coaching fiasco 2011
xkcd / Hoke pointing at xkcd / EDIT: which means you should click on it dammit so you will get the point!
This morning His Dudeness posted a throwaway discussion topic for the board comparing Rodriguez's 2009 recruiting to Hoke's 2012. This was taken by some as an attempt to reopen 2008-'10 wounds but really it's another "how many ways can we talk about how awesome our 2012 recruiting is going?" (So so awesome). Anyway this started as a reply to fisk of that thread and ended up at 2,000 words plus charts. Hi, I'm Misopogon, have we met?
It's been almost 200 days since Hoke took the job. That's not much to go on when trying to judge a coach. Basically there's 1) his previous resume, 2) the process of how he was hired, 3) how he built his staff, 4) how he integrates into the program, and then 5) a few months of recruiting. I literally wrote up the first four then figured what the hell would we want to go over that again, so let's skip right to recruiting.
Finishing the Class of…
Rodriguez additions to Class of '08:
Name | Pos | State | Stars | RR | Pos Rk | Nat Rk | State Rk | Rec'd By |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael Shaw | RB | OH | 4 stars | 5.9 | 7 | NR | 6 | |
Taylor Hill | LB | OH | 4 stars | 5.8 | 21 | NR | 16 | |
Terrence Robinson | RB | TX | 4 stars | 5.8 | 9 | NR | 34 | |
Ricky Barnum | OL | FL | 4 stars | 5.8 | 5 | NR | 37 | |
Roy Roundtree | WR | OH | 4 stars | 5.8 | 44 | NR | 17 | Bruce Tall |
Justin Feagin | ATH | FL | 3 stars | 5.7 | 41 | NR | 71 | |
Martavious Odoms | WR | FL | 3 stars | 5.7 | 71 | NR | 77 | Rod Smith |
Patrick Omameh | DE | OH | 2 stars | 5.1 | NR | NR | NR | Bruce Tall |
Hoke additions to Class of '11:
Name | Pos | State | Stars | RR | Pos Rk | Nat Rk | State Rk | Rec'd By |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Barnett | TE | TX | 4 stars | 5.8 | 14 | NR | 32 | Jeff Hecklinski |
Raymon Taylor | ATH | MI | 4 stars | 5.8 | 14 | NR | 6 | |
Antonio Poole | LB | OH | 3 stars | 5.7 | 26 | NR | 20 | Mark Smith |
Frank Clark | LB | OH | 3 stars | 5.6 | NR | NR | 52 | |
Thomas Rawls | RB | MI | 3 stars | 5.6 | NR | NR | 19 | Fred Jackson |
Russell Bellomy | QB | TX | 3 stars | 5.5 | NR | NR | NR | |
Tamani Carter | DB | OH | 3 stars | 5.5 | NR | NR | 60 | Mark Smith |
Keith Heitzman | DE | OH | 3 stars | 5.5 | NR | NR | NR | Greg Mattison, Mark Smith |
Matt Wile | K | CA | 2 stars | 5.3 | NR | NR | NR |
This is unfair to judge the coaches against each other. Rodriguez was hired in November and was taking over a Citrus-bound program with a retiring Hall of Fame coach, while Hoke was hired in the middle of January after a blowout Gator loss and following a fired guy. Rodriguez had less time than would have been optimal given the breadth of his transition, but it was no more of a transition than Hoke faces, and RR got a good two months, including the all-important December period, to bring the current class home.
The recruiting is reflected in that. Other than bringing Hill from W.Va., Rodriguez mostly grabbed guys to fit his offensive system. Shaw's a speed-back, T-Rob, Roundtree and Odoms were slot receivers, Barnum and Omameh were the kind of agile offensive linemen who fit best in zone blocking, and Feagin was a last-minute consolation prize when Pryor decided he'd get more out of attending Ohio State. Hoke on the other hand found a handful of Michigan and Ohio State Sad Joshes (Clark, Carter, Heitzman, Rawls, Poole, Bellomy and Taylor), at positions of great need, replaced the kicker lost in the transition, yanked the requisite Purdue recruit (Bellomy) to ensure Danny Hope stays petty, and pulled in a last-minute coup on a national tight end.
