Wife day. Also a hit for "non sequitur" on google image search.
6.81 – New Hampshire: 5.50, UNLV: 5.79, Toledo: 6.33
|FOLLOWING THE APPEARANCE OF A GUY IN A GOAT MASK, FOUR DUDES FROM 2009 SAID THINGS THAT ARE MOSTLY TRUE, ONE OF THEM DOING SO IN A DICKISH MANNER. THUS WAS THE INTERNET WRITTEN.|
6.39 – Temple: 4.76, Purdue: 4.74, Michigan State: 3.58
6.85 – UCF: 7.21, James Madison: 5.30, Louisiana-Lafayette: 5.68
4.01 – Towson: 5.61, Maryland: 7.06
That is a Michigan's offensive output in yards per play in four games, versus what our opponents' opponents posted. You might say from this that we're 0.39 yards per play better than a mean offense that consists of New Hampshire, UNLV, Toledo, Temple, Purdue, MSU, UCF, James Madison, La-Lafayette, Towson, and Maryland. You might say that's not very good. That's how bad Ron Utah says it is. He also says the offense was actually pretty good except against UConn, and the defense has been alright except against Akron. When you put it that way…sorry it doesn't count if you're going to go "Screw it: Denard" against Akron.
Let's have bronxblue talk about the feast-or-famine offense and depress us further:
For better or for worse, though, this is probably the best fans can hope for this outfit during the conference slate: a depressing number of minimal gains punctuated by some massive runs from Gardner as well as Fitz when he is able to make the first 2 or 3 guys miss.
|This Non Sequitur is a non sequitur. Or is it?|
Fortunately we are now entering the Big Ten slate, and an offseason did nothing to stop the Big Ten from being Big Ten!!! Here we are against the spread the last three seasons along with the two rivals:
Team 2011 2012 2013 Michigan 8-4-1 6-7 2-2 Ohio State 6-7 7-5 3-1 Michigan State 10-4 5-8 2-2
I updated his numbers since that diary was written a week ago. He tracks the whole conference but I was low on space before the jump. Look on the bar later today and you'll probably see the new one.
As always I recommend you read ST3's Inside the Box Score except I'm not going in there again to pick out a quote for you because there's a flatscreen with the UConn game at the top of it and my doctor has told me not to look at any more TVs with the UConn game on them for awhile. Ditto: Turnover Analysis.
Etc. A lineup of Big Ten offenses by avg. points goes 1) OHIO STATE!!!, 2) a crowd, 11) lolMSU, 12) LOLOLOLOLOLPURDUE!!!
[Jump so you can scroll to the moment of zen, which is all you want to see right now, and not what people were arguing about on the board].
I'm gonna Akron this column today since we're sending the final PDFs of Hail to Hoops and Hockey to the printer. The contents (click to make it readable):
Actually we had to cut the 2nd Bartelstein article today
If you don't know what Henri* is doing in the upper-right corner you didn't follow hockey so much last year. If you did follow hockey last year you probably have strong opinions on goaltending. HTTV contributor MGoBlueline put together a neat diary this week trying out the "quality start" metric they use in baseball for hockey goalies. He gives them out for having a save% better than the DI average, i.e. a start that gave your team a chance to win. My quibble: it's justification of feelings-ball (-puck whatever).
|Racine's year to MGBL: 12 quality starts, 10 non-quality, 5 cheap wins, 2 wasted quality starts. [Paul Sherman, Michigan Daily]|
The problem with any gamesmanship stat is this: have you ever met a goalie who ever liked any goal going by him in any situation ever? It makes sense for pitching because it's possible to surrender a run to get an out, a pitcher's most important currency; for goalies the currency is time. What you're measuring is consistency, which is useful so long as you remember that's what you're measuring (and that we wouldn't be having this conversation if Racine posted any shutouts last year).
While we're being realistic, alum96 wrote a board post that got diary-bumped that compared the recruiting profiles of Michigan's defensive line to those of Ohio State. His metric for guys is the quality of offers—Michigan's were mostly regional while OSU's guys mostly had Alabama offers and plenty more power programs after them.
