jim mora

Eric DeBoer

REMAIN CALM. I am now getting some chatter to the effect that Harbaugh is coming, pending t-crossing and i-dotting. None of it is from a source I would consider rock solid, and all of it comes with an ominous "barring a last second change of heart" disclaimer. Please remain calm.

It feels like warranted optimism transforming itself into e-fact via a game of telephone—I can confidently say that there are people close to the situation who think it is happening, some of them very strongly. Whether they're right is another matter. Harbaugh may get NFL offers that change the equation. Right now Michigan can talk to him all they want; NFL teams would get hit with accusations of tampering if they did so. Everyone, including Harbaugh, is working with incomplete information.

A POTENTIALLY MEANINGLESS STATEMENT WE'LL TAKE AS GOSPEL. Raiders owner Prince Valium on his general manager:

-Q: Have those two wins helped you in your assessment of the football operation? Are you sticking with Reggie McKenzie?

-DAVIS: As I said, I never really said I wasn’t going to keep Reggie on board.

-Q: He’s your guy still, right?

-DAVIS: He is my guy right now, absolutely.

-Q: That means there’s still the possibility of dramatic changes, I guess.

-DAVIS: There are always possibilities for anything.

-Q: What do you think about Jim Harbaugh?

-DAVIS: (Laughs.) It was great talking to him.

McKenzie (not that McKenzie) is coming off an excellent draft, FWIW. Davis seems positive about him but "never really said" and "right now" are back doors that indicate some hesitancy. The upshot for Michigan is that if Oakland is inclined to keep McKenzie, they wouldn't be offering Harbaugh the moon that is full personnel control.

Of course, Oakland could be convinced to throw McKenzie overboard if Harbaugh was interested. Cue rumor:

Oakland preparing for sweeping changes that involve its GM Reggie McKenzie, according to league sources. Mark Davis getting ready to spend.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 14, 2014

This has been a completely useless searchbit. Thank you for your patronage.

OTHER NFL MACHINATIONS. Dolphins coach Joe Philbin is under pressure in Miami, with local reporters asserting that his job "may hinge" on making the playoffs. Philbin's in his third year with Miami, having gone 7-9 and 8-8 in his first two years. They're 7-6 this year and currently trailing the Patriots. If they do lose that game they'll have a very tough road to a bid.

The guy firing Philbin is of course Stephen Ross, Michigan mega-donor. Ross has been rumored to be amongst the heavy hitters putting together a neato financial package for Harbaugh, so a Harbaugh pursuit would be an about-face. Said local reporter says this would happen. At least, I think so. The article is full of seeming autocorrect errors:

The source said Ross would try to upgrade a team that missed the playoffs for a sixth consecutive year by revisiting the idea of hiring Jim Harbaugh. … If the Dolphins cannot get to the postseason, Ross would have work to do and most of the assignment will center on Harbaugh.

What?

Anyway: Ross pursuing Harbaugh would be tricky if Ross wants to get into all the good parties when he comes back to Ann Arbor. If Harbaugh does turn down a generous Michigan offer because he wants to stay in the NFL and that becomes public—probably because Michigan hires someone else—then Harbaugh could end up with the Dolphins without making Ross look that bad. Anything else and not so much. Steve Lorenz reports that Ross gave his word he would not chase Harbaugh to "more than one figure" in the Michigan community.

Given that, if the Dolphins do go hard after Harbaugh you should take that as a sign the dream is dead.

NON-MACHINATIONS? Ian Rapoport says the Dolphins are still not a player for Harbaugh. Rapoport previously reported that M left a meeting with Harbaugh "convinced he wants to be an NFL coach" a week ago, something that is almost certainly not true given the way the search has developed (or not developed) and the steady drumbeat of positive insider chatter. So take it with the appropriate level of certainty.

I do think Rapoport's more likely to be on point when he's talking to NFL teams about what they plan to do than trying to read the mind of Jim Harbaugh. Also:

@dpascoe72 yes i do.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 14, 2014

If Michigan was convinced that Harbaugh wasn't coming, wouldn't Ross 1) know that and 2) being going full guns here?

PLAN B. To my moderate chagrin, it is looking increasingly like Miles is the fallback option. He is definitely a fallback option, and depending on who you listen to (and what time you listen to them) there are somewhere between 0 and 2 guys between him and Harbaugh. Since the guys who could intervene are usually of the Stoops/Mora/Payton variety—longshots—Miles would become the favorite if Harbaugh turns M down.