Both did okay, not fantastic. Hoke got a kicker back, which was a big deal, but needed to flip someone's 5.9+ OT and pick up another good-to-great linebacker to avoid scary depths at that positions starting in 2012; RR's failure to get more help at defensive back (Carr had Brandon Smith, J.T. Floyd, and Cissoko) would haunt him the rest of his Michigan career (nobody planned on losing 2/4 LBs by next summer). Oh, and, ahem, quarterback.
Recruiting the Class of…
Rodriguez 2009 recruits as of July 26, 2008:
Name | Pos | State | Stars | RR | Commit'd | Pos | Nat | State | Rec'd By: |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
William Campbell | DT | MI | 5 stars | 6.1 | Oct. 2007 | 5 | 26 | 1 | (Carr's staff) |
Justin Turner | DB | OH | 4 stars | 6.0 | Mar 28 | 3 | 35 | 1 | Bruce Tall |
Bryce McNeal | WR | MN | 4 stars | 6.0 | May 1 | 10 | 75 | 1 | Tony Dews |
Kevin Newsome | QB | VA | 4 stars | 5.9 | Apr 24 | 4 | 163 | 9 | Fred Jackson |
Jeremy Gallon | ATH | FL | 4 stars | 5.9 | Jun 05 | 11 | NR | 31 | Rod Smith |
DeQuinta Jones | DT | LA | 4 stars | 5.8 | Jul 21 | NR | NR | 10 | Jay Hopson |
Shavodrick Beaver | QB | TX | 4 stars | 5.8 | Apr 29 | 8 | 206 | 24 | Rod Smith |
Fitz Toussaint | RB | OH | 4 stars | 5.8 | Apr 18 | 8 | NR | 14 | Tony Gibson |
Michael Schofield | OL | IL | 4 stars | 5.8 | Jun 16 | 18 | NR | 6 | Scott Shafer |
Teric Jones | RB | MI | 3 stars | 5.7 | Mar 29 | 37 | NR | 12 | Tony Dews |
Isaiah Bell | LB | OH | 3 stars | 5.7 | Mar 31 | 26 | NR | 27 | Tony Gibson |
Hoke 2012 recruits as of July 26, 2011:
Name | Pos | State | Stars | RR | Commit'd | Pos | Nat | State | Rec'd By |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Kalis | OL | OH | 4 stars | 6.0 | Jul 10 | 4 | 18 | 1 | Greg Mattison |
Royce Jenkins-Stone | LB | MI | 4 stars | 5.9 | Apr 16 | 7 | 87 | 1 | Fred Jackson |
Erik Magnuson | OL | CA | 4 stars | 5.9 | Jun 10 | 8 | 34 | 6 | Dan Ferrigno |
Blake Bars | OL | TN | 4 stars | 5.8 | Jun 26 | 34 | NR | 6 | Mark Smith |
Joe Bolden | LB | OH | 4 stars | 5.8 | Apr 29 | 16 | NR | 11 | Greg Mattison |
Pharaoh Brown | DE | OH | 4 stars | 5.8 | May 07 | 20 | NR | 17 | Greg Mattison |
Terry Richardson | DB | MI | 4 stars | 5.8 | May 19 | 18 | NR | 4 | Greg Mattison |
James Ross | LB | MI | 4 stars | 5.8 | May 2 | 4 | NR | 3 | Fred Jackson |
Tom Strobel | DE | OH | 4 stars | 5.8 | Jun 10 | 18 | NR | 14 | Greg Mattison |
Jarrod Wilson | DB | OH | 4 stars | 5.8 | Jul 8 | NR | NR | NR | Greg Mattison |
Ben Braden | OL | MI | 3 stars | 5.7 | Mar 24 | 59 | NR | 9 | Greg Mattison |
Devin Funchess | TE | MI | 3 stars | 5.7 | Apr 22 | 17 | NR | 6 | Fred Jackson |
Allen Gant | DB | OH | 3 stars | 5.7 | May 31 | 22 | NR | 29 | Al Borges |
Matthew Godin | DT | MI | 3 stars | 5.7 | May 12 | 27 | NR | 7 | Fred Jackson |
Kaleb Ringer | LB | OH | 3 stars | 5.7 | Apr 12 | 11 | NR | 25 | Mark Smith |
Caleb Stacey | OL | OH | 3 stars | 5.7 | Mar 26 | 12 | NR | 22 | Mark Smith |
Anthony Standifer | DB | IL | 3 stars | 5.7 | Jun 01 | 37 | NR | 14 | Jeff Hecklinski |
A.J. Williams | TE | OH | 3 stars | 5.7 | Apr 22 | 16 | NR | 28 | Mark Smith |
