things are uncertain. Four or five players vie for one and a half spots. Sophomore Toney Clemons spent the spring working out of the slot because the only other alternative was walk-on Jim Potempa, a player so obscure that the Michigan Stadium public address announcer messed up his name more than once during his half-dozen garbage time carries last year. With the arrival of the impressive, tiny duo of Martavious Odoms and Terrence Robinson, Clemons is likely to move back to the outside where he belongs... eventually. Robinson's "tweaked" knee, about which more later, leaves Michigan with one credible slot option and that's a true freshman. Expect Clemons to move inside and out regularly; his long term home should be on the outside.

Junior Hemingway

2007

First catch

Junior Hemingway suffered a severe ankle sprain in the fall and remained limited by it throughout fall camp. Though recruiting guru opinions on him varied wildly, Hemingway had a ton of early offers from national powers and turned in a productive senior year. He seemed ahead of Clemons when the two were freshmen, but the new coaching staff hasn't seen him healthy. He may not make a contribution until midseason. The impression I got from the limited time he saw last year and all the recruiting info I gathered is that Hemingway was a version of Marquise Walker, a spectacular leaper and potential jump-ball threat that lacked something in top-end speed.

One player not lacking in top end speed, Darryl Stonum, was Michigan’s highest-rated recruit in the 2008 class. An NFL prototype wide receiver out of Houston, Stonum picked Michigan over USC, Florida, and everyone else. He’s a candidate for immediate playing time after enrolling early and participating in spring practices, and has a top-end ceiling on par with any of Michigan’s terror wide receivers from years past.

Normally the most optimistic projection for Stonum’s freshman year would be something similar to that turned in by Mario Manningham—27 catches, 433 yards, 6 touchdowns—but the early enrollment should help him see the field earlier and more frequently. Forty or even fifty catches is not out of the question.

Stonum’s listed as a co-starter at one outside receiver position with surprise LaTerryal Savoy, who’s seen almost no time in his three years in the program to date. Savoy was a sleeper out of Louisiana with no other major offers and seemed destined for a career of total obscurity until the moment the depth chart came out with his name atop the list. It’s doubtful Savoy’s suddenly become a much better receiver, so the bet here is that once Hemingway’s injury and Stonum’s inexperience subside so will Savoy’s prominence on the depth chart. He could be a Tyrece Butler sort who hauls in 10-12 catches.

Those five will be your main targets on the outside. If there is a severe need Michigan could strip the redshirt off freshman Roy Roundtree, the kid who decommitted from Purdue and set off the whole snake oil brouhaha. He’s gotten a few approving mentions from Rodriguez during his hourly press conferences, but Roundtree is about 6’3” and weighs as much as slot ninjas a half-foot shorter than him. A redshirt seems advisable.

Zion Babb and James Rogers are in hot competition for the title of most egregiously wasted redshirt of 2007; both bounced to and from the secondary, seeing meaningless snaps that did little to prepare them for roles they’re not going to have this year anyway. Neither was  big recruit. Rogers was a high school running back plucked from obscurity at Michigan’s camp; Babb was a middling recruit out of California. Rodriguez hasn’t mentioned either of them this fall and playing time is likely to be sparing. Rogers is reputed to be ahead of Babb.

Slot Receiver

The arrival of Rich Rodriguez brings with it a smurfy new position: slot receiver. In the spread ‘n shred these guys are the targets of all manner of different things that aim to get a little electron-sized bastard in open space against a linebacker or safety: option pitches, bubble screens, reverses, etc. This is all terribly exciting, as Michigan now threatens to have four or five Steve Breastons on the roster at all times. This should be a great boon in the return game; in the context of the offense it provides a ton of YAC opportunities that reduce the burden placed on the quarterbacks.

Michigan had none of these guys on the roster, or even in the recruiting class, until Rodriguez came aboard, but in the brief time allotted him he filled the position with authority. Martavious Odoms is from small-school Florida powerhouse Pahokee. His recruitment was extremely strange. He picked up an early offer from Notre Dame, and some months later he had a truly impressive collection for a 5’8” guy: Iowa, Rutgers, South Carolina, LSU, Oregon, Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, and Rodriguez’s then-home of West Virginia.

Odoms’ reaction to all this was to sit around doing nothing in particular as most of those schools filled up their classes. There was a cursory visit to Auburn, some discussion of USF and a grayshirt offer from Miami—by then so jammed with players they were trying to get Odoms to campus as a track athlete—and then signing day came and Odoms... did nothing. He ended up signing a few days later, and Michigan fans scrambled to find out just who the heck this kid was.

