Great news with Caris returning. Even if we don't get Jaylen Brown, will be interesting to see how the minutes breakdown next year. To try to do a prediction, I think you have to differentiate between spots 1-4 and the 5 spot.
5 spot = 40 minutes split between Doyle, Donnal and Wilson
Let's say Doyle gets 20 minutes and Donnal and Wilson each get 10.
1-4 spots = 160 minutes split between Walton, Levert, Irvin, Dawkins, Spike, MAAR, Robinson, Chatman and Wagner.
I think it is safe to say that Walton, Levert and Irvin will each play at least 30 minutes per game. That's 90 total minutes.
I also think it is safe to expect Spike (assuming full recovery) and Dawkins to play at least 20 minutes a game. That brings us to 130 minutes.
That leaves 30 minutes per night for MAAR, Robinson, Chatman and Wagner. Robinson sat out last year due to transfer, so he no longer has the redshirt option. But it may be in the best interest of the program to redshirt 1 or more of the other 3 guys, rather than have them only play a few minutes per night.
A friend of mine who is EXTREMELY knowledgeable (almost became an NFL scout) and is a huge Miami fan had the following to say about Fisch:
The best part about Michigan hiring him for that specific role is that you likely won't have to be exposed to his greatest flaw.
At Miami, Fisch was an absolutely dreadful evaluator of high school quarterbacks. Kevin Olsen (Greg's brother who was not only an off-the-field headcase, but also dreadful in practice to the point where he would've been third string this year if he wasn't kicked off the team), Gray Crow, and Preston Dewey (career ended prematurely due to concussions) were the three signal callers he coveted and ended up bringing to Miami. His successor as Miami's OC, James Coley, is the complete opposite in that regard since he's exceptional at identifying top QB talent early and getting them to commit. With Harbaugh there, I assume he'll be the one attracting the top-notch QB recruits, which should minimize or completely eliminate Fisch's questionable history in this area.
But Fisch, to his credit, did a very impressive job working with Jacory Harris and Stephen Morris from 2011-2012. Before Fisch arrived, Harris was a turnover machine who had the mentality of "fuck it, I'm throwing deep into double or triple coverage" under Mark Whipple. Fisch was cited as a major factor behind Harris' drastic reduction in turnovers (threw 32 total INTs from 2009-2010, but cut that total to 9 in 2011 under Fisch).
Fisch specifically did a great job with Morris in terms of mechanics. I, at one point, raved about Morris on this board after his junior season and believed he had NFL potential (SI's Doug Farrar and others felt the same). Once Fisch left, Morris' mechanics went to shit and he looked like a completely different quarterback. Losing Fisch destroyed his development and set him back significantly.
Fisch was regarded as a strong X's and O's OC with highly suspect evaluation skills of high school talent. Hope he works out at Michigan.
I'm working on a letter of my own to the Schlissel and the regents. If you don't mind, I'll probably use portions of yours as you very eloquently discuss some of the problems.
I did some googling as to whether or not medical redshirts count against scholarship limits. Ironically, the best answer I found was a post on this blog from a few years ago regarding the Gardner situation. Basically, Hatch needs a medical EXEMPTION, not a medical a redshirt. Medical redshirts count against the scholarship limits, medical exemptions do not.
Medical exemptions are where an athlete sustains an injury that is career ending. Then the school can still pay for their education but they don't count against the scholarship limit. It would seem Hatch would be eligible for this, since he could barely get on the court at the high school level 2 years after his accident. But I really don't know. Here's the link http://mgoblog.com/diaries/medical-redshirt-vs-medical-exemption-overview
I don't know if I can stomach watching this Michigan team anymore. Borges is incompetent. Mattison seems to be regressing. And the team seems like it quit on Hoke. Yes, we're 6-2. But I can't see us finishing the year with less than 4 losses, and 5 (or more) seems much more likely. (We'll have to be extremely lucky to go 2-1 over the next 3 games -- Nebraska, @Iowa, @Northwestern -- and we have no shot against OSU. And then, of course there’s a bowl game against an SEC team.)
