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that equation doesn't fit this situation "Historically" teams in that situation don't have Peyton Manning at QB. I've heard arguements on both sides of this, but don't see how one should rely on "historical stats" when they have what's going on currently in front of them. Talking this from the BS report podcast, but Peyton was off the whole game. Their previous drive was helped by at 30 yard PI call that was bull. He didn't have Clark in, meaning that creepy kid's advice from the spring commercial would do him no good.
Your optimistic friend should Your optimistic friend should be commended for his courage