He's small to the point where he only exists on alternate Tuesdays but he's been playing on Pahokee's varsity since he was 14 (he was an eighth grader at the time) and was smoking guys in the state championship game by the time he was a sophomore. Unlike many guys Odoms' size, he's always been a receiver, and few players can claim to have the extensive in-game experience he has. Practice reports have been universally positive, praising his hands, toughness, silky-smooth moves and ability to make the first tackler miss. I go back to what a Floridian high school football veteran and Friend of Blog told me unprompted when Odoms committed:

He's a tough SOB. Small cat, really tough, will remind you of Steve Smith. Very, very fast. I'm a huge Martavious Odoms fan, you'll love him.

Watch out for him; this is one of those guys you see named “Moss” playing for Miami and think to yourself "goddamn why can't we ever have kids like that?" Practice reports are very encouraging; he sounds like a Steve Breaston if Breaston had been a natural-born receiver. He’s listed as the starter in the slot for Utah. You will see plenty of him.

Meanwhile, Terrence Robinson’s recruitment got off to a slow start because a junior-year transfer forced him to sit out 2006; when he saw the field for Klein Oak in 2007 he outrushed, outplayed, and outshone top-100 Texas commit DeShaun Hales. He also did this:

Sweet.

Odoms spent five years at Pahokee smoking opponents and winning state championships while Robinson sat out with a transfer and played quarterback and running back and such; even if Robinson hadn’t “tweaked” his knee Odoms would be the odds on favorite to start in the slot. Robinson will be out for a few weeks and then work his way into the lineup.

Tight End 

Carson Butler
CMU waggle
Iowa cross
Iowa tiptoe
Iowa cross #2
2007
Good block(!)
PSU waggle
NW TD
Purdue waggle
Very bad block
Crossin’

Rich Rodriguez is going to have to use his tight ends a lot more than he did at West Virginia, because he’s got six of them and one has the potential to be ridiculously good as long as he’s not asked to block anyone ever. That fellow is Carson Butler, who came back from Lloyd Carr purgatory to claim the starting tight end spot after Mike Massey’s season-ending knee injury against Northwestern. Butler is the combination of freakish athletic gifts and frustrating mental errors that always gets dubbed “enigmatic” and this preview will be no exception: Carson Butler is one enigmatic mofo.

His promise is obvious. In the Citrus Bowl, he took a tight end screen and loped 65 yards downfield (skip to 2:00) with the bulk of the Florida secondary in pursuit; no one on the Florida team could make up ground and it took a safety with an angle to force him out inside the ten. That is a very fast man in an improperly large body. Properly deployed, he could be an All-American.

Butler’s drawbacks were equally severe, though. He false-starts with frustrating regularity. Asking him to block a pass rusher is asking for a helmet in your quarterback’s ribs. This outing against Michigan State was a typical performance:

Ugly, ugly, ugly, especially on the part of Butler, not only complete fail in pass protection but also the culprit on several run plays that went nowhere and the recipient of two critical penalties, one a stupid personal foul and the other a comically inept holding call on Michigan's final drive.

Is it much of a mismatch when your super-athletic tight end blocks like a 180 pound wide receiver? Not really. Evidently Rodriguez agrees since Butler is listed as an OR with not only Mike Massey but freshman Kevin Koger.

I have no idea what to expect out of Butler this year. He could be an All-American caliber performer (he’s unlikely to get enough catches to be an actual All-American) in a contract year for him. He could lose his job in week two.

Mike Massey, meanwhile, returns from that knee injury. In three years of sporadic onfield action, Massey hasn’t done much except almost make a couple of spectacular catches. He was the tentative starter last year until the injury in the Northwestern game. He seems totally average, a guy who will catch the balls he should and make most of the blocks he should but excel in no way whatsoever.

Freshman Kevin Koger picked Michigan over Ohio State and has been mentioned as someone who could see playing time this fall; he is the third co-starter on the depth chart. The most likely outcome is a smattering of snaps in preparation for a starting job next year.

Martell Webb

2007

Nice block

Martell Webb was Butler’s backup once Massey went down and sometimes the temporary starter when Butler had seriously pissed off the coaching staff; he made no catches and drew no notice in UFRs. He did have an excellent block against Minnesota, for whatever that’s worth. Webb was a nobody recruit when he committed to Michigan, but ended up a four-star to both Scout and Rivals; he’s also that 6’5” basketball player that’s all the rage at TE. He could be pretty good if given the opportunity. Given the surfeit of tight ends on the roster and some reported issues with drops in practice he probably won’t get that opportunity until 2009.

Steve Watson redshirted last year and seems to be way down the depth chart. Sparing playing time at best for him; watch for a potential move to the OL. Brandon Moore has an imposing frame at 6’6” and had been offered by a who’s who of college football programs by the time he committed to Michigan, but has gone totally unremarked upon this fall and seems a likely redshirt. If he fills out like whoah a move to tackle might be a possibility, but in high school he was regarded as a no-block TE with excellent hands.

Offensive Line

Rating: 1.