That means after a first year where everything broke perfectly, Hoke will have back-to-back 5+ loss seasons. He'll also be 4-5 against OSU, ND and MSU. (In fact, Borges’s offense has never scored more than 14 points against MSU -- in that instance 7 came in garbage time – and, aside from that garbage time TD, has not reached the end zone since the first possession of the 2011 game.) What’s more, in 3 years he will have never beaten a quality opponent in their house. Every negative thing I said/wrote about the Hoke/Borges hires seems to be coming to fruition.
I keep telling myself that they are another year or two away. That the next recruiting class will be the one that turns the tide. And maybe it will, at least from a talent standpoint. But I feel like no matter our talent level, I’ll never be able to trust Hoke and Borges (particularly the latter) in a big game. (Shockingly, Mattison seems to be moving in that direction as well, though I'm still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.) We don’t seem to know how to utilize our talent on offense, don’t manage the game well, can’t handle teams who go up-tempo and consistently get out game-planned. (At halftime Saturday, Hoke said MSU did a bunch of things they weren’t expecting. How does that happen after a bye week, in a rivalry game? That statement alone is enough to make me lose faith in the staff. Sadly, this was not an isolated incident of incompetence.)
All of this begs the question, what is the upside under this coaching staff? Prior to this season, I looked at our depth chart by class and future schedules and predicted that we’d be playing in the 2015-16 national championship game. Now, I feel like no matter who is on our team we are always going to have 1-2 games per year where we get severely out-coached. If those games coincide with match-ups against teams with decent talent (which they almost certainly will), it means no matter how well we recruit we’ll never be an elite program. That is a horrible feeling.
I know there is no chance Brandon gets rid of Hoke. And, after only giving RichRod 3 years, I feel like you have to give Hoke more time if for no other reason than continuity and stability. But either Hoke or Brandon has to come to their sense and realize Borges has to go. We have no chance as long as he’s running the offense.
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Great news with Caris returning. Even if we don't get Jaylen Brown, will be interesting to see how the minutes breakdown next year. To try to do a prediction, I think you have to differentiate between spots 1-4 and the 5 spot.
5 spot = 40 minutes split between Doyle, Donnal and Wilson
Let's say Doyle gets 20 minutes and Donnal and Wilson each get 10.
1-4 spots = 160 minutes split between Walton, Levert, Irvin, Dawkins, Spike, MAAR, Robinson, Chatman and Wagner.
I think it is safe to say that Walton, Levert and Irvin will each play at least 30 minutes per game. That's 90 total minutes.
I also think it is safe to expect Spike (assuming full recovery) and Dawkins to play at least 20 minutes a game. That brings us to 130 minutes.
That leaves 30 minutes per night for MAAR, Robinson, Chatman and Wagner. Robinson sat out last year due to transfer, so he no longer has the redshirt option. But it may be in the best interest of the program to redshirt 1 or more of the other 3 guys, rather than have them only play a few minutes per night.
A friend of mine who is EXTREMELY knowledgeable (almost became an NFL scout) and is a huge Miami fan had the following to say about Fisch:
The best part about Michigan hiring him for that specific role is that you likely won't have to be exposed to his greatest flaw.
At Miami, Fisch was an absolutely dreadful evaluator of high school quarterbacks. Kevin Olsen (Greg's brother who was not only an off-the-field headcase, but also dreadful in practice to the point where he would've been third string this year if he wasn't kicked off the team), Gray Crow, and Preston Dewey (career ended prematurely due to concussions) were the three signal callers he coveted and ended up bringing to Miami. His successor as Miami's OC, James Coley, is the complete opposite in that regard since he's exceptional at identifying top QB talent early and getting them to commit. With Harbaugh there, I assume he'll be the one attracting the top-notch QB recruits, which should minimize or completely eliminate Fisch's questionable history in this area.
But Fisch, to his credit, did a very impressive job working with Jacory Harris and Stephen Morris from 2011-2012. Before Fisch arrived, Harris was a turnover machine who had the mentality of "fuck it, I'm throwing deep into double or triple coverage" under Mark Whipple. Fisch was cited as a major factor behind Harris' drastic reduction in turnovers (threw 32 total INTs from 2009-2010, but cut that total to 9 in 2011 under Fisch).