The heavy favorite: everyone who knows Miles swears up and down he would come with two nanoseconds of the offer. What about 2007? Miles was never officially offered in 2007 and got roped into an LSU extension before Michigan could seriously contact him; with LSU on the verge of playing for a national title and Michigan's interest uncertain Miles had to go with the LSU AD's clever power play. There is no such hold on Miles now, as his team prepares to play in the Music City Bowl.

Why only moderate chagrin? Hey, he's not Schiano or Adddazio.

ON THE OTHER HAND. Webb reports that contact with Miles has not yet been "substantive." The focus is on Harbaugh.

IT COULD HAPPEN

JOE MOGLIA IS ALL YOU NEED TO HEAR. Football Scoop weighed in again, for what little that's worth. Michigan's honchos now "understand that Jim Harbaugh is unlikely to come to Michigan," according to site that previously said M had been turned down flat two weeks ago. Meanwhile, Steve Lorenz reports that the idea that Jim Mora and Dan Mullen have been run by the regents is "total bunk," so that's most of the post.

The rest of it is spent promoting the fortunes of Joe Moglia, the CEO-turned-Coastal-Carolina coach, who is 65 and coaching FCS. (Yes, that's totally different than pumping Bob Stitt.)

While I'd like half of that post to be true (the bits about Mora and Mullen being next options), it's clear that whatever FS gets right about this search will be by accident. This offseason they've already "reported" Bo Pelini to Youngstown State, Bret Bielema to Nebraska, and Lane Kiffin winning the Broyles.

GOING OFF THE BOARD? Ohio State OC Tom Herman is under heavy consideration at Houston. Houston's a good mid-major job that has sprung Art Briles and Kevin Sumlin into the big time, and Herman has a decade of Texas experience to his credit. Houston would be dumb not to offer him the job; Herman would be dumb not to take it. If Houston does in fact go after Herman that'll almost certainly be before Michigan gets down to the coordinator-scouring level. So merph.

Given the Miles chatter this is all likely to be moot anyway.

ALSO OFF THE BOARD. Sportsbook.ag again pulled the Harbaugh bet after more and more Michigan money came in. Last time this bet came up, a commenter pointed out that as online books go, Sportsbook.ag has a D- grade from an industry rating service and is not taking major money on this—it wouldn't take a whole lot to swing those odds.

FOUR WAY TRADE? Bo Pelini for Pitt. Yeah. Yeah man.

Etc.: ESPN's Dan Murphy has the least dismissive national take on Michigan's search that I've yet seen.

Head  Coach, UCLA
Age	53
Exp.	3rd year
Record	28-11
Previous Jobs
HC @ Seattle	2009
DB/AHC @ Seattle	2007-08
HC @ Atlanta	2004-06
DC @ San Fransisco	1999-03
Playing Career
LB/DB, Washington, 1980-83

These again. We're skipping Harbaugh because it's not like you need to be told about Harbaugh. In the event M does hire him, he'll get one.

These are in approximate order of personal preference.

Previously: Dan Mullen.

Jim E. Mora is the son of Jim "Playoffs?!" L. Mora, and as a result joined the nepotism-friendly ranks of NFL position coaches soon after he graduated college. After a decade as a DBs coach he broke through as the San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator, parlaying that into two brief, unsuccessful stints as an NFL head coach.

After the second—a one-year gig with the Seahawks after which he was thrown overboard for Pete Carroll—Mora was out of coaching for two years. When UCLA tapped him for their head coaching job, Bruins Nation was wroth. Bruins Nation is always wroth but at the time it seemed like they had a point. Mora looked like a guy who'd never have gotten anywhere without his father's name and seemed a particularly poor fit for college, what with his single year as a Washington grad assistant. The motivation appeared to be "he's kind of like Pete Carroll."

But it's worked rather well. Mora's led the Bruins to three 6-3 Pac-12 records in three years, had a 10-3 2013, and hasn't won fewer than nine games. This is a considerable step up from Rick Neuheisel (21-29 in 4 seasons), Karl Dorrell (35-27 in 5 seasons) and even nominally successful Bob Toledo, who followed up two top-ten outings in the late 1990s with a string of mediocre teams and finished his career 49-32. Mora's three years are the most successful UCLA has had in 15 years, and you have to go back to Terry Donahue's mid-80s heyday to find anything definitively better.