LT	Yr.	LG	Yr.	C	Yr.	RG	Yr.	RT	Yr.
Mark Ortmann	Jr.*	Tim McAvoy	Jr.*	David Molk	Fr.*	David Moosman	So.*	Steve Schilling	So.*
Perry Dorrestein	So.*	Ricky Barnum	Fr.*	Rocko Khoury	Fr.	John Ferrara	So.*	Dann O'Neill	Fr.

Perhaps the saddest indicator of the potential looming tragedy that is the Michigan offensive line is this: last year this depth chart went three deep. There’s no one but freshmen unlisted this year and, uh… four freshmen in the actual two-deep as hypothesized above.

The line took a hit it could not afford to sustain when certain starter and once upon a time touted recruit Cory Zirbel went down with a knee injury, forcing either David Molk or hastily converted defensive lineman John Ferrara into the starting lineup. Michigan is now one injury away from serious issues indeed.

Tackle

Hold me.

Steve Schilling

2007

Clocking Illini

Steve Schilling is the only returning starter on the line. Unfortunately for Michigan, last year he was frankly bad. There are a ton of mitigating factors—a freshman-year bout with mononucleosis was followed by a shoulder injury that spring, so he was basically being thrown on the field as a true freshman—but bad is bad. Vernon Gholston shattered him into little bits in the OSU game, which saw Shilling rack up a record –12 in pass protection. After the Illinois game he came in for a bit of criticism:

The problems in pass protection have been matched with frequent issues in the run game. One sack and a dangerously batted pass were on him as he failed to contain Illinois DE Doug Pilcher. At the moment, the great hope of the 2007 offensive line, that Schilling and Boren would turn out to be better than the departed Bihl/Riley combo, has not come to fruition. It looks highly unlikely to get there any time this year.

There is the potential for massive improvement here. Practice observers have indicated that Schilling now looks like a bonafide collegiate lineman after being far too small last year. As a freshman starter and former five-star recruit the expectation is he takes a major leap forward. He’d better.

Mark Ortmann draws the unenviable task of attempting to replace the #1 pick in the NFL draft. This is his fourth year in the program and practice reports had him on the verge of starting for the last two seasons, but there was presumably a reason he was stuck behind the uninspiring Schilling last year. This year he’s Michigan’s starting left tackle virtually by default, as there is one other non-freshman tackle on the roster. He could be okay. He could be really bad. We have no indicators either way.

Interior Line

David Moosman slides into Zirbel’s spot at right guard. He’s not from Wisconsin despite this blog’s repeated insistence that he is. He’s from Illinois, and I have inside info that he’s very nice to his GSIs. Moosman was a four-star recruit who picked Michigan over Wisconsin and is entering his third year in a college program, so he could be good.

Dave Molk is a feisty, undersized center from Illinois who was one of only two offensive line recruits in Lloyd Carr’s final Michigan class. He fits much better in this system than Carr’s, as it emphasizes his mobility and places a much smaller premium on size, but Rodriguez made it clear he was battling John Ferrara for a starting job. Two weeks ago Ferrara was a defensive lineman. Crap.

Tim McAvoy saw sporadic time last year at both guard spots due to injury and general lethargy on the part of others. Like Ortmann, he nas stuck behind an extremely uninspiring starter (Alex Mitchell) and doesn’t have much in the way of recruiting hype to fall back on. He’s been a defacto starter since the departure of Mr. Plow; lord knows if he’s going to be any good.

Backups

There are virtually no backups as long as Cory Zirbel's knee injury persists, and the word from Rodriguez is that could be the entire season. Mark Huyge exists, I guess, but he’s a redshirt freshman Michigan snatched away from the MAC. He’s unlikely to be ready. He’s also got a high ankle sprain and will miss a chunk of the season. As mentioned, John Ferrara was whiling his time away at defensive tackle until the Zirbel injury forced a position switch. Ferrara’s never blocked in his life. He may start.

At tackle, Perry Dorrestein is most famous for having his one-point-something GPA outed by the Ann Arbor News; insider buzz has been totally silent on him. He was a decent recruit.

It’s down to true freshmen, then. Rodriguez has specifically said these guys are not ready to play but the situation might demand it of them. Guard Ricky Barnum is the least unprepared. He was a highly-rated Florida commit until Rodriguez wandered by with his snake oil cart and has gotten some public praise; he’s probably the second guy off the bench in the event of issues with the interior line. Rocko Khoury has been garnering praise as a center and will start the season in the two deep.

God willing, four other freshmen will redshirt. Tackle Dann O’Neill was a top-100 recruit and has great upside but is not prepared to play this year. Kurt Wermers and Patrick Omameh would never, ever see the field in a normal year but this is not a normal year and they could wander onto the field if things get dire. Elliot Mealer is out with a shoulder injury suffered in the tragic Christmas Eve crash that killed his father and girlfriend.