True, and that's a big part of why Michigan is hard after the top DL recruits in the country right now. If you take away the Heininger Certainty Principle Michigan's DL looks really thin; since pass rush is more of a talent thing it should be no surprise that the deficiency in recruiting stars is most apparent there. But then Ohio State's line is just ludicrously stacked right now—Michigan doesn't need to get 8 guys Saban wanted badly to get to good.
[Jump for the Weeklies, Best of the Board and some badly needed zen]
ppToilet’s post-game version of Monumental’s wallpaper
It’s been nearly a week and I’m not sure I’m back on a normal sleep schedule yet. I had to shake down Ace for our review copy of NCAA 14 back, change Devin’s number to 98, then go Michael Vick on computer defenses for hours because I wasn’t quite ready to stop watching that happen. This apparently is happened to bronxblue as well…aw hamburgers Brian already quoted that part. Here then’s a totally different stanza from this masterpiece:
Worst: QB Vision Cone still in experimental mode
[Funchess and Butt] are young and should improve as the season comes along (especially Butt, who appeared to drop and/or run out of position for a couple of balls), but Gardner’s passing cone seems a bit skewed toward Dileo and Gallon and that could very well catch up to him as teams adjust or, knock on wood, one of them gets hurt. For as much as I love the idea of this team’s leading receivers both being eligible for the Pomeroy Award, that would feel like a massive waste of talent at other positions on the field and, frankly, counter-productive to this team’s maturation this year and beyond.
|Brian is like 6’2” so H2V must be a big guy.|
I disagree with both bronx and ST3 (in his weekly inside the box score) that the running game was effective at taking pressure off the passing. Brian already UFR’d what I saw: one big Gardner run that made the stats nice, and Fitz doing subtle things to screw with ND’s linebackers when they had him dead to rights. The particular brilliance of Gardner and Borges and Gallon and Dileo and Toussaint in this game was they managed to put up 41 points without the running game being something the defense had to cheat to. Borges picked his spots well because there wasn’t much to be had, Gallon hauled in catches while wearing cornerbacks who could be aggressive because there was help behind them, and Dileo threw his defender on his TD by doing a high-speed luau in the end zone.
More in ND postgame: HAIL 2 VICTORS did the Sports Power Weekends thing and wrote up his glowing review—Jared’s a client and I sat with him at the game so obvious bias here but, yeah, there’s a reason he’s our guy. Jamie Mac went through the recent history of favorites in this series. Brhino went through his favorite memories of the definitely-not-a-rivalry (why is Ismail in there?!?).
[Diarist of the Week and Best of the Board after the jump]
TONIGHT! See you there, now with free food (enough for 50 people).
The MGoBlog equivalent of college football is the Diaries. Nobody there has been drafted to write what they're told. Nobody there gets paid to do it. You'll find legends like MCalibur and ST3 and Enjoy Life and Six Zero and bronxblue frequenting the same threads you do. This is a place where TRADITION means something, man. For those who are new to the extra content I'll use this week to introduce some of the regular things you find there:
The Six, by Mathlete: Okay sometimes we pay these guys under the table—what, you prefer we lose this guy to the SEC? Michigan's 7.0 points per red zone trip is ridiculous. Stray thought: if Michigan has the most effective guy ever at scoring from three yards out, does that change the math of going for two? Mathlete also had a LOT of dumb punts of the week to pick from (including two by MSU). Enos cowardly kicking a field goal after their false start didn't make the cut because it wasn't a punt.
Turnover Analysis, by Enjoy Life: This one is always short and important; he breaks down the turnovers for and against by situation so you can see how much they're really affecting the game, e.g. the arm-punt doesn't hurt as much as giving the opponent the ball inside your five yard line.
Cloud of Dustdate, by Daniel: The newest weekly will help us sort out the running backs. Charting the runs is a really nice touch. Maybe make 3rd and short and inside the 5 yard line runs red in the charts so we know when it's bulldozer time.
First some housekeeping things:
One: Meet the new tshirts:
The chicken one is a LIMITED EDITION we're printing just for this game, since afterwards there won't be any more of the cluckers around to show it to. We will be collecting orders and shipping out on 9/3. After 9/3 we will print limited run extra but then when we are out we are out, so get on that now. Also recommended: bringing rubber chickens to that game (we're not responsible if they get confiscated.)