Mario Ojemudia | DE | MI | 3 stars | 5.6 | May 7 | NR | NR | 14 | Fred Jackson |
Jeremy Clark# | DB | KY | 3 stars | 5.5 | Jun 24 | NR | NR | 6 | (Camp offer) |
Sione Houma | RB | UT | 0 stars | NR | Jul 25 | NR | NR | NR | Dan Ferrigno |
# = entering as grayshirt
By the way those are end-of-cycle rankings so it's not an exact match, e.g. Newsome was at one point rated the 20th player in the country by Rivals and was around 40-something by mid-summer. For our purposes it gets the point across: RR had some great gifts for the tree had they hung on, but still needed a lot of stocking stuffers.
Both coaches worked quickly to over-address positions of the greatest whiffs in years previous. Rodriguez got two of the top QBs in the country signed on, and had 5-stars or near enough at cornerback and DT. To the groans of smurf-haters everywhere, RR also had secured two more scat-backs and another (highly rated) slot receiver. Schofield was considered a good system OT; Isaiah Bell was a S/LB sleeper adored by one Ohio site but not the national scouts. Hoke meanwhile has killed, already having secured five OL commitments, three of whom are already past the "just a 4-star" threshold, and also swept the region in LB recruits, faring almost as well in DEs. Hoke's clearly got the advantage.
You'll note a lot of the 2008 haul never made it to campus. The 3-9 year was partly to blame of course, however as of late July 2008 many of RR's guys were soft. Will Campbell (right) committed to Carr in the middle of his junior (2007) year and remained a softie; he eventually de-committed in September only to re-up after a long and pulmonarily destructive flirtation with SEC schools. Bryce committed but looking around; he lost interest in October, presumably after many sleepless nights spent thinking of Nick Sheridan passing to him. Newsome was entertaining a camp visit at Virginia Tech this time three years ago, but turned it down and sounded like he was rock. He and Beaver gave up around the same time (right after you mentally gave up on the 2008 offense) and were immediately replaced by Tate and the hard pursuit of some supersonic kid in Florida who Urban wanted badly and nobody thought was a QB.
And then there's DeQuinta Jones, a 4-star DT from Louisiana who just kind of randomly pretended to commit to M without visiting, kind of the way that my buddy once announced that he was in love with the hottest girl in camp, whom we will call L.H.*, so that other girls in camp would take him more seriously. If this seems at all weird to you welcome to the wild and wacky world of Louisiana recruiting; bring a funny hat. The DeQuinta/LH gambit worked surprisingly well in both cases, except not for the faux commit-ee.
If you take away the guys who de-committed from RR's 2009 class it looks more like this…
…and it's Hoke like whoa. A bad year in 2011 and maybe his class starts falling apart as well, but it is important to note that nobody on that list above is considered soft except the grayshirted Jeremy Clark** if he gets something better than high-ish MAC offers, whereas that label applied to half of RR's first full class by July.