So he's plausible. But how good have these seasons actually been, and what happens post-Hundley?

[After THE JUMP: bad NFL defenses, excellent recruiting, and stealth spread.]

THAT'S THE SPIRIT. User "Number 7" on the correct way to take all information:

1.  All good news is good news.  (Because it's good news.  Duh.)

2.  All bad news is good news.  (Because it's probably just a smokescreen, because timing.)

and, thanks to this,

3.  No news is good news.  (Because also timing.)

Don't forget "4. In case of 2, annihilate the messenger."

ON HARBAUGH'S INTEREST LEVEL. I like it when NFL guys fire off things that I know aren't true, because then I can rail against 'em. It provides a level of certainty that's rare in any coaching search, and especially this one featuring a primary candidate who's employed until the end of December.

So: I know that the Michigan end of things referred to here…

The University of Michigan has reached out to #49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, sources say. U-M left convinced he wanted to be an @NFL coach

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 7, 2014

…certainly does not think they're going to have to move on, at least not to the point of being "convinced" about anything. There was a meeting of some variety—executed slightly better than Jeremy Foley's—but the aftermath of it has not seen any lack of pursuit or increased focus on guys other than Harbaugh. Since Michigan didn't advertise it to the nation, we can't be certain exactly who was involved. I've heard it was high-level, possibly a Hackett-Harbaugh face-to-face.

I don't know what's going to happen, but the NFL-facing sources have been so strident about things that I know are not true multiple times that I take every new report from them with a grain of salt. If they end up being right it's not going to be because they're super plugged in.

ALSO HARBAUGH. Heard that he took in the OSU game with a bunch of former teammates who were asking him to fix things, to which he said (paraphrased) 1) you'll have to wait a bit here and 2) I'll have to get paid like a top five college coach.

The upshot of the first bit: Harbaugh isn't going to to anything that would be seen as abandoning his team, even as their playoff odds get extremely long. Don't expect something until the 28th, if Michigan is still waiting then.

The upshot of the second: I don't think we're talking Godfather money here, but something approximately Saban/Meyer yes. This was apparently the subject of a brief tug-of-war at the AD/prez/regents level when Schlissel balked at the idea and the regents were like "no, actually, this makes sense because X and Y." They are good to go for compensation, with donor aid.

UNLESS! That is, unless Harbaugh gets canned before the season's over. That would be completely nuts on San Francisco's part, but guys who cover the team are broaching the idea:

With a trip to Seattle coming Sunday, where the 49ers haven't won since 2011, before Russell Wilson was drafted, there's a reasonable chance Harbaugh doesn't last the season.

The precedent is Harbaugh's predecessor Mike Singletary, who was fired in Week 16 of 2010, after San Francisco was eliminated from playoff contention. That year, the Seahawks won the NFC West going 7-9.

If they're so inclined Michigan could step in and save the 49ers a hunk of money. With Harbaugh's contract an asset, it's unlikely he gets fired-fired; SF would probably not want him across the Bay and if so would want to get at least a mid-round pick out of it. Speaking of across the Bay…

MARK DAVIS IS A ROMULAN
DON'T WORK FOR THE ROMULANS BECAUSE THEY'LL EVENTUALLY ENSLAVE YOU AND PUT YOU TO WORK IN THE DILITHIUM MINES OF PENTAX IV, THAT'S MY MOTTO
SHUT UP, IT'S A GOOD MOTTO
AM I MINING UNTIL I DIE ON A ROCK IN THE DEMILITARIZED ZONE? NO? QED.

THIS BETTING MARKET IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. After pulling their Harbaugh prop over the weekend, it returns with the Raiders a heavy favorite:

Harbaugh coaching odds opened OAK 5-6 Other NFL Team 2-1 Does Not Coach 5-2 SF 6-1 Michigan 6-1 Other NCAA Team 15-1 http://t.co/wgXQWIYuj0

— Sportsbook.com ® (@Sportsbook_com) December 8, 2014

And then a heavier one:

Re Harbaugh 2015 Odds...within minutes of tweeting out the new odds we took heavy action on Oakland Raiders so moved them from -120 to -200

— Sportsbook.com ® (@Sportsbook_com) December 8, 2014

That wild swing is likely because of the weekly NFL reporter scoffing and the fact that Harbaugh talked to Raiders owner Prince Valium after San Francisco lost to his team on Sunday. I'm a little skeptical Harbaugh's going to take the worst possible NFL job, one that might not even be in Oakland next year, but that ain't good. On the other hand:

.@Sportsbook_com If he's 6-1 to coach San Francisco next year, then what is "Raptured following glorious victory over Lizard People?" 8-1?