Two: Reminder: Next Friday at MGoTailgate (on Berkeley across from the stadium), free beer, meet Marlin Jackson and others, learn things, be social.
On with the show.
There are just…
…and-a-half hours until Michigan football. As such the users have gone into their regular pre-season epic content production mode. Let's just get right to it starting with Diarist of the Week and personal favorite MCalibur.
Wait, first let's do Things You're Not Allowed to See. The first rule of Fall Camp is what happens in Fall Camp stays in Fall Camp, unless some dude spills the beans to his friend and he puts it in a diary and we confirm things like Garder==awesome, Fitz==awesome, Butt==feasible in a Funchess-last-year kind of way, OL looks like 1997's, DL depth charts are deep, Wilson is still learning, kicking==good.
Also the first rule of Mott Scrimmage is what happens at Mott Scrimmage stays at Mott Scrimmage (unless someone writes it up as a Diary that pretty much saw everything I saw). Speaking of scrimmages reshp1 went and UFR'd everything from the scrimmage featured in Countdown to Kickoff last week.
Also also the first rule of Camp Michigania is what happens at Michigania is really boring and I don't want to hear it. Anyway I can already see everything you did because it's on your kid's activity bling:
Yes, Lizzie has been cited for improper logo use and will serve a three-game 'timeout'
Wait, Lloyd? Okay I'm sorry; tell me tell me tell me tell me!!!! Now on to MCalibur.
[…after the jump. Also after the jump: Gardner footwork analysis, Dave Brandon's rape noodle, and other stuff]
Another reminder: first-ever MGoTailgate on the Friday night (Sept 6) before Notre Dame. We'll be at the MGoPatio on Berkeley Street (second house on the right coming from the stadium), gathering at 7pm and Marlin arriving for a Q&A at 8.
Now onto the user content, where Denard still exists, although in weird colors:
"Superman never wore black." –Lois Lane
DGDestroys put every Robinson play from the Jacksonville/NYJets preseason game into that enjoyable but sad-in-the-same-kind-of-Johnny-RBUAS-way-that-Mike_Hart's-face-on-the-Colts-was-sad video. Also weird: David Harris with a late hit on Denard. Somewhere out there is an imaginary guy I argued with a lot in 2010 who reads something into that. I still hate that guy.
It's on-topic season again. How do we know? Because the diaries section is back to producing content on a level that Brian has to usually pay us to write. All Stars making their triumphant return this week include MCalibur, Eye of the Tiger, and ClearEyesFullHart.
|Johnny Pachelbel, offensive coordinator
for the Nuremberg Baroques
Let's start with MCalibur because he uses all the same references I know, starting with Canon in D, a classical chord arrangement you probably know from attending weddings or, like, half of all songs ever written.* This is all a setup for his new metric, an expectation of wins based off net yards per game and turnover margins. Significantly, Ohio State was the extreme outlier, winning four+ more games than the 7.8 they should have by their yardage and turnover margins. And this happens to them a lot. Michigan was a game better, Michigan State two games worse. Notre Dame, Nebraska and Northwestern won two more games than they should have.
Thing: the seven teams in his study whose defense was their better unit last year (ND, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, MSU, Iowa) were a net –2, while the six (OSU, Neb, NW, PSU, Purdue, Indiana) whose offense was its better unit were a net +7. Sample way too small but it doesn't say much for "Defense wins championships." I also compared special teams (by both FEI rank and field position rank) of over- vs under-performers and there was zero correlation there. Strength of schedule didn't explain it either (Michigan had the 3rd best SOS and finished +1).
Eye of the Tiger reprised his "Tea Leaves" prediction from last year. Last time it was "which Star Wars episode will we be?" This time it's "Which Song of Ice and Fire Novel?" ranging from the one where all the kings are finally waging war and surviving sieges to the one where GRRM just can't get over how useless nipples are on a breastplate.
[Jump for Diarist of the Week, Best of Board, Zen]