Stick their late additions to the hybrid class with their first-year recruiting by July and you get:
Not hugely dissimilar except that Hoke's got a lot more 3-stars and is missing four blue chips. In a worst case scenario the 2011 team starts losing a la 2008, while Ohio State's dancing along having gotten off virtually scot-free from the most obvious case of Failure to Monitor and Lack of Institutional Control I've ever witnessed in 20 years of college football fandom, and Hoke's Goodwill Ride of 2011 comes to a crashing, sudden stop, and then entire position groups are destroyed, and the 2012 guys start decomitting and the university hires Freakbass to rebrand us. If all those things don't happen, well, this probably turns out better than the last time.
Brian penned a State of Recruiting article in early August '08 that's worth a look-back so you can remember your comparable state of mind. How does that compare to now? And I didn't even make you compare "Denard: The Upperclassman Years" to "gee I hope this Sheridan guy really is a Basanez."
--Summer Glau
P.S. Don't miss the next exciting episode of 'Alphas' on Sci-Fi!
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* Fellow period Tamakwans will agree that this wasn't debatable. Maaaybe a few votes for E.C. or L.C. (EDIT: L.B.!!! HT Schram, Schram, Schneider, & Luria)
** He'll get a YMRMFSPA Charles Stewart if he makes it, but the Phillip Brackins comparison is so go, unless we decide you can all remember Eric Rosel.
The Clans. This is an awesome post that you must rush to read right now drop everything. Look:
You want to know where you fit. Everyone does. Everyone thinks they're a fierce pragmatist. Seriously, check the comments.
Mike Hart is the master. If Mike Hart is serious about going into coaching after his NFL career is done and eventually returning to Michigan, he's already got the bit about expertly defusing tricky questions down pat. Via a recent radio appearance:
"I think that any Michigan man that would've came in would be hard to be mad at because I think people have been complaining so bad these last three years that – 'Hey, we want a Michigan guy here. We need a Michigan guy. Rich-Rod doesn't respect the traditions.' (For) guys that have been saying those things, Coach Hoke was the perfect hire because he brings back that Michigan legacy."
I eagerly await the day he's cut. No offense, Mr. Hart, it's just… you know.
and the hoke-footed balloonMan whistles far and wee
Needs moar tremendous.
Not much of substance, but I'm not a big fan of the Vick comparison. When Vick got to the NFL he was shepherded in a run-heavy, simple system that wasn't very good. It takes time, and while Denard will progress I think it'll take more than a year. There will be a larger post on this later.
Calling Brandon a liar. Is what LSU's doing:
"He was offered more than 4 million to become the Michigan coach," LSU Board of Supervisors member Stanley Jacobs said Friday. "When he said no, they came back and offered him more. And he said no again."
Miles is apparently set to sign an extension that does not raise his salary. It'll be interesting to see what happens to the buyout. Miles has made a lot of money already but seemed to be lacking in job security early this year when LSU was surviving by the skin of its teeth. He may not have leveraged the Michigan job into more money, but he may have leveraged it into making it very difficult to get rid of him if LSU fails to live up to expectations next year, which is totally going to happen because LSU fans are expecting a national title.
I can see Miles doing this because he's 57—a primary reason he should never have been considered for the job in the first place—and knows this is his last head coaching job at a premiere school. He's probably eyeing retirement in the not too distant future and would like to make sure he chooses the "when."
As for the Michigan side of things, I'm not sure what to believe. It would be stupid for Brandon to waste time playing footsie with Miles when he had no intention of tabling a serious offer, but it would be stupid to table a serious offer. So I guess it doesn't matter. The LSU guys think this game of semantics is silly:
"Well, if Hoke was his first choice, he could've signed him up prior to ever talking to Les or Harbaugh," LSU chancellor Mike Martin said. "Don't you think?"
One way or the other, they're right.
You are heartfelt but uninformed, LSU chancellor. Brandon, meanwhile, set to compounding his arrogant father-knows-best press conference by putting this out later in the day:
"I got inundated with advice," he admits on WDFN-AM 1130. "A lot of people with very good hearts, and who care a lot, and with a lot of passion, came at me with their point of view. And I respect that, and I certainly tried to show them a courteous reply whenever I could because those passionate people are what make Michigan football special.
"However, most of them are very uninformed, and in most cases, they were recommending people they had never met. Or been in the same room with. Or ever had a conversation with. And interviewing a candidate for an important job like this is about sitting down and talking about specific issues, and getting to know them at a completely different level than blogs and statistics and images that, in many cases, are shaped by PR more than reality. [ed: the noise you heard was my irony meter exploding.]
"So, I didn't pay a lot of attention to those recommendations – even though they came from people with good hearts, they just weren't all that helpful."
This falls in line with Brandon's comments during the press conference that "all that glitters is not gold" when it comes to some coaches and that "the hype or the PR doesn't match the real person." To me, that came off really, really poorly. I was pretty sure everyone was in the same boat—I especially liked the bit at the end that signaled the program's return to barely tolerating its fans—but apparently not. The Wolverine Blog says to give credit to Brandon for "putting himself on the line," which he's certainly done by making his decision on explicitly faith-based grounds. I'm not so much with the crediting bit.
One, attempting to paint the internet's problem with Brady Hoke as a matter of "statistics" is… well, the main statistics people have problems with are "record: 47-50" and "age: 52," neither of which is a particularly advanced metric.
Two: does this relate in any way to Brandon's passive-aggressive comments about Jim Harbaugh when Rodriguez was fired? It doesn't seem very leader-y to take shots at the people you interviewed and didn't hire. It implies everyone other than Brady Hoke is not fit to coach Michigan, and attempts to dismiss an awful lot of evidence that suggests Hoke is kind of a desperate hire by saying "you have not sat across the room from this man."
It's not reassuring to envision Brandon's interview process. Braves and Birds blows up this line of reasoning from Brandon real good; suffice it to say that Brady Hoke would have to be vastly worse than expected to sink to the level of Brandon's performance over the last two months. It looks like we'll have tangible evidence of that in two weeks.
EXPLICIT SECTION: Here's the tedious section in which I explain this is not a criticism of Brady Hoke but the athletic director that hired him at a terrible time for not particularly good reasons and told anyone who said words to that effect that they were "uninformed."
I expect Hoke will have enough success at Michigan to stick around a while; when he retires whether he was a good idea is likely to be a matter of heated and interminable debate. I hope I am wrong and am willing to give Hoke the proverbial "chance." I hope that Dave Brandon sets the world record for smug pats on the back when Hoke retires. For the record.
BONUS: Expect to read this disclaimer dozens of times!
Etc.: Brabbs gets good news re: cancer. Indiana: ugh. Rodriguez stuff goes for ridiculous sums.
Way back in the paleolithic era I swapped my blogger theme out for a pink, kitten-centric one and never had the sense to screencap it. Someone else did but I can't recall where and now I think that may be lost to the mists of time. In an effort to prevent any further hysterics from falling down the memory hole, here's a compilation of Six Zero's banners from the last week or so of our lives.
First Rodriguez got the axe and it was Harbaugh to the rescue:
Then Harbaugh exploded a la Scanners and rumors got weirdly gumbo-shaped:
Then Miles fell through and the only options were Brady Hoke and the ghost of John Gruden:
And this is the current banner, complete with the cheesy pun because if we've learned anything in the past ten days it's good lord Brady Hoke has the most wince-generating last name in the history of newspaper headlines:
May we all return to this post and laugh when Hoke goes 5-1 against Ohio State and the blog puts together a Brady Hoke statue drive.
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