— Bryan Mac (@Bry_Mac) December 8, 2014

And they just dropped the M odds to 4-to-1 as money comes in on them once again. Woo!

PROPS TO NFL LLOYD CHRISTMAS, THOUGH. This is a good quote:

What did they talk about? I asked Davis, who laughed and said:

“I told him, ‘You stole our dysfunction!” Davis said. “‘That’s supposed to be our thing!’”

THE PLAN B TIER. With everyone laser-focused on Harbaugh there continues to be little clarity as to who might be the backup plan. Les Miles said he had not been contacted by Michigan, and I continue to believe that he's facing too much internal opposition to get a serious sniff.

Sam Webb has had a couple posts on Greg Schiano and Steve Addazio in the last couple days, names that alarm and boggle.  The most recent was at least about how Addazio is a more likely candidate than Schiano; I choose to interpret that information as "we do not want Greg Schiano so passionately we would choose to hire Steve Addazio over him." Corroborating is Steve Lorenz, who says all the noise about Schiano has come from his end($), with no Michigan folk mentioning his name.

That leaves Addazio's presence. Bald Brady Hoke makes no sense as any kind of candidate except to your crazy old coot grandfather who has all his savings in gold and doesn't trust the FDIC. Unfortunately, we have a lot of those hanging around. FWIW, I haven't heard one thing about him.

I don't think anyone has a strong grasp on who Plan B is. Rivals is pushing guys like Sean Payton and Bret Bielema; meanwhile on WTKA this morning Sam was talking about Jim Mora. I have heard diverse and sundry names, none of which stand out from the crowd. Clint Brewster's five guys not named Harbaugh or Miles seems like a realistic baseline: David Shaw, Mora, Dan Mullen, Kyle Whittingham… sigh… Addazio.

kind of looks like Scott Bakula

PINKEL? Seeing chatter about Mizzou's Gary Pinkel, but… like… okay remember what happened when Nebraska hired Mike Riley? Gary Pinkel is a bit like that. He's obviously got a much better track record than Riley what with his five ten-win seasons in the last eight years, but he would be 63 by the time he coached one game at M. By the time he got his guys in here he'd be ready to retire.

Pinkel may be an excellent coach, but is he that much better than a guy a decade younger than him? Coaching transitions suck; do you want to guarantee yourself another one in 5-7 years?

HE DOES THIS EVERY YEAR. One of the most attractive candidates on the B tier is on the verge of signing an extension:

Scott Stricklin expects a contract extension for Dan Mullen soon.

"Dan, in his defense, his focus has been recruiting, being in bowl prep," Stricklin said. "But I'm optimistic we can get that wrapped up pretty soon."

Ah but there's a  catch with the headline here:

Mississippi state law doesn't allow for a state employee's contract to extend more than four years. In each of the five previous seasons Stricklin and Mullen have come to an agreement. This year appears no different.

Iowa fans envy Mississippi State law so hard right now. But anyway: because of this law MSU has gone back to Mullen every year for a pro forma extension. That statement from the AD is based on hope and expectation and not nearly as meaningful as it would be otherwise.

There's been a bare minimum of Mullen chatter aside from some national guys on Scout saying he would jump if given the opportunity, so for whatever (probably bad) reasons are out there he does not seem like a likely option if Harbaugh falls through. That makes no sense to me, nor big chunks of the coaching fraternity. It is what it is. I'm still hoping this apparent lack of interest is because there is no serious interest in anyone not named Harbaugh just yet.

nope

THIS, HOWEVER, IS THE END OF BUTCH. Butch Jones gets extended to 2020 at $3.6 million a year(!). In two years at Tennessee he's 11-13 and his best win is likely over South Carolina this year. Recruiting's going in the right direction, but as Hoke demonstrated that's not always enough.

In any case, that's enough to knock Jones off the Plan B list.

Etc.: Oregon State contacts Hoke. Note that they have not contacted Schiano. In Oregon State's opinion we would be downgrading if we hired Greg Schiano. Baumgardner column.