Fisch specifically did a great job with Morris in terms of mechanics. I, at one point, raved about Morris on this board after his junior season and believed he had NFL potential (SI's Doug Farrar and others felt the same). Once Fisch left, Morris' mechanics went to shit and he looked like a completely different quarterback. Losing Fisch destroyed his development and set him back significantly.
Fisch was regarded as a strong X's and O's OC with highly suspect evaluation skills of high school talent. Hope he works out at Michigan.
I'm working on a letter of my own to the Schlissel and the regents. If you don't mind, I'll probably use portions of yours as you very eloquently discuss some of the problems.
I think he is an exceptional coach.
Curious why you think Sumlin is less attainable than Gundy or Shaw?
Also, very intrigued by Jones and Graham. Would love to hear more detailed thoughts on them.
What about Chris Petersen? Are you ruling him out because he's only been at UW one year?
Thanks!
Hey, just checking in, I followed the link and made the deposit yesterday afternoon, but haven't received an email with the preview mag.
I was confused by this as well.
I did some googling as to whether or not medical redshirts count against scholarship limits. Ironically, the best answer I found was a post on this blog from a few years ago regarding the Gardner situation. Basically, Hatch needs a medical EXEMPTION, not a medical a redshirt. Medical redshirts count against the scholarship limits, medical exemptions do not.
Medical exemptions are where an athlete sustains an injury that is career ending. Then the school can still pay for their education but they don't count against the scholarship limit. It would seem Hatch would be eligible for this, since he could barely get on the court at the high school level 2 years after his accident. But I really don't know. Here's the link http://mgoblog.com/diaries/medical-redshirt-vs-medical-exemption-overview
I don't know if I can stomach watching this Michigan team anymore. Borges is incompetent. Mattison seems to be regressing. And the team seems like it quit on Hoke. Yes, we're 6-2. But I can't see us finishing the year with less than 4 losses, and 5 (or more) seems much more likely. (We'll have to be extremely lucky to go 2-1 over the next 3 games -- Nebraska, @Iowa, @Northwestern -- and we have no shot against OSU. And then, of course there’s a bowl game against an SEC team.)
That means after a first year where everything broke perfectly, Hoke will have back-to-back 5+ loss seasons. He'll also be 4-5 against OSU, ND and MSU. (In fact, Borges’s offense has never scored more than 14 points against MSU -- in that instance 7 came in garbage time – and, aside from that garbage time TD, has not reached the end zone since the first possession of the 2011 game.) What’s more, in 3 years he will have never beaten a quality opponent in their house. Every negative thing I said/wrote about the Hoke/Borges hires seems to be coming to fruition.
I keep telling myself that they are another year or two away. That the next recruiting class will be the one that turns the tide. And maybe it will, at least from a talent standpoint. But I feel like no matter our talent level, I’ll never be able to trust Hoke and Borges (particularly the latter) in a big game. (Shockingly, Mattison seems to be moving in that direction as well, though I'm still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.) We don’t seem to know how to utilize our talent on offense, don’t manage the game well, can’t handle teams who go up-tempo and consistently get out game-planned. (At halftime Saturday, Hoke said MSU did a bunch of things they weren’t expecting. How does that happen after a bye week, in a rivalry game? That statement alone is enough to make me lose faith in the staff. Sadly, this was not an isolated incident of incompetence.)
All of this begs the question, what is the upside under this coaching staff? Prior to this season, I looked at our depth chart by class and future schedules and predicted that we’d be playing in the 2015-16 national championship game. Now, I feel like no matter who is on our team we are always going to have 1-2 games per year where we get severely out-coached. If those games coincide with match-ups against teams with decent talent (which they almost certainly will), it means no matter how well we recruit we’ll never be an elite program. That is a horrible feeling.
I know there is no chance Brandon gets rid of Hoke. And, after only giving RichRod 3 years, I feel like you have to give Hoke more time if for no other reason than continuity and stability. But either Hoke or Brandon has to come to their sense and realize Borges has to go. We have no chance as long as he’s running the offense.