[Joseph Dressler/MGoBlog]

A five-minute scoring drought. A struggling star player. Iffy post play and equally iffy substitution patterns.

Michigan charged out to an early lead against Notre Dame and controlled much of the game. In the end, however, a familiar set of problems cost the Wolverines the game and capped the season in unfortunately fitting fashion.

Zak Irvin couldn't recreate his recent late-game magic, missing the potential game-tying three-pointer from the top of the key after a discombobulated final possession. Irvin finished the game 4/16 from the field and 1/9 from long range. Derrick Walton temporarily broke out of his shooting slump with a 4/7 first half and looked on his way to a great all-around game; he crashed to a halt in the second, going 0/6 from the field over the final 20 minutes.

The short version, via FiveThirtyEight.

For Notre Dame, forwards Zach Auguste and Bonzie Colson each went 4/5 from the field. Michigan's best counter to them in the post, Moe Wagner, hit all three of his shots but played only eight minutes; a questionable charge call for his fourth foul swung the momentum and quite possibly the game in favor of the Irish. The foul negated a Wagner layup that would've given Michigan a two-point lead with 5:39 to play; when Wagner finally reentered with 1:01 on the clock, Notre Dame had a three-point lead and the ball. In the interim, Mark Donnal blew a critical layup.

Clutch late shots by VJ Beachem (game-high 18 points, 7/7 FG) on the perimeter and Colson in the paint gave the Irish the margin they needed to advance. Michigan will be left to wonder: What if John Beilein gave Wagner a longer leash or at least played him ahead of Ricky Doyle? What if Irvin and Walton could play well in the same game? What if MAAR shifted to the point instead of sticking at the two while the team went two scoreless minutes with Andrew Dakich running the offense? What if that official called a block? We now have a long offseason to ponder the answers.

On the plus side, Michigan didn't lose to a 15-seed today.

WELL MICHIGAN STATE LOST TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. THAT WAS FUNNY.

[clears throat] and now on to the evening games:

Thomas Walkup

Third Window

7. Wisconsin – 10. Pitt (6:50, TNT)

In one of the better games of the day, Wisconsin takes on Pittsburgh in Greg Gard’s first game as the head coach of the Badgers. UW had been playing extremely well until the Big Ten Tournament, where they dropped a surprising L against Nebraska. Wisconsin is the type of team that can grind it out against Pitt: Nigel Hayes, Vitto Brown, and Ethan Happ are a powerful front line, and all three can score from multiple places on the floor. Wisconsin’s calling card is still its impressive defense – the Badgers actually have allowed a very high % on opponents’ three-pointers, which would suggest that their defensive efficiency is weighed down by that randomness. It’s still kind of hard to get a grasp on Wisconsin because of their iffy guard play, but they should play better than they did against Nebraska.

Pitt was a middling team in the ACC this year, but between a good non-conference showing and a few solid wins in conference play (including three wins over former Big East rival Syracuse), they made it safely into the field. Contrary to what you’d expect from a Jaime Dixon team, Pitt is actually better on offense than they are on defense; predictably, their strength on the offensive end is derived from a strong collective offensive rebounding presence led by Michael Young and Sheldon Jeter in the frontcourt. The Panthers’ best offensive option is swingman Jamel Artis, though Young is definitely an able sidekick.

As far as 7/10 games go, this one is pretty even – Kenpom gives Wisconsin a 56% chance of advancing to the next round to (probably) face Xavier.

[After the JUMP: the rest of the 1st round]

Tourney Previews Have a Sponsor (via Seth): My good friend Matt Demorest has built himself a nice little niche mortgage business in Southeast Michigan. I had a rather complicated FHA refinance for my house last fall, and despite that it a) took less of my time than filling out my bracket, b) cost half of what I paid to do our original loan, and, c) saved me so much the refi's already paid for itself.

Last Friday I then watched him blow everything he's made from advertising here so far on a signed Jim Harbaugh Ann Arbor Pioneer helmet. If you're buying a house around here, or if you've got one and have "yeah I should look at getting in on these rates" rattling around in your head, give him a ring. His ticket offer is still going so if you close you can use them for football tickets this fall.

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Notre Dame point guard Demetrius Jackson is a fringe lottery prospect. [AP photo]

THE US

Since this has somehow been a question I've had to answer multiple times: no, Caris LeVert is not playing tomorrow. Unless John Beilein gives Moe Wagner a more prominent role (please?), the rotation will be the usual.

THE STAKES

Rivalry trash-talking rights and a spot in the second round on Sunday, most likely facing three-seed West Virginia.

KenPom gives Notre Dame a 55% chance to win, putting the spread at two points. FiveThirtyEight isn't as high on Michigan's upset chances, pegging the Irish as 66% favorites. The Vegas line opened at ND -1.5 and has since moved to ND -3.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos.	#	Name	Yr.	Ht./Wt.	%Min	%Poss	SIBMIHHAT
G	11	Demetrius Jackson	Jr.	6'1, 201	86	24	Kinda
Excellent passer, good finisher for a PG, iffy outside shooter, high steal rate.
G	32	Steve Vasturia	Jr.	6'5, 212	90	18	No
51/36/86 shooting splits, can be turnover-prone when he drives.
F	3	VJ Beachem	Jr.	6'8, 200	76	16	No
Takes more threes than twos, hits 43% of them. Despite size, not a rebounder.
F	35	Bonzie Colson	So.	6'5, 225	65	22	Very
Plays big. Excellent rebounder and shot-blocker, gets most of points in the paint.
F	30	Zach Auguste	Sr.	6'10, 245	74	27	Very
Outstanding rebounder, decent shot-blocker, good finisher who draws fouls.
F	4	Matt Ryan	Fr.	6'8, 217	39	15	No
Extreme Just A Shooter™ making 38% of his threes.
G	0	Rex Pflueger	Fr.	6'6, 198	28	11	Kinda
Barely utilized when on the court. 12/27 2P, 8/25 3P on the season.
G	5	Matt Farrell	So.	6'1, 175	21	14	Yes
Low-usage, turnover-prone PG with bad shooting numbers. Doesn't